Short Dance Cup of China

[chuckm]

It's not the scoring of the Shibs that bothers me, it's the overscoring of B&S, particularly in the PCS. No way are they anywhere that close to V&M and D&W in PCS, in any sense. And no way should they be nearly 2 points ahead of P&B, even with P&B being ill.

V&M 36.36
D&W 36.19
B&S 33.23
P&B 31.56
C&L 31.42
W&P 30.89
S&S 30.08
Z&G 29.14


And no way are the Shibs skating skills close to Zhiganshina & Gaszi

Look at the judging panel. USA JPN GBR UKR FRA UZB CHN AUS RUS.

 

[bekalc]

Well, I'm up past my bedtime with my lashes propped up on toothpicks. Generally PCS are close to set in stone over the GP season; tech not so much, because tech callers vary wildly and the skaters mess up now and again. This competition more now. BTW, I got the wrong column for the Shibs' PCS-they are marginally better than Z&G, but not much.

Well I thought the Shibs PCs were high at Worlds last year. Very talented team technically but a ton of work to do on the other aspects. Don't have a problem with P/B losing bronze due to their issues, but one could argue maybe a team like W/P should have been the ones who got it. Or then one could argue no way Shibs would have gotten gold/silver if D/W or V/M because the other two were so much better maybe the same could be said for P/B.

If there was a team that was going to lose out on the N. American sweep it was going to be the Shibs and for a ton of good reasons. This Latin theme does them no favors either.

 

[wallylutz]

I said in the prediction thread it's not gonna be a catwalk for the Shibs. I was right

Yet not a single soul except me predicted that the Russians would beat the Shibs, have you wonder why? I predicted as far back as last season that as soon as the SD's prescribed rhythm doesn't suit them, they will struggle and boy, they do big time. There is only so much skating skills can carry you. In a SD, not displaying the character and flair prescribed by the rhythm will eliminate you from the running.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yet not a single soul except me predicted that the Russians would beat the Shibs, have you wonder why? I predicted as far back as last season that as soon as the SD's prescribed rhythm doesn't suit them, they will struggle and boy, they do big time. There is only so much skating skills can carry you. In a SD, not displaying the character and flair prescribed by the rhythm will eliminate you from the running.

It's just the SD. Don't you want to wait until the competition is over before you declare "I told you so?"

I still think B/S was highly overscored. Given the levels that the Shibs left on the table, I say it would be reasonable for them to be in the lead by 3-4 points NOT 8. B/S program was sloppy in places.

Anyway, we'll see how they both fare tomorrow.

 

[wallylutz]

It's not the scoring of the Shibs that bothers me, it's the overscoring of B&S, particularly in the PCS. No way are they anywhere that close to V&M and D&W in PCS, in any sense. And no way should they be nearly 2 points ahead of P&B, even with P&B being ill.

V&M 36.36
D&W 36.19
B&S 33.23
P&B 31.56
C&L 31.42
W&P 30.89
S&S 30.08
Z&G 29.14


And no way are the Shibs skating skills close to Zhiganshina & Gaszi

- Attempting to compare score across different events is not going to be very accurate because different panels have different preferences and leniency

- PCS isn't just about skating skills. In the SD especially, Interpretation (IN) is far more important than other components, hence the fact the two have somewhat close PCS isn't a reflection of the Shibs of SS, which remain impressive. But that alone isn't going to carry them

- The signal sent by the judges here is that the Shibs need to improve a great deal or else they could look for at least 3~4 teams passing them this year

 

[wallylutz]

It's just the SD. Don't you want to wait until the competition is over before you declare "I told you so?"

I still think B/S was highly overscored. Given the levels that the Shibs left on the table, I say it would be reasonable for them to be in the lead by 3-4 points NOT 8. B/S program was sloppy in places.

Anyway, we'll see how they both fare tomorrow.

Barring disasters, an 8+ points lead after SD is almost impossible to come back from at this level. You already have an idea of the Shibs' FD scoring range from Finlandia, it isn't exactly great either. B/S aren't exactly dummies either. Sorry to say this but please don't have any unrealistic expectation for tomorrow to avoid further disappointment.

 

[Tesla]

Evan & his new partner are miles & miles ahead of Emily & Todd at this point, in everything.

Evan and Madison have been together longer than Emily and Todd, so of course they're going to be better. Emily and Todd just need more time.

 

[wallylutz]

But the Shibs did look young...well, they are young.

Being young is one thing, with about zero Latin look, that's even worse.

 

[Mrs. P]

Barring disasters, an 8+ points lead after SD is almost impossible to come back from at this level. You already have an idea of the Shibs' FD scoring range from Finlandia, it isn't exactly great either. B/S aren't exactly dummies either. Sorry to say this but please don't have any unrealistic expectation for tomorrow to avoid further disappointment.

B/S also tend to make mistakes. All I'm saying it's not over till its over.

 

[wallylutz]

Stop comparing scores from different competition. In no way would Tatiana and Maxim beat Aliona and Robin by 6 points in the LP if they skated the same programs in the same competition.

The Russians did skate quite a bit better than the Germans though. I wouldn't say never to that question, I sense that there is a momentum on the side of the Russian Champions this year.

