Can Sasha pull a "Michelle Kwan" and get on the Olympic team?

[gkelly]

No.

Sasha gets a bye to Nationals based on her 2006 Olympic medal.

To be named to the 2010 Olympic team, she would need some results from the 2009 and/or 2010 season. So far she doesn't have any. She's got one more chance to achieve some. She has to show up at Nationals and deliver the goods to have a chance at the Olympic team.

Let's wait and see whether she does.


Would Cohen have any interest in "pulling an Elaine Zayak"? I.e., returning to Nationals to skate as well as she can, for the publicity and for personal satisfaction, even if she doesn't make the Olympic team? Would that be worthwhile for her?

If all she's interested in is getting back to the Olympics, I doubt she'll show up unless she's training well enough to believe she has a good chance of qualifying.

 

[fairly4]

that won't be a problem for the usfsa-they probably already have it figured out-
what was the excuse they used to get her two gp events. which one would have sufficied.

has they stated she can't get on the team if she didn't go to nationals/ no --so she is on the team-. the y like all federations can choose her to be on the team.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

No.

Sasha gets a bye to Nationals based on her 2006 Olympic medal.

To be named to the 2010 Olympic team, she would need some results from the 2009 and/or 2010 season. So far she doesn't have any. She's got one more chance to achieve some. She has to show up at Nationals and deliver the goods to have a chance at the Olympic team.

Let's wait and see whether she does.


Would Cohen have any interest in "pulling an Elaine Zayak"? I.e., returning to Nationals to skate as well as she can, for the publicity and for personal satisfaction, even if she doesn't make the Olympic team? Would that be worthwhile for her?

If all she's interested in is getting back to the Olympics, I doubt she'll show up unless she's training well enough to believe she has a good chance of qualifying.

G - be careful... you are approaching this from a logical standpoint... it might be too close to Nationals and the Olympics for this to be appreciated...

 

[mskater93]

that won't be a problem for the usfsa-they probably already have it figured out-
what was the excuse they used to get her two gp events. which one would have sufficied.

has they stated she can't get on the team if she didn't go to nationals/ no --so she is on the team-. the y like all federations can choose her to be on the team.

You've obviously missed grossano's comments about LAWS that prevent that or you just think the rest of the skaters would roll over and take it if Sasha requested a bye to the Olympics and it was granted?

 

[MKFSfan]

Here is Sasha landing more than a few triples and also skating beautifully.

I don't think anyone knows if she will skate at Natls - but if she does she will probably try more than 3 triples.

I don't recall Sasha skating as a senior with only three or four triples.

Part of it was trying to keep up with Michelle, Irina, Shiz and the others .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2s-...1E88A061&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=33

That was one of Sasha's better skates, performed during what may have been the peak years of her career-2003-2006. It remains to be seen if she can complete that sort of jump layout in her present state.

Personally, I doubt Sasha will be at Nationals if she does not have all her triples back somewhat consistently. I really don't think a skater of Sasha's caliber, who was once a top contender at every competition she entered, will come back just for an "Elaine Zayack" moment.

As for her flip-I think she was pretty consistent with it, but she did have wonky edge technique entering the jump, would wobble on the edge kinda like Caroline does (although Caroline's is MUCH more dramatic). Supposedly this injury has hampered her training on the lutz, flip and loop. We'll have to be patient and see how it plays out! I can't believe there are NO sources observing her practices!

 

[Bruin714]

Possible Jump Layout for Cohen's Long Program:

Triple Filp
Triple Toe-double toe
Triple Sal-double toe
Triple Toe
Triple Sal
Dobule Axel-double toe-double toe
Double Axel

With the way the U.S. ladies have been skating, this is more than sufficient to win. And to place 2nd, she only needs to land a majority (5 or more) of these passes and she'll be fine. She can fall on the flip, no big deal in COP.

So, she doesn't even need a bye.

