2023-24 Russian Nationals Women's Short Program | Golden Skate

2023-24 Russian Nationals Women's Short Program

AlexBreeze

Record Breaker
Joined
May 27, 2021
Country
Russia
2024 Russian Nationals

Traktor Ice Arena, Chelyabinsk

Women, Short Program
Friday, 22 December, 2023
19.00 - 21.30

Current local time in Chelyabinsk, Russia (UTC+5)

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/russia/chelyabinsk

This season there's no official Youtube stream. Replays are uploaded on this channel after a competition is over. There are two ways to watch the official broadcast:
1) Channel One website. The website is blocked in some countries by local providers. You can use Dutch VPN if you are from Europe, or Canadian VPN if you are from the USA to avoid the block.
2) VLC media player. Open this link: https://1tv-live-gcore.servicecdn.ru/dash-live3/streams/sport-1/sport-1.mpd via the player. This option is preferable because the broadcast quality will be better.



StN.NameRegion
Warm-Up Group 1
1Maiia Khromykh
Moscow Figure Skating Academy Khrustalny School
Moscow
2Ekaterina Anisimova
Regonal Olympic Complex Sports School
Tula Oblast
3Veronika Yametova
Sports School No. 8 Lokomotiv
Sverdlovsk Oblast
4Adeliia Petrosian
Moscow Figure Skating Academy Khrustalny School
Moscow
5Maria Talalaikina
Figure Skating Academy
Saint Petersburg
6Ksenia Sinitsyna
Moscow Figure Skating Academy Legenda School
Moscow
Warm-Up Group 2
7Sofia Vazhnova
Stanislav Zhuk Olympic School
Moscow
8Elizaveta Kulikova
Stanislav Zhuk Olympic School
Moscow
9Lyudmila Fursova
Olympic School Star Ice
Saint Petersburg
10Daria Sadkova
Ice Sports School
Mari El Republic
11Sofia Zakharova
Olympic School Star Ice
Saint Petersburg
12Anna Frolova
Figure Skating Academy
Saint Petersburg
Warm-Up Group 3
13Maria Agaeva
Figure Skating Army
Moscow
14Sofia Muravieva
Figure Skating Academy Angels of Plushenko
Moscow
15Alina Gorbacheva
Figure Skating Sports School
Tver Oblast
16Arina Kshetskaya
Figure Skating Academy
Saint Petersburg
17Kseniia Gushchina
Figure Skating Academy
Saint Petersburg
18Kamila Valieva
Moscow Figure Skating Academy Khrustalny School
Moscow

No.Names
1Maria Agaeva
[Мария Агаева]
SP: "The Groove You Liked" by Savanj Rooms
FS: Coco Before Chanel (soundtrack)

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/97184
2Ekaterina Anisimova
[Екатерина Анисимова]
SP: Carmen by Georges Bizet; choreo by Natalia Bestemianova
FS: Polovtsian Dances by Alexander Borodin; choreo by Natalia Bestemianova
3Anna Frolova
[Анна Фролова]
SP: "Tam Net Menya" by Sevara Nazarkhan; choreo by Valentin Molotov
FS: "Tango" by Mgzavrebi

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/77324
4Lyudmila Fursova
[Людмила Фурсова]
SP: "Standing On The Horizon" by Woodkid
FS: "Gula Gula" by Mari Boine, "Oklo" by Alpine Universe
5Alina Gorbacheva
[Алина Горбачёва]
SP: "Pharaoh Ramses II" by Derek Fiechter; "Egyptian in the Night" by Nuttin' But Strings
FS: "La terre vue du ciel" by Armand Amar; "The Final Game" from "The Queen's Gambit" soundtrack by Carlos Rafael Rivera, performed by Ji-chan Park

