2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[DougDorsey]

Yeah thats why i was little worried for her, i originally thought maybe she picked up an injury as she still has Team Tutberidze in her IG bio and she posts a lot on there so if she had left she would have change that but a poster on another site said that she is very active on tiktok and has posted tiktoks in a new rink so now im leaning towards a team change maybe We will find out when the new season starts i guess.

Here is Lyuba's TikTok account...

TikTok - Make Your Day

www.tiktok.com

One of the girls in her most recent posts looks a little like Polina Shesheleva, which would maybe suggest that Lyuba is with Team Tut, but I'm not sure, and I don't recognize the other girl...

[email protected] ☑️☑️☑️ on TikTok

[email protected] ☑️☑️☑️'s short video with ♬ оригинальный звук

www.tiktok.com

In any case, some of you all are much better detectives than I am, so curious what you're able to glean from her posts. Yes, it does seem like she's quite active on TikTok!

 

[Mariiiiskate]

Here is Lyuba's TikTok account...

TikTok - Make Your Day

www.tiktok.com

One of the girls in her most recent posts looks a little like Polina Shesheleva, which would maybe suggest that Lyuba is with Team Tut, but I'm not sure, and I don't recognize the other girl...

[email protected] ☑️☑️☑️ on TikTok

[email protected] ☑️☑️☑️'s short video with ♬ оригинальный звук

www.tiktok.com

In any case, some of you all are much better detectives than I am, so curious what you're able to glean from her posts. Yes, it does seem like she's quite active!

Yes thats Polina and thats sambo dressing room so i guess this has been a false alarm then.

Could be her parents just dont like the idea of sending their 12 year old daughter to a camp without parents for a long time or she could be recovering from an injury or something. Either way im happy she is ok.

 

[Jontor]

Alysa competed yesterday at the Virtual Peggy Fleming Trophy. It’s an artistic competition, with no quads allowed, but there is a definite improvement to Alysa’s skating skills and speed.

I can't say I agree. I had hoped for more and was a bit underwhelmed. Given that the technical stuff wasn't there it is hard to judge where she stands, but it hasn't changed my opinion on where she might fit in. Still hope that she will surprise me though...

 

[Jontor]

Politicking is a big part as well; Alysa will have the politicking behind her, Tuktamysheva regardless of her accomplishments won't be politicked for very hard. Additionally, in terms of reputation, Tuktamysheva hasn't been saved by it in the past

Look at 2019 between Shcherbakova and Tuktamysheva - a nice duo to look at because they went to the same Challenger event and the same 2 GP events, additionally Shcherbakova and Liu have a lot in common with being a first year senior with only 1 junior year of competition but also having 2 senior National titles behind to their names. There are a lot of components of what goes into PCS (pardon the pun) and I'm not trying to open a debate about whether Shcherbakova did or did not deserve her PCS marks, but I pulled this to point out Tuktamysheva was pretty much the same skater (less not being a reigning World silver medalist) she is going into this season and "reputation" did not keep a first year senior from surpassing her in PCS marks. I'll note out that at GP America in the SP Shcherbakova had a fall on her step sequence, and at China she had edge calls on her quads and an under-rotation on 1 quad, so it's not like she was squeaky clean in the competitions.

	Shcherbakova	Tuktamysheva
CS Lombardia SP PCS	30.64	31.76
CS Lombardia FS PCS	64.32	64.24
GP America SP PCS	31.69	30.86
GP America FS PCS	67.96	64.30
GP China SP PCS	33.43	31.86
GP China FS PCS	67.82	66.50

Love your display here (as I love numbers...yes I'm a nerd).

But you didn't mention that Tuktamysheva wasn't that good in any of those competitions. She had lots of uncertain landings and iffy spins and steps. Not surprisingly, Shcherbakova overtook her pretty quickly in PCS.

 

[Jontor]

Well, I guess we'll see how they measure up against each other at Skate Canada. I still can't imagine that Alysa in her first senior year will have any significant PCS advantage over Liza, but then again, stranger things have happened in figure skating.

Frankly, at this point I am more worried about if there is going to be a Skate Canada at all. Canada has been one of the most lockdown-ish countries in the world, and they did cancel their JGP event.

Right now, the competitions I feel are most uncertain is Skate Canada and the challenger Autumn Classic before that. If Canada wants to cancel them, will they do it in time for another host to step in?

 

[flanker]

Love your display here (as I love numbers...yes I'm a nerd).

