2018-2019 State of Japanese Men's Skating

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

At this point, I am hoping that Shoma finds an excuse to skip Nationals and rest. There's no joy in watching him stumble through again for a Hanyu-less threepeat and an automatic national team spot that he doesn't need, as both he and Hanyu will be picked for Worlds regardless. Let the rest of the field fight it out in a free-for-all for the Nationals title and the automatic spot.

Shoma could actually use a tune-up and confidence builder like Japanese Nationals heading towards 4CC and Worlds. If he's healthy, he should do it. He's been in a bit of a slump, if you can call being the only skater to always clear 275 this season, a 'slump'! His programs could use some more mileage in a relatively no-pressure environment.

 

[zanadude]

Nice clean skate by Ryuji Hino! Good showings by the lower guys thusfar.

 

[zanadude]

Well, we have an issue here. Daisuke Takahashi is well on his way to proving that he is clearly the third best male skater that Japan has to offer...

 

[yume]

Well, yes. But he is not competing for spots so Keiji and Kazuki have all their chances to go to worlds.
Congrats to Koshiro Shimada for the junior worlds spot that is basically 100% his at this moment.

Sad for Shun Sato. I hope that he will at least deliver a clean free like at junior nats.

Shoma and Shun (a 14yo boy) are the only ones who have landed clean quads in SP.......and not so many attempted quads. That shows the level of the field.

 

[Mrs. P]

They wouldn't send Dai to a senior b to get tes minimims?

 

[Interspectator]

Yes, they can. If Dai wants to go, and he is chosen, then it wouldn't be too much trouble to find a B competition and get the Minimum.

 

[yume]

Till now he's saying that he doesn't want to go to worlds. But we never know, he can change his mind, and fed adore him.

 

[Shanshani]

Eh, while he didn't do well today, if I were JSF I would need some convincing not to send Kazuki to Worlds, given his performance last year when Shoma was really not looking solid and the pressure was really on to keep Japan's spots, as well as his GP medal this season. Sure, if Kazuki does badly enough in the FS and Dai or Keiji do really well, then I would reconsider, but IMO the presumption should be in Kazuki's favor. Not sure what JSF's rules are, however.

 

[yume]

Sota plans a quad in his free tomorrow https://mobile.twitter.com/sotayamamoto_i/status/1076443775654715392

 

[Dreamer57]

Not sure what JSF's rules are, however.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tsubakindy/status/1065311496362553344

From balabam's post #1936 in the ladies thread:
the national champion,
2nd or 3rd position at nats and top 2 GPF standing/top 3 ISU PB,
Above plus top 3 world ranking/ season's best + special consideration such as injuries - this will be Yuzuru

It would be interesting if Koshiro maintains his 3rd place by the end of nationals. He is a joy to watch!

 

[champs]

Congrats to Koshiro Shimada for the junior worlds spot that is basically 100% his at this moment.

I wouldn't say so just yet as the SP result here is similar to that of the Junior Nats (sans Tsuboi's score) and we know what happened in the free.

 

[champs]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tsubakindy/status/1065311496362553344

From balabam's post #1936 in the ladies thread:
the national champion,
2nd or 3rd position at nats and top 2 GPF standing/top 3 ISU PB,
Above plus top 3 world ranking/ season's best + special consideration

1) The twitter account's translation of the second spot criteria is incorrect: Not top 3 ISU PB but top 3 World Standing;
2) Your summary of the third spot criteira isn't quite right: one of the three criterion for the second spot OR top 3 Season World Ranking OR top 3 Season's Best Score.

 

[yume]

I wouldn't say so just yet as the SP result here is similar to that of the Junior Nats (sans Tsuboi's score) and we know what happened in the free.

The only one who can take that spot away from him is Shun Sato (because he placed above him on junior nats podium) and maybe Yuma Kagiyama (because he medaled in JGP). But i bet more on Shun Sato. But the boy need to skate absolutely clean, land his two quads and two 3As and everything else with good quality, to force judges to give him respectable GOEs and PCS (he got crucified in PCS in SP). And he need Koshiro to bomb a bit to close that 16 points gap and beat him. And even if Shun beat him, Koshiro still has his JGPF medal in his favor.

