2023-24 Russian Nationals Women's Short Program

[lariko]

I'm not sure thats accurate. Muravieva being anywhere near those 3 would be failure from her. The other 3 dont really distinguish themselves beyond most other girls like Gorbacheva or Sadkova.

That's what I like. Gorbacheva is nice too. Tbh, I don't care who they hand a medal to, it's already out of whack with Valieva allowed to particiate.

 

[lariko]

I'd never be so unforgiving of a 15 year old even if somehow she was 100% to blame (whatever that might be I'm not talking about the d word). I'm just talking about anything, but for some reason so unforgiving of a girl that was 15.

What's Khromykh ever done wrong she's been in the shadow of everyone else, had some great form 2021, had a horrific injury, still fights because of her love for the sport.

Yeah, I can. She isn't just guilty, she is a symbol of everything that is wrong. The faster she is removed, the faster reconciliation can begin. The longer she remains, the harder it would be to do. I am pro reconciliation, so every time I see Valieva I want to vomit.

Khromykh on her own is just a quiet gal, but she was hyped too hard by the fans of the certain school, and it grew annoying. That school loves nothing more than a poor, martyred girl narrative. Those endless years of attempts to land a quad...now competing out of shape for no discernible reason...except that she's a daughter of some coach or something.

 

[Mathematician]

now competing out of shape for no discernible reason...

Well she did fairly qualify for nats after all. She was overscored indeed but would've qualified anyways. If Maya should quit then what about all of those girls who couldnt beat her?

 

[Jontor]

I'm not sure thats accurate. Muravieva being anywhere near those 3 would be failure from her. The other 3 dont really distinguish themselves beyond most other girls like Gorbacheva or Sadkova.

My rating of favourites would be as follows. Question mark for those of currently unknown form/wild cards. Also assuming Agaeva has a 4Lz-3Lo:

1 Petrosian
2-3 Valieva/Muravieva
4-6 Gorbacheva/Sadkova/Agaeva(?)
7-9 Yametova/Frolova/Sinitsina
10-12 Guschina/Zakharova(?)/Kulikova(?)
13 Vazhnova(?)
14 Anisimova
15 Khromykh
16-17 Fursova/Kshetskaya
18 Talalaikina

Vazhnova is probably the biggest wild card here (or maybe Agaeva). She could be pushing a very impressive placement off base value but so far she has been dealing with a severe under-rotation issue. It will be a massive question whether or not she fixed that - maybe the biggest question after Muravieva's 3A status and perhaps the Agaeva 4Lz-3Lo. I do think Vazhnova has good artistry but unsure about the rest of her components.

I totally agree with that overall ranking, except for Talalaikina, that I think can push 14-15th place if she gets the jumps done.

I am rooting for Muravieva here. It is her time to shine.

So my detailed prediction would be:

1 Muravieva
2 Petrosian
3 Valieva
4 Sadkova
5 Gorbacheva
6 Agaeva
7 Sinitsyna
8 Frolova
9 Yametova
10 Kulikova
11 Gushchina
12 Vazhnova
13 Zakharova
14 Khromykh
15 Talalaikina
16 Anisimova
17 Kshetskaya
18 Fursova

I do agree that Agaeva and Vazhnova are the biggest wild cards. Those two might do much better...or worse.

 

[lariko]

Well she did fairly qualify for nats after all. She was overscored indeed but would've qualified anyways. If Maya should quit then what about all of those girls who couldnt beat her?

Other girls get what they get. I would give them a chance. Anyone from that corrupt school needs to prove themselves before I watch them further. If not, I don’t. Valieva is one exception. I refuse to watch that woman in any way, shape or form. I want her out. Forever.

 

[Jontor]

2019 and 2023 were the toughest Nationals for women with the Top 13 over 190 points.

Can this field beat that?

 

[Mathematician]

I totally agree with that overall ranking, except for Talalaikina, that I think can push 14-15th place if she gets the jumps done.

I am rooting for Muravieva here. It is her time to shine.

So my detailed prediction would be:

1 Muravieva
2 Petrosian
3 Valieva
4 Sadkova
5 Gorbacheva
6 Agaeva
7 Sinitsyna
8 Frolova
9 Yametova
10 Kulikova
11 Gushchina
12 Vazhnova
13 Zakharova
14 Khromykh
15 Talalaikina
16 Anisimova
17 Kshetskaya
18 Fursova

I do agree that Agaeva and Vazhnova are the biggest wild cards. Those two might do much better...or worse.

