Han Yan 3 quads planned ? interesting...
2017 Four Continents Men SP
- Thread starter Mrs. P
- Start date
Han Yan 3 quads planned ? interesting...
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2012
still strong in the game...:cool14:
let's take some bets how many pages this thread will have at the end of the competition, let's say until Men's LP starts - I predict 125 pages
and more to come later
let's take some bets how many pages this thread will have at the end of the competition, let's say until Men's LP starts - I predict 125 pages
and more to come later
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2014
Compared to Nationals, the only change in his LP layout is the order of his 4T, then the 4T-2T-2Lo?
(curious if he really lands five quads again or sticks to a 4-quad program).
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- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
I kind of been lurking on this board for a while now but felt like commenting today after seeing these layouts just to say that either there's a typo on Patrick's planned layout or he is planning to Zayak! He's repeating 4T, 3A and 3T?
Also, Nathan Chen became the chillest of the sQuad members, by apparently scaling back to 4 quads only again. Who'd have thought?
I felt like adding to the page count too!
Edited to add:
For comparison purposes (and math!), here are the Base Values of each layout (assuming level 4 for Step Sequence and Spins):
SP:
CHEN: 53.15
JIN: 51.33
UNO: 49.85
HANYU: 49.75
YAN: 43.73
CHAN: 43.40
FS:
JIN: 110.78
UNO: 104.64
HANYU: 103.43
CHEN: 102.12 (108.06 if he decides to go for a YOLO 4S)
CHAN: 92.76 (assuming 3A-2T and not 3A-3T)
YAN: 92.63
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
To me, it seems like "whoever gives the better performance" ought to win anyway, regardless of past results. How can there be a sport where the person who does not give the best performance nevertheless is declared the winner?
But I know what you mean. In boxing, for instance, the champion is always favored over the challenger. The rational goes like this. The champion had to beat someone decisively to become champion. If you want to be the next champion, then you, in your turn, have to clobber the guy, not just eke out a questionable victory be a point or two.
(Heh, heh. The first post on page 24, assuming that you have your settimgs on the forum default of 15 posts per page.)
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2013
On second thought, I agree with you.
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2013
I wonder if we'll get to over 50 pages before the competition starts? :scratch:
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
Thanks for joining in, and welcome!
What a first post!
Thank you, Mathman. I'm probably going to go back to lurkdom but I'll probably pipe in from time to time now I've taken the first step out of the shadows.
Also, the BV calculations in my post are the result of me having fun using this score calculator. I've been messing around with it for possible alternate layouts too.
When everyone does similar things and make similar number of mistakes or no mistakes, the difference between them is small because generally nobody is best in everything and each person has their own strength & weakness. There is no clear better performance. It's mostly about who you prefer. (That's why bigger feds try to influence smaller feds to vote for their athletes.) From the feds' perspective, it's a waste of resources to support someone whose track records have shown they can't deliver under pressure. (The only exception is ladies. I see many feds prefers/support ladies with the best star quality, not necessarily the best consistency because ladies' skating receives the most attention from the media and the public in most countries.)
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It depends his SP score & placement, as well as how well he does in the first half of the LP. If he gets a good SP score, lands 4 quads & 3A in the LP and feels still have energy for another quad, it's very possible he will do the 5th quad.
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- Joined
- Jul 9, 2014
Easily........:agree: By Friday.....I'm thinking we're going to be closer to 50 and I bet we'll make it to 100 by the time the event is over. We'll have to check back here and see if we were right.
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- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
I wonder if people will be changing any of their predictions based on Shoma's new FS layout. He may be more of a threat to the podium if he lands everything he's planning, because not only has he increased his BV above Yuzuru's now (and is much closer to the 5-quad BVs), but he actually gets much better PCs than Nathan or Boyang.
Anyways, I wish the best to everyone. May they all land everything and give us an amazing competition. And then repeat it at Worlds. If wishes were horses or how that saying goes...
Anyways, I wish the best to everyone. May they all land everything and give us an amazing competition. And then repeat it at Worlds. If wishes were horses or how that saying goes...
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2015
"may they land everything" i doubt it.. at this point, it's just too crazy IMHO....
I do not wish it but I doubt that skaters bringing brand new quads so late in the season will land everything.... Even Yuzuru has had issues integrating his 4Loop. Are the young kids so confident that they can just learn a new quad and bring it to the next event and land everything just like that??? We will see...
But this is not Yuri on Ice.. this is real stuff...
I do not wish it but I doubt that skaters bringing brand new quads so late in the season will land everything.... Even Yuzuru has had issues integrating his 4Loop. Are the young kids so confident that they can just learn a new quad and bring it to the next event and land everything just like that??? We will see...
But this is not Yuri on Ice.. this is real stuff...
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
I change my prediction. The both of them will have lower scores and they would've just stuck to their old program. They are both foolish for trying to land 4Lo at this stage of the game. Plus adding one more quad as a part of their program is crazy. It takes time to build up that stamina to be able to land four or five quads. I wish them luck and chalk this up to being a practice run for next year. Hopefully they'll switch back before worlds.
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You are using a key word here. "Integrating". Which is different than putting a jump out after a nothing before it (and after it, since another quad NOT integrated in the program is coming).
Yes... the quad "arms race" makes for great drama and excitement, but at this stage I fear it will simply become a splatfest, which I don't think anybody wants to see. Cleanest skate will probably win, no matter what the BV...
I think the best chances of being the victorious "last ones standing"... will go to those who have spent many years building up their basic skills, their core strength and musculature, and especially - their stamina. Basically Chan and Hanyu... but even they are pushing their limits...
I don't think the skaters themselves even believe they can do these programs clean... I think they just want to put it all out there now, and spend the next year trying to stabilise them in time for the Olympics...
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- Joined
- Jan 10, 2017
Yeah, I agree with this. 4CC is a good opportunity to experiment because it's more of a low-stress competition compared to Worlds. It's another chance to test out a layout/quad in front of an audience and get those kinks out. Boyang and Shoma are particularly vulnerable to this late addition of a 4Lo, more so than Nathan who has had good showings with his layouts in two competitions.
I expect splatfests, but I will continue to hope for relatively clean programs.
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