2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

[kirauza343]

Dream podium:

Gold: Rika
Silver: Sasha
Bronze: Alysa

Predicted podium:

Gold: Kamila
Silver: Sasha
Bronze: Rika

Even with their talents a complete Russian sweep would be very difficult (also I just want Rika on the podium okay)

 

[Jontor]

Yeah, I know, I know, 2021 Worlds haven't happened yet, but we could wrap that into our considerations if/when it happens. I think the Beijing Olympics for Ladies is going to be the most exciting event in recent years for me, including the season leading up to it. I have tried to discuss layouts for Trusova and Kihira, and received some good input, but hopefully this thread will wrap all the contenders into one thread, and we can see who can rule them all. Remember, we still need to know which countries will receive how many spots, but we do know Russia, Japan, and South Korea have contenders.

I'll start with my sentimental favorite, and will let people have the thread for their own proposed layouts and what they hope to see, and who they think will win. And who can make the team.

From the US, I hope to see Karen Chen make the Olympic team. For me she is one of the best PCS skaters, and she has top notch tech elements if she hits them. I still want to see her train a 3A and do:

3A
3Lz
3Lo+2Lo x

Which to me would be a wonderful throwback to Asada's SP in 2014 if Chen is able to get her choreography and skating to that level. She can surely focus on the 3A if she cuts down the tech content to this, and focus on delivering everything else to the highest quality - GOE and PCS is where I think she can win out.

For the LP she can then try:

3A
2A+3T
3F
2A+3T
3Lz+1Eu+3S x
3Lz x
3Lo x

Get the big jumps out of the way - and I think this is the best way to optimize her layout assuming she gets a 3A. No UR calls on the 2A+3T. Will just need to focus on getting the 3Lz+1Eu+3S around. I think she's planning to keep the LP, so I hope someone gets her better music cuts, and she can probably do a better job on the choreography herself. Hope to see this full sequence back from the gala as the ChSq:

From the direct contenders for the OGM, I'd like someone to propose a layout for Kamila Valieva's LP. She's working on the 3A, so no doubt for the SP she'll just be replacing the 2A with a 3A and doing the rest of her layout in the same way. But for the LP I think she shouldn't bother too much with doing two 3As, and I want her replace the 3Lz+1Eu+3S she does with a more pleasing combo.

4T+2T
3A
4T
3Lo
3Lz+1Eu+3S
3F
3Lz+3T

That still has the +3S combo I don't think she's training a +3Lo. If she gets the 4S into her LP, I guess we can just drop the +3S because she got a salchow in there somehow...

LOVE your initiative to make this thread...but I refuse to make my predictions so soon. I fear I may jinx things. A LOT can happen in a year. But sure, I have my hopes and fears on what the podium might look like. And I don't think I can make an honest prediction until we've seen RusNats 2022!

 

[saturdaysun]

Young You has been landing 4lz and 4lo in practice for a couple of years now so who knows how big of a factor she will be. Her 3A seemed to stabilize pretty quickly when she started putting it in competition, maybe the quads will be reliable super fast too? I am definitely rooting for her to play spoiler! I'm a fall of all the top ladies but I also love surprises and underdogs.

I would also love to see Amber Glenn make the US team with her triple axel in tow!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Young You has been landing 4lz and 4lo in practice for a couple of years now so who knows how big of a factor she will be. Her 3A seemed to stabilize pretty quickly when she started putting it in competition, maybe the quads will be reliable super fast too? I am definitely rooting for her to play spoiler! I'm a fall of all the top ladies but I also love surprises and underdogs.

Even with the jumps, I think it will be hard for her to compete on PCS. A lot of people rave about Alysa and how strong she will be when she gets her jumps back, but watching her LP at Nationals she is on two feet A LOT during her program, even though she does some nice things like the 2A entry. She's another who is nowhere near the top Russians on the second mark, so for me I think it will be hard for the other skaters aside from Rika to challenge on both marks.

 

[Skuratov]

For all Kihira fans who hang a medal on her early.

- She has never beaten T-SH-K since her junior days.

- She always collapses at major events: JGPF2017, JWC2018, WC2019, WTT 2019, GPF2019-2020.
JGPF2017 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha: 4S, Alëna no trixel/quads.
JWC2018 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha surprised the world with 2 quads, Alëna no trixel/ quads.
WC2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Alina no trixel/quads, Zhenya no trixel / quads.
WTT 2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Tukta's arsenal included 3 trixels.
GPF2019-2020 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, 4S. Sashas's arsenal included 1 trixel, 5 quads. Anna's arsenal included 3 Quads. Alëna's arsenal includead 3 trixels. All of you are going to argument that Kihira was injured at that moment, What about the other competitions?

Skate Canada 2019 Rika outscored Sasha in the SP, what happened in the FS? Sasha fell in her 4S attempt and still outscored Rika. Suppose Rika adds a 4S, Sasha with four clean quads is still unreachable.

It will be interesting to know if the ISU will put her on Kamila's path for the Grand Prix 2021.
Will Kamila's name be added to Rika's list of Russian executioners?

I watch Rika out of Olympic Podium.

