2016 US Nationals Senior Ladies SP

StitchMonkey · Jan 15, 2016

mrrice said:
Unless they're hiding an Injury, I just couldn't leave Ashley or Gracie off the team unless they completely bomb which I can't see happening. However.......If it does happen, I'd rather see Courtney, or Angela Wang make it if Polina doesn't skate well. As I said, I haven't seen Polina skate anywhere this season so, I really don't have an opinion on where she'll place. Karen Chen has been quite impressive this season and if she fix her horrible "I" spin, She might skate things up. IMO, There are so few skater's who can do a decent I spin. Mirai and Yulia are the only two with I spins that I really enjoy.

I am cynical enough that i can picture anyone and everyone having meltdowns. I don't think it will happen, but i also would not shocked.

Polina, I think is one that is better in person. I was surprised how much more i liked her when i saw her in person. That being said, her free skate is not clicking well this season. Courtney likely has a better argument to go to worlds than Angela, and is certainly one I could see shake things up.

Also, can I get your opinion on the I spin of Tyler Pierce?

https://youtu.be/Zf1PvWOMBmY?t=270

second example

https://youtu.be/5iEX_sdA5hc?t=191

mrrice · Jan 15, 2016

StitchMonkey said:
I am cynical enough that i can picture anyone and everyone having meltdowns. I don't think it will happen, but i also would not shocked.

Polina, I think is one that is better in person. I was surprised how much more i liked her when i saw her in person. That being said, her free skate is not clicking well this season. Courtney likely has a better argument to go to worlds than Angela, and is certainly one I could see shake things up.

Also, can I get your opinion on the I spin of Tyler Pierce?

https://youtu.be/Zf1PvWOMBmY?t=270

second example

https://youtu.be/5iEX_sdA5hc?t=191

Holy Cow!!!!!!:shocked: Who is THAT??? Am I 100 Years Old??? I have no idea who that young lady is but, THAT is a great I spin. Her arm positions are, IMO, what make her spin superior to most other skaters. Thank you for posting that clip...... :points:

StitchMonkey · Jan 15, 2016

mrrice said:
Holy Cow!!!!!!:shocked: Who is THAT??? Am I 100 Years Old??? I have no idea who that young lady is but, THAT is a great I spin. Her arm positions are, IMO, what make her spin superior to most other skaters. Thank you for posting that clip......

She was 7th at US Nationals last year. She is only 17 so could have done JGP, but held out for some senior b's which she got and ended up with two bronzes in challenger events this season. She can however be a bit unstable - she was at junior worlds last year and did not do well at all. Her I spin is to die for.

I have to plug my favorite program of hers now

http://web.icenetwork.com/video/v334925983/?query=2015%2BGlacier%2BFalls Skip to about 36:40 in. It *should* be free/subscription free. Sadly i can not link a better version as she dropped this for an old SP after that performance. I think she uses the other for an ex, but I bet you will enjoy it.

narcissa · Jan 15, 2016

When are Ladies' SPs scheduled for?? I'm so excited..

ice coverage · Jan 15, 2016

narcissa said:
When are Ladies' SPs scheduled for?? I'm so excited..

The date and time are right at the top of the OP.

narcissa · Jan 15, 2016

golden411icecoverage said:
The date and time are right at the top of the OP.

Oh stupid me... thanks.

Icey · Jan 15, 2016

desertskates said:
Here's a question for you all---is there anyone who doesn't feel that Gracie and Ashley will not be 1 and 2 at the end of this? Anyone with a weird gut feeling that we all might be in for an oddball shakeup here?

I see a repeat of the Olympic year with either Ashley or Gracie finishing off the podium.

Jammers · Jan 15, 2016

StitchMonkey said:
I would not be shocked if they do not go one two. Strange things have happened. I could sadly see Gracie popping her flip into a double (thus getting a zero) and falling on her 3Z... something like that is not out of the scope of possible for her and could be really hard to prop up if others really nail it.

I also would not be surprised if there are some that think it could be time for a changing of the guard/shake up. I could see some people having a "if y'all mess up, you ain't getting kindness anymore". So no, it would not shock me if one of them messes up and gets some harsh scores.

If Gracie pops her flip yet again in the SP she might as well not even go into the K&C because Frank will be beyond pissed.

mrrice · Jan 15, 2016

Jammers said:
If Gracie pops her flip yet again in the SP she might as well not even go into the K&C because Frank will be beyond pissed.

From a scoring standpoint. How much more valuable is a flip than doing a three turn into a loop? Isn't that what Ashley does? Doesn't Gracie have a decent loop?

StitchMonkey · Jan 15, 2016

mrrice said:
From a scoring standpoint. How much more valuable is a flip than doing a three turn into a loop? Isn't that what Ashley does? Doesn't Gracie have a decent loop?

http://static.isu.org/media/207718/1944-sptc-sov-communication-2015-2016.pdf

page two of the above has the values.

The base value of a flip is worth 5.3 the base of a loop is 5.1. There is no formal rules for how much the entrances are worth.

desertskates · Jan 15, 2016

I think Gracie going with the loop just would have been the much better plan of attack for this program. Who knows? Maybe that's what we'll see at nationals.

mrrice · Jan 15, 2016

StitchMonkey said:
http://static.isu.org/media/207718/1944-sptc-sov-communication-2015-2016.pdf

page two of the above has the values.