 

[wallylutz]

Look at the judging panel. USA JPN GBR UKR FRA UZB CHN AUS RUS.

Interesting that you mention the judging panel. The panel actually looks quite favorable to the Shibs. 5 out 9 are 4CC judges with the Europeans being a minority here. Plus, only two judges out of 9 have an incentive to mark the Shibs down (FRA, RUS) and two judges have an incentive to mark the Shibs high (USA, JPN). Further to that, the referee is British, the Controller is the current head of Ice Dance technical committee from Poland (whose election was favored over the wife of Russian Fed), the technical specialist is Australian. As far as Ice Dance is concerned, it's hard for a North American team to get a better panel than this. I will note that with Ms. Gordon Poltorak as the Controller, one should expect more strict calls on the elements but that could turn out to be a good thing in the long run.

 

[KKonas]

Haven't seen the Shibs live yet this year but from the video it does look like their SD was slower and Latin is not their strength at this point in their career. However, I do think B&S were overmarked here. They are fast but sloppy. He can't twizzle. Having seen Pechlat & Bourzat live at SA, I think they will make the world podium unless they suffer another disastrous fall. Even though ill, overall Bourzat skated well. I especially enjoyed their SD very much. Emily & Todd definitely need more training time together.

 

[fairly4]

first of all i thought the shibs did a lot better maturity wise at cc than at nebelhorn trophy, so i am kinda of surprise at the low score.
however bobrovia and soloview didn't much more than the shibs and got a 65.
well i think they skated well, however not warrent that score.
i think the shibs should have got at least a over 60 not a 57.
i think weaver/pjoe; cappellina /lannotte, pechalat /bourzat, bobrova/soloview, shibutanis all skate about alike so their scores should be about the same. in my opinion

 

[chuckm]

It's WAY too early to say the Shibutanis are toast. They got off to a slow start last season (Weaver/Poje beat them at NHK, the first comp of the season). By 4CC, the Shibs looked like a different team.

 

[wallylutz]

It's WAY too early to say the Shibutanis are toast. They got off to a slow start last season (Weaver/Poje beat them at NHK, the first comp of the season). By 4CC, the Shibs looked like a different team.

This was discussed before, the Shibs beat Weaver/Poje at last year's 4CC because W/P crashed & burned in the FD. They led the Shibs going into the FD in fact and would have beaten them if they had simply skated clean even if the skate was otherwise, just average.

 

[chuckm]

Interesting that you mention the judging panel. The panel actually looks quite favorable to the Shibs. 5 out 9 are 4CC judges with the Europeans being a minority here. Plus, only two judges out of 9 have an incentive to mark the Shibs down (FRA, RUS) and two judges have an incentive to mark the Shibs high (USA, JPN). Further to that, the referee is British, the Controller is the current head of Ice Dance technical committee from Poland (whose election was favored over the wife of Russian Fed), the technical specialist is Australian. As far as Ice Dance is concerned, it's hard for a North American team to get a better panel than this. I will note that with Ms. Gordon Poltorak as the Controller, one should expect more strict calls on the elements but that could turn out to be a good thing in the long run.

There are 3 judges from former SSRs on the panel, and the Assistant Tech Spec (DURNEV) is Russian. Look at the PCS scores and you can see scores in the 9s from 3 judges for Bobrova/Soloviev. Three judges gave the Shibs PCS scores in the upper 6s and low 7s while the other judges gave the Shibs higher scores than that.

Three judges working together do have the power to affect placements.

So I am not looking for "messages" from this panel of judges. What I am seeing is an effort to give Bobrova/Soloviev a good push upward. They are at this point the top Russian team and it is not the first time we have seen a Russia #1 given a huge score boost.

 

[dorispulaski]

From IN, which granted is not the arena, this was just a badly skated event for all the teams, and really all the scores are rather high for what the teams did, IMO.

 

[Mrs. P]

This was discussed before, the Shibs beat Weaver/Poje at last year's 4CC because W/P crashed & burned in the FD. They led the Shibs going into the FD in fact and would have beaten them if they had simply skated clean even if the skate was otherwise, just average.

The fact is that W/P had been making little mistakes all year long from the beginning of the GP until 4CC. And so were the Shibs, but the managed solid programs both during 4CC (more the FS than the SD, if I recall correctly) and Worlds.

I love how everyone is saying the Shibs are not really good but got where they are because of help from other pairs. Well that's part of skating folks. It's not the Shibs fault that W/P crashed and burned at 4CC or that B/S and P/B fell at Worlds. And it's frustrating to see that their detractors are unwilling to acknowledge the progress they made during the season.

I think the Shibs are well aware that they are not going to stay on the podium unless they work it. And just because they "can't do Latin" now doesn't mean they won't be able to when it really counts.

 

[dorispulaski]

Just because the Shibs did not do Latin particularly well last night does not mean they will never do Latin well.

In fact, they didn't do a bad Latin in 2005 as intermediates at US Junior Nationals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6NrB23vPx8

The commentator is Nancy Kerrigan.

 

[Mrs. P]

Just because the Shibs did not do Latin particularly well last night does not mean they will never do Latin well.

In fact, they didn't do a bad Latin in 2005 as intermediates at US Junior Nationals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6NrB23vPx8

I love watching that video. So cute to see Maia's interview at the end.