Can Yuna score over 74 points in the short program?

[pangtongfan]

100% clean Kostner actually can't come close. If you take her FS score and add in the jumps she missed, giving +1 GOE for both, she gets up to 142 points. Assuming she gets +2 PCS due to 1 year's inflation, that's still 4 points off Yuna's FS score in a non-Olympic season, and she doesn't seem to be getting higher PCS as she's going from pre-Olympic to the Olympic season with a markedly worse program (assume same PCS).

Asada is trickier. If she cleans up all the jumps from her NHK FS to a good level but adds no new content, she'd have about 9 more points. This is assuming +1 GOE for her Axel and +1 for her 3S. If she can actually add in the 3-3 and skate her mythical, imaginary squeaky clean 8 triple FS, she'd have another 3 points for 150 points. While her NHK score was inflated, we can safely assume she'll get 70 PCS for a clean program in Sochi and cleaned-up jumps will score about the same as her not-so-clean but credited jumps at NHK.

Kim's FS was almost maxed out on GOE, so while it's possible she gets +3 on everything, that would be unexpected. She can reach 150 if her PCS exceeds 75.

So Mao can theoretically BV her way to victory if she's completely clean (Flutz notwithstanding) with 11 safely landed, fully rotated triples total compared to Kim's 9. Kostner cannot and moreover would need Kim to make at least 8 points worth of mistakes.

All makes sense. I remember last year some were saying Kostner can beat a clean Kim or clean Asada. Well maybe last year she could have, but not this year. She just got beaten by Julia L. who made more mistakes than she did, and crushed her in the SP by 5 points with a clean skate (with only about 1.5 points more in base value). Granted with somewhat biased Russian judging, but that is what we should expect in Sochi too. Kostner is in a scary spot now as it appears she isnt even a lock to finish 3rd if everyone were to skate cleanly, and she is one of the more inconsistent ones of that group too. To win the elusive Olympic medal she was all but handed by people after last years Worlds is going to take a very large effort on her part, and the gold medal isnt really a possability for her at this point.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

1. It's worth remembering that the judges at Grand Prix events are invited by the hosts, whereas judges at the championship events are "randomly" selected. I don't think Lipnitskaia would score as high for the same skate at the Olympics.

2. I still think Kostner can win if she skates cleanly. Though I'm less convinced of her skating cleanly and more convinced that Asada actually might, so there you go for that.

3.
Kim's Olympic score: 78.50
Points she earned from the spiral sequence (which is no longer a short program element): 3.50

So she gets 75 for that skate. GOE scaling being slightly lower, but PCS being higher, with a note that it seems easier to get a level four step sequence now (hers were called level three at the Olympics, but both her sequences were level four at last year's worlds) and the significant boost to GOE that gives her, I'd say she can get over 74 for a clean short program.

 

[chuckm]

Nearly all of Asada's 3as are double-footed but the tech panels seem to ignore that. When other skaters two-foot jumps, they get <.

 

[zamboni step]

Nearly all of Asada's 3as are double-footed but the tech panels seem to ignore that. When other skaters two-foot jumps, they get <.

Um....no.....no they don't.....

 

[Bartek]

Nearly all of Asada's 3as are double-footed but the tech panels seem to ignore that. When other skaters two-foot jumps, they get <.

You are not supposed to get < for two-footed landing. You receive it when you underrotate your jump...

 

[CarneAsada]

Nearly all of Asada's 3as are double-footed but the tech panels seem to ignore that. When other skaters two-foot jumps, they get <.

Ashley Wagner, 2013 TEB LP, 3F-3T. Enough said.

Yes, but if we believe os168, Mao is successful only because the JSF is such a strong federation, who is able to manipulate scores. Her success has nothing to do with what she puts out there.

You'd prefer to think that wouldn't you. Have I ever question her win this year? No. Do I have the right to question the score? Yes.
The difference is I have never point her out as the sole benefactor of the system, but you seem to imply I am the only person who notice these trends.

What we have here is a failure to communicate. I used to think that Mao-Yuna fanwars were amusing. Now I find them tiresome.
chloepoco: I highly doubt os168 thinks that Mao would score a 136 if she repeated her 2010 NHK Trophy performance. There are obviously limits.
os168: Surprisingly, I give your protocol evaluation method a . Well, maybe 9. It's nice and rigorous (of course, there are minor details that can be added). Where you go wrong, however, is that you set up the system but refuse to go through this method, stating reasonable assumptions and approximations, and demonstrating its use. That would be mandatory in engineering. By the way, if we're talking about sole benefactors in the skating world, we really should only talk about Yuna due to her charity work that gets a new thread about once every 2 weeks. If we're talking about beneficiaries, you have on multiple occasions said things like this:

Mao is undoubtly the biggest benefactor of all the change in all rules after the Olympics.

