Luck vs. Status in Figure Skating

[Kwanford Wife]

Since the NCAA tourny always causes major arguements in my household, I thought I'd pose this question... in figure skating where sometimes its better to be lucky than the best, who are the luckiest skaters in the modern era (meaning post the Wack!) Please feel free to include commentary on your choices and "the best" who still pulled it off are eligable...

My list...

Jeffery Buttle - 08 Worlds - mainly because the men's program was sucha splat fest that I'm not sure if he'd won if the other skaters had slept vs. partied the night before (because for some only a hangover would explain their inability to skate, jump, rotate & land...)

Mao - 08 Worlds - its the figure skating world championships, not the world series... but that was a beautiful slide into home plate

Michelle Kwan - 02(???) Skate Canada (???) even when its the Kween, I can't stand when the upcomer (Sarah Hughes) is perfect but the champ falls and still gets the nod...

Sarah Hughes - 02 Olympics - gotta love great timing...

Tat & that guy she skates with - 06 games - yes, they were the favorites going in, but had S/Z been healthy she'd be smug with a silver vs. a gold

Kimmie - 06 Worlds - difficult program and great performance, but I was more shocked that Sasha didn't win vs. Kimmie winning...

Irina - 06 Olympics - no, she didn't win, but she didn't deserve the bronze, Fumie did. The same could be said for Sasha's silver...

That's my list, what's yours?

 

[floskate]

How was Mao lucky? She wiped out but still managed to reel of 6 triples, two 3-3's and a beautiful program to boot. Had she not fallen she would just have won by a bigger margin

 

[Mathman]

Michelle Kwan - 02(???) Skate Canada (???) even when its the Kween, I can't stand when the upcomer (Sarah Hughes) is perfect but the champ falls and still gets the nod...

At Skate Canada (2001-2002 season) Michelle, in panic mode after parting compay with her coach, tried a triple flip / triple toe (or was it triple flip / triple loop?) combination for the first time in her life. She fell and finished third. Sarah Hughes won and Irina Slutskaya was second.

The week before, at Skate America, some people think that Sarah ought to have won over an imperfect program by Michelle. But I don't think so. Michelle was better.

It was the 2000-2001 Skate America where Sarah skated well, Michelle didn't, but Michelle won anyway. If you think that Michelle was gifted, you have an ally in Sasha Cohen. Sasha famously told Sarah, in front of Michelle, that she (Sarah) was robbed.

For me it's a tough call. Michelle was so much better than Sarah in overall skating skills that I can't really fault the judges on that one.

One way a skater can be lucky is if his main competition has to withdraw with an injury. Stephane Lambiel won the 2005 World Championship only because Plushenko, leading handily after the short program, could not take the ice in the long.

Allisa Czisny got a chance to compete at Skate America and also Skate Canada in 2004 as a last minute replacement for Michelle. She got silver at Skate America and gold at Skate Canada -- her greatest achievement in skating. (So far! )

 

[attyfan]

Sarah's winning the OGM was largely luck-- simply because she was fourth after the SP and so, she didn't "control her own destiny" -- with MK and IS fully capable of beating her, no matter how well she skated. She needed to win the FS and have Michelle come in no higher than third -- and that is precisely what happened.

If, for example, Irina's SLC free skate matched her '05 Worlds skate, then Irina would have won the OGM; MK would have a second silver, despite the fall (0.5 factored placement in the SP; 3.0 in the free == total 3.5); while Sarah would only have bronze. If, OTOH, Irina melted down, then MK would have gold (first in SP: second in FS); Sarah silver; and Irina (or even Sasha) would get bronze.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

It was the 2000-2001 Skate America where Sarah skated well, Michelle didn't, but Michelle won anyway. If you think that Michelle was gifted, you have an ally in Sasha Cohen. Sasha famously told Sarah, in front of Michelle, that she (Sarah) was robbed.

For me it's a tough call. Michelle was so much better than Sarah in overall skating skills that I can't really fault the judges on that one.

Thanks for the clarification Mathman - I can never remember the specific events... As much as it pains me, I still agree with Sasha... But I simply have an aversion to falls in programs... and Sarah was great at that competition. That and the fact that I believe Sarah Hughes to be the luckiest thing ever to lace up...

