Can Sasha pull a "Michelle Kwan" and get on the Olympic team?

[MKFSfan]

Do you think a healthy Sasha would be shaking in her boots at the thought of landing 4 or 5 triples in an LP? That used to be a bad performance from Sasha

No, I very much doubt Sasha is worried about not landing 4-5 triples. But I would not say that only landng 4 or 5 triples was considered a "bad" performance from Sasha. As a matter of fact, I'd say that was pretty average for Sasha. What kept her in good stead was while she would average a fall, the other 1-2 mistakes were generally 2-foots, hand down, turn outs, not pops or near falls, and she almost always completes the rotations 1st. The closest International event I remember her being "almost clean" was Worlds 2004, where she had a bad/saved landing on her 1st lutz (left off combo) and a badly underrotated 3 salchow. No falls. At Nationals, her "cleanest" LP has to be 2002 where she had a saved landing on her 3 lutz and a hand down on the last salchow, or 2006 where she turned out of both jumps in her 3t^3salchow sequence. Those two years were the only Nationals she did not fall in the LP. So, a GOOD performance from Sasha tended to be 5 triples.

Personally, I don't see Sasha making a comeback if she cannot at least try a flip, loop or lutz, or at least 2 of those 3 jumps. If she comes to Nationals, she will go for at least a 6 triple program, if not 7 triples.


I think Miki is MUCH better than she was in 2006. She has learned to pay attention to other aspects of her skating than just the jumps. She still has some great jumps though! Her FW, spirals and spins have improved and she is much more into the music. Her jumps and basic skating skills are better than Sasha's, but Sasha's non-jump elements and positions from the boot up are much better than Miki's.

 

[i love to skate]

Remember '06 - and Sasha messing up - still crushed Joannie - who had a pretty good LP at Torino.

There is a difference - a "wow" factor and few skaters in history have had Sasha's exquisite positions on the ice. Joannie has improved but I seriously doubt if she can compete with a Sahsa anywhere near her '06 level.
All of the double jumps we have seen from Joannie this GP season will not put her ahead of Sasha. It wouldn't even be close.

But the problem in this comparison is that Joannie is twice the skater she is now than she was in 2006. In 2006 she was the 11th ranked skater in the world. Last year she was second. We really can't compare what Sasha will do or won't do because no one has any idea of what jumps she is doing or where her spins are. She has also said that she is not as flexible as she used to be.

Sasha can simply skate out onto the ice waiting to be announced - and judges will clearly see she is better than Miki. For gosh sakes, we are talking about some of the most beautiful positions in skating history. :yes: Miki is one of the least musical skaters I have ever seen and although I like her she is a jumper and nothing more.

That bold statement, is sounding a bit like Phil Hersh, IMO. Is that you Phil? In what way is she better? So she has nice positions. Miki has huge and fantastic jumps. I'd rather watch that than a pretty layback anyday.

 

[janetfan]

That bold statement, is sounding a bit like Phil Hersh, IMO. Is that you Phil? In what way is she better? So she has nice positions. Miki has huge and fantastic jumps. I'd rather watch that than a pretty layback anyday.

Phil? Maybe I miss Jenny

Of course it is not fair to compare what we saw in '06 to what we may see in 2010.

And I agree Joannie has improved and is one of the most complete and polished skaters that will be heading to Vancouver. But it is fair to look at her GP season - and it was really not very impressive.

It is still better than Sasha - since she hasn't competed at all. But I don't think Sasha is losing sleep over what she saw from Joannie or Miki this season because it wasn't close to as good as she "used to be." Who knows what Sasha can do if she shows at Natls?

I would say judges at the international level think Sasha has a little more than "pretty positions." Even many of Sasha's critics would admit her positions are exquisite. Joannie has "pretty positions" but Sasha has always been a level higher than most other skaters. Sometimes Mao hits some exquisite positions but not many other skaters really compare to Sasha in that area. Caroline hits lovely positions but without any real interpretive ability or any abilty to connect with the audience. Her skating has never impressed judges the way Sasha's did.

As gkelly pointed out there was also an agressive factor to Sasha's skating. Jump or fall, she pretty much went for it and did not hold back. I think the judges never failed to notice how well Sasha did as a performer and CoP seems to be rewarding strong performers this season.

 

[MKFSfan]

Joannie is another who is LIGHT years better than she was in 2006. Just compare 2006 Olympics, with the one extra spin and no edge calls in effect (so marks were higher than they would be today) to her 2009 Worlds results, landed 6 triples both times:

2006: TES-55.29 PCS-56.13 Total: 111.42
2009: TES-60.59 PCS-62.80 Total: 123.39

Big jump. All her non-jump elements have gotten better. Her jumps are her strength when she is on-no edge calls, rarely will she UR unless she botches the jump. She has really worked so hard and it shows. She is prone to caving into pressure and I REALLY hope she can handle this season better than she has so far.

