- Joined
- Feb 14, 2013
No, she shouldn't. Not if the 3 Russians skate their best. Gracie Gold is frankly better than these performances as well, if she can put two clean programs together.
Ashley should be capable of winning the World Championship if she skated clean SP+LP, as compared to the rest of the field this year, but she is very underserved by her programs. She has maturity over the rest of the field but the actual choreography and artistry isn't there. It could be but it isn't.
The triple toe was underrotated. Look at where her toepick leaves the ice. She turns on the ice an extra 1/4 turn before jumping. It's a cheat. She even does it on her double toeloop.
You're right that it was not a 133 program. It was actually quite a bit less than that; she was 20 points overscored. Two underrotated jumps, rather weak transitions, average skating skills, average footwork, mediocore spins (even less than that, given the mistake on the last spin of not holding the sit position), and the choreography isn't very good.
Scored correctly:
2Axel, +1 GOE = 3.8
3Lutz+3Toe< , +1.5 GOE = 9.95
2Axel+2Toe, 0 GOE = 4.6
FSSp4, +1 GOE = 3.5
CCoSp3, +1 GOE = 3.5
(jump bonus starts)
3Loop+1Looop+3Sal<, +.5 GOE = 9.81
3Flip, +.5 GOE = 6.18
3Loop, +1.5 GOE = 6.66
StSq4, +.5 GOE = 4.25 (received +3 GOE on this, which is one of the biggest jokes ever. Slow, shallow edges)
3Lutz, +1 GOE = 7.3
ChSq, +1.5 GOE = 3.05
FCCoSp1 (failed to do sit spin position), +1 GOE = 2.5
Tech Total = 65.1
Skating Skills - 8.0 = 12.8
Transitions - 7.5 = 12.0
Performance - 8.5 = 13.6
Choreography - 7.75 = 12.4
Interpretation - 8.0 = 12.8
PCS = 63.6
Total = 128.7
Granted, everyone "at the top" is overscored for the most part, but CoP scores are supposed to be given in absolutes. If you compare this performance to the best of Yu-Na Kim, Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Michelle Kwan, or Sasha Cohen, then this is accurate for what she actually put out on the ice. It was strong and confident but not incredibly skilled or spectacular or musical. Those marks are the most generous I could possibly give. It doesn't even feel totally right calling her 3Lutz+3Toe or Choreography Sequence to be worthy of "+1.5" GOE. Her choreography sequence consists of a couple turns, a single slightly-above-average spiral, and a slightly-above-average split jump, all separated by crossovers.
I'd be careful if I were you, that sounds dangerously close to having your own opinion.
Personally I thought Ashley deserved to win, but the points were ridiculous, both of her 3-3s were pretty questionable and I have never gotten the love for her FS, it's just a very superficial program with not many transitions, few moves that actually reflect the music and a lot of fierce face towards the end (The faces throughout the "One day I'll fly away" section were just so incredibly mawkish). It's a 130ish skate but that's it. Karen Chen was also ridiculously overscored, I really like her but the amount of crossovers she does in her free combined with five clean triples does not make a 135 skate, at all. Still I'm really glad to see her skate reasonably well considering her struggles this season. I also didn't think Polina was as far behind the top three as the judges would have you believe it, yes she was also overscored but not nearly to the same extent as the top three.

That's way higher than Mao's Sochi FS... ridiculous, and Mao's Rach 2 is a masterpiece. 
)