But you didn't mention that Tuktamysheva wasn't that good in any of those competitions. She had lots of uncertain landings and iffy spins and steps. Not surprisingly, Shcherbakova overtook her pretty quickly in PCS.

Adding to this, those are Liza's international PCS scores from this season:

Worlds SP	34.47
Worlds FS	69.08
WTT SP	34.92
WTT FS	69.36

So, she gained 3 points more in SP and 5 points more in the FS (even with the fall at Worlds) than the previous season. Yes, she's not typical PCS lady, but overally I guess she should still gain more than a fresh senior unless Alysa shows something divine or the US skating fed will push her really hard. For another comparison, Aliona Kostornaia, a sweetheart of the judges when it comes to the components gained 33.57 and 71.07 at her first GP in 2019 and Alysa will hardly get the same.

 

[Minz]

I can't say I agree. I had hoped for more and was a bit underwhelmed. Given that the technical stuff wasn't there it is hard to judge where she stands, but it hasn't changed my opinion on where she might fit in. Still hope that she will surprise me though...

She’s definitely faster and can hold an edge better. Go look at her as a junior and her now.

And honestly, I really admire skaters who at least try to make improvements, it shows that they actually care about the different aspects of the sport. You can’t expect her to be Carolina Kostner in a few months.

She’s 15! She hasn’t even gone to seniors yet. Let’s give her a chance before we completely rule her out.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

Adding to this, those are Liza's international PCS scores from this season:

Worlds SP	34.47
Worlds FS	69.08
WTT SP	34.92
WTT FS	69.36

So, she gained 3 points more in SP and 5 points more in the FS (even with the fall at Worlds) than the previous season. Yes, she's not typical PCS lady, but overally I guess she should still gain more than a fresh senior unless Alysa shows something divine or the US skating fed will push her really hard. For another comparison, Aliona Kostornaia, a sweetheart of the judges as for the components gained 33.57 and 71.07 at her first GP in 2019 and Alysa will hardly get the same.

Alysa Liu's PCS at the JGPF were equal to/and higher than Alina Zagitova's PCS in her senior debut... I guess that says a lot about the relevance of guessing component scores for events in the beginning of the year.

 

[Jontor]

That's not a guarantee at all. Reputation judging is a thing. Yes. But a lot of that is based on how the national Fed itself ranks their own skaters. That's where a lot of the influence and politics comes from - a lot of that is who the federation itself is politicking FOR. Yes, Alysa is a first year international senior but judges have shown in the last couple years that they are NOT hesitant to reward first year seniors - Alina, Alena, Sasha, Anna, etc all got amazing PCS incredibly rapidly as first year international seniors. Second of all, it would be foolish to ignore Alysa's own international reputation and results. She's the reigning Junior World's bronze medalist and the reigning JGPF silver medalist. She's already proven she can beat and challenge several of Russia's best skaters. She's also a two time US national champion. That IS actually the type of first year international senior pedigree that DOES get good PCS, especially if the USFed politics for her, like Russia does for their top skaters, regardless of if they're first year seniors or not. I mean take a look at the World Team Trophy PCS. Anna's have been increasing steadily and now she's a 3x RusNat champion and reigning World Champion AND her federation backs her. Liza however she didn't get a PCS boast following her World's silver medal. In fact, she was scoring below Kaori (whom she beat at World's) and comparable to Rika (who had a watered down messy skate.) Now that's NOT to say that Alysa WILL be a PCS darling. However, there is NO indication that Liza has ever been either, even following her World's silver medal. Russia only politics for her when they have to and not to any great extent - ie. when Alena wasn't ready for Worlds or when Sasha had a disastrous short. In fact, Liza's PCS DIDN'T rise AT ALL following her World's silver to the World Team Trophy.

I get what you are saying and I kinda agree....but then I disagree as well. And that's because of Anna.

Anna was clearly the third girl from RusFed in season 2019-20 when the 3A started to conquer the world. Everyone talked about Alëna and Sasha and Anna was like the forgotten one (I think Johnny even said that at Skate America). And that was from the RusFed too! It was clear that RusFed wanted Alëna to win that national title, and they did all they could in giving her all the points they could for a clean-ish skate. But it wasn't enough.
The international judges quickly caught up on Anna though, At GPF free she was 4 points behind Alëna on PCS, but at Europeans the judges had already narrowed it down to 1 point. We will never know what had happened at Worlds that season as it was cancelled, but I think Anna might have caught Alëna by then.