Sasha's LP marks in 2006 (116.63) were probably 5 points higher than they would've been today (taken into account an "e" call and the extra spin), and her Olympics performance was still 7 points less than Joannie's 2009 Worlds LP.


I am NOT slamming Sasha or saying she can't hold a candle to today's elite skaters. I'm showing how Joannie has closed the gap and has made herself a top contender if she can get past the mental aspect of competition.

I posted before I read your post Janetfan, glad you do recognize Joannie has improved. Hopefully Sasha does come back and we can put these sort of speculations to rest, but until she does, I'm sure these kinds of threads will go on and on!

 

[skatingpunk]

The way I see it, Sasaha Cohen can get to the Olympics in one of two ways: 1. Win at Nationals or 2. Change her name to Michelle Kwan

 

[silverlake22]

And I agree Joannie has improved and is one of the most complete and polished skaters that will be heading to Vancouver. But it is fair to look at her GP season - and it was really not very impressive.

It is still better than Sasha - since she hasn't competed at all. But I don't think Sasha is losing sleep over what she saw from Joannie or Miki this season because it wasn't close to as good as she "used to be." Who knows what Sasha can do if she shows at Natls?

I would say judges at the international level think Sasha has a little more than "pretty positions." Even many of Sasha's critics would admit her positions are exquisite. Joannie has "pretty positions" but Sasha has always been a level higher than most other skaters. Sometimes Mao hits some exquisite positions but not many other skaters really compare to Sasha in that area. Caroline hits lovely positions but without any real interpretive ability or any abilty to connect with the audience. Her skating has never impressed judges the way Sasha's did.

This whole business about Joannie, yes this Grand Prix season she has not been great, but at worlds last year, are you kidding me? She was awesome! The same goes for Miki, who is in no way an incomplete skater or light years behind Sasha. Her jumps are huge, she is super fast, has nice positions on her spins, and connects with the music. Sure, Sasha has better presence on the ice, but Miki's jumps put Sasha's to shame.

Joannie is one of the most expressive ladies out there today, and I think her presence and emotion rivals Sasha's. Her Sampson and Delilah program is gorgeous and if you watch it entirely you will notice she never gets out of character even when she makes mistakes. Like Yuna Joannie has mastered the subtle arm expressiveness. Her choreography between all the elements is superb and her jumps are much bigger and higher than Sasha, and she skates faster and has better edges. If Joannie lands her jumps, she should beat Sasha with little difficulty.

Of all the current skaters, Sasha is the most like Caroline. They are both flexible and have tiny jumps that are 1 inch off the ground. Caroline actually has more technical difficulty and success in her programs but obviously lacks Sasha's presence and ability to interpret the music, but if you put those aspects aside, Caroline is probably better than Sasha (the old Sasha).

 

[MKFSfan]

I really do not think Caroline could beat the Sasha of 2006. I do think Caroline has better spins and spirals, or at least-equals Sasha in spirals (both girls have tremendous flexibility and tension, but little speed and both lack deep edge work). Caroline's axle is in dire need of help while Sasha's 2a was always her best jump, IMO. The both struggle with their technique on toes jumps and while Caroline usually has great consistency, her mule kick/body twist places her jump quality lower than Sasha's. The one thing about Caroline that Sasha lacks is consistency and mental ability, and she had more transitions into (some of) her jumps. I think Caroline has been hit a blow to her confidence as of late, so we'll see how she comes out of this slump. I think she has so many tools and excels at non jump elements, but her jumps are not on par with the rest of her skating. It is a shame because she can get the highest TES at a competition and be among the lowest in PCS.

 

[fairly4]

unfortunately you are giving Sasha to much credit for supposedly withdrawing.

this is the same girl in 2002 that stated Michelle was too Old to skate and should get out (23-24) same age as Sasha is now.
This is the same girl with 2 on ice (went for Michelle on purpose) later came out as to get into Michelles head. This is the same girl the UFSA backed up stating she didn't try to get into michelle head or purposely get into michelle's way.

this is the same girl who knowing signed up for another pro show this year knowing full well in advance she had to skate in TEB and guess what pulled out with (injury).
I can't see Sasha pulling out -it isn't in her ego/type or character.

