Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[silveruskate]

Given where Trusova is coming from, I concur. She has it all to do. Anna at RusNats beat an almost clean Valieva across programs by quite a lot. At this stage Trusova is fighting for 3rd place, her PCS deficit is worth at least one clean quad if not more. But anything can happen. If Anna comes back out of the injury with no quads she's done for, but I hope and think that won't happen.

 

[Amei]

Given where Trusova is coming from, I concur. She has it all to do. At this stage Trusova is fighting for 3rd place, her PCS deficit is worth at least one clean quad if not more. But anything can happen.

I'm torn on Trusova; part of me thinks her consistency problems leave her vulnerable but another part of me says the Fed might always be willing to gamble on her because (at this point) she can throw 5 quads and gives much more wiggle room to problems.

 

[yume]

But what if no-quad Shcherbakova shows up at Nationals like at Worlds? Her technique is the most unsound of the Russians. I'm loving her success as I've been a fan of hers since she was 12. But reality is that she is the weakest jumper of the Russians, including Tukt. Will she hold on for an Olympic spot? I sort of just believe she'll do it because she is a tough competitor. and her competitive record speaks for itself. But I have doubts. Alyona is a MUCH better skater IMO, there is no comparison, but she needs the Ultra-C to be competitive. If Koz, Usacheva, and Khromykh have a 3axel ready for the SP, Anna will suffer competitively. I see Koz, U, and K to be more likely to land a 3axel. Anna really has no room anymore. Her Worlds program and subsequent win was a gift. But I'll chalk it up to COVID and no one was in top shape. I just feel that Anna is the vulnerable one for the third Oly spot.

Technique doesn't matter in the current scoring system. If you land the jumps out of transitions + rippons, you will get the points no matter how much pre-rotation you do or iffy edges you have.
With that weak jumping technique girl have able to jump three type of quads. The team can maybe salvage one despite the growth spurt.

In the SP she can get 82. That isn't too far from the 85-88 that Kostornaya/Valieva can get.
In the FS with just one quad (and i think she will have one) she can be in the 155-160 zone. That's enough for at least bronze.
That can put her at the 4th place if Trusova/Valieva/Kostornaya are clean (with 3A/quads), but there are low chances that this happens imo.

 

[Arbitrary]

I'm torn on Trusova; part of me thinks her consistency problems leave her vulnerable but another part of me says the Fed might always be willing to gamble on her because (at this point) she can throw 5 quads and gives much more wiggle room to problems.

Moreover, Sasha must throw 5 quads only once and in a three minutes interval. She may leave right after, hang her skates and even skip the Olympics Gala.
She may totally omit Olympics, provided she's going to participate at GP-22 or EC-22 and do her "five" there.
Even one time is enough to be kept in the Wiki for quite some time.

Scherbakova will be in the Olympics Team, Valieva is right after her.
Regarding Kostornaya & Tuktamisheva, I'm not so optimistic.

 

[silveruskate]

I'm torn on Trusova; part of me thinks her consistency problems leave her vulnerable but another part of me says the Fed might always be willing to gamble on her because (at this point) she can throw 5 quads and gives much more wiggle room to problems.

I would have agreed if there was no Valieva in the picture.

 

[Lzbee]

Technique doesn't matter in the current scoring system. If you land the jumps out of transitions + rippons, you will get the points no matter how much pre-rotation you do or iffy edges you have.
With that weak jumping technique girl have able to jump three type of quads. The team can maybe salvage one despite the growth spurt.

In the SP she can get 82. That isn't too far from the 85-88 that Kostornaya/Valieva can get.
In the FS with just one quad (and i think she will have one) she can be in the 155-160 zone. That's enough for at least bronze.
That can put her at the 4th place if Trusova/Valieva/Kostornaya are clean (with 3A/quads), but there are low chances that this happens imo.

Yeah I don't think Shcherbakova is in any trouble unless she loses her triples as well. I'd be very surprised if they don't help the 3 time Russian national champion and reigning world champion in every way they can.

 

[macy]

Yeah I don't think Shcherbakova is in any trouble unless she loses her triples as well. I'd be very surprised if they don't help the 3 time Russian national champion and reigning world champion in every way they can.

if she consistently podiums this year even without quads i can absolutely see them still holding her up to make the team.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yeah I don't think Shcherbakova is in any trouble unless she loses her triples as well. I'd be very surprised if they don't help the 3 time Russian national champion and reigning world champion in every way they can.