 

[Mathman]

If, for example, Irina's SLC free skate matched her '05 Worlds skate, then Irina would have won the OGM; MK would have a second silver, despite the fall (0.5 factored placement in the SP; 3.0 in the free == total 3.5); while Sarah would only have bronze. If, OTOH, Irina melted down, then MK would have gold (first in SP: second in FS); Sarah silver; and Irina (or even Sasha) would get bronze.

Then again, at 2000 Worlds, after the qualifying round and the short program it stood Butyrskaya, Sluskaya, Kwan. kwan beat Butyrskaya in the LP, then it all came down to Slute. The only way for Michelle to win was for Irina to precisely insert herself between Maria and Michelle.

She did, and Bob's your uncle!

As far as Michelle's career is concerned, when you skate at the top level for a decade, it's bound to happen. Sometimes you win something that you should lose. Sometimes you lose when you should win. All you can do is keep on truckin'.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

How was Mao lucky? She wiped out but still managed to reel of 6 triples, two 3-3's and a beautiful program to boot. Had she not fallen she would just have won by a bigger margin

Mao won despite her slide and that's lucky... and I'm sure she'd agree with that - no champ wants to win ugly...

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Then again, at 2000 Worlds, after the qualifying round and the short program it stood Butyrskaya, Sluskaya, Kwan. kwan beat Butyrskaya in the LP, then it all came down to Slute. The only way for Michelle to win was for Irina to precisely insert herself between Maria and Michelle.

She did, and Bob's your uncle!

As far as Michelle's career is concerned, when you skate at the top level for a decade, it's bound to happen. Sometimes you win something that you should lose. Sometimes you lose when you should win. All you can do is keep on truckin'.

Absolutely and I loved it when she did... all hail the Kwan, keeper of the light. But like all uber Kwan fans, I tend to remember her "less than" performances more accurately because her "greater than" programs were the standard, not the exception...

 

[Bennett]

Jeffery Buttle - 08 Worlds - mainly because the men's program was sucha splat fest that I'm not sure if he'd won if the other skaters had slept vs. partied the night before (because for some only a hangover would explain their inability to skate, jump, rotate & land...)

Let me remind you that he scored very high because of two clean programs with two 3As in LP, one 3A in SP, jump combinations, level 4 spins, and level 3 steps. Except for final lutz in LP that got GOE = 0, he got plus GOE on all of the other elements. He earned 245.17, the third highest score in ISU history under the CoP system. It was not by luck. He earned that deserving title.

The pre-event favorite, Takahashi, once scored 264 with a two-quad program at 4CC and broke the world record. But in other competitions this season, he scored 228.97 at 2007 SA, 234.22 at 2007 NHK, and 238.94 at 2007 GPF.

Joubert scored 240.85 at 2007Worlds, 213.62 at 2007 SC, and 219.45 at 2008 Euro.

Lambiel scored 233.35 at 2007 Worlds, 192.22 at 2007 COC,
218.84 at 2007 CoR, 239.10 at 2007GPF, and 225.24 at Euro.

Tomas earned 226.25 at 2007 Worlds, 189.37 at TEB, 229.45 at 2007NHK, and 232.67 at Euro.

Johnny: 206.97 at 2007 Worlds, 231.78 at 2007COC, 229.96 at 2007 COR, and 216.16 at GPF.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Let me remind you that he scored very high because of two clean programs with two 3As in LP, one 3A in SP, jump combinations, level 4 spins, and level 3 steps. Except for final lutz in LP that got GOE = 0, he got plus GOE on all of the other elements. He earned 245.17, the third highest score in ISU history under the CoP system. It was not by luck. He earned that title.

Um... okay. And with all due respect, please let me remind you of a couple of things...

At Worlds 08 Buttle did an outstanding job and only ended up in the "lucky" column because the other men were horrific... other men who have realitively stable quads. Some with more than one. Some with level 4 steps. Some with level 4 spins. Some with the ability to skate clean in general. And most with the ability to push it when it counts and get the points necessary to win.

As for the comparative scores, I don't necessarily know if that always means as much as people imply... if the main three favorites: Takashi, Lambiel and Joubert, had skated even 75% to their ability, I'm pretty sure we'd be talking about the number of PBs and event overscoring... The numbers are judges' toys for determining outcomes, much like ordinal scoring, you do what needs to be done to ensure the podium reflects a reasonable outcome. That's one tradition that skating has perfected....teehee...

