2022 Olympic Ladies Predictions + Analysis!

[kolyadafan2002]

I wouldn't mind it either, if she gets the 3A! But unlikely to get a quad by next season, IMO =/

I think even if she does, they won't send her with her limited international experience vs Sasha and Anna. Kamila has already proven herself now, so I think it's her spot to lose (and Kostornaia is the only person I see getting it purely based on her international experience and her previous competition results).

 

[flanker]

This is pretty fun to look at. The thread starts in October 2016, a year and four months before the 2018 Winter Olympics.

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/ladies-olympic-predictions.60754/

There is no mention in the thread of a certain young Russian lady whose last name begins with Z until late December, after that certain young Russian lady finishes second at the Russian senior nationals at the young age of 14....

Good for reminding how things can change. Though I still think situation is little different now. In 2016 majority of people didn't know much about russian juniors, now even junior ladies competitions in Russia are among the most on the lookout for. While in 2016 only a few people knew Alina, now most figure skating fans know Kamila, Daria, Maiia as much as the ladies who are already seniors (which is of course from a big part a merit of Alina and some others of her "generation" that people started watching the newcommers closely). Of course it's still too soon to tell who will be in the team because there are too many who can make it but with the highest probability it will be someone we already know.

BTW there was one seer even in 2016

 

[zounger]

Yes I think you cannot compare Zagitova with Valieva. Valieva is entirely in a different level, artistically and technically, Zagitova in her best was a lot worst than Valieva. Plus she is already directed for Olympics. That status had only Medvedeva for previous Olympics. Her PCS got the necessary boost, she doesn't participate in junior competitions for a season now indicating that she is supported as senior Olympic hope. As for less unknown juniors seniors for example Khromykh they have to overpass 3-4 skaters at least. Khromykh doesn't look as a good surprise candidate anyway (see my post above), Usacheva is a candidate to replace the first injured one, I would agree.

 

[Tonight's the Night]

In 2016 majority of people didn't know much about russian juniors, now even junior ladies competitions in Russia are among the most on the lookout for. While in 2016 only a few people knew Alina, now most figure skating fans know Kamila, Daria, Maiia as much as the ladies who are already seniors (which is of course from a big part a merit of Alina and some others of her "generation" that people started wathing the newcommers closely).

Nice point, and one that I couldn't have seen because I wasn't a figure skating fan back then.

BTW there was one seer even in 2016

Exactly, that user refreshed the thread right after the Russian nationals!

 

[flanker]

Nice point, and one that I couldn't have seen because I wasn't a figure skating fan back then.



Exactly, that user refreshed the thread right after the Russian nationals!

Well as for me, I was already watching figure skating in 2016, but still a little superficially, only big competitions. senior worlds and europeans. First time I noticed Alina when by chance I noticed her 2017 junior worlds skate and became an instant fan

 

[[email protected]]

In the chain of contenders the weakest link is Rika. It's because she is a contender for such a long period of time. Too many factors have to play for her to be in the best possible shape exactly prior to the Olympics. With the Russian ladies we have a pool of at least Anna, Sasha, and Kamila. Then we have "veterans" Liza, Zhenya, and (who knows?) Alina. Finally, there are potential newcomers with big jumps who already showed their potential: Darya, Maia, who else? So, we have more than a year and a pool of up to 10 skaters vs. just Rika.

Once again, if Rika manages to develop her tech, bring back 3Lz, stay healthy, overcome all puberty related changes, etc. then yes, she is a podium contender. But there are a lot of "ifs".

 

[zounger]

Then we have "veterans" Liza, Zhenya, and (who knows?) Alina.

Liza? no -one will pick her, she even looses in votes. Zhenya? maybe if she stays under 40. Alina forget it, you know better Russian than me.

 

[[email protected]]

Liza? no -one will pick her, she even looses in votes. Zhenya? maybe if she stays under 40. Alina forget it, you know better Russian than me.

