2024-25 Japanese Men's Figure Skating

[KiraraChin]

With JSF, politics always trumps everything else.

 

[Sai Bon]

I love watching Kazuki. He's matured and improved his presentation massively in the past few years, and JSF could have given him a bit more love. However, what lets him down is his hit rate with quads. He and Sota are both unreliable in this department, and whoever proves more stable this coming season will end up on the team, or possibly Shun.

 

[KiraraChin]

I love watching Kazuki. He's matured and improved his presentation massively in the past few years, and JSF could have given him a bit more love. However, what lets him down is his hit rate with quads.

I mean, theoretically... in a fair judging system... his PCS would be closer to Yuma's rather than Shun/Kao, and he would also be getting better GOE on the jumps he does land (case in point: his 3A in the short programme last season, backloaded with transitions in and out, got zero love from the judges). If that was the case, even with mistakes on quads, some of his placements last season would have been different... But alas

He said he is aware that he needs to focus on the jumps and he's been working on his basics so the accuracy with his jumps has been improving in training, so we shall see.

 

[KiraraChin]

ISU World standings have been updated for 2024-25, there's no Shoma
Here are the positions of the top Japanese men:
3rd - Kao Miura
5th - Shun Sato
7th - Sota Yamamoto
10th - Yuma Kagiyama
16th - Kazuki Tomono
24th - Nozomu Yoshioka
28th - Rio Nakata (junior)
31st - Koshiro Shimada
40th - Shunsuke Nakamura
59th - Tatsuya Tsuboi

 

[rabidline]

ISU World standings have been updated for 2024-25, there's no Shoma
Here are the positions of the top Japanese men:
3rd - Kao Miura
5th - Shun Sato
7th - Sota Yamamoto
10th - Yuma Kagiyama
16th - Kazuki Tomono
24th - Nozomu Yoshioka
28th - Rio Nakata (junior)
31st - Koshiro Shimada
40th - Shunsuke Nakamura
59th - Tatsuya Tsuboi

Just in time for the GP assignments, Shoma not being in the standings make it easier to map out who gets what IMO.

 

[KiraraChin]

Just in time for the GP assignments, Shoma not being in the standings make it easier to map out who gets what IMO.

Yes, the timing of his announcement was very considerate.

Cross-referencing the standings with the ISU seasons best list, the following skaters should have two GP assignments:

Yuma Kagiyama (seeded)
Kao Miura (potentially seeded if Jason skips the GP again)
Shun Sato
Sota Yamamoto
Kazuki Tomono
Nozomu Yoshioka
Koshiro Shimada

Tatsuya and Shunsuke (if he goes senior) are in a more precarious position, but could potentially get 1 assignment + NHK host spot. Sena and Takeru will probably get no assignments unless they get the NHK host spot

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Yes, the timing of his assignments was very considerate.

Cross-referencing the standings with the ISU seasons best list, the following skaters should have two GP assignments:

Yuma Kagiyama (seeded)
Kao Miura (potentially seeded if Jason skips the GP again)
Shun Sato
Sota Yamamoto
Kazuki Tomono
Nozomu Yoshioka
Koshiro Shimada

Tatsuya and Shunsuke (if he goes senior) are in a more precarious position, but could potentially get 1 assignment + NHK host spot. Sena and Takeru will probably get no assignments unless they get the NHK host spot

Since Tatsuya did so well at Japanese Nationals, I'd guess that he will get the NHK host spot unless one of the other guys really performs well in the early season.

 

[rabidline]

Do they not decide NHK host spot by a selection event? I don't think finishing well at 2023 Nationals will be enough, but I'm sure the guys mentioned will be invited for the selection.

 

[KiraraChin]

Since Tatsuya did so well at Japanese Nationals, I'd guess that he will get the NHK host spot unless one of the other guys really performs well in the early season.

Do they not decide NHK host spot by a selection event? I don't think finishing well at 2023 Nationals will be enough, but I'm sure the guys mentioned will be invited for the selection.