I'm glad Buttle won. I'm glad he won without his fake quad that drives me crazy. I'm glad he was fit enough to compete. But I still say he was lucky. And just like Sarah Hughes' gold medal, Buttle had the golden ticket when it counted... And sometimes that better than being the favorite.

 

[Bennett]

if the main three favorites: Takashi, Lambiel and Joubert, had skated even 75% to their ability, I'm pretty sure we'd be talking about the number of PBs and event overscoring...

Yes, sure. That's why he is saying that he would like to work on the quad in his program.

Having said that, however, do you remember many competitions in which all contenders did not make mistakes?

Although it was a regrettable event for Takahashi and Lambiel, Takahashi's nerve issue at big competitions and Lambiel's unclean programs were not unexpected. Despite being a fan of those two men, I do not particularly attribute their performances to bad luck.
Joubert hasn't had a two-quad program since 2006 GPF, either. He seems to have done his best at this Worlds considering how happy he was when he finished.

Jeff was lucky merely in a sense that he unexpectedly peaked at the right timing. Yet, that's attributable only to himself----his mental strength, hardworking, and better health----and to those who supported him.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I don't think the Men's Division was a splatfest. There were several top skaters who did not come up to their usual standards. Having bad days in any sport is not unusual. Splatfests, imo, come from skaters who can not do a particular element but try it anyway and again miss it. Think Weir's quad. Buttle on the other hand, came back from a miserable season to win overall. Some of the lesser skaters went beyond their usual standards and made top 10.

I wouldn't call the Ladies a bundle of great skating either but those things happen and I am not ready to write anyone male or female off who are working toward the Olympics.

Joe

 

[exNyer]

This thread from the OP sound more like:
" Skater who I don't care for that won over skaters that I like."

Winning after skating well with no mistakes is not luck. It is hard work paying off. These are all elite senior skaters with equal opportunities to win.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Yes, sure. That's why he is saying that he would like to work on the quad in his program.

Having said that, however, do you remember many competitions in which all contenders did not make mistakes?

Besides, Takahashi's nerve issue at big competitions and Lambiel's unclean programs were not unexpected. Joubert hasn't had a two-quad program since 2006 GPF, either. Joubert seems to have done his best at this Worlds considering how happy he was when he finished.

Jeff was lucky merely in a sense that he peaked at the right timing. Yet, that's attributable only to himself----his mental strength, hardworking, and better health----and to those who supported him.

You're missing my point, but that's ok. I've never said that Buttle didn't earn his title. What I'm saying is that the top men, for whatever reason, skated like they had a hangover... just bad bad bad... and for some it was flat out embarrassing. These weren't mistakes that cost one a medal - these were flat out melt downs... Joubert doing a single jump? Takahashi forgetting his jump number (not that it hasn't happened before)? Lambiel's spins not looking like a miracle on ice? Joubert doing a single jump??? The top men were a hot mess. And Buttle was lucky because of it...

As for his lack of a quad - I'm glad he was able to win without one - now maybe he won't insist on attempting one & then falling and ruining his always pretty skating...

(I also would remiss to add that his gold medal is his and his alone... those who supported him cannot take credit for his win... Root for him, support him and do whatever needs to be done, but its not fair to attribute his win to supporters & fans... sorry but that's a pet peeve of mine & that's coming from the ultimate uber fan...)

I don't think the Men's Division was a splatfest. There were several top skaters who did not come up to their usual standards. Having bad days in any sport is not unusual. Splatfests, imo, come from skaters who can not do a particular element but try it anyway and again miss it. Think Weir's quad. Buttle on the other hand, came back from a miserable season to win overall. Some of the lesser skaters went beyond their usual standards and made top 10.

I wouldn't call the Ladies a bundle of great skating either but those things happen and I am not ready to write anyone male or female off who are working toward the Olympics.

Joe

C'mon Joe - you know I'm a podium snob. I'm reforming, but competitions like Worlds send me over the edge...

This thread from the OP sound more like:
" Skater who I don't care for that won over skaters that I like."