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/86877
6Kseniia Gushchina
[Ксения Гущина]
SP: Twin Peaks soundtrack: "The Bookhouse Boys" and "Laura Palmer's Theme" by Angelo Badalamenti
FS: "Standing On The Horizon" by Woodkid
7Maiia Khromykh
[Майя Хромых]
SP: "Ashes" from Deadpool 2 soundtrack by Celine Dion; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz
FS: "The Devil You Know" and "My Love" by Sharon Kovacs; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/77451
8Arina Kshetskaya
[Арина Кшецкая]
SP: "Heart Cry" by Drehz
FS: "Vremya" by Evgeni Sokolovskiy
9Elizaveta Kulikova
[Елизавета Куликова]
SP: "Oj, da ne vecher" performed by Pelageya
FS: "If You Go Away" performed by Imany
10Sofia Muravieva
[Софья Муравьева]
SP: "Horizon of Memories" by Eternal Eclipse and Ranya
FS: "Pilgrims On a Long Journey" by Coeur de Pirate; "Wicked Game" by Chris Isaak, performed by Ursine Vulpine and Annaca
Gefion by Christian Reindl and Lucie Paradis

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/86806
11Adeliia Petrosian
[Аделия Петросян]
SP: Michael Jackson medley: "Earth Song," "Billie Jean," "They Don't Care About Us;" choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz
FS: "February" by Leonid Levashkevich; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/85894
12Daria Sadkova
[Дарья Садкова]
SP: "Bring Me To Life" by Evanescence; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz
FS: "Hello" and "Someone Like You" by Adele; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/88527
13Kseniia Sinitsyna
[Ксения Синицына]
SP: "Lullaby, Op. 16, No. 1" by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky; choreo. by Vera Arutyunyan
FS: "Perhaps Perhaps Perhaps" by Osvaldo Ferres, performed by Gaby Moreno; "Espiritu" by Ann Reynolds and Clave Gringa; choreo by Maria Kasumova

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/66609
14Maria Talalaikina
[Мария Талалайкина]
SP: Scent of a Woman soundtrack
FS: "Time To Say Goodbye" by Andrea Bocelli and Sarah Brightman
15Kamila Valieva
[Камила Валиева]
SP: "I See Red" by Everybody Loves An Outlaw; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz
FS: Black Panther soundtrack: "Wakanda Forever" by Ludwig Göransson ft. Baaba Maal and "Lift Me Up" by Rihanna; choreo by Daniil Gleikhengauz

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/72542
16Sofia Vazhnova
[Софья Важнова]
SP: No Time to Die (soundtrack)
FS: "The Feeling Begins" by Peter Gabriel
17Veronika Yametova
[Вероника Яметова]
SP: "Royal Blood" by Caleb Swift
FS: "Valhalla Calling" by Miracle Of Sound

FanFest: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?97183
18Sofia Zakharova
[София Захарова]
SP: One Thousand and One Nights by Fikret Amirov
SP: Moulin Rouge! soundtrack
 
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Skating91

Medalist
Joined
Sep 16, 2023
I'm so pumped for this. It's come around all of a sudden. Everything seems quiet, no-one posting videos of their ultra-c attempts (I assume no-one is stable).

I really don't know what to expect. Yes, Petrosian should comfortably win but if Valieva has restored the quad it suddenly becomes close. Then does she go for the second quad?

At the same time, with the unmentionable, does she want to win? I think ultimately no results post February 2022 will be revised, but it must be an uncomfortable situation. It feels like she's cruising along at 90%, doing enough to maintain form, her jumps, some decent results. Of course on the day of the event with a medal up for grabs she will suddenly give 100% but the preparation is not close to the maximum. Just an observation I couldn't give 100% commitment since February 2022 in her position. It's some kind of nightmare.

Muraviova should have enough against an unstable Sadkova and Gorbacheva, plus Yametova has a somewhat low ceiling. She will be in the top 5 if any of the others I mentioned have disaster skates. Still, Muraviova seems to always crack in these moments. This probably is her best and almost last chance for a national championship medal.

There should be plenty of surprises in the top 6. Petrosian should win by 20 points though unless she has a total meltdown. The odds are against her having a really strong skate like at the GP final in March.