 

[gkelly]

That's 8 jumping passes. Ladies are only allowed 7.
So just take out the solo 2A. Or the flip if it's giving her trouble.

Of course, that's assuming she can actually land those all in 4 minutes. We don't know how she's doing.

 

[MKFSfan]

Very true, but I bet Sasha will include a lutz, take the risk of "e" call-if she can do a flip, she can do a flutz. I would be very surprised to see an "easier" jump layout, and she's more likely to repeat the flip over the toe, the toe has given her trouble over the years. I think if Sasha does not go for a 3/3 or 3^3, we'll see:

3lz/2t/2lp
3f/2t
3f
3t
3lp
3s
2ax^3s....or 2ax/2t, in that case, she can replace the solo 3t with a 3sal.

My feeling is Sasha will attempt to repeat the flip and salchow regardless of her jump layout.

 

[Bruin714]

With the example of Laura Lepisto, landing your "easy" triples is better than falling all over the difficult ones. The rest of Cohen's skaing (spins, spirals, step sequence) is superior to most ladies, so she'll do fine there. Plus, a clean program will boost her PCS.

What about the SP? To flutz or not to flutz?

 

[mskater93]

I don't see that during Sasha's heyday that her non-jumping elements are that superior to the current contenders: Nagasu, Flatt, Czsney, Zhang, and Wagner. All 5 of the mentioned ladies get high levels on the non-jump elements. Alissa gets big GOEs on all non-jump elements (including 2's and 3's on spiral sequence and solo spin). None of the above mentioned ladies gets negative GOEs on their non-jump elements, either, so Sasha has to at least attempt the money jumps (loop, flip, Lutz) and NOT get "<" or fall on more than one or two IF she shows up in order to be in the top 2. What was different and unique about Sasha has been copied up and down the skating world to get levels.

Sasha was never particularly fast nor did she have deep edgework, so her skating skills shouldn't be huge (unless she gets a BIG gift or has improved her speed, edgework and flow tremedously) comparatively to the other contenders. Since the balance of PCS tends to follow the SS trend with TR as the low mark, expect her to be in a similar corridor to the others, again IF she shows up...

 

[MKFSfan]

I think there is more reward for Sasha if she replaces the flutz with a loop in the SP. Even if she lands the flutz well, there may be a -1 deduction, and that will bring the value down to the base value of a loop anyway. So, if she lands a well done loop, she could get positive GOE's and maybe even equal what a lutz would've been with 0 GOE (IIRC, a lutz is worth 6 points, a loop 5 points). Obviously she'll needs to rotate the loop completely and land it cleanly for maximum points, but I always thought Sasha had a nice loop jump. She has always been a much better edge jumper than toe jumper. But in the LP, it's worth the deduction, just to have that extra triple even if it's not worth the full value.

 

[Tinymavy15]

With the example of Laura Lepisto, landing your "easy" triples is better than falling all over the difficult ones. The rest of Cohen's skaing (spins, spirals, step sequence) is superior to most ladies, so she'll do fine there. Plus, a clean program will boost her PCS.

What about the SP? To flutz or not to flutz?

It may be smarter to go for the easier triples, but it is not Sasha. She was never one to water down her programs. She always went for everything 100%...remember this is the girl who tried the quad and popped a jump maybe once in 5 years or so.

 

[chuckm]

But Sasha's flutz is truly egregious. She'd be sure to get "e" rather than "!" and that would be more than a -1 deduction.

Sure, Sasha could substitute a loop for the lutz, but she hasn't been doing the loop for the past 3 1/2 years, either. There's no guarantee that her loop is as good as it once was. If she hasn't been landing 3S and 3T consistently in exhibition, there are certainly no guarantees she can land those jumps (and the harder ones she hasn't done in years) cleanly in a 4-minute FS. And as she has a history of 0 clean free skates in major competitions (Olympics / Nationals/ Worlds) the likelihood of her doing a clean FS at Nationals, even with an easier jump layout, is close to nil.