Winning after skating well with no mistakes is not luck. It is hard work paying off. These are all elite senior skaters with equal opportunities to win.

How do you figure? I don't care who wins a competition... I do, however, care HOW skaters win... and I think we can clear up the notion of equality in skating by looking at those second group skaters who never have an opportunity to move up based on what the judges THINK the favorites are gonna put out on the ice... ala Yukari and Fumie. But that's neither here nor there... all skaters work hard and want to be successful and as a fan I sometimes giggle at how things work themselves out... Its called loving a Cinderella.

And why has this thread turned into arguements against the beauty of a lucky competitor? I LOVE when the underdog snatches the bone away from the champs - that's why we play the game... cause you never know how its gonna work out...

 

[Ladskater]

I don't like the sounds of this post. Jeff Buttle won his title through hard work, and his great artistry. He skated both his short and long programs perfectly. He was the best skater on that night.

Skaters work hard and any suggestion that they are "lucky" is pure ignorance.

 

[elye]

Buttle wasn't lucky he was the best because as Kurt says "He is the best skater on the planet!!"

 

[attyfan]

This thread from the OP sound more like:
" Skater who I don't care for that won over skaters that I like."

Winning after skating well with no mistakes is not luck. It is hard work paying off. These are all elite senior skaters with equal opportunities to win.

If winning was always "hard work paying off", then there would probably be a lot mroe ties -- simply because all the skaters (or at least almost all of them) work hard. That a skater can't win without hard work doesn't alter the fact that luck plays a role also.

 

[rtureck]

Mao - 08 Worlds - its the figure skating world championships, not the world series... but that was a beautiful slide into home plate

COP makes that possible

Michelle Kwan - 02(???) Skate Canada (???) even when its the Kween, I can't stand when the upcomer (Sarah Hughes) is perfect but the champ falls and still gets the nod...

SC 01, Sarah beat both MK and Irina. You must be thinking SA 01. Poor Sarah had to deal with
1. She felt she WUZ robbed
2. Sasha Cohen approached Sarah in front of MK and told Sarah she was robbed, and Sarah later made a comment that she felt so embarassed. Maybe Little Miss Cohen should pay some attention to how Jennifer Robinson was robbed (yeah completed a 7 triple program with a 3/3), and judges placed little miss cohen ahead.

Sarah Hughes - 02 Olympics - gotta love great timing...

agree

Tat & that guy she skates with - 06 games - yes, they were the favorites going in, but had S/Z been healthy she'd be smug with a silver vs. a gold

My heart broke

Kimmie - 06 Worlds - difficult program and great performance, but I was more shocked that Sasha didn't win vs. Kimmie winning...

Actually, I expect Cohen not win gold. She spent the time in b/w Torino and Calgary in Hollywood attending B list parties

Irina - 06 Olympics - no, she didn't win, but she didn't deserve the bronze, Fumie did. The same could be said for Sasha's silver...

ITA

 

[blue dog]

If winning was always "hard work paying off", then there would probably be a lot mroe ties -- simply because all the skaters (or at least almost all of them) work hard. That a skater can't win without hard work doesn't alter the fact that luck plays a role also.

I agree. I'd say almost all the skaters work hard. Sometimes, luck does play a role in their win. Tanja Szewczenko was one of the hardest workers in skating--and luck just wasn't on her side.

We all understand that Jeff does work hard, but his working hard didn't make Brian miss his lutz in the short, or get a vocals deduction (now that is just plain bad luck for Brian).

We commend Jeff on his hard work, but he was lucky at these Worlds (and about time, too that Lady Luck was on Jeff's side).

 

[silver.blades]

Luck playes a part in every sporting competiton. If it was about talent and hard work the best athletes and teams would always win. Every win at every competition can be attributed to a combination of luck, talent and hard work. Without luck there's no way that Michelle Kwan would have dominated for so many years, yes she had the talent and work ethic, but she was relativly injery free, which could be called luck. Jeff's world title came because he skated his best when it counted and others didn't. Emanuel Sandu beat Plushenko at the GPF because Plushenko did to many combinations. The outcome is always based partly on chance. Yes more talented skaters with good work ethic will win more often, but those qualities just increse the probablility of winning, they don't garentee it.
Therefore every out come is partialy luck, because there is always someone out there better than the winner.