Luck vs. Status in Figure Skating

[Bennett]

Statistically speaking, many of the wins can be considered to be just by chance or error. Many wins would fail to fall into the 95% or even 90% confidence interval. I doubt if the certainty of winning for the last season's champ and this season's champ in ladies exceeded the probability of winning merely by "chance" because the margin was so slim in both events. Yet, each sport has rules and it seems that they have to determine the winner, no matter what. So "luck" is inherently included in the rules.

But ovbiously, this logic does not apply to Jeff's victory with such a large margin. Even if Brian had had a clean SP, he wouldn't have been close.

 

[Tonichelle]

Skaters work hard and any suggestion that they are "lucky" is pure ignorance.

Well then I guess Paul Wylie is ignorant, because he chalks his Olympic Medal up to "God's Grace" which translates, in a way, to luck.

 

[Bennett]

Well then I guess Paul Wylie is ignorant, because he chalks his Olympic Medal up to "God's Grace" which translates, in a way, to luck.

Interesting! Many religious people would say God's or higher power's mercy/grace or God's or higher power's will/plan. But I think they usually mean something different from pure random error or luck.

When Shizuka won her OGM, a Japanese announcer said "The Goddess of Torino Olympics kissed Shizuka" as he personally believed that the Olympic medalists must be "chosen" by some higher power or destiny. This comment was so catchy that it became very famous.

Both were very beautifully put. I agree that winning the big title is something very special and not always achievable merely by efforts, will power, talent and all that. They are certainly necessary, but not sufficient conditions. All the timing has to be put together. So they may feel, "Do your best and leave the outcome to God or higher power."

 

[nubka]

So they may feel, "Do your best and leave the outcome to God or higher power."

Except that I doubt that God and/or a Higher Power gives a rusty hoot about figure skating, lol!!

 

[Tonichelle]

depends on how you view your faith and how God works

I don't mean to make Paul's words seem less than they are. I completely understand what he was saying and where he was coming from. I don't think he was trying to get rid of the word 'luck' but I only quoted one part of a small speech he gave at my church a few years back.

 

[sebj]

well it not just only that, it seems like so many of the competitions are prejudice. and like how can it not be? judges obviously know the who's who in figure skating so they would only naturally think that way.
even with the japanese ladies; mao vs yukari
they expect mao to have her flutz but be the "it" girl and then yukari to have the wraps

 

[blue dog]

But ovbiously, this logic does not apply to Jeff's victory with such a large margin. Even if Brian had had a clean SP, he wouldn't have been close.

Perhaps it was just the weekend of Jeff's life, when Jeff could do no wrong. This happened to Tara Lipinski, who wasn't the odds-on favourite that year to win Olympic gold, but she did. Or to Grischuk and Platov in 1994, whom many overlooked when picking Oly gold winners that year (many had pegged Usova/Zhulin or the returning Torvill/Dean...no one picked the 2nd Russian team!).

Or, like Toni said, sometimes it just comes together at the right time. All of that hard work, plus the opportunity of a lifetime = luck. That's what Paul, Jeff, and many of those "surprise" winners have in common.

 

[NatachaHatawa]

Irina - 06 Olympics - no, she didn't win, but she didn't deserve the bronze, Fumie did. The same could be said for Sasha's silver...

I don't agree. I think Irina should have won silver.

As for Tatiana and Maxim, they were favorites anyway.

Concerning Mao, at worst she was supposed to get silver

 

[antmanb]

At Skate Canada (2001-2002 season) Michelle, in panic mode after parting compay with her coach, tried a triple flip / triple toe (or was it triple flip / triple loop?) combination for the first time in her life. She fell and finished third. Sarah Hughes won and Irina Slutskaya was second.

Michelle had planned two 3/3s apparently - the 3T/3T and then the 3Lz/3R she sat down on the opening triple toe and therefore did not attempt the the second triple toe in the combination and then attempted the 3Lz/3R and underrotated and hopped out of the 3R. Given what what we know now about the state of her hip it was amighty good attempt.