Again, replace benefactor with beneficiary and we have you saying that Asada has benefited the most from "the system." You might not be saying she is the only beneficiary, but that's not what chloepoco was claiming either (nor did he/she claim or imply that you were the only one saying these things; I mean, the entire Yu-na Kim Fan Forum probably says it too), and you have been saying that she is the biggest.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I wouldn't have bothered with this nonsense if not for the repeated misuse of benefactor/beneficiary.

 

[chloepoco]

Ashley Wagner, 2013 TEB LP, 3F-3T. Enough said.



What we have here is a failure to communicate. I used to think that Mao-Yuna fanwars were amusing. Now I find them tiresome.
chloepoco: I highly doubt os168 thinks that Mao would score a 136 if she repeated her 2010 NHK Trophy performance. There are obviously limits.
os168: Surprisingly, I give your protocol evaluation method a . Well, maybe 9. It's nice and rigorous (of course, there are minor details that can be added). Where you go wrong, however, is that you set up the system but refuse to go through this method, stating reasonable assumptions and approximations, and demonstrating its use. That would be mandatory in engineering. By the way, if we're talking about sole benefactors in the skating world, we really should only talk about Yuna due to her charity work that gets a new thread about once every 2 weeks. If we're talking about beneficiaries, you have on multiple occasions said things like this:

Again, replace benefactor with beneficiary and we have you saying that Asada has benefited the most from "the system." You might not be saying she is the only beneficiary, but that's not what chloepoco was claiming either (nor did he/she claim or imply that you were the only one saying these things; I mean, the entire Yu-na Kim Fan Forum probably says it too), and you have been saying that she is the biggest.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I wouldn't have bothered with this nonsense if not for the repeated misuse of benefactor/beneficiary.

My comment was directed at os168 because he/she repeats the same thing all the time. BTW, I'm not a Mao uber, I like Yuna and Mao equally. And that's all I'm saying on this subject.

 

[CarneAsada]

My comment was directed at os168 because he/she repeats the same thing all the time. BTW, I'm not a Mao uber, I like Yuna and Mao equally. And that's all I'm saying on this subject.

I would've said nothing on this subject if I hadn't seen the same word misused 3 times in a row (of course, when one reposts the same rant so many times, I guess it's bound to happen). That just makes my teeth itch.

 

[OS]

bunch of waffles.

Oh yes... as reliable as ever, my dearest arch nemesis, my lethargic benefactor. Just can't help it can you

Fine, I deserve it. Unlike someone with their jumps, I don't deny my L skill do suffer from chronic under revision. It causes me great deal of pain, stress and often embarrassment but hopefully it can be understood by the majority without severe downgrades from a lenient GS judging panel - preferably with NHK tech panel in support

It does concern me however, you managed to dig out a post from a completely different thread from what ... 3 weeks ago?!!! Seriously! While I am flattered by all the attention, but your stalkish behaviour are starting to scare me. I recall you once brought up some comment I made on some random posts on a completely unrelated subject like more a year from FSU?... Wow! Is your astrology sign Scorpio or something? (no offense to other scorpios)

Your lack of transition confound me, and despite the odd miracle 9s, I do wish you'd stop being so Joe Inman play judging politicks to undermine every little thing I have to say (although admittedly that wouldn't be very hard with my crap Engrish). Fortunately, I will survive with my platinum ego. May I suggest you try take out your itch via PM from now on to continue your loving tribute to your beloved beneficiary... then we can really get personal

 

[yyyskate]

Say whatever you want, I will just keep calm and wait to watch Yuna's 2 new programs.

 

[Becki]

Without question, she can and has in the past.

 

[CarneAsada]

Oh yes... as reliable as ever, my dearest arch nemesis, my lethargic benefactor. Just can't help it can you

There's nothing to fear. I'm trying to save you. Why do you resist your saviour? It baffles me how much you are scared by being corrected. Criticism may be a bitter pill to swallow, but perhaps you could try watching Mary Poppins when in a bad mood - after all, a spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down, right?

Say whatever you want, I will just keep calm and wait to watch Yuna's 2 new programs.

Unlike you, I don't need to wait to know that she can and most likely will score over 74 points. My only wish is that she chooses to take needless risks, show cheeky disregard for skating superstitions, and add beautiful details that are worth zero points to flaunt her superiority.