 

[janetfan]

The way I see it, Sasaha Cohen can get to the Olympics in one of two ways: 1. Win at Nationals or 2. Change her name to Michelle Kwan

Not her style - too easy and lacking in drama

 

[silverlake22]

unfortunately you are giving Sasha to much credit for supposedly withdrawing.

this is the same girl in 2002 that stated Michelle was too Old to skate and should get out (23-24) same age as Sasha is now.
This is the same girl with 2 on ice (went for Michelle on purpose) later came out as to get into Michelles head. This is the same girl the UFSA backed up stating she didn't try to get into michelle head or purposely get into michelle's way.

this is the same girl who knowing signed up for another pro show this year knowing full well in advance she had to skate in TEB and guess what pulled out with (injury).
I can't see Sasha pulling out -it isn't in her ego/type or character.

Sasha is 25, and I agree it's not in her character to pull out, but I think she will unless she can do all her jumps and do them well. If she goes to nats and does bad in the short I bet she'll withdrawal. Such a drama queen

That's weird about the Michelle stuff.....I really hope she doesn't bother any of the US ladies this year at nationals!

 

[MKFSfan]

All that Michelle stuff happened back in 2002. If I am remembering the gossip right, after a GP event where she pulled similar stunts against Jenny and...Fumie or Angela??? I forget, TAT supposedly pulled her aside and gave her a talking to, said there were more things to focus on in that precious 6 minute warm up than psyching out her competitors. That may just be some made up story, but rumor had it TAT does not tolerate those kinds of antics. Sasha has also matured a lot since then.

 

[silverlake22]

http://auntjoyceicecreamstand.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-and-that_17.html

Sounds like Sasha's in trouble, not that I am surprised. I really hope she just thinks through this comeback seriously, she could get really hurt competing before she's ready

 

[janetfan]

http://auntjoyceicecreamstand.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-and-that_17.html

Sounds like Sasha's in trouble, not that I am surprised. I really hope she just thinks through this comeback seriously, she could get really hurt competing before she's ready

ummm........I think Sasha is already hurt.

Maybe the comeback training will make her better :yes:

 

[Mathman]

Actually, if you read the whole paragraph Aunt Jane is kind of complementary of Sasha. He says that Sasha has a talent for pulling great programs out of thin air at the last moment. Stranger things have happened. :agree:

 

[chuckm]

Actually, if you read the whole paragraph Aunt Jane is kind of complementary of Sasha. He says that Sasha has a talent for pulling great programs out of thin air at the last moment. Stranger things have happened. :agree:

But here's what he says about that:

But, Sasha has pulled decent programs out of thin air in the past. She was not looking good prior to the 2005 Nationals yet managed to switch back to John Nicks and prepare in just a few weeks.

In the summer of 2005, Sasha was at odds with then-coach Robin Wagner and spent much of her time 'practicing' by herself. Then she reportedly suffered a recurrence of her back injury (no doubt caused by a sudden flurry of activity in preparation for the GP) and she had to withdraw from both GP assignments. She got back with Nicks and gave a non-spectacular account of herself at Nationals, losing to a 50% Kwan yet again.

But that was a time in which Sasha was competing on a regular basis and did have all her jumps. Quite different from now, when she hasn't competed in nearly 4 years and is suffering from a nagging injury that prevents her from practicing the jumps she needs to be competitive.

 

[janetfan]

But that was a time in which Sasha was competing on a regular basis and did have all her jumps. Quite different from now, when she hasn't competed in nearly 4 years and is suffering from a nagging injury that prevents her from practicing the jumps she needs to be competitive.

I can't disagree with that but you seem to be assuming the following:

1. Alissa will have all of her jumps
2. Caroline did not grow 4-5 inches and still has her jumps
3. Ashley will skate well without edge and ur calls, even a clean 2A
4. Mirai will be emotionally prepared to skate and show her best
5. Rachael for the first time in her senior career will skate a clean SP
5. Alexe.........maybe next year
6. Christina...definitely next year
7. Emily - better put the china in a safe place

8. Sasha needs a couple of decent triples and she will come 1st or 2nd

 

[chuckm]

I can't disagree with that but you seem to be assuming the following:

1. Alissa will have all of her jumps

USFS judges have consistently ignored Alissa's URs. In ISU competitions, even with URs, Alissa has scored no lower than 57.94 in her SP and 100.01in her FS. At Nationals, she can be expected to score mid-60s in her SP and at least 110 in her FS, since the URs go unnoticed. Heck, Alissa medaled at Skate Canada even with 3 URs, and she is almost certain to medal at US Nationals, especially since she is the reigning champion.

2. Caroline did not grow 4-5 inches and still has her jumps

Caroline is not a factor in the current scheme of things. She will finish top 6 or 7 and that's about it.

3. Ashley will skate well without edge and ur calls, even a clean 2A

Ashley WON the FS last year. Because her URs and flutzes have been ignored by USFS judges, she has the capability to score 110-120 at Nationals in the FS. And get credit for 6 rotated triples.