Ant

 

[Jaana]

Jeffery Buttle - 08 Worlds - mainly because the men's program was sucha splat fest that I'm not sure if he'd won if the other skaters had slept vs. partied the night before (because for some only a hangover would explain their inability to skate, jump, rotate & land...)

I think that in most cases a skater needs also luck to stand on the podium at Worlds. Buttle was also really successful in his training as he peaked exactly in the right time. At 2008 Worlds there were at least these seven skaters who could have won a medal, if lucky:

Lambiel
Joubert
Takahashi
Verner
Lysacek
Weir
Buttle

Lysacek had to withdraw, Lambiel, Takahashi and Verner had a disastrous freeskate, which gave Buttle, Joubert and Weir a medal. Buttle skated really well in whole competition (first in sp and fs, he can feel real proud about his achievements!!!), Joubert skated well enough to be second in freeskate and Weir was second in sp, but only fifth in the freeskate. It seems to me that based on that he was the most lucky one to medal at Worlds.

 

[Brandi_DeLain]

Splatfests, imo, come from skaters who can not do a particular element but try it anyway and again miss it. Think Weir's quad.

Johnny two-foots the quad but usually rotates it quite well. His air position is very nice -- not hunched over like some guys -- and since he's never fallen on it in competition, I don't think "splatfest" applies here.

I'm glad he got some more mileage on the quad this season in high pressure situations (US Nats/Worlds). He's laid down some gorgeous quads & quad combos in practice, and I hope he comes out swinging with them in the GP next season.

I'd also like to add that I think it's funny to complain about him going for the quad and not landing it perfectly. Plenty of people would be on his case if he hadn't gone for it. Ask Jeffrey Buttle.

Damned if you do . . .

Weir was second in sp, but only fifth in the freeskate. It seems to me that based on that he was the most lucky one to medal at Worlds.

I believe that Johnny would have been third in the FS if he hadn't gotten that very questionable UR call on his quad. I've seen way worse quads by other skaters ratified, so I feel he was unlucky in that regard.

And staying on one's feet when other skaters cave in to the pressure doesn't have nearly as much to do with luck as it does with hard training and strength of will.

 

[blue dog]

I think the real test of luck nowadays is whether the skaters get a fair/unfair, kind/unkind technical caller.

It won't be long before technical callers start getting gifts.

 

[Tonichelle]

how do you know the gift giving hasn't already been done?

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I don't agree. I think Irina should have won silver.

As for Tatiana and Maxim, they were favorites anyway.

Concerning Mao, at worst she was supposed to get silver

True, but in that case, I was showing my inner "my skater is better than your skater" in regards to Tat & Maxim... I'm not sure how Irina should've won silver, but I was stilled baffled by CoP in '06 and judged Irina's placement through a 6.0 lense and the shock of seeing her fall... (I was also mad I lost 10 bucks to my hubby because he bet on DivaKwara)

I think the real test of luck nowadays is whether the skaters get a fair/unfair, kind/unkind technical caller.

It won't be long before technical callers start getting gifts.

So very true... sad, but true - and very skating like

I don't like the sounds of this post. Jeff Buttle won his title through hard work, and his great artistry. He skated both his short and long programs perfectly. He was the best skater on that night.

Skaters work hard and any suggestion that they are "lucky" is pure ignorance.

Lad,
Anybody else implying that "luck" in sports is ignorant, I'd throw a tantrum - but since I immediately thought of you when I found out Jeff won, I will officially apologize to you and only you if the theme of my post came off as disrespectful or as a slight to Buttle... But having said that, you do have to admit sometimes its better to be lucky than the favorite...:yes:

Toni - Please forgive me if I've failed to multi quote properly and thanks for merging my multitude of messages together...

