Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[silveruskate]

Comparison Thread

There was a discussion on RLT about who will dominate the next GP season.

If we think about it as Russians vs. The Rest

There's:

Valieva, Shcherbakova, Trusova, Tuktamysheva, Kostornaia, Khromykh, Usacheva, (Sinitsyna!!!)

Vs.

Kihira, Sakamoto, Young You, Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn, Bradie Tennell, anyone else?

Not just about the Gold Medals. How do the Rest fit in with the Russian pack? And you won't be facing everyone at the same time during GP series.

 

[silveruskate]

About Kihira, I think she's talented but she's starting to prove herself to be a choker or mismanaged career.

Great Japanese Nats with a 3A, 4S, 3Lz back and looking good. Then they can't stop her becoming injured or something between January to March and everything evaporates. When she first came to Worlds wasn't she still planning the 4S? She was doing it in practice.

Her 3-3 is also always giving problems.

Rika has always been seen as the main hope against the Russians, but it seems more and more and more like she doesn't have IT.

 

[DSQ]

Loena Hendrickx, she’s finally over her injuries. I think with some consistency she might not beat the Russians but she’ll keep them honest.

 

[silveruskate]

Rino Matsuike has potential

 

[ELEk3k]

Anyone knows who have stable quads or 3A in the world (exc. Russian) at the current time? May be it will from junior who can play in OG.

 

[surimi]

If Alysa Liu can get her 3a and quad back, then my bet would be on her.

 

[Skater Boy]

About Kihira, I think she's talented but she's starting to prove herself to be a choker or mismanaged career.

Great Japanese Nats with a 3A, 4S, 3Lz back and looking good. Then they can't stop her becoming injured or something between January to March and everything evaporates. When she first came to Worlds wasn't she still planning the 4S? She was doing it in practice.

Her 3-3 is also always giving problems.

Rika has always been seen as the main hope against the Russians, but it seems more and more and more like she doesn't have IT.

Rika might be a Liz Manley - she will do it; it is just when and Rika was more consistent than Liz. The problem with the Russian ladies is puberty wheras Rika has survived. Alysa Liu could do it but she will have to do well on the GP to up the PCS. I think before you go to amber there is Karen Chen, Mariah Bell and Tennell all good skaters but I personally see them more as medal contenders than gold only because the lack of tech comparatively and artistically their best technicians Liu and Tennell arent the best artistically. I wonder about Loena or someone beatingthem.

 

[ELEk3k]

The problem with the Russian ladies is puberty wheras Rika has survived.

I think you are wrong about that. The conveyor has already started working, and the schools have been rebuilt to make a quads. Taking into account the amount of action of the current older Russian ladies who are already jumping quads, and those who are now trying to get them, then I am sure that even if 70% stop jumping them, there will be at least 2 girls jumping quads in adult competitions. Even after raising the requirements for high age... No matter how pretentious it may sound, the revolution has already taken place. Now all schools understand that there is nothing to do without quads in the Russian championship, the athletes themselves are talking about this.

I hear every year that the problem with girls with growing up, but they keep jumping. Now even Tuktamysheva is trying to prepare quads for the next season, and at her age it is more difficult to study a new component than when you studied it when you were young.

 

[Greengemmonster]

I don't think the Russian ladies are going to lose their quads. Sasha in particular looks like she's going to still have quads when she's 25!!!

I love Rika, so so so much but I'm running out of hope for her. I would love to be proven wrong and jeered at, as a disloyal fan when she medals at the Olympics but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

[nussnacker]

Sasha in particular looks like she's going to still have quads when she's 25!!!

I think so too! I remember Brian in particular didn’t think she’ll have quads at even 16-17. Well, thankfully, his predictions did not come true!

 

[icetug]

Anyone knows who have stable quads or 3A in the world (exc. Russian) at the current time?

Rika is the only non Russian skater who has stable 3A.
On the other hand, Liza is the only Russian skater with stable 3A right now.

No non Russian lady can jump stable quads.
On the other hand, Sasha is the only Russian lady who has stable quads right now.

Still Anna who doesn't have stable quads nor 3A was a stable winner last season. So how much those elements are important to dominate?

 

[ELEk3k]

I don't think the Russian ladies are going to lose their quads. Sasha in particular looks like she's going to still have quads when she's 25!!!

I love Rika, so so so much but I'm running out of hope for her. I would love to be proven wrong and jeered at, as a disloyal fan when she medals at the Olympics but I don't think it's going to happen.

I really look forward to including Japan in the quad, and I've seen the juniors actively explore them already! I think Japan will be the next country to fully enter the fourth era.

 

[4everchan]

I think the main opposition will come from the competitive climate inside Russia. That will eliminate some names from that long list of contenders... and then the ones who will be going to the games will have to deal with the pressure. Zagitova did handle it very well in 2018, but look what happened to her afterwards? I can see a similar scenario happening where the champion is Russian but then vanishes from the scene. (Same happened too in 2014). As for outside contenders : I like Kaori the best but Rika could also contend.

 

[Arbitrary]

Everyone can, but first of all the politics. Just ban RusFed from any internationals and done. To find a reason would take minutes...
Russian sports economy is relatively small in terms of money and international corporations could look for adv persons among non-Russians.

 

[ELEk3k]

Rika is the only non Russian skater who has stable 3A.
On the other hand, Liza is the only Russian skater with stable 3A right now.