The Russian Fed has no problem leaving successful athletes at home when better ones come along. Irina, Adelina, Julia L, and Liza have all been left off a team the season after winning a world or Olympic medal. If Anna is close to that top group I could see the Russian Fed giving her opportunities after Russian Nationals to secure her spot like they did with Evgenia a few years back, but I don't think anyone will make the team without being amongst the three best.

 

[Ali81]

At this point I don’t see any one troubling the Russian ladies . Even if you take ultra -c elements out of the equation, the Russian ladies are backloading atleast 2 tough triple combos with ease . No one else seems capable of that . And I think it’s a pipe dream to expect any of the other senior international ladies to develop 3A/quad in this Olympic year . It’s pretty clear that those jumps need to be forged in junior days to be remotely reliable . I’d like to be proved wrong though!

 

[kolyadafan2002]

At this point I think they should, maybe controversially, have a different worlds and Olympics team. The skaters they don't think will be ready should work towards peaking at worlds, and the others push for Olympics. Should probably have one or two "safe" skaters at each event and then also a wildcard.

 

[Sjs5572]

At this point I don’t see any one troubling the Russian ladies . Even if you take ultra -c elements out of the equation, the Russian ladies are backloading atleast 2 tough triple combos with ease . No one else seems capable of that . And I think it’s a pipe dream to expect any of the other senior international ladies to develop 3A/quad in this Olympic year . It’s pretty clear that those jumps need to be forged in junior days to be remotely reliable . I’d like to be proved wrong though!

Alysa

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

At this point I think they should, maybe controversially, have a different worlds and Olympics team. The skaters they don't think will be ready should work towards peaking at worlds, and the others push for Olympics. Should probably have one or two "safe" skaters at each event and then also a wildcard.

I think that might be fair if the third pick is controversial. But given the depth of Russian women, anyone who makes a team probably only has two or three seasons to be competitive so they'd probably want every big event opportunity they can get to build their legacy. Anna winning an OGM then a second world title makes her unquestionably the greatest Russian woman, with a career looking closer to that of Kristi and Yuna's and less like Alina and Tara's.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

I think that might be fair if the third pick is controversial. But given the depth of Russian women, anyone who makes a team probably only has two or three seasons to be competitive so they'd probably want every big event opportunity they can get to build their legacy. Anna winning an OGM then a second world title makes her unquestionably the greatest Russian woman, with a career looking closer to that of Kristi and Yuna's and less like Alina and Tara's.

For some reason the world's 2021 just didn't feel like a world championship. I think the questionable scoring and judging throughout that event potentially tainted the win -in addition to the depth of ladies and the lackluster performances throughout the field. (Although she did deserve to win, and was the strongest skater there).

But I think also they may wait to decide world's until after the Olympics. For the Russian ladies, if somebody falls apart at Olympics, I think their career might be over.

 

[wakuwaku]

With that weak jumping technique girl have able to jump three type of quads.

Which makes you wonder why it's considered 'weak' in the first place. Do you know that many women skaters with quads with any type of technique? No. From that angle any technique allowing jumping quads more or less consistently (i.e. getting massive scores) should be considered strong. After all, quadsters are rarely have troubles with triples - it has positive effect on a less difficult jumps in terms of consistency. Which majority of skaters without quads but with 'strong' technique on triples - can't boast about. Efficiency is what matters the most in sport and any legal means of getting results should be called good. Why it's not the case in figure skating community - I don't understand. It's just illogical.

I think the questionable scoring and judging throughout that event potentially tainted the win

Although she did deserve to win, and was the strongest skater there

I see a contradiction here. Nevertheless, I agree that WC was really good only in man category. In ladies it was rather weak because many skaters were in bad form and judging was indeed bad. I would made this podium then
1) Anna Shcherbakova
2) Kaori Sakamoto
3) Olga Mikutina
for example. Considering all missed URs, unadequate PCS etc.

I think this topic could benefit to be renamed to power levels or power tiers topic - as it was in previous seasons. Because basically it discusses the same thing - comparing strength of this season's women top skaters - but with current name it looks too nationality-biased, in my opinion.

 

[Jeanie19]

Which makes you wonder why it's considered 'weak' in the first place. Do you know that many women skaters with quads with any type of technique? No. From that angle any technique allowing jumping quads more or less consistently (i.e. getting massive scores) should be considered strong. After all, quadsters are rarely have troubles with triples - it has positive effect on a less difficult jumps in terms of consistency. Which majority of skaters without quads but with 'strong' technique on triples - can't boast about. Efficiency is what matters the most in sport and any legal means of getting results should be called good. Why it's not the case in figure skating community - I don't understand. It's just illogical.