 

[Tonichelle]

KW - no worries, it gives me something to do in the off season

 

[Bennett]

What I'm saying is that the top men, for whatever reason, skated like they had a hangover... just bad bad bad... and for some it was flat out embarrassing. These weren't mistakes that cost one a medal - these were flat out melt downs... Joubert doing a single jump? Takahashi forgetting his jump number (not that it hasn't happened before)? Lambiel's spins not looking like a miracle on ice? Joubert doing a single jump??? The top men were a hot mess. And Buttle was lucky because of it...

It is not unusual for top skaters to have a mess in a big competition such as the Olympics and World Champ. But it's not that they had a random bad luck and happened to have meltdown for an unknown reason like "partying" and having "hangover." As Takahashi and Tomas did this year, Jeff had a similar nerve issue at the last season's Worlds when he was at the second place in SP and needed to skate his LP as the final skater after the home crowd's favorite, Takahashi, had done very well. This year, he was also leading the SP and skating as the final skater after home crowd's favorite, Joubert, had done very well. But this year, he was able to control his nerves. Controlling the nerves is an important part of big competitions and Jeff was successful in it while some others were not. I also don't think the inconsistency in Lambiel was attributable to a random bad luck because of the inconsistency prior to the event. But a good thing is that they could work on their homework such as nerves and consistency if they choose not to blame bad luck.
Besides, it seems that Joubert did his best judging from the happiness he expressed after his performance and considering how he had skated this season. If his skate was far inferior to his normal practices, he couldn't have been that happy.

(I also would remiss to add that his gold medal is his and his alone... those who supported him cannot take credit for his win... Root for him, support him and do whatever needs to be done, but its not fair to attribute his win to supporters & fans... sorry but that's a pet peeve of mine & that's coming from the ultimate uber fan...)

What I specifically meant by "those who supported him" included his coaches and choreographer who were directly involved in his skating as well as his significant others like his family who made great sacrifice for his skating career and his friends and other people around him.
I personally never thought that skaters should attribute their victory to their fans or fans should attribute the skater's victory to their cheering for them.
Nonetheless, I personally do not think that the support from the fans should not be credited as you suggest, either, not only because it's a matter of personal opinions to be respected, but also because many skaters in fact do specifically attribute their success to their fans (e.g., Miki, Fumie). I don't know what Jeff specifically thinks of this matter. But in his victory interview, he mainly talked about his greatest appreciation to various people who helped him and supported him including the Swedish audience there, instead of focusing on himself.

Mao - 08 Worlds - its the figure skating world championships, not the world series... but that was a beautiful slide into home plate

I understand that you meant this to be a joke so that I tried not to care. But sorry, I do. I don't think it nice and feel uncomfortable. Mao could have broken her bones with that severe fall. She indeed got some scar and pains in her legs and bones.
She had put so much effort in her signature jump and had been pretty consistent in her pre-event practices. It would be very regrettable for her that she couldn't complete it. She also would have been the last person who had wanted to destroy the artistry of the first part of the beautiful program; but she nevertheless did. Yet, she stood up and did her best in the rest.
I agree that she was lucky winning with such a slight margin with that fall because I think that she could have lost if she had had a different judging panel. I also don't think the failure of the jump unlucky, either, given the inconsistency of the jump in her pre-event competitions and her nerve issue. So it's not unexpected that something unusual could happen.
But still, I don't feel like laughing at that severe fall. It was really a dangerous fall.

And why has this thread turned into arguements against the beauty of a lucky competitor? I LOVE when the underdog snatches the bone away from the champs - that's why we play the game... cause you never know how its gonna work out...

I think it's because your original post sounds to be disrespectful to what you consider the underdog because of the use of metaphors like (other men's) having been "slept," had "parties," and "hangover" to describe how lucky Jeff was as well as the ironic comparison of Mao's highly dangerous, regrettable fall to the "sliding to the beautiful home plate" in "World series" etc. I am afraid that I felt uncomfortable when I read your post although I trust that you didn't intentionally mean to be offensive to the readers.