USFS Will Select 3 for Skate America, but WHO?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

(Possible entries in SA: Mao, Miki, Yukari, Joannie, Carolina, Susanna, Sara, Kira, Elena, Elene, Marchei.)

Which would be the best three to compete against the above at Skate America?

Kimmie, Emily, Alyssa, Katy, Bebe, Christine Z, Rachael, Ashley, Caroline, Mirai?
Please pick only 3 and select one who could win SA.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

My first thought was to give Rachael a chance. However, she is not eligible for any other event, so it might be better for her to do the junior GP instead, where she could get two assignments plus probably make (and maybe win) the junior GP final.

In addition to the strategy of trying to place as many skaters as possible and to put them in a position to make the finals, there is also the consideration of making Skate America as TV friendly as possible. Who would sell tickets? This might push the USFSA in the direction of beating the Caroline Zhang drum as early and as incessantly as possible (Kwan is gone but here comes Zhang!)

I'll vote for Kimmie, Alissa and Bebe. Kimmie could win if Mao or Miki or Yu-na-- only one of them can be there -- is off her game.

 

[Spun Silver]

I'll go for Kimmie, Ashley, and Caroline. Let's put our young 'uns out there - they're smokin'. Worlds team can be decided elsewhere.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think YuNa will be in Skate Canada to be near Orso.

Strategy v. TV ratings! I think this might give Kimmie a sure silver if not gold.

Skate America should be Emily (who is a big draw for fans), plus Alissa and Caroline. Caroline v. Mao and Miki will be a hot issuel

(Remember only silvers and golds will make it to the Finals.)

Joe

 

[Zuranthium]

My first thought was to give Rachael a chance. However, she is not eligible for any other event, so it might be better for her to do the junior GP instead, where she could get two assignments plus probably make (and maybe win) the junior GP final.

Isn't Rachael, like, DONE at the Junoir level?

~Z

 

[Sylvia]

My first thought was to give Rachael a chance. However, she is not eligible for any other event, so it might be better for her to do the junior GP instead, where she could get two assignments plus probably make (and maybe win) the junior GP final.

I think it would be beneficial for both Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu to debut on on the JGP this fall and accumulate ISU ranking points for the 2008-09 season. I wouldn't be surprised to see both Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner on the Senior GP. Danielle Kahle was 6th at Nationals and could have an outside shot at getting Skate America (the only GP she's eligible for this season). Juliana Cannarozzo (7th at Nationals) may return to the JGP. Katy Taylor and Christine Zukowski (8th and 10th, respectively, at Nationals) might have a tougher time getting a Sr. GP assignment this fall, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens at the GP draw in June.

 

[merrywidow]

I'd say Kimmie, Alyssa & Caroline. If Emily is skating the GP then she should be our top rep at SkateCanada.

 

[jennylovskt]

I don't think Kimmie and Caroline Zhang will be put in the same GP event because USFSA will not want either one of them to be beaten by the other. These two, plus Mirai, are USA's best hope for the near future.

Considering the SA will be a live event on TV, both network and USFSA will try to make this event as big impact as possible. My pick will be Kimmie, Alyssa, and someone other than Caroline, Mirai, and Emily. Kimmie will have the best shot at the gold out of 3 Americans. I don't think Mao and Miki will be both here.

 

[Mathman]

I don't think Mao and Miki will be both here.

I'm pretty sure that's right. Only one of the top three at worlds (Mao, Miki, Kim) can be at any one event. Also, only one of 4-6 (Meissner, Nakano, Kostner).

USFS gets first dibs on Meissner, but which one of the top three they get will depend not only on who they want to invite but also on the order of the draw.

 

[morninglight]

Will Caroline & Mirai be already senior? If they are eligible to this event, I would vote for Kimmie, Caroline, & Mirai Even though Emily may be more famous among the public, I feel that Caroline & Mirai may have a better chance of getting a medal. Mirai may be able to get a gold if she has clean performances and the other top skaters have a couple of mistakes.

 

[Mathman]

Isn't Rachael, like, DONE at the Junoir level?

That's Rachael's dilemma. She's done with juniors at the national level, but internationally she's not old enough to be in the senior World Championship. (She'll be 15 on July 21st -- 21 days too late).

Caught in the middle, she did not qualify for the senior Grand Prix (although she is old enough), so the only senior GP event she can go to is Skate America (the host country is allowed to invite someone outside the ISU qualifying list).