Alysa Liu couldn't beat an injured Kamila without quads I don't see how she can beat the Russian team, all of them with multiple quads / trixels.
Yeon Yoo (Young You): Instagram quads don't count she needs to do them in real competition. Until then I will believe in her.

What if Sasha adds the 4L (Rittberger) to her arsenal?

 

[kirauza343]

For all Kihira fans who hang a medal on her early.

- She has never beaten T-SH-K since her junior days.

- She always collapses at major events: JGPF2017, JWC2018, WC2019, WTT 2019, JGPF2019-2020.
JGPF2017 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha: 4S, Alëna no trixel/quads.
JWC2018 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha surprised the world with 2 quads, Alëna no trixel/ quads.
WC2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Alina no trixel/quads, Zhenya no trixel / quads.
WTT 2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Tukta's arsenal included 3 trixels.
JGPF2019-2020 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, 4S. Sashas's arsenal included 1 trixel, 5 quads. Anna's arsenal included 3 Quads. Alëna's arsenal includead 3 trixels. All of you are going to argument that Kihira was injured at that moment, What about the other competitions?

Skate Canada 2019 Rika outscored Sasha in the SP, what happened in the FS? Sasha fell in her 4S attempt and still outscored Rika. Suppose Rika adds a 4S, Sasha with four clean quads is still unreachable.

It will be interesting to know if the ISU will put her on Kamila's path for the Grand Prix 2021.
Will Kamila's name be added to Rika's list of Russian executioners?

I watch Rika out of Olympic Podium.

Alysa Liu couldn't beat an injured Kamila without quads I don't see how she can beat the Russian team, all of them with multiple quads / trixels.
Yeon Yoo (Young You): Instagram quads don't count she needs to do them in real competition. Until then I will believe in her.

What if Sasha adds the 4L (Rittberger) to her arsenal?

Rika’s also faaaaaaar more consistent now than she was as a junior or even as a first year senior, and last year she was competing without a quad sal and without a triple lutz which lowers her base value.

Skate Canada was Sasha’s best performance of the entire year, and a performance she hasn’t replicated with that number of quads. GPF wasn’t Rika’s best competition but it was one bad competition in a season she did very well in otherwise even with a watered down layout. Worlds had the potential to be very interesting had they not been canceled since she had added her lutz back in and was landing quad sals in practice.

It’s a mistake to count Rika out.

 

[Ophelia]

None of the previous predictions from the last two Olympics cycles for ladies panned out.

 

[brakes]

For all Kihira fans who hang a medal on her early.

- She has never beaten T-SH-K since her junior days.

- She always collapses at major events: JGPF2017, JWC2018, WC2019, WTT 2019, GPF2019-2020.

GPF 2020? Plus she won GPF 2018.

 

[Blades of Passion]

What if Sasha adds the 4L (Rittberger) to her arsenal?

I'd be surprised if she can execute it in a way that's worth the same GOE as her other quads. Doesn't seem worthwhile to me, and working on 3A is more important. I'm thinking this LP layout for her:

4S
4Lz+3T
4Lz
3A (obviously just replace with 2A if needed)
4T
3Lz+3Lo
3Lz+1Lo+3S

Although I'm uneasy about how unstable her 3Lz+3Lo has been in these super hard jump layouts. However, she has to do 3F+3T instead if that combo needs to be replaced, which is a particularly annoying downgrade if panels are going to keep picking on her Flip edge with the ! call. Being able to remove the Flip altogether can be good for her, including from the SP. Going for 3A, 3Lo, and 3Lz+3T in the SP is plenty of content, the .4 base value from the Flip isn't worth worrying about if the edge is something that's going to be a source of distraction in her training and performance. I don't like her Flip at this point anyway; if she does need to focus on that edge then it seems like the jump is going to keep being small and unimpressive.

 

[Sjs5572]

Alysa has already gone through her growth spurt, which is an advantage for her. She already had her 3a back in practice, prior to Nationals. She is going to be focused on getting back her 4lz over the next few months. Finally, her PCS has dramatically improved under Massimo and Jeremy already, with 13 more months to refine her style even more by the Olympics. Alysa could land anywhere on that Olympic podium!

 

[Blades of Passion]

Alysa never had a 4Lz, she has trouble even properly rotating a 3Lz in her current state. I can see the 3A coming back since she had so much experience with it (although it was never high quality), but only if she learns to go in with more speed. Her current technique will not work.

 

[Skatesocs]

I want Liu to rebuild her 2A and 3A and her 3Lz (no need to get the 4Lz back, IMO), but IDK if an off-season will be enough. Even just for the 2A/3A. You can learn a jump that quickly if you already have a strong base, but rebuilding one is pretty hard.

 

[Skatesocs]

Even with their talents a complete Russian sweep would be very difficult

I actually do think we are headed towards a Russian sweep. The team they send here will be their most talented team ever, and they will have huuuuuuge political backing. Talent + politics wins things in skating. Kihira can push through if she manages to get another quad, but honestly the more I discuss her skating, the less I see the possibility. Valieva and Trusova already have their 3As, and Shcherbakova will out her on PCS when clean - which she will be. She's only ever fallen on quads in the past two seasons IIRC, and not too often at that.