You're right about Talalaikina, she did jump lots of pops and still qualified. But I expected her to fix that by her 2nd stage which didnt happen. So I dont really know what to think of her form going into this. I should put the (?) next to her.

Otherwise I'd put Gushchina over Kulikova and Anisimova over Khromykh in that list. And obviously Petrosian in first.

 

[Mathematician]

2019 and 2023 were the toughest Nationals for women with the Top 13 over 190 points.

Can this field beat that?

Honestly, I almost expect each of these girls to push 190. Aside from Talalaikina if she hasnt fixed her pops.

 

[Skating91]

Yeah, I can. She isn't just guilty, she is a symbol of everything that is wrong. The faster she is removed, the faster reconciliation can begin. The longer she remains, the harder it would be to do. I am pro reconciliation, so every time I see Valieva I want to vomit.

Khromykh on her own is just a quiet gal, but she was hyped too hard by the fans of the certain school, and it grew annoying. That school loves nothing more than a poor, martyred girl narrative. Those endless years of attempts to land a quad...now competing out of shape for no discernible reason...except that she's a daughter of some coach or something.

Seethe and cope. I hope you can get the love you need.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

Whoops, meant 4L3Loop. lol.

You sure you're not confusing her with Alena Prineva (Baby Sasha )? Last I heard Masha Agaeva was semi-successfully (landing, but missing rotation) training 3A, 4T and 4S, definitely not 4Lz and much less 4Lz+3Lo.

 

[Jontor]

You're right about Talalaikina, she did jump lots of pops and still qualified. But I expected her to fix that by her 2nd stage which didnt happen. So I dont really know what to think of her form going into this. I should put the (?) next to her.

Otherwise I'd put Gushchina over Kulikova and Anisimova over Khromykh in that list. And obviously Petrosian in first.

The thing though with Talalaikina is that finally the judges recognised her PCS-wise. In her second stage she was clean in the short and scored her best ever score (67 something). It was the PCS that got Talalaikina through, and if she has fixed her pops and can get all her jumps done, she might be even pushing top 10. (I just hope that Ignatov doesn't rub off on her too much...)

I prefer Gushchina over Kulikova, but K looked superstrong and consistent in her stages. If they both go clean, I think Kulikova takes it with slightly higher tech content.

I can't really make up my mind about Khromykh. She was super overscored in her stages, and I fear that would happen again. If she doesn't totally mess up, she might also push top 10. I'm afraid I can't see the judges go for Anisimova, although I hope they would.

Aah...I feel the excitement already. Russian women has always been special to me, and I have predicted the winner since 2018... will Muravieva finally make it? I guess we'll see later this week! I have to admit though, this year it feels like anything could happen with Valieva/Petrosian/Muravieva at the top, but I'll go with my gut feeling like I always do, and say that this is Muravieva's year.

 

[Mathematician]

The thing though with Talalaikina is that finally the judges recognised her PCS-wise. In her second stage she was clean in the short and scored her best ever score (67 something). It was the PCS that got Talalaikina through, and if she has fixed her pops and can get all her jumps done, she might be even pushing top 10. (I just hope that Ignatov doesn't rub off on her too much...)

I prefer Gushchina over Kulikova, but K looked superstrong and consistent in her stages. If they both go clean, I think Kulikova takes it with slightly higher tech content.

Yes, you're right and I guess Talalaikina is sort of a wild card, too. I can see her pushing top 10 with a 3-3, good PCS and no pops. Now that we know from @Jumping_Bean that Agaeva wasnt landing the 4Lz-3Lo I would probably put Talalaikina over her in regards to wild card status; with Vazhnova as the foremost still.

I think Agaeva still stays a stable 6th as in your overall ranking given her 3A and other quads, though.

I prefer Gushchina over Kulikova, but K looked superstrong and consistent in her stages. If they both go clean, I think Kulikova takes it with slightly higher tech content.

Possibly, but Gushchina at stages was skating off only a couple weeks of practice. With about another month she should have harder tech and much cleaner skating skills. Unfortunately neither of them post training footage so its hard to know. But I'm keeping hope in Gushchina.