And it's funny, last season everyone again was talking about Sasha and Alëna (before she got COVID) and then Kamila, and at nationals, again Anna was not considered the favourite. That was Sasha and Kamila.

I think Anna has proved that politics might be there, but they don't mean much in the end...perhaps we sometimes overthink these things.

 

[Jontor]

She’s definitely faster and can hold an edge better. Go look at her as a junior and her now.

And honestly, I really admire skaters who at least try to make improvements, it shows that they actually care about the different aspects of the sport. You can’t expect her to be Carolina Kostner in a few months.

She’s 15! She hasn’t even gone to seniors yet. Let’s give her a chance before we completely rule her out.

Yeah! Agreed!

I have a suspicious feeling that my not-so-high-expectations of Alysa might be just a simple cultural thing compared to you guys. Hey, I'm Swedish, we don't expect much as it is considered to be unnecessary pressure, so we tend to keep our expectations low. It doesn't mean that I think Alysa has no chance at all...on the contrary, I am very excited to see what she can bring to the mix.

 

[DougDorsey]

Yes thats Polina and thats sambo dressing room so i guess this has been a false alarm then.

Could be her parents just dont like the idea of sending their 12 year old daughter to a camp without parents for a long time or she could be recovering from an injury or something. Either way im happy she is ok.

Relieved! Maybe someone like Polina Tsurskaya stuck around Khrustalny to train the girls, like Lyuba and Polina Shesheleva, who perhaps stayed behind? Or maybe, like you mentioned, Lyuba is recovering from an injury and isn't skating right now.

 

[chasingneverland]

Adding to this, those are Liza's international PCS scores from this season:

Worlds SP	34.47
Worlds FS	69.08
WTT SP	34.92
WTT FS	69.36

So, she gained 3 points more in SP and 5 points more in the FS (even with the fall at Worlds) than the previous season. Yes, she's not typical PCS lady, but overally I guess she should still gain more than a fresh senior unless Alysa shows something divine or the US skating fed will push her really hard. For another comparison, Aliona Kostornaia, a sweetheart of the judges when it comes to the components gained 33.57 and 71.07 at her first GP in 2019 and Alysa will hardly get the same.

Yes, but I would attribute that to RusFed's politics. And the fact she was going to World's as Russia's number 3. She's not going to be considered their number 3 this upcoming season.

 

[chasingneverland]

I get what you are saying and I kinda agree....but then I disagree as well. And that's because of Anna.

Anna was clearly the third girl from RusFed in season 2019-20 when the 3A started to conquer the world. Everyone talked about Alëna and Sasha and Anna was like the forgotten one (I think Johnny even said that at Skate America). And that was from the RusFed too! It was clear that RusFed wanted Alëna to win that national title, and they did all they could in giving her all the points they could for a clean-ish skate. But it wasn't enough.
The international judges quickly caught up on Anna though, At GPF free she was 4 points behind Alëna on PCS, but at Europeans the judges had already narrowed it down to 1 point. We will never know what had happened at Worlds that season as it was cancelled, but I think Anna might have caught Alëna by then.

And it's funny, last season everyone again was talking about Sasha and Alëna (before she got COVID) and then Kamila, and at nationals, again Anna was not considered the favourite. That was Sasha and Kamila.

I think Anna has proved that politics might be there, but they don't mean much in the end...perhaps we sometimes overthink these things.

But I would argue Russia DOES support their number 3, which Anna was (you can see that with Liza at World's) - Russia is still going to back Russia and their top skaters just by decending order by ranking - and that's also how international judges rank and perceive skaters - even subconsciously. (Of note, this hurts Japan's skaters because their own judges don't tend to overscore them, with a couple exceptions.) Anna's PCS rose steadily as she rose from the number 3 to the number 1 and reigning World champion. That DOES support the point. (It also does help that Anna is a skater that makes it easier to justify PCS - Alena, Kamila, Rika (and potentially Daria) are too. It makes it easier to politic for them. Sasha is too in that she has the wow factor of her quads. Quads also tend to result in good PCS.)

I would say Anna IS proof that international judges DO follow who the federation themselves supports. (Russia has steadily increasingly backed Anna domestically and she entered Euros as the 2x RusNat champion. This year she entered World's as the 3x RusNat champion and Russia's number 1.) Her domestic PCS ROSE as she went from Russia's 3 to 1 and her international PCS followed suit. Alysa might be going as USFed's number 1 or 2 (most likely 2). Liza T will be going as Russia's number 5-7.