The base value of a flip is worth 5.3 the base of a loop is 5.1. There is no formal rules for how much the entrances are worth.

Really. Thanks StitchMonkey. I guess in a field as deep as the US and the rest of World have. A skater has to go for as many points as possible. Without Tuk at Worlds, I guess Gracie will have the highest Base Value in her programs. Is that correct?

BTW< Have the skaters arrived in town? I keep looking at The Weather Channel and they continue to talk about a drastic temperature change hitting the area this afternoon. Are there any locals who can shed some light on this subject.

StitchMonkey · Jan 15, 2016

mrrice said:
Really. Thanks StitchMonkey. I guess in a field as deep as the US and the rest of World have. A skater has to go for as many points as possible. Without Tuk at Worlds, I guess Gracie will have the highest Base Value in her programs. Is that correct?

Part of it also is perception. Some feel that doing the hardest content makes you look better over all, more so than the math.

And no, she likely will not have the highest base value.

Evgenia has all her jumps in the second half (3F+3T and 3L)
Elena has her combo (3L+3T) in the second half and a 3Z at the start, so the second half bonus puts her above Gracie.
Mao... who knows what she will do but i likely will be more.
Satoko does the same layout that Gracie is trying.
Rika Hongo also likely would be higher as she has a 3F+3T at the start and a 3Z in the second half - so slightly more bonus than Gracie.

I suspect I am forgetting at least one, so. Please add to the list and don't yell at me... please.

Edit: as to your second part. A lot of skaters do say when they leave on twitter...so that is one place to keep your eye on. 7K made a comment about "starting" to head off two days ago.

mrrice · Jan 15, 2016

StitchMonkey said:
Part of it also is perception. Some feel that doing the hardest content makes you look better over all, more so than the math.

And no, she likely will not have the highest base value.

Evgenia has all her jumps in the second half (3F+3T and 3L)
Elena has her combo (3L+3T) in the second half and a 3Z at the start, so the second half bonus puts her above Gracie.
Mao... who knows what she will do but i likely will be more.
Satoko does the same layout that Gracie is trying.
Rika Hongo also likely would be higher as she has a 3F+3T at the start and a 3Z in the second half - so slightly more bonus than Gracie.

I suspect I am forgetting at least one, so. Please add to the list and don't yell at me... please.

Edit: as to your second part. A lot of skaters do say when they leave on twitter...so that is one place to keep your eye on. 7K made a comment about "starting" to head off two days ago.

I think Worlds will also depend more than usual on the Judging Panel. If everyone skates clean, I think Evgenia, due to her TES added with her beyond her years PCS, would have to be my pick to win Worlds. Rod is also great and I'd have to place her second. After that, if everyone skates clean, I have to go with Mao for the Bronze and Gracie in 4th.

Layback11 · Jan 15, 2016

mrrice said:
Really. Thanks StitchMonkey. I guess in a field as deep as the US and the rest of World have. A skater has to go for as many points as possible. Without Tuk at Worlds, I guess Gracie will have the highest Base Value in her programs. Is that correct?

BTW< Have the skaters arrived in town? I keep looking at The Weather Channel and they continue to talk about a drastic temperature change hitting the area this afternoon. Are there any locals who can shed some light on this subject.

Mao (3A, harder combo) and Evgenia (backloading, arm variations) have higher BVs.

NaVi · Jan 15, 2016

Gold's SP BV at TEB was 32.46 and that's with being given a level 3 step sequence which is .5 difference(though there should have been at least a ! and probably more on the flip). If she received a level 4 StSq and did a 3Lo her BV would be 32.74.

Medvedeva's BV at the GPF was 33.10(arm variation doesn't matter).

Elena has her combo (3L+3T) in the second half and a 3Z at the start,

I think Elena will someday need to put her combo in the bonus, but the only reason she did a 3Lo+3T was because of a poor landing on the 3Lz.

Jammers · Jan 15, 2016

Frank having Gracie do the flip in the SP has been a terrible idea from the start. She lost SA because of it and you would think after popping it again at the GPF they would go back to the loop which is a more stable jump for her and doesn't get much less in terms of points.

gkelly · Jan 15, 2016

Layback11 said:
Mao (3A, harder combo) and Evgenia (backloading, arm variations) have higher BVs.

The arm variations have nothing to do with the base values. If anything, they would add to the GOE.

Layback11 · Jan 15, 2016

gkelly said:
The arm variations have nothing to do with the base values. If anything, they would add to the GOE.

Oh, I see. Makes sense. Still higher because of the backloading, though.

ssffww · Jan 15, 2016

If Gracie doubles in the short she gets zero points. No single jump (aside from axel) in the short counts anymore if it's less than a triple. New rule this season. So she has to go for the triple. Three turns into a loop is quite common and doesn't cost you the jump. Ashley still gains points.

2016 US Nationals Senior Ladies SP

StitchMonkey

mrrice

StitchMonkey

narcissa

ice coverage

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narcissa

Icey

Jammers

mrrice

StitchMonkey

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NaVi

Jammers

gkelly

Layback11

ssffww

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