That is, if Sasha shows up for Nationals. IMO, if by some chance she does show up at Nationals, but doesn't finish top 6 in the SP, she will withdraw because of injury.

 

[MKFSfan]

I agree completely that if Sasha cannot land more than a 3t and 3s, she will not be at Nationals. My speculation is more based on if Sasha has all her triples as if she did back in 2006, flutz and all.

 

[silverlake22]

I don't see that during Sasha's heyday that her non-jumping elements are that superior to the current contenders: Nagasu, Flatt, Czsney, Zhang, and Wagner. All 5 of the mentioned ladies get high levels on the non-jump elements. Alissa gets big GOEs on all non-jump elements (including 2's and 3's on spiral sequence and solo spin). None of the above mentioned ladies gets negative GOEs on their non-jump elements, either, so Sasha has to at least attempt the money jumps (loop, flip, Lutz) and NOT get "<" or fall on more than one or two IF she shows up in order to be in the top 2. What was different and unique about Sasha has been copied up and down the skating world to get levels.

Sasha was never particularly fast nor did she have deep edgework, so her skating skills shouldn't be huge (unless she gets a BIG gift or has improved her speed, edgework and flow tremedously) comparatively to the other contenders. Since the balance of PCS tends to follow the SS trend with TR as the low mark, expect her to be in a similar corridor to the others, again IF she shows up...

ITA. Zhang, Czisny, and Nagasu all have flexibility that rivals Sasha's, and their spins are all probably better than Sasha's in all honesty. Nagasu and Wagner are faster than Sasha, and Rachael has higher technical difficulty and better edges than Sasha. Ashley is the only one of the contenders that has a flutz problem rivaling Sasha.

Essentially, Sasha doesn't have a comparative advantage in anything except flexibility and presentation by a little bit and her being a decorated skater. The other thing is all the other top contenders attempt both flip and lutz in their LP, and at least one of those jumps twice. If Sasha can land a flip and two lutzes that aren't flutzes, and her other jumps, she has as good a shot as any, and probably a better shot than all. BUT if she can't do a flip and a lutz then she is going to be at a major disadvantage

 

[Mathman]

About the question of how the Olympic team will be chosen, I think this is the most telling point:

Whenever the subject comes up at Governing Council of the USFSA], the athletes are overwhelmingly in favor in having the order of finish at Nationlas be the sole deciding factor in naming the team.

The athletes want to skate for it. The alternative is to have the issue decided in a smoke-filled back room according to whose coach has the most pull, or whatever -- or at least to give the appearance that this is what's going on.

 

[gsrossano]

Seems we are getting into an immense amount of analysis of the skating of a skater who we haven't seen skate in a long long time.

We have no idea what Sasha's current strengths and weaknesses are. I haven't been able to find anyone local in So. Cal. who knows anything, no less anyone that knows something and is willing to share. And the hour drive to Aliso Viejo is just a bit more than I am motivated to take on to find out. (Dropping in at El Segundo for lunch is much more convenient.)

So speculate away, but in the absence of current real information, anything is within the realm of possibility next month, from the sublime to the tragic.

If she skates in Spokane, my prediction is she comes in somewhere between 1st and 12th.

 

[silverlake22]

If she skates in Spokane, my prediction is she comes in somewhere between 1st and 12th.

That's a pretty wide range...

 

[Olympia]

If she skates in Spokane, my prediction is she comes in somewhere between 1st and 12th.

I think that's the best speculation I've heard so far.

And you know I love Sasha. There aren't many who could skate the way she skated from about 2000 to 2006. The question is, can she skate like Sasha Cohen? I couldn't begin to answer that.

 

[gsrossano]

That's a pretty wide range...

Meant to highlight my point, there is no good information to make a good prediction.

Not that the following belongs here, but I don't want to start a thread. the new buzz in So. Cal. is that Angelyn and Themi are probably done and will not show up in Spokane.