4. Mirai will be emotionally prepared to skate and show her best

Although I don't believe Mirai is quite ready to move into the top two (at least not yet), she is capable of great improvement since SC. While the ISU judges held back on her PCS scores, the USFS judges will be far more generous. IMO, Mirai should score well in the SP (mid 60s) and is good for at least 5 triples in the FS and is 100-110 points.

5. Rachael for the first time in her senior career will skate a clean SP

Rachael scored a clean SP at 2008 Nationals (62.91), 2008 Junior Worlds (60.19-with 3/3), and 2009 Nationals (60.18-no 3/3), so I have no idea where you got this idea from. Rachael's SP has never been her strong point, but her FS certainly is. She is capable of landing 7 triples and scoring 110-120 at Nationals.

5. Alexe.........maybe next year
6. Christina...definitely next year
7. Emily - better put the china in a safe place

These skaters are not competitive at this time.

8. Sasha needs a couple of decent triples and she will come 1st or 2nd

That ignores that fact that Sasha hasn't skated a competitive FS in nearly 4 years and has not demonstrated she has remastered 3Z, 3F and 3Lo. Two "decent triples" will not outscore Czisny, Wagner and Flatt. Sasha may be looking at 4th place or lower, and if she concludes that, she will most likely withdraw.

 

[MKFSfan]

8. Sasha needs a couple of decent triples and she will come 1st or 2nd

And you are assuming Sasha has the ability to land more than two clean triples. Yes, Sasha has beautiful and COP friendly spins, spirals and footwork, but if she cannot land more than a salchow and toe, she will not be a contender for any podium. I will gladly bet Sasha will include a loop, flip and lutz, and if she falls/badly botches on 3 or 4 attempts, you can be sure her marks will reflect that. Both a clean Rachael and clean Ashley are very capable of beating a 3 triple Sasha, but they cannot leave anything out of their planned SP and LP. I know Alissa was gifted about 10 points last Nationals, and that she only landed 3 clean triples, but don't forget she won overall pretty much due to the strength of her squeaky clean SP, which included a lutz and flip. She was third in the free skater after all.

 

[silverlake22]

That ignores that fact that Sasha hasn't skated a competitive FS in nearly 4 years and has not demonstrated she has remastered 3Z, 3F and 3Lo. Two "decent triples" will not outscore Czisny, Wagner and Flatt. Sasha may be looking at 4th place or lower, and if she concludes that, she will most likely withdraw.

Sasha needs more than a few decent triples to win, especially if those "decent triples" are a toes and sals. If she can't do loop, flip, lutz, she won't medal.

Even when Alissa falls and has URs (which the USFS usually ignores) you can still count on her landing a clean 3lz-2t, 3fl, 3t, and a 2a^2a sequence, and that's Alissa who has better spins, edging, and height on her jumps than Sasha, and rivals her presentation.

Mirai and Caroline also excel at spins and gumby moves and are good for 5-6 triples (including flip and lutz).

I don't think I have ever seen Rachael land less than 5 triples in a freeskate in her senior career so I don't think she'll start bombing now, and could very possibly land 6 or 7.

Ashley's flutz doesn't prevent her from getting scores of close to 110 INTERNATIONALLY, meaning at nationals she can get scores that are even higher.

Finally, lots of girls could surprise us at nationals. If someone like Angela, Christina, Alexe does a bomb job they could break top 5.

Coming in 1st or 2nd will not be easy for Sasha and I hope she knows this.

 

[janetfan]

Rachael scored a clean SP at 2008 Nationals (62.91), 2008 Junior Worlds (60.19-with 3/3), and 2009 Nationals (60.18-no 3/3), so I have no idea where you got this idea from. Rachael's SP has never been her strong point, but her FS certainly is. She is capable of landing 7 triples and scoring 110-120 at Nationals.

That ignores that fact that Sasha hasn't skated a competitive FS in nearly 4 years and has not demonstrated she has remastered 3Z, 3F and 3Lo. Two "decent triples" will not outscore Czisny, Wagner and Flatt. Sasha may be looking at 4th place or lower, and if she concludes that, she will most likely withdraw.

Rachael had pretty easy GP's this season but somehow manged to miss the GPF. Ashley made the GPF and as I predicted she got creamed by Yuna and Miki who were far from their best,

Sasha may not have competed for almost 4 years now - but we have seen what the other US girls can do the last two seasons. It is not good enough to be competitive and only Rachael has shown glimpes of being able to rise to the occassion.

It seems really bewildering for you to have so much confidence in a group that has proven beyond any doubt they are not good enough to compete against the world's best.

Why settle for such mediocrity if there is even the slightest chance.......