 

[champs]

The only one who can take that spot away from him is Shun Sato (because he placed above him on junior nats podium) and maybe Yuma Kagiyama (because he medaled in JGP). But i bet more on Shun Sato. But the boy need to skate absolutely clean, land his two quads and two 3As and everything else with good quality, to force judges to give him respectable GOEs and PCS (he got crucified in PCS in SP). And he need Koshiro to bomb a bit to close that 16 points gap and beat him. And even if Shun beat him, Koshiro still has his JGPF medal in his favor.

Koshiro meets more bullet points in the criteria due to his international results this season, so yes, he's more likely to be chosen than the rest, but you know that already before the SP. If any of Yuma/Yuto/Shun ends up first overall among the junior participants while Koshiro fourth or below among the junior participants, JSF may choose whoever that first-among-the-juniors over Koshiro as the nationals results have traditionally weighed more in JSF's selection decision making.

 

[zanadude]

Koshiro meets more bullet points in the criteria due to his international results this season, so yes, he's more likely to be chosen than the rest, but you know that already before the SP.

Apparently you don't know that it's already been long established that more "bullet points" means nothing. Ticking any of the bullet points is enough to get you in the pool of consideration. Then the bullet points are thrown in the wastebasket, and JSF makes their selection from the pool by whatever criterion they want.

 

[zanadude]

Eh, while he didn't do well today, if I were JSF I would need some convincing not to send Kazuki to Worlds, given his performance last year

I really dislike this way of thinking. What happened last season shouldn't have any bearing on this season's world championship.

 

[champs]

Apparently you don't know that it's already been long established that more "bullet points" means nothing. Ticking any of the bullet points is enough to get you in the pool of consideration. Then the bullet points are thrown in the wastebasket, and JSF makes their selection from the pool by whatever criterion they want.

Had you read my post carefully you would have understood that I do know JSF doesn't necessarily choose the skater who meets more bullet points than everyone else for the spot determined by multi-condition criterion. For the second spot Shimada already meats 4/5, whereas Kagiyama and Kishina meet only 2/5 and Sato meet 1/5, so no matter the outcome of the Nationals (which could at most add 1) Shimada meets strictly more points than the three I mentioned in my original post, yet I clearly said JSF may choose any of the latter three over Shimada.

I do admit though that the part you quoted wasn't accurately stated but I didn't write it all out because it is tedious with Shimada-Kishina/Kagiyama comparison and Shimada-Sato comparison explained separately. (But I do now.) For why Shimada is more likely than Kishina or Kagiyama before entering the senior nationals is obvious because Shimada placed in the top three at Jr Nats while the 2Ks didn't, Shimada participated in the JGPF while the 2Ks didn't, Shimada placed higher than the 2Ks in both ISU season's world ranking and the ISU seasons best total score ranking. Simply there is nothing JSF can consider that gives either Kishina or Kagiyama edge over Shimada. For the Shimada-Sato case, Sato placing second over Shimada's third at the Jr Nats is the only thing JSF can consider that may work to Sato's advantage. But this order becomes non-factor as JSF will care about the order of these two skaters' placement at the Sr Nats once it's over. Hence Shimada-Sato case was already reduced to the 3/5 against 0/5 in favor of Shimada before the Sr Nats even starts. I condensed all this into Shimada more likely due to more bullet points met, and yes I guess that was stretching a bit.

 

[Shanshani]

I really dislike this way of thinking. What happened last season shouldn't have any bearing on this season's world championship.

Why not? It clearly matters when it comes to evaluating someone's ability to handle pressure and their potential. Last season, Yuzuru had two mediocre performances at low level competitions prior to the Olympics, clearly he should not have been a lock for the Olympics team since all that matters is the present season.

 

[yume]

I think JSF won't care about last WC, at all.
And about pressure, i think pressure was more on Shoma's and Keiji's shoulders. Kazuki was more the nice surprise who made it to worlds thanks to two withdrawals, and delivered.
I can see fed choosing Keiji even if he always bombs in big comps.

 

[zanadude]

Why not? It clearly matters when it comes to evaluating someone's ability to handle pressure and their potential.

Do sports teams get to carry over wins from the previous season?

Last season, Yuzuru had two mediocre performances at low level competitions prior to the Olympics, clearly he should not have been a lock for the Olympics team since all that matters is the present season.

Yuzuru won a Grand Prix event last season. That alone made him worthy of consideration.