Liza with 3 3As and 4T is a contender if "big guns" have issues. Whatever type of issues. The main thing is that it is risky to bet on one particular skater nowadays especially when it is more than a year ahead.

 

[anonymoose_au]

Zhenya? maybe if she stays under 40.

What's the deal with the 40 kilos obsession? How would you even know what these ladies weigh

 

[Lzbee]

In the chain of contenders the weakest link is Rika. It's because she is a contender for such a long period of time. Too many factors have to play for her to be in the best possible shape exactly prior to the Olympics. With the Russian ladies we have a pool of at least Anna, Sasha, and Kamila. Then we have "veterans" Liza, Zhenya, and (who knows?) Alina. Finally, there are potential newcomers with big jumps who already showed their potential: Darya, Maia, who else? So, we have more than a year and a pool of up to 10 skaters vs. just Rika.

Once again, if Rika manages to develop her tech, bring back 3Lz, stay healthy, overcome all puberty related changes, etc. then yes, she is a podium contender. But there are a lot of "ifs".

I still don't understand why you consider Rika the weakest link? Out of all the ladies you mentioned, a clean Rika would beat all except Anna, Sasha and Kamila. So if any one of those three are out for whatever reason or make a mistake, then Rika is ready to grab a medal.

I think the chances of Zhenya coming back and being competitive are now very very slim considering her health issues. It's a real shame because she was on the up.

(Also, you missed out Kostornaia in your list )

 

[zounger]

What's the deal with the 40 kilos obsession? How would you even know what these ladies weigh

It's not mine. But is a reality. I particularly don't find it interesting.

 

[zounger]

Liza with 3 3As and 4T is a contender if "big guns" have issues. Whatever type of issues. The main thing is that it is risky to bet on one particular skater nowadays especially when it is more than a year ahead.

Liza with 3 3A and a 4T should be a winner but you need to overpass the vote barrier. Not easy.

 

[[email protected]]

I still don't understand why you consider Rika the weakest link? Out of all the ladies you mentioned, a clean Rika would beat all except Anna, Sasha and Kamila. So if any one of those three are out for whatever reason or make a mistake, then Rika is ready to grab a medal.

I think the chances of Zhenya coming back and being competitive are now very very slim considering her health issues. It's a real shame because she was on the up.

(Also, you missed out Kostornaia in your list )

I consider Rika the weakest link not vs. any particular skater but vs. a group of Russian skaters. As I said, she is one against the pool. We don't know who exactly out of 5 - 10 top Russian skaters (of course, as of now Alyona is one of them) will be in the best competitive shape in one year. The key is that without new jumps Kaori is hardly a competition to the top-3 (whoever they are)

Liza with 3 3A and a 4T should be a winner but you need to overpass the vote barrier. Not easy.

Liza must start to deliver. She has not done it yet. That's why we don't know how the vote barrier will be if she does indeed.

 

[macy]

i think a Russian sweep is more probable now than any olympics ever before. this team will 100000% be the strongest in history.

the most likely team will be some combination of Sasha, Anna, Kamila, Aliona. i don't think Liza will get the benefit of the doubt unless she is consistently ahead of 2 of those 4 next season, and she was even beaten by Maiia and Dasha at nationals this year. i think Kamila and Anna have all but punched their tickets at this point, and the 3rd spot will likely be between Aliona and Sasha- this battle largely depends on Sasha's consistency and Aliona's 3A. i don't think she will make the team without it.

Rika is by far the biggest threat to a Russian podium sweep. if one of them falters and she is clean she can absolutely sneak in. if Alysa makes it, she won't be a podium threat but probably top 10, maybe higher if she keeps the upward trajectory and brings back at least her 3As. it's likely the US women will only have 2 spots, and i think Bradie has the best outlook for making the team. Alysa will have to be *crispy* clean and show even more development to secure the 2nd spot over Karen, Mariah and Amber. i think USFSA will want to push her next season.

