I would say don’t get your hopes up. That’s not how the Japanese federation works. They go with the top 3 at Nationals on almost every occasion unless a skater who lands on the podium is a junior or doesn’t have the TES minimums.
possible.Would I be selfish in being okay with Mai’s calls being overlooked at this one event? I’m lowering my expectations, as I have a weird feeling she will place in 4th/5th behind one Junior, but, fourth out of those eligible to be sent to Worlds. Mai actually is scored higher internationally than domestically. She lost to Hana, at Sectionals… Hana didn’t even go for a 3A in the SP and beat Mai with only one 3A and clean triples in the free skate. I just have a weird feeling Kaori will place higher and then one/two Juniors (Hana), with one/two senior ladies skating the event of their careers
; that is the problem with Mai. She has an upper limit lower than others. I was confident she would make it to the Olympics and then Wakaba and Mana landed their 3As and knocked Mai out without it even being a debate. The 3A is becoming critical. Half will fail. But, it is the half that will land those jumps, that will beat Mai I know. Rika intrigues me. She needs to make sure she has a hard enough triple triple to place in the top 6 after the SP, just to be in the hunt. Mao, and some of the Juniors will be intriguing because they might not place in the top 6 with clean skates due to lower PCS scores. So, will this push them to go for the 3A? I’m fascinated with the strategies involved.I would say don’t get your hopes up. That’s not how the Japanese federation works. They go with the top 3 at Nationals on almost every occasion unless a skater who lands on the podium is a junior or doesn’t have the TES minimums.
That being said, Mai’s clearly being pushed by the federation this year because she is getting very generous technical calling. She wouldn’t have won this event if her URs were called. So, as long as she doesn’t fall apart at Nationals, I see her on the podium. Unless, they go with strict Japanese technical calling we see in regional competitions, in which case she will be in a bad position. But, I don’t see that happening because her coach is favored by the fed. She’ll likely get the Kaori treatment. So, as long as she doesn’t fall or pop she should be fine.
I still think Rika can land on the podium if she adds the lutz and has a clean 3-3 in the SP. Her LPs have been getting underscored because messing up the SP has meant she has gone earlier in the competition and , as a result, her PCS and GOE has been low. Her LP in Sheffield was the best of the event and if she were in the Top 3 after the SP, she would have won the LP and perhaps the entire event. I think she knows what she needs to do. The question for me is if she is healthy enough to do enough reps of the jumps in SP to be near the top of the event heading into the long. But, a podium place is absolutely in her grasp if she can do that. Or, perhaps a 4th place given that Mao might win this entire event but won’t be eligible. Certainly not guaranteed but
I wouldn’t say that Mihara’s scores are higher internationally than in Japan. I even remember this one year when she broke 220 and was still off the podium. Japan was 100% going for her last year, but then she made uncharacteristic mistakes in the free skate and….Higuchi and Kawabe landed their 3As and the rest is history. The field is deeper in Japan than it is internationally and there are talented girls with higher TES than her that have won medals already. For this reason, she won’t be given any favors if she’s off the podium. The solution is simple, of course. Just get on the podium then! She’ll be just fine if she does.I’m lowering my expectations, as I have a weird feeling she will place in 4th/5th behind one Junior, but, fourth out of those eligible to be sent to Worlds. Mai actually is scored higher internationally than domestically. She lost to Hana, at Sectionals… Hana didn’t even go for a 3A in the SP and beat Mai with only one 3A and clean triples in the free skate. I just have a weird feeling Kaori will place higher and then one/two Juniors (Hana), with one/two senior ladies skating the event of their careers
Realistic to expect 3As from Rika if she makes it to 4CC and Worlds? It's a month from Nationals to rejig that 3A, and another month at Worlds. I would expect a single 3A in the free at 4CC and then another 3A in the short at Worlds, but who knows?
I do think it’s unrealistic to expect a 3A from Rika this season. A 3A is not an ordinary triple and if she’s going to attempt it then she needs to land it cleanly. Otherwise, she shouldn’t bother, especially since she’s not entirely healed. It’s beneficial for her to skate cleanly and she doesn’t need a 3A to do well at Nationals or even Worlds. A 7-triple layout repeating both 3F and 3Lz is much more realistic. I expect the 3A to return next season.
There is definitely a penchant for belittling Mai Mihara's achievements on this thread and the exceptionally high quality of her artistry, expression, superb skating with buttery smooth edges, intricate blade work and lovely transitions in between her consistent jumps and excellent performances overall. Based on a number of these comments, one would have never thought that Mai had won four major championships in a row this year: Four Continents, two Grand Prix events and the Grand Prix final by 11 points and the only one at the competition to break 200. It seems there is almost a hankering for a scenario in which she can be lowballed off the podium again by playing into the Japanese Fed hands of pulling a repeat of her highly unjust placement at last year's Nationals. I enjoy Mana's skating but she received exceptionally generous tech rulings at Nationals and scoring overall compared to Mai, which led to Mai's unjust exclusion from the Olympics and Worlds with the second highest international average of ALL women eligible to compete at Worlds. Imagine a fed kicking a likely silver medalist for Worlds out of even attending the competition one season and then following up by kicking Mai out of Worlds again after winning EVERY international competition she entered between the two National competitions. I even think it would have helped Mana's development not to have gone to these competitions due to her low scores which is likely because she had to shoulder so much burden to achieve such high scores at such important competitions when lacking in the depth of experience that Mai had, and partially due to the Japanese feds' refusal to make the proper tech calls at Nationals. Mana's beneficial scoring over Mai at Nationals is attributed to Mana being the only representative of the powerful coach Hamada at the Olympics and Worlds, while Kaori has the same coach as Mai. Besides, it is incorrect to say that skaters are not chosen for Worlds or Olympics when placing fourth or lower at Nationals because in 2009 Miki Ando finished fourth at Nationals, and second (not first like Mai) at the Grand Prix final and was still chosen to go to the Olympics and Worlds.
So, do I. My point about Mai earlier was that she does need to end up on the podium for her to be chosen. (Or behind juniors as mentioned) Not because the Japanese federation doesn’t support her, but because that’s the way the Japanese federation chooses their spots.
Looks like she's only doing 2A and triple toeloop, salchow, and loop in the SP. But she landed all jumps cleanly in the official practice.
She earned both the SP and FS minimums at Egna Trophy last year