No non Russian lady can jump stable quads.
On the other hand, Sasha is the only Russian lady who has stable quads right now.

Still Anna who doesn't have stable quads nor 3A was a stable winner last season. So how much those elements are important to dominate?

I can agree with you if you wrote about official ISU trophies.
But not agree if you write about all performances in the season.

Valieva a good quads and 3A in the official season and a lot quads and 3A in the Tutberidze's shows.
Khromikh a 2 quad in of. season and a lod quads in the Tutberidze's shows.
Also don't agree with your opinion about Anna. Yes she had problem quads in the ISU trophies, but in the not ISU it was pretty well.
In my opinion Trusova had has the most unstable quads, but just takes the number of tries. I hope Eteri will repair it.

 

[Amei]

Rika is the only non Russian skater who has stable 3A.
On the other hand, Liza is the only Russian skater with stable 3A right now.

No non Russian lady can jump stable quads.
On the other hand, Sasha is the only Russian lady who has stable quads right now.

Still Anna who doesn't have stable quads nor 3A was a stable winner last season. So how much those elements are important to dominate?

While she didn't cleanly land her 2 international quad attempts in competition (1 fall and 1 step-out), she did land 5 in domestic competitions this season so not sure why you are saying they are unstable. Even if she can't cleanly land them they still give her a good BV advantage over skaters with no quad, a step out like she did at WTT netted her over 8.5 points so she still makes out better than most cleanly landed solo triple jumps with positive GOE, and a fall like at Worlds wouldn't be too terrible equaling pretty much what she'd get doing a double axel clean.

 

[Colonel Green]

Then they can't stop her becoming injured or something between January to March and everything evaporates.

No coaching team can stop a skater from becoming injured. You can minimize the risk as much as possible, but in sport injury is just part of the equation. It happens to everybody at some point — if you’re lucky it won’t happen at the most inconvenient times. Rika was unlucky.

 

[alexocfp]

The big problem for the chasing pack is that the big game players and the technical wizards all lean Russian.

The best European non Russian is Loena but she doesn’t have the firepower yet to challenge them.

Rika has more weapons, but when push comes to shove, she doesn’t rise to the occasion as much as she should.

And if the top Russians skate like they did at Nationals, then in won’t matter what anyone else does.

That’s what makes it even tougher. The Russian ladies control their own destiny. They don’t need help or falls to win.

 

[kwanatic]

As of right now, I don't think there is anyone who can actually beat the Russians. In addition to the slanted judging most receive (don't @ me cause you know it's true) the reality is they are the main ones working the system like they own it. More specifically, with the exception of Liza T, Eteri's students are ruling women's skating right now and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon.

The level of difficulty is through the roof and most other countries can't keep up. If you don't have at least a 3A, it's unlikely you can make it to the podium at a major international event without relying on others to mess up. If by chance you do have tougher elements there's still the issue of the Russian-leaning GOE/PCS bias that will most likely keep a Russian at the top of the leaderboard. The top spots of the podium at GP events, the Grand Prix Final, Worlds and the Olympics are pretty much earmarked for a Russian at this point for the foreseeable future.

Rika had a shot over these past years to snag that top spot but, unfortunately, she was unable to capitalize on those opportunities. A combination of injuries, bad timing and/or nerves has cost her two world titles. Had she been clean in in 2019 she'd have beaten Alina and with the lackluster skating at this year's event, a clean performance of her intended content would have given her the title.

Aside from Rika, there isn't anyone else who has the content. Kaori is a phenomenal skater but she is often lowballed when she's up against Russians and I don't see that changing. I can make the argument she deserved to be on the last two world podiums but was denied due to others being scored over her... Alysa is a lovely skater but I'm doubtful she'll be able to put serious pressure on the Russians. Even if she gets the 3A and a quad back she'll run into one brick wall labeled "GOE" and a bigger wall labeled "PCS" and, whether she's made improvements or not, she won't be given the scores to be competitive at the top... Bradie doesn't have the content and struggles at big events... Karen doesn't have the content and is too erratic... Amber has a 3A but it's unproven in competition, plus she'll be on the low end of the PCS pool... You Young is one of the best jumpers in the field and she's capable of a 3A and a quad from what we've seen. However, her big elements aren't reliable and she also struggles with consistency. I'd love to see her do well at some point though...

I know people have their feelings re: how Eteri does things but you can't deny she's one of the most successful coaches out there. She produces champion after champion. Her track record with longevity is nonexistent but longevity doesn't seem to be that important in Russia since there is always another skater coming up. As one star falls another rises. Eteri's skaters seem to be averaging about 2.5 to 3 years at the senior level before being replaced. That's a brutal pace but it is what it is and doesn't appear to be slowing down.

Of course nothing is set in stone. Ice is slippery and circumstances and situations can change quickly and drastically. Still, I don't see anyone in the field or coming up through the ranks outside of Russia who has the necessary fire power and political positioning to unseat the current regime at this time.

 

[odinv]

On the other hand, Sasha is the only Russian lady who has stable quads right now.

I thought Valieva's quads were pretty stable?

As for giving the Russians a run for their money, unless Kihira is on top of her game, I'd think anyone else has an outside chance at best at this point.

Then again what do I know? I honestly thought the World Championships was going to be a Kihira VS Shcherbakova VS Trusova 3 way shootout.