I also have a feeling they will try to reward Tatsuya somehow - he did well at Nationals and also at Challenge Cup.
I think they might either give him some advantage during the NHK selection event, or maybe he will have 2 spots right off the bat, and then Shunsuke, Sena and Takeru will fight for the NHK host spot

 

[surimi]

I also have a feeling they will try to reward Tatsuya somehow - he did well at Nationals and also at Challenge Cup.
I think they might either give him some advantage during the NHK selection event, or maybe he will have 2 spots right off the bat, and then Shunsuke, Sena and Takeru will fight for the NHK host spot

I have the same feeling. IMO Tatsuya is a dark horse this season and in the upcoming one. With consistency and engaging programs, he can aim pretty high. Just my guess, but IMO he's more promising than Shunsuke or Takeru. I was surprised to see him so low in the WS list as he's a much better skater than his ranking is showing right now.

 

[rabidline]

I also have a feeling they will try to reward Tatsuya somehow - he did well at Nationals and also at Challenge Cup.
I think they might either give him some advantage during the NHK selection event, or maybe he will have 2 spots right off the bat, and then Shunsuke, Sena and Takeru will fight for the NHK host spot

All depends whether Tatsuya is healthy and is preparing well too for the season IMO. I think the JSF camp in July can be an indication for that. JSF may want to reward Tatsuya but if he's a loose cannon and shows up at the NHK selection event out of shape / injured, it wouldn't necessarily be a great look on him. But, if there's a place for another Japanese man with 2 assignments (especially with the vacant spots after Shoma retired) he'll be the priority since he finished 7th at Nationals, and the five skaters above him are pretty much guaranteed to have 2 spots.

Tatsuya's low at the WS list because of really bad luck - his last junior season had no JGP so he had no points for that even though he won bronze at Junior Worlds. In comparison, Nozomu Yoshioka, who won bronze in the next Junior Worlds after Tatsuya's- had almost 500 points from JGP which helped him a lot in the standings.

 

[KiraraChin]

I have the same feeling. IMO Tatsuya is a dark horse this season and in the upcoming one. With consistency and engaging programs, he can aim pretty high.

Agreed, and also he's in the right age bracket for JSF - the way he was scored at Challenge Cup in relation to Kazuki showed that he is part of the Olympic strategy

All depends whether Tatsuya is healthy and is preparing well too for the season IMO. I think the JSF camp in July can be an indication for that. JSF may want to reward Tatsuya but if he's a loose cannon and shows up at the NHK selection event out of shape / injured, it wouldn't necessarily be a great look on him. But, if there's a place for another Japanese man with 2 assignments (especially with the vacant spots after Shoma retired) he'll be the priority since he finished 7th at Nationals, and the five skaters above him are pretty much guaranteed to have 2 spots.

Tatsuya's low at the WS list because of really bad luck - his last junior season had no JGP so he had no points for that even though he won bronze at Junior Worlds. In comparison, Nozomu Yoshioka, who won bronze in the next Junior Worlds after Tatsuya's- had almost 500 points from JGP which helped him a lot in the standings.

Also agree with this, Tacchan has been so unlucky with the timing of the pandemic, and also lots of injuries throughout his career Staying consistently healthy is his biggest challenge.

If Tacchan gets two spots straight away, or if he's not in good shape for the NHK selection event, I have a feeling they will push Shunsuke instead - he has the youth + Hamada factor in his favour. Sena and Takeru are in the same boat: still young but no longer a 'fresh face' and really struggled last season, so they will need a strong showing in order to be considered.

 

[rabidline]

If Tacchan gets two spots straight away, or if he's not in good shape for the NHK selection event, I have a feeling they will push Shunsuke instead - he has the youth + Hamada factor in his favour. Sena and Takeru are in the same boat: still young but no longer a 'fresh face' and really struggled last season, so they will need a strong showing in order to be considered.

It will definitely be interesting to see how the second layer of the Japanese men shakes up next season, and see whether a consistent sixth man "emerges" to take his spot alongside Yuma, Kao, Shun, Sota and Kazuki. Or whether they're all going to be solidly in that second layer.

 

[TeamGubanova]

If Tacchan gets two spots straight away, or if he's not in good shape for the NHK selection event, I have a feeling they will push Shunsuke instead - he has the youth + Hamada factor in his favour. Sena and Takeru are in the same boat: still young but no longer a 'fresh face' and really struggled last season, so they will need a strong showing in order to be considered.