I think Kromykh will sit this out she was 7th or 8th in the Moscow championship. It was quite sad to watch.
 

katymay

Medalist
Joined
Mar 7, 2006
I'm so pumped for this. It's come around all of a sudden. Everything seems quiet, no-one posting videos of their ultra-c attempts (I assume no-one is stable).

I really don't know what to expect. Yes, Petrosian should comfortably win but if Valieva has restored the quad it suddenly becomes close. Then does she go for the second quad?

At the same time, with the unmentionable, does she want to win? I think ultimately no results post February 2022 will be revised, but it must be an uncomfortable situation. It feels like she's cruising along at 90%, doing enough to maintain form, her jumps, some decent results. Of course on the day of the event with a medal up for grabs she will suddenly give 100% but the preparation is not close to the maximum. Just an observation I couldn't give 100% commitment since February 2022 in her position. It's some kind of nightmare.

Muraviova should have enough against an unstable Sadkova and Gorbacheva, plus Yametova has a somewhat low ceiling. She will be in the top 5 if any of the others I mentioned have disaster skates. Still, Muraviova seems to always crack in these moments. This probably is her best and almost last chance for a national championship medal.

There should be plenty of surprises in the top 6. Petrosian should win by 20 points though unless she has a total meltdown. The odds are against her having a really strong skate like at the GP final in March.

I think Kromykh will sit this out she was 7th or 8th in the Moscow championship. It was quite sad to watch.
Maria Agaeva could be a spoiler on the podium. She is landing a 4L3Loop in practice. She has been outstanding all year.
 
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Skating91

Medalist
Joined
Sep 16, 2023
But does it really though?
It does only because Petrosian lacks consistency. She hasn't looked particularly stable all season and if we go back to last year it was only the GP final where she fulfilled her promise (still fell on the triple axel).

Valieva if she is clean for the short program will score around 81. Petrosian if clean will be around 84. But the triple axel is looking more and more difficult for her there might be a step out or even a fall Petrosian is on 77-78. Suddenly a lead 3-4 point lead for Valieva.

Valieva in stage 6 scored 145 in the free with two falls, Petrosian in stage 1 150 with two falls (triple axel not used at all in free skate in both stages). Petrosian is still very much a junior skater in a way, Valieva skating skills have worsened but still a beautiful skater. Even if both are clean PCS will be similar.

Valieva's stage 6 free had a base value of 71 the same as in the Russian championships last December. That day she went for two quads landed both scored 170. She won't do that this year the conditioning isn't there as it was last December and she isn't into the program, but 160-65 for sure is possible. This year just the one quad in the program but making use of that sequence rule to jump a lower risk 3F-2A-2A instead of the 4T-2A which to me is smarter. Petrosian in the GP final last year was 169.

I can't recall Petrosian not having at least one fall in her free skate. She always bounces up and there's no interruption (she must bounce up from a fall better than anyone in the world), but always almost always one fall. It goes without saying if she has a clean free skate she beats the next best by 20 points, but there must be a 80-90% probability of at least one fall in the free skate.

Plus, it will be 9 weeks since Petrosian competed, compared to Valieva of 4 weeks. Competing 4 weeks ago seems more ideal to me.

It's unlikely Valieva wins, maybe she doesn't really want to win until everything is finalised, but the math checks out. It says she has more than a puncher's chance.
 
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Mathematician

Kamila - All Time Ladies' World Record Holder
Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Country
Russia
It does only because Petrosian lacks consistency. She hasn't looked particularly stable all season and if we go back to last year it was only the GP final where she fulfilled her promise (still fell on the triple axel).

Valieva if she is clean for the short program will score around 81. Petrosian if clean will be around 84. But the triple axel is looking more and more difficult for her there might be a step out or even a fall Petrosian is on 77-78. Suddenly a lead 3-4 point lead for Valieva.

Valieva in stage 6 scored 145 in the free with two falls, Petrosian in stage 1 150 with two falls (triple axel not used at all in free skate in both stages). Petrosian is still very much a junior skater in a way, Valieva skating skills have worsened but still a beautiful skater. Even if both are clean PCS will be similar.