None of the previous predictions from the last two Olympics cycles for ladies panned out.

Sochi probably (obviously) didn't. I find it hard to believe if at least a few weren't tossing in Zagitova's name at this point in 2017.

Young You has been landing 4lz and 4lo in practice for a couple of years now so who knows how big of a factor she will be. Her 3A seemed to stabilize pretty quickly when she started putting it in competition, maybe the quads will be reliable super fast too? I am definitely rooting for her to play spoiler! I'm a fall of all the top ladies but I also love surprises and underdogs.

Young will finish solidly in the top 6, probably top 5, but not higher than 5th IMO. She might get a quad, but not sure if she'll get it consistent by the Olympics - which will put her behind the Russians and Kihira.

I would also love to see Amber Glenn make the US team with her triple axel in tow!

I think the US team will have two spots for the Olympics. It will be an arms race, I guess, but Tennell is more than likely going, so not sure at all what the second spot will be.

 

[Skater Boy]

I think Rika Khira has the best chance. She hasa itall and the 3A is important as itis like a good six pointsormore with positive goeover a double axel in the short. She has great presence and pcs and unlike the US and Russia is clearly Japan's it girl/ woman. Alysa Liu; and whoever makes or survives out of the Russian bloodbath also have a medal chance. Kamila, Dara, Aliona, Anna, Sasha, Liza . Unless Evgenia gets a quad she won't even have a shot for the Russian team (should have stayed in Canada and represented them joke / lol). Darkhourse for a medal is Bradie Tennelll. Everyone falls to the pressure and she gets on the poidum

 

[FayD]

For all Kihira fans who hang a medal on her early.

- She has never beaten T-SH-K since her junior days.

- She always collapses at major events: JGPF2017, JWC2018, WC2019, WTT 2019, GPF2019-2020.
JGPF2017 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha: 4S, Alëna no trixel/quads.
JWC2018 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, Sasha surprised the world with 2 quads, Alëna no trixel/ quads.
WC2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Alina no trixel/quads, Zhenya no trixel / quads.
WTT 2019 Kihiras's arsenal included 3 trixels, Tukta's arsenal included 3 trixels.
GPF2019-2020 Kihiras's arsenal included 2 trixels, 4S. Sashas's arsenal included 1 trixel, 5 quads. Anna's arsenal included 3 Quads. Alëna's arsenal includead 3 trixels. All of you are going to argument that Kihira was injured at that moment, What about the other competitions?

Skate Canada 2019 Rika outscored Sasha in the SP, what happened in the FS? Sasha fell in her 4S attempt and still outscored Rika. Suppose Rika adds a 4S, Sasha with four clean quads is still unreachable.

It will be interesting to know if the ISU will put her on Kamila's path for the Grand Prix 2021.
Will Kamila's name be added to Rika's list of Russian executioners?

I watch Rika out of Olympic Podium.

Alysa Liu couldn't beat an injured Kamila without quads I don't see how she can beat the Russian team, all of them with multiple quads / trixels.
Yeon Yoo (Young You): Instagram quads don't count she needs to do them in real competition. Until then I will believe in her.

What if Sasha adds the 4L (Rittberger) to her arsenal?

Unnecessarily condescending post.

Rika's consistency has improved a lot and you conveniently left out major events she won - GPF18, 4CC19 and 4CC20. Obviously she didn't face the Russians at 4CC but she hardly collapsed there. During the 2019-2020 season she was consistently scoring over 230 even without a lutz. Sasha's quad mistakes later in the season caused her score to drop under 230, so frankly Worlds podium could have gone either way.

Personally, I'm not hanging a medal on her in advance but if she can hit her maximum content with a 3A advantage in the short and a 4S, two 3As and two 3Lz in the free, then her scoring potential is pretty solid and very competitive. She is one of the most well-rounded ladies currently competing with no clear weakness so counting her out is absurd.

 

[Tonight's the Night]

This is pretty fun to look at. The thread starts in October 2016, a year and four months before the 2018 Winter Olympics.

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/ladies-olympic-predictions.60754/

There is no mention in the thread of a certain young Russian lady whose last name begins with Z until late December, after that certain young Russian lady finishes second at the Russian senior nationals at the young age of 14....

 

[Skatesocs]

There is no mention of a certain young Russian lady whose last name begins with Z until late December, after that certain young Russian lady finishes second at the Russian senior nationals at the young age of 14....

There we are

 

[Tonight's the Night]

So what you're saying, Skatesocs, is that Dasha Usacheva will win the gold medal at the Olympics? I agree.

 

[Skatesocs]

So what you're saying, Skatesocs, is that Dasha Usacheva will win the gold medal at the Olympics? I agree.

I wouldn't mind it either, if she gets the 3A! But unlikely to get a quad by next season, IMO =/

 

[zounger]

The Analysis is who ever Russian girl stays under 40 kilos has the potential to win Olympics. The prediction is one of them will be injured by the time. Because they are 3-4, one of them will win. Rika has problems to deliver when it counts. US ladies will be pushed only if they have 3A or quad by the GP series, quite unfortunate since they are all more than 40 kilos.