Shunsuke is not the strongest guy, he's been really inconsistent all last season while trying to develop quads. i think tacchan is a much stronger candidate for the 2026 or 2030 team than Shunchan is.

 

[KiraraChin]

Shunsuke is not the strongest guy, he's been really inconsistent all last season while trying to develop quads. i think tacchan is a much stronger candidate for the 2026 or 2030 team than Shunchan is.

I agree, I was talking about the scenario in which Tacchan wouldn't be a contender for the NHK Trophy host spot, and Shunshuke had to fight Sena and Takeru. In this case, I think the fed would want to give Shunsuke a chance since he's fresh out of juniors and has a powerful coach (Hamada).

 

[KiraraChin]

GP assignments for the Japanese Men:

Skate America: Kao Miura, Koshiro Shimada, Nozomu Yoshioka
Skate Canada: Shun Sato, Sota Yamamoto
GP France: Koshiro Shimada, Kazuki Tomono
NHK Trophy: Yuma Kagiyama, Kao Miura, TBD
Finlandia Trophy: Yuma Kagiyama, Kazuki Tomono, Sota Yamamoto
Cup of China: Shun Sato

I'm VERY surprised Nozomu only has one assignment, and no assignments for Tatsuya or Shunsuke!? Is it me, of JSF aren't using all of their GP spots...
Also, despite being seeded, Yuma ended up with back-to-back assignments. He will obviously win both but that's a tough schedule...

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Also, despite being seeded, Yuma ended up with back-to-back assignments. He will obviously win both but that's a tough schedule...

I think he wanted to avoid skating last in China, because it's a tough turn-around from the last event to Europe for the Final and then back to Japan for Nats - that's a lot of travel and competition for one month. The best-case scenario would have been SCI and NHK, but Ilia has first priority and I think he wanted to do back-to-backs and thus took SCI. And Adam pretty much had to get IDF, so there were very limited options. If I had to guess, he'll stay in Europe after Finlandia and train in France or Italy before the Final.

I'm VERY surprised Nozomu only has one assignment, and no assignments for Tatsuya or Shunsuke!? Is me me, of JSF aren't using all of their GP spots...

Unfortunately, Tatsuya wasn't even guaranteed one spot because of his poor international results last season, and I think there were other skaters who were requested by feds over Nozomu, such as Donovan Carillo, who given the choice between the two will sell more tickets. They're probably going to be battling it out for the host spot, which is a shame especially for Tatsuya. But with Shoma's retirement, there weren't as many Japanese skaters guaranteed spots, and while I'm sure both are high on the replacement list, they sadly weren't awarded any extra assignments.

 

[KiraraChin]

Unfortunately, Tatsuya wasn't even guaranteed one spot because of his poor international results last season, and I think there were other skaters who were requested by feds over Nozomu, such as Donovan Carillo, who given the choice between the two will sell more tickets. They're probably going to be battling it out for the host spot, which is a shame especially for Tatsuya. But with Shoma's retirement, there weren't as many Japanese skaters guaranteed spots, and while I'm sure both are high on the replacement list, they sadly weren't awarded any extra assignments.

Yeah... I was hoping Nozomu would get two spots, and Tatsuya would be the front runner for the NHK host spot... The NHK selection event will be a bloodbath.

 

[rabidline]

GP assignments for the Japanese Men:

Skate America: Kao Miura, Koshiro Shimada, Nozomu Yoshioka
Skate Canada: Shun Sato, Sota Yamamoto
GP France: Koshiro Shimada, Kazuki Tomono
NHK Trophy: Yuma Kagiyama, Kao Miura, TBD
Finlandia Trophy: Yuma Kagiyama, Kazuki Tomono, Sota Yamamoto
Cup of China: Shun Sato

I'm VERY surprised Nozomu only has one assignment, and no assignments for Tatsuya or Shunsuke!? Is it me, of JSF aren't using all of their GP spots...
Also, despite being seeded, Yuma ended up with back-to-back assignments. He will obviously win both but that's a tough schedule...