Valieva's stage 6 free had a base value of 71 the same as in the Russian championships last December. That day she went for two quads landed both scored 170. She won't do that this year the conditioning isn't there as it was last December and she isn't into the program, but 160-65 for sure is possible. This year just the one quad in the program but making use of that sequence rule to jump a lower risk 3F-2A-2A instead of the 4T-2A which to me is smarter. Petrosian in the GP final last year was 169.

I can't recall Petrosian not having at least one fall in her free skate. She always bounces up and there's no interruption (she must bounce up from a fall better than anyone in the world), but always almost always one fall. It goes without saying if she has a clean free skate she beats the next best by 20 points, but there must be a 80-90% probability of at least one fall in the free skate.

Plus, it will be 9 weeks since Petrosian competed, compared to Valieva of 4 weeks. Competing 4 weeks ago seems more ideal to me.

It's unlikely Valieva wins, maybe she doesn't really want to win until everything is finalised, but the math checks out. It says she has more than a puncher's chance.
I dont think its a relevant comparison at all Petrosian at first stage and Valieva at last. Valieva has a chance if she skates perfect and Petrosian skates terrible. But the same is true for some other girls too who have a 3A in addition to their quad which gives advantage over Valieva in SP. I dont think that makes it "close" it just means its possible but thats obviously always true. Valieva hasnt really had great FS performances either. I can see Gorbacheva or Agaeva passing her and even Muravieva if she hits a 3A twice (once in combo). Meanwhile Petrosian improved like 50% just from first to second stage and now she has had months. Recent competition is unlikely to have any effect on someone with her experience. Her showing last season also just tells me that she goes for peak rather than inconsistency. Which is extremely scary for the other girls when she was already the best in the first week. I dont see it as close in any case.
 

Mathematician

Kamila - All Time Ladies' World Record Holder
Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Country
Russia
That's quite a feat! :biggrin:

And I can't see her withdraw if she's physically OK. You don't run from a fight like this, she needs to gain confidence again. Go Maya!
Yea, I didnt think Maya would withdraw. Theres no point. She could push 200 overall which would be a success in most people's view.

But I still dont know where the claim of Agaeva's combo came from. 4Lz-4Lo isnt possible. And I havent seen any footage of either of those jumps individually either from her socials.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
I am not as engaged as I was when Trusova-Scherbakova-Kostornaya went at it, but Murav'yeva-Frolova-Sinitzina-Kulikova guarantee a good show, with some potential surprises in the wings. If they removed Valieva and Khromykh from the line up, I would watch the whole thing.
 

Skating91

Medalist
Joined
Sep 16, 2023
I dont think its a relevant comparison at all Petrosian at first stage and Valieva at last.
Of course it's relevant. It's data from the past two months.

Valieva has a chance if she skates perfect and Petrosian skates terrible.
Valieva has a chance if she skates perfect and Petrosian has one fall. If Valieva skates perfect and Petrosian has two falls then Valieva will easily win. If Valieva skates her Moscow program without error she will score around 166-67.

But the same is true for some other girls too who have a 3A in addition to their quad which gives advantage over Valieva in SP. I dont think that makes it "close" it just means its possible but thats obviously always true. Valieva hasnt really had great FS performances either. I can see Gorbacheva or Agaeva passing her and even Muravieva if she hits a 3A twice (once in combo). Meanwhile Petrosian improved like 50% just from first to second stage and now she has had months. Recent competition is unlikely to have any effect on someone with her experience. Her showing last season also just tells me that she goes for peak rather than inconsistency. Which is extremely scary for the other girls when she was already the best in the first week. I dont see it as close in any case.

Muraviova has to not crack under the pressure. Still, I think Muraviova with a 3A successful won't get more than 84 in the short program.

Gorbacheva has not really recovered her quads after the tiniest of growth spurts. Agaeva without a quad (I can't see her landing it) is no better than Frolova.
 