I see a contradiction here. Nevertheless, I agree that WC was really good only in man category. In ladies it was rather weak because many skaters were in bad form and judging was indeed bad. I would made this podium then
1) Anna Shcherbakova
2) Kaori Sakamoto
3) Olga Mikutina
for example. Considering all missed URs, unadequate PCS etc.

I think this topic could benefit to be renamed to power levels or power tiers topic - as it was in previous seasons. Because basically it discusses the same thing - comparing strength of this season's women top skaters - but with current name it looks too nationality-biased, in my opinion.

Welcome to Golden Skate, post often.

 

[Lzbee]

Efficiency is what matters the most in sport and any legal means of getting results should be called good. Why it's not the case in figure skating community - I don't understand. It's just illogical.

This is something that a non-skating friend of mine also brought up when I was discussing figure skating's issues with him. It makes a lot of sense - the most efficient technique should be considered the best technique.

HOWEVER, there is one big problem in skating in that the different jumps are defined by how you enter into and take off for them. If we went with the most efficient technique then they'd kind of all meld into one jump.

Imo if we're going to consider edges important then technical issues that make the jump vague should be called out. But if we're okay with considering a jump just a jump then the different base values need to be eradicated. In fact, that may put more focus on blade work (or it may just put more focus on more rotations).

 

[Amei]

At this point I think they should, maybe controversially, have a different worlds and Olympics team. The skaters they don't think will be ready should work towards peaking at worlds, and the others push for Olympics. Should probably have one or two "safe" skaters at each event and then also a wildcard.

I disagree with the idea of intentionally setting up different teams, most all of the skaters that we'd all agree as likely going to the Olympics have either never had the opportunity to go to Worlds or go to a normal Worlds (in the case of Shcherbakova and Trusova who went to fan-less/bubble competition) - why should fill in the blank skater not have the opportunity to go to Worlds over someone they beat?

 

[wakuwaku]

HOWEVER, there is one big problem in skating in that the different jumps are defined by how you enter into and take off for them. If we went with the most efficient technique then they'd kind of all meld into one jump.

Imo if we're going to consider edges important then technical issues that make the jump vague should be called out.

I meant the so called prerotation first and foremost. It's not going to "meld into one jump" since it's inevitable for any jump. If we are talking about edges - I am against too much scrutiny on that front as well. Whether it's lutz or flip - all of them in the end takes off from both edges.

But if we're okay with considering a jump just a jump then the different base values need to be eradicated.

I am not agree here. As practice and statistics shows - despite majority of new and young skaters are jumping heavily prerotated/flat-edge lutzes - they are experiencing most problems, falls and issues with it. Not with salchovs, loops or even flips. I recommend to watch Russian novice 'elements' competitions - its very telling there. Difference in difficulty exists.

Also, what makes me puzzled about all that 'good technique' terminology - is often heared narration (by TSL channel, for example) that it's good because it lasts longer, more healthy for the body and allows to jump decently even by adult skaters. By in fact - it's not truth? If we look at some 'good technique' athletes such as Polina Tsurskaya or Karolina Kostner - we can see that they had huge problems with URs and health. And the older/higher they get - the more issues with jumps they were experiencing. And what merit in 'good' technique is if it results in mostly underrotated jump (despite it being huge and with beautiful 'delayed' rotation)? I suspect strongly that if they were taught 'bad' modern technique - they in fact would last longer. Well, maybe TSL is right about 'good' technique - as long as it concerns doubles. Triples and quads? Not so much.

 

[Lzbee]

If we look at some 'good technique' athletes such as Polina Tsurskaya or Karolina Kostner - we can see that they had huge problems with URs and health.

The reason they have trouble with URs is because they're doing more rotation in the air.

Let's say you have skater 1 who has 270 degree pre-rotation but no underrotation and compare it with skater 2 who has 40 degree pre-rotation but 100 degree underrotation. Skater 2 is rotating a total of 140 degrees on the ice vs skater 1 rotating 270 degrees.

The judging doesn't account for this because skater 1 will be rewarded with positive GOE for a smooth landing but skater 2 will be penalised despite having more rotation in the air.

 

[yume]

At this point I don’t see any one troubling the Russian ladies . Even if you take ultra -c elements out of the equation, the Russian ladies are backloading atleast 2 tough triple combos with ease . No one else seems capable of that . And I think it’s a pipe dream to expect any of the other senior international ladies to develop 3A/quad in this Olympic year . It’s pretty clear that those jumps need to be forged in junior days to be remotely reliable . I’d like to be proved wrong though!

Rino Matsuike is not only backloading all her combos (in SP and FS) but is also attempting a 3A as first jump in FS.