I can't really make up my mind about Khromykh. She was super overscored in her stages, and I fear that would happen again. If she doesn't totally mess up, she might also push top 10. I'm afraid I can't see the judges go for Anisimova, although I hope they would.

Maya will 100% be overscored again, alongside Valieva. Interestingly Sadkova didnt seem to get much favouritism despite also being with Eteri. If Maya hits her 3-3s, worked on her endurance for FS and only falls 1-2 times then top 10 is easy given the inflated PCS. For Anisomova, I have no idea but she impressed me greatly last stage and scored 186 despite Zayaking. I would definitely have her over Maya in theory.

Aah...I feel the excitement already. Russian women has always been special to me, and I have predicted the winner since 2018... will Muravieva finally make it? I guess we'll see later this week! I have to admit though, this year it feels like anything could happen with Valieva/Petrosian/Muravieva at the top, but I'll go with my gut feeling like I always do, and say that this is Muravieva's year.

I like Muravieva a lot, she is likely my favourite. I'm hoping for her to beat Valieva but not Petrosian. Reason being that Petrosian not winning would necessitate that she failed which would be really sad to watch especially considering I like her too. Moreover I consider Petrosian's FS the best currently active program in figure skating and it deserves at least 1 major gold this season.

Ideally Muravieva and Petrosian both skate clean and take 1st/2nd. I dont want either of them crying in the post-skate interview. Valieva doesnt matter much to me - I'm neutral on her and wouldnt mind seeing her 3rd.

 

[yume]

That's what I like. Gorbacheva is nice too. Tbh, I don't care who they hand a medal to, it's already out of whack with Valieva allowed to particiate.

Yeah, I can. She isn't just guilty, she is a symbol of everything that is wrong. The faster she is removed, the faster reconciliation can begin. The longer she remains, the harder it would be to do. I am pro reconciliation, so every time I see Valieva I want to vomit.

Girl, let's just enjoy this without vomiting.

 

[yume]

I would put the artists (Frolova, Sinitsyna) and Speedy Gonzales (Yametova) over Coco Chanel (Agaeva). Her PCS simply doesn't compete. She was pristine in her 2nd stage and finished 3rd behind Frolova and Yametova with low PCS. I doubt she will land any clean ultra-c.

 

[AlexBreeze]

and finished 3rd behind Frolova and Yametova with low PCS

And Yametova and Frolova weren't even perfect, they had flaws. Agaeva can only end up high because of her stability. But if others also perform well, she won't be very high.

 

[Mathematician]

I would put the artists (Frolova, Sinitsyna)

Its just Sinitsina who is a pure artist. Frolova is a jack of all trades: stable, artistic, consistent, athletic... but a master of none.

Sinitsina though historically is probably a master of art even if her FS might not show it this season.

I doubt she will land any clean ultra-c.

Why? Stability is her biggest weapon

Agaeva can only end up high because of her stability. But if others also perform well, she won't be very high.

Others like who? Given Agaeva's stability her ultra-c should keep her above the standard girls despite PCS, but that PCS will put her last behind the other experienced ultra-c girls.

By the way, Agaeva is a sophisticated artist. I recall we all agreed on that point after seeing her skate. But her coaches trolled her with the coco music I still cant comprehend why they set that for her.

 

[Isk]

I do think Vazhnova has good artistry but unsure about the rest of her components.

Hm.. Artistry is not a component. SS, composition and presentation are, I believe.

 

[Skatelife]

I'll root for Maia, too much hate from coach specialists, Russian nationals are not for everyone and even with the overscoring she earned it.
Maia can wishing her a clean skate as all the other girls

 

[Mathematician]

Hm.. Artistry is not a component. SS, composition and presentation are, I believe.

Composition and presentation arent artistry?

 

[yume]

Why? Stability is her biggest weapon

I would be more confident if she had already tried one during cup stages.

By the way, Agaeva is a sophisticated artist. I recall we all agreed on that point after seeing her skate. But her coaches trolled her with the coco music I still cant comprehend why they set that for her.

Yeah, they should just remove that coco part that makes her look like a novice, not even a junior. The rest of the program is just so much better. Maybe judges were harsh with her on components because of it.