 

[OS]

There's nothing to fear. I'm trying to save you. Why do you resist your saviour? It baffles me how much you are scared by being corrected. Criticism may be a bitter pill to swallow, but perhaps you could try watching Mary Poppins when in a bad mood - after all, a spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down, right?

Eh? Where did I display scared of being corrected? Unlike some, I am happy to acknowledge any mistakes instead pretend they don't exist, and I certainly welcome criticisms, otherwise how'd one learn to improve?

So the stalker offers itself as a saviour as well impose its prescription of bitter pills to cure its victim now. You might want to recheck your Stockholm Syndrome Practitioner guidebook for dummies because the parrot technique is kind of useless. It only provoke the usual eye ball rolling action that's about it.

Wait... Mary Poppins was a Mao exhibition program the last time I checked. I do wish a spoonful full of sugar is a medicine more of her fans will take to avoid being so passive aggressive all the time. I've never got that attitude from Mao herself. She has been nothing but lovely and nice, pampered but lovely. If her fans are as nice and huggable, maybe we could have been yunamaobots together one day. Imagine that! *shudder* Kosbots and Rusbots will have no chance!!!

As for the point thing... i think all these talk are bit useless without seeing the said program relative to other programs/performance/protocols first. Otherwise it is like acknowledging all these benchmark up to date as if they are all valid and just, which was my entire argument before it got muddled into the same old tiresome charade. I don't imagine this type of appraisal was possible under 6.0 without seeing the program/performance first, so it shouldn't be credible under COP either whatever these numbers may seem to suggest. COP maths doesn't work the same logic as the one we learnt in school, you need almost a secondary degree in analysis and interpretation to decipher the meaning/reason behind these numbers. If it had been so logical like everyone seems to claim, there wouldn't be that many outrage and disagreement at different competitions.

 

[hurrah]

I've never got that attitude from Mao herself. She has been nothing but lovely and nice, pampered but lovely.

Pampered by whom, might I ask?　　

Since this is a thread about Yuna Kim, I would appreciate it if you would leave Mao out of this thread.

 

[Ambivalent]

How unfortunate that some people are unable to enjoy the talents of Yu-Na and Mao. Never in doubt that this thread would descend into a fan war.

 

[yyyskate]

Unlike you, I don't need to wait to know that she can and most likely will score over 74 points. My only wish is that she chooses to take needless risks, show cheeky disregard for skating superstitions, and add beautiful details that are worth zero points to flaunt her superiority.

As I said, I will just keep calm and wait to be touched once again by Yuna's 2 new programs and ignore your insinuation.

 

[yyyskate]

Pampered by whom, might I ask?　　

Since this is a thread about Yuna Kim, I would appreciate it if you would leave Mao out of this thread.

Ironically, Yuna's thread like this kind, often filled with Mao uber's comments (claimed or not, bashing Yuna in all sorts of shades). Yuna's fan has already learned to keep calm. Occasionally, will pop up to defend Yuna a bit...

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Ironically, Yuna's thread like this kind, often filled with Mao uber's comments (claimed or not, bashing Yuna in all sorts of shades). Yuna's fan has already learned to keep calm. Occasionally, will pop up to defend Yuna a bit...

When and where did that happen?

 

[zamboni step]

Ironically, Yuna's thread like this kind, often filled with Mao uber's comments (claimed or not, bashing Yuna in all sorts of shades). Yuna's fan has already learned to keep calm. Occasionally, will pop up to defend Yuna a bit...

I'd consider myself far more of a Mao fan than a Yu-Na fan. But I'd never bash her, unless claiming Mao would come out marginally higher in the SP if both skated clean with actual numbers is bashing. The only bashing that's been going on in this thread is mild Akiko bashing.

 

[hurrah]

I really would like to know who os168 thinks Mao is being pampered by? He doesn't have anything against Mao herself who he thinks is 'nothing but lovely and nice'.

The only complaint he has is that Mao is pampered. So what if Mao is pampered? I mean, if she's pampering (i.e., spoiling) herself by not practicing enough and yet complaining after competitions that judges aren't awarding her with enough points or something, then that would be a different matter, but if someone besides Mao decides to pamper her, then good for her and good for them. If Mao is pampered (i.e., well-loved), it just means that Mao is that cute and attractive that people are drawn to her and want to do whatever they can for her, including pampering. So, so what if she's pampered?

Anyway, I don't really see Mao as someone who has been 'pampered'. I see Mao as someone who has devoted herself 200% to figureskating and has given the sport so much. How many skaters can you think of who went about their business attending GP series facing the possibility that every single time she left town, she might never see her mother alive again? Where is the pampering in that??