But she can still do the ISU junior GP, including the final if she qualifies, and she could go to 2008 junior worlds if USFS sends her.

 

[hockeyfan228]

USFS gets first dibs on Meissner, but which one of the top three they get will depend not only on who they want to invite but also on the order of the draw.

I've never know if it's been explicitly stated that once the draw order is chosen, how the selection for each group (1-3, 4-6, etc.) works.

After the Feds choose their own, assuming Japanese Fed chooses Ando or Asada, does the next pick have to be whichever of Ando or Asada that Japan doesn't choose or Kim? Or can the next pick choose the same skater that Japan picks?

Sample draw order:

Japan -- selects Ando or Asada up front
United States
Canada
China
France
Russia

Can US pick Kim or whoever Japan has chosen, because each skater is guaranteed two events, so that the selections are, for example:

Japan-Ando
US-Kim
Canada-Kim
China-Asada
France-Asada
Russia-Ando

or must the selection be:

Japan-Ando
US-Kim
Canada-Asada
China-any of the three
France-one of the two that China doesn't pick
Russia-whoever's left

 

[Mathman]

Hmm. I never thought of that question. I just assumed that you could pick anyone you want when it was your turn. (So U.S. - Kim, Canada -- Kim would be OK.)

Also, when you reserve your own skater (Japan -- Ando), does this count as their first round choice, or do they get it for free. (Japan -- Ando, U.S., Meissner. Now the draft begins: Japan -- Asada, if they are lucky enough to get the first draft choice; U.S. -- Asada).

 

[hockeyfan228]

Since you can't get more than one in any group, if a Fed chooses from the group up front, they have to skip their turn.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

This wasn't intended for the entire GP venues. However, your bringing it up is well taken, and there is no place a skater can go to avoid one of the top three.
But there are six in the Finals, that is the reason I wrote my thinking that only gold and silver placements in the series will make the Final.

So, if Miki is in Skate America, no problem for Kimmie to be at SA too. My rationale would be that she could get a silver there and also in Moscow. Strategy is what I am thinking here.

As for the other two US skaters for SA, I think as others do, that the USFS will keep Kimmie and Caroline separated. Unfortunately for Emily if she is in Skate Canada, Caroline may well be there too. Caroline can also get a second in China. If these two possible predictions work out, both Kimmie and Caroline will meet in the Finals;

So the third US skate for Skate America may very well be Alissa who will bring in the masses and keep Skate America from an empty house.

Of course all this is assuming that the 3 top World's finishers will be be in their respective separate GPs, and that they will win them. (How slippery is that ice?)

Joe

 

[childfreegirl]

Am I the only one thinking its a tad to early to be thinking about GP assignments? Let the USFSA finish the general assembly first.

Not to rain on anybody's parade or anything. Sorry.

 

[chuckm]

Each host country picks its OWN skaters first, before the draw for seeds. So the USFS can pick Kimmie or any other skater/team in each discipline.

Rachael Flatt is unlikely to be chosen for Skate America, because that would then be the one and only major event she could do. She can't do 4CC or Worlds (even if she finishes on the podium at Nationals) because she is too young. IMO, she will do the JGP (as will Mirai, who is in the same position) and probably, Junior Worlds. I think it is also unlikely that Caroline Zhang will do the GP this year. My picks for SA: Kimmie, Ashley Wagner and either BeBe or Danielle Kahle.

 

[flying camel]

After thinking it over I am going with Kimmie, Emily & Wagner.

I thought Caroline & Mirai said they were going to compete on the JGP internationally but move up to seniors at Nationals this year.

 

[chuckm]

Am I the only one thinking its a tad to early to be thinking about GP assignments? Let the USFSA finish the general assembly first.

Not to rain on anybody's parade or anything. Sorry.

The ISU has already released the announcement for the 2007-2008 Grand Prix, and they will actually publish the actual assignments somewhere around mid to late June, a little over a month from now. It is not unreasonable for people to start to speculate as to which skaters the USFS will select for Skate America.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

After thinking it over I am going with Kimmie, Emily & Wagner.

I thought Caroline & Mirai said they were going to compete on the JGP internationally but move up to seniors at Nationals this year.

You don't seem to be thinking about the Finals. Emily will not make it at SA with Kimmie there. Emily needs at least a silver to be on the road to the Finals. Wagner may even put her off the podium. Whoever the Asian lady is, it will be her, most likely with the gold. One can not count on meltdowns to happen. Emily would be best served to be in Skate Canada and face another Asian Lady and Joannie.

Joe