I want to see Wakaba bring back her Bond program next season and make the team so. bad. that program DESERVES to see olympic ice. Kaori is also top 6 material.

i could see the top 10 looking something like this:

1. Kamila/Anna
2. Anna/Kamila
3. 3rd Russian lady
4. Rika Kihira
5. Kaori Sakamoto
6. Satoko Miyahara
7. Alysa Liu
8. Bradie Tennell
9. Young You
10. Loena Hendrickx

 

[Skatesocs]

1. Kamila/Anna
2. Anna/Kamila
3. 3rd Russian lady
4. Rika Kihira
5. Kaori Sakamoto
6. Satoko Miyahara
7. Alysa Liu
8. Bradie Tennell
9. Young You
10. Wakaba Higuchi

Great answer overall, but you have 4 spots for Japan! (4. Kihira, 5. Sakamoto, 6. Miyahara, 10. Higuchi). I think the second Korean lady will wrap up the top 10 - and that's likely to be Haien Lee. An outside shot for Chen Hongyi of China, maybe.

 

[macy]

Great answer overall, but you have 4 spots for Japan! (4. Kihira, 5. Sakamoto, 6. Miyahara, 10. Higuchi). I think the second Korean lady will wrap up the top 10 - and that's likely to be Haien Lee. An outside shot for Chen Hongyi of China, maybe.

oops, thanks for pointing that out! fixed, but unfortunately i had to drop Wakaba out.

 

[Skatesocs]

Also, I might as well put this bit in, I wish they could send an additional skater only for the Team Event. That person would be the designated Team Event skater. This occurred to me when I was looking up rules while writing in this thread. If a country has won a spot on the Team Event, then even if they haven't won say two ID individual event spots (like Japan might not, as was being discussed), they can still submit a team with an additional spot for ID (as long as that team has the TES minimums). They need to make sure they finalize the substitutions and the team being entered into the event beforehand, though. So then Japan can use two different men, two different ID teams, their only Pair, and one of their women.

I also would like to see this being extended to all possible substitutions and disciplines in the Team Event. So for instance, Russia will obviously get three spots for their Ladies in the individual event, and they will have a team they will send to the individual event. But they can send two different skaters (if they want) to the Team Event (again, provided they finalise this beforehand). So we can see Shcherbakova/Trusova/Valieva in the Individual Event, but Kostornaia/Usacheva in the Team Event. Similary, Higuchi/Kawabe (for example) can be sent from Japan for the Team Event, even if the Individual Event is Miyahara/Sakamoto/Kihira. Chen/Tennell can go to the Individual Event from the US, but Liu/Glenn to the Team Event.

 

[dancelion21]

That's an interesting idea, where a country can send additional skaters if they want to the team event. Although I'm not sure how often it would be used. For instance, the US ladies and pairs have very very slim chances of winning an individual medal, but would almost be guaranteed a team medal if they were chosen for the team event. Thus, if they could only pick one, they would much rather skate the team event than the individual event. However, since they would presumably be the No. 1/2 US Pair/lady, they would probably just choose to skate both to have the best of both worlds.

I imagine it would somewhat work for Russian ladies, where they can give two ladies the spots as a bit of a consolation prize, and since the trio for the individual event would all be medal favorites, they aren't missing out on too much by not getting a team medal, even then, I can't imagine that the top three Russian ladies would be happy at missing out on a chance to get two Olympic medals. In the Japan situation you explained, it could work if they really wanted to have two ice dance teams, but I feel like it's far more likely for them to want to split their singles disciplines so that their top skaters can conserve energy for the individual event, since their top skaters in the singles disciplines have a chance at an individual medal. Also, the team medal is a better reward for their singles disciplines, which are far stronger than their paired ones.

 

[zounger]

I don't think any top skater will refuse a potential medal to someone 3rd-4th in the row.

 

[dancelion21]

I'm still thinking about why the United States chose to split Ladies in 2018 instead of splitting Dance when US Ice Dance is so much stronger. I will be quite frustrated if they don't split Ice Dance is 2022 between H/D and C/B.