Skating91

Medalist
Joined
Sep 16, 2023
I am not as engaged as I was when Trusova-Scherbakova-Kostornaya went at it, but Murav'yeva-Frolova-Sinitzina-Kulikova guarantee a good show, with some potential surprises in the wings. If they removed Valieva and Khromykh from the line up, I would watch the whole thing.
Valieva is pure box office. She's the straw that stirs the figure skating drink.

Khromykh's form is just sad at the moment. Seems like a nice girl I can't understand why someone could hate her enough to not watch.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Valieva is pure box office. She's the straw that stirs the figure skating drink.

Khromykh's form is just sad at the moment. Seems like a nice girl I can't understand why someone could hate her enough to not watch.
Never liked Khromykh, never thought she 'can', and Valieva reminds me every time why I can't see Russians competing internationally.
 

Skating91

Medalist
Joined
Sep 16, 2023
Never liked Khromykh, never thought she 'can', and Valieva reminds me every time why I can't see Russians competing internationally.
I'd never be so unforgiving of a 15 year old even if somehow she was 100% to blame (whatever that might be I'm not talking about the d word). I'm just talking about anything, but for some reason so unforgiving of a girl that was 15.

What's Khromykh ever done wrong she's been in the shadow of everyone else, had some great form 2021, had a horrific injury, still fights because of her love for the sport.
 

Mathematician

Kamila - All Time Ladies' World Record Holder
Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Country
Russia
Of course it's relevant. It's data from the past two months.
2 months is nothing in most sports but figure skating is a sport about peaking not maintaining. Her 1 week progress from first to second stage proves that alone. In sports about peaking like strength sports or bodybuilding the athlete is like 60% 3 months out. Figure skating is quite similar if not more extreme - it can take only 2 weeks for a girl to regain quads she didnt jump for months.

Valieva has a chance if she skates perfect and Petrosian has one fall. If Valieva skates perfect and Petrosian has two falls then Valieva will easily win.
Petrosian had 2 falls and hand on ice maintaining 234 in first stage.

6th stage Valieva got gifted 38+ PCS with perfect TES in SP and if we give her the same FS but without her 2 falls, she would sit around that same score overall (maybe a bit higher, she got 226).

Assuming Petrosian gets the same PCS and SP tech as first stage (near impossible given she is peaked) she still needs 2 falls plus other significant mistakes in FS to make it equal.

She borderline can not lose.

Muraviova has to not crack under the pressure. Still, I think Muraviova with a 3A successful won't get more than 84 in the short program.
Well 84 in SP is likely first place. With clean FS (2 3A) she is pushing well over 240 based off previous scores which could be winning assuming Adeliia disasterclass.

Valieva's lack of 3A is extremely damaging to her scores.

By the way its nice you spell Mura's name the way it should be.
 
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Mathematician

Kamila - All Time Ladies' World Record Holder
Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Country
Russia
Murav'yeva-Frolova-Sinitzina-Kulikova
I'm not sure thats accurate. Muravieva being anywhere near those 3 would be failure from her. The other 3 dont really distinguish themselves beyond most other girls like Gorbacheva or Sadkova.

My rating of favourites would be as follows. Question mark for those of currently unknown form/wild cards. Also assuming Agaeva has a 4Lz-3Lo:

1 Petrosian
2-3 Valieva/Muravieva
4-6 Gorbacheva/Sadkova/Agaeva(?)
7-9 Yametova/Frolova/Sinitsina
10-12 Guschina/Zakharova(?)/Kulikova(?)
13 Vazhnova(?)
14 Anisimova
15 Khromykh
16-17 Fursova/Kshetskaya
18 Talalaikina (?)

Vazhnova is probably the biggest wild card here (or maybe Agaeva). She could be pushing a very impressive placement off base value but so far she has been dealing with a severe under-rotation issue. It will be a massive question whether or not she fixed that - maybe the biggest question after Muravieva's 3A status and perhaps the Agaeva 4Lz-3Lo. I do think Vazhnova has good artistry but unsure about the rest of her components.
 
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