My thoughts from the Japanese Men perspective:

Yuma: Back-to-back GPs are hard, and I wonder if this isn't part of Ilia's selection strategy when he chose Skate America and Skate Canada. Sure, Ilia will compete back-to-back too, but he'll secure his spot at GPF very early and will have ample time to rest or even rethink his strategy / programs, while Yuma's back-to-back GPs are the 4th and 5th of the series, and with pretty stark time difference. I think they all know that Adam can't not do GP France, leaving Yuma with NHK Trophy and either Finlandia or Cup of China. Cup of China is too close to GPF and Yuma knew how exhausting it was to compete in the last GP last season. It's pretty cool to see a strategy in motion by the World Champion this close to the Olympics and it adds a bit more spice to the GP assignments.

I think it's more beneficial for Yuma if NHK was the later GP and not Finlandia Trophy. But Finlandia is historically not a bad place for Japanese skaters. There should be no one in either GPs to surpass Yuma even if he's shaky, which is the most important thing.

Kao - Shun - Kazuki - Sota:
- Looking at this configuration, Kao has the clearest path (in my opinion) after Yuma to the GPF with him being positioned to take both silvers at his GP events. Kao has shown the ability to perform well in early events, and Skate America has recent reputation of being generous with their calls and scoring so if Kao can use the opportunity, he can get a silver medal with a huge score (giving him advantage over the other GPF qualifiers), and NHK is unlikely to decline a Japanese 1-2 finish. However, Kao has a confirmed late ice show this season in the last days of August (Friends on Ice) for the first time in his career, so we'll see how it may impact his early assignment.

- Shun gets saddled with 2 tricky GPs: Skate Canada can get stingy with the scores in recent times, and Cup of China is the last event in the series. Shun has a history of pulling the GPF qualification off this kind of assignments, though. No one except Ilia should be able to out-quad Shun at Skate Canada, and same with COC and Adam. And I think Shun's position at the end of the GP series can prove strategic, as it has been in the past. On paper a similar assignment as Kao, just... less convenient in terms of scoring generosity and scheduling.

- Sota is, as always, a wild card. At his best he can win silvers (or at least bronzes) on his assignments, but if he blinks, it's all over. I don't think he'll win a surprise GP like last year since the trifecta of Ilia - Yuma - Adam seems pretty solid, but honestly, it's men. Anything can happen in men lol. His assignments are the same with one important other guy wanting to qualify for GPF with similar layout to his: Junhwan, who I hear will be working with Ghislain this season. Finlandia also will be filled with European dudes who might just be pulled ahead if they have a chance to qualify for GPF after their first event: A. Selevko, Lukas Britschgi, Kevin Aymoz. So that can complicate things for his second event.

- Kazuki!!! Yay for not getting the earlier GP because he has OPOI (RIP Koshiro). I think it's interesting that he will start his GP after Kao, Shun and Sota, but before Yuma, so it's not out of the possibility that the results of the first 2 GPs can impact his results. To be honest my first thought after seeing where he's positioned... he can act as a buffer if this GP series go topsy turvy for the Japanese men, but he does well. Anyway, please don't die after thriving in the 93814893579 ice shows this summer. Also: I hope he gets to visit the saunas in Helsinki.

Koshiro Shimada, Nozomu Yoshioka
- Not gonna lie I was like, Koshiro with 2 spots????? Lucky him. I mean he does have a higher WS (from Nebelhorn) than Nozomu. And Deniss is also competing at Skate America. It makes sense, but it's also interesting. GP invitations are given by the hosting federation so I guess he is a familiar face and quality (read: is known to be a nice skater, but not threatening at all)...?

- It will be interesting to see who "wins" the NHK spot from their selection event, but I guess at the moment there is a clear line between the first layer and the second layer of the Japanese men. We'll see if JSF has enough money to send the ones without a GP to Challengers, but I think this will be the status quo until the 2026 Olympics.

 

[KiraraChin]

My thoughts from the Japanese Men perspective:

Thanks for the analysis, I agree with everything and IMO these assignments confirm to me what I said before in terms of who JSF wants to prioritise and in what order

TBH it hurts to see Kazuki treated as a 'buffer', but what else is new... At least this time JSF had the decency to send him to places where he is most likely to have fun