 

[Azikin]

Yeah! Agreed!

I have a suspicious feeling that my not-so-high-expectations of Alysa might be just a simple cultural thing compared to you guys. Hey, I'm Swedish, we don't expect much as it is considered to be unnecessary pressure, so we tend to keep our expectations low. It doesn't mean that I think Alysa has no chance at all...on the contrary, I am very excited to see what she can bring to the mix.

Why not, she's a sympathic girl and Russian girls need some challenge. I just wouldn't like to see anyone being pushed just to create that challenge. If it's deserved, I'm open to root for anyone.. and I root for mostly everyone anyway..

 

[flanker]

Alysa Liu's PCS at the JGPF were equal to/and higher than Alina Zagitova's PCS in her senior debut... I guess that says a lot about the relevance of guessing component scores for events in the beginning of the year.

No, they weren't at all.

Alysa's PCS at JGPF: SP: 30.18, FS: 60.06
Alina's PCS at her first senior international appearance - Lombardia: SP: 31.64, FS: 67.52
For more comparison, Alina's PCS at the CoC as her first senior GP: SP: 31.43, FS: 68.35

And that was with Alina's mistakes on her SP that took her time to deliver it clean. Nevertheless, comparisons of those results can't be precise, because:
1. Alina's senior debut took place under the old -3/+3 system yet with slightly different rules and also attitude towards juniors/fresh seniors.
2. Since the season 2018/19 the judges started to give much higher PCS to juniors/fresh seniors than they gave before, remember that Aliona Kostornaia was the fist junior who received higher components than 8 (at 2018 JGPF).
3. Still, Alina's PCS at her senior debut were much higher esp. in the free program (7-8 points) than Alysa's. So, while Alysa certainly has some potential in PCS, your assumpiton is based on wrong statement.

 

[flanker]

Yes, but I would attribute that to RusFed's politics. And the fact she was going to World's as Russia's number 3. She's not going to be considered their number 3 this upcoming season.

If she skates clean/on the level we saw her at worlds and WTT, I can hardly see her receiving a significantly different PCS. Again, Liza's performances during the season 2019/20 were far from perfect, that's how her marks from that time have to be seen.

 

[flanker]

I get what you are saying and I kinda agree....but then I disagree as well. And that's because of Anna.

Anna was clearly the third girl from RusFed in season 2019-20 when the 3A started to conquer the world. Everyone talked about Alëna and Sasha and Anna was like the forgotten one (I think Johnny even said that at Skate America). And that was from the RusFed too! It was clear that RusFed wanted Alëna to win that national title, and they did all they could in giving her all the points they could for a clean-ish skate. But it wasn't enough.
The international judges quickly caught up on Anna though, At GPF free she was 4 points behind Alëna on PCS, but at Europeans the judges had already narrowed it down to 1 point. We will never know what had happened at Worlds that season as it was cancelled, but I think Anna might have caught Alëna by then.

And it's funny, last season everyone again was talking about Sasha and Alëna (before she got COVID) and then Kamila, and at nationals, again Anna was not considered the favourite. That was Sasha and Kamila.

I think Anna has proved that politics might be there, but they don't mean much in the end...perhaps we sometimes overthink these things.

That's very accurate. I just remember Anna at the Lombardia Trophy 2019, where she received ridiculously low score for her SP (5 points lower than for her junior debut). It was the only time I saw Anna taken aback. Fortunately it didn't break her. Anna is still somehow undervalued even after the season where she won everyting, but it seems it doesn't bother her at all (remember her response to a question about what she says to the fact that Sasha and Aliona are much more popular and much more attention is paid to them at the press conference after the last nationals).

 

[Arbitrary]

Alysa Lui is standing some above Liza Tuktamisheva by their achieved technical potential. No quad = No Olympics medal, almost certainly.
But I don't see her being above Scherbakova right now, especially knowing that one is the WC-21 winner.

 

[Novalis]

When are we going to get the JGP Courchevel 1 entries? Or JGP in general? It's less than a month to go now! I can't wait anymore

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

When are we going to get the JGP Courchevel 1 entries? Or JGP in general? It's less than a month to go now! I can't wait anymore

RusFed said Rumours are, shortly after test skates which will be from 2nd to 4th August.