Olympic Team Competition Predictions

[Yatagarasu]

As things stand now, I would say ... Canada and Russia, then probably USA. I think it is Canada's to lose. Of course, it is early, who knows where we'll be this time next season but knock on wood, everyone stays healthy, I still think Canada has the slight edge and those two teams have a very big one ahead of the third place.

 

[4everchan]

But T/M is going to win over any Canadian pair but D/R (in fact they just won GPF but I understand D/R peak at the main events).

S/M are irrelevant - Germany is unlikely to be in the team event. Even then it's all about relative places of Canada and Russia. I think it is going to be close.

T/M also had issues at Skate America... not sure they are demonstrated that they can easily beat other teams... GPF was a disastrous outing for D/R... first competition in a long time they lose badly.... and first time T/M wins over them...

My point however is simple : you are making assumptions about what Patrick and D/R will do regarding participating in the team event. So, I have simply returned the ball to your camp... Do you really know how committed would S/K be, after all, they are among favourites to win pairs... and that's really the only thing missing from their collection and Russia's best wish to retain the pairs title they have only lost once at olympics if i recall...

 

[olayolay]

If everyone skated clean, I think Canada would take it...

...but Patrick and Kaetlyn aren't very consistent.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

But T/M is going to win over any Canadian pair but D/R (in fact they just won GPF but I understand D/R peak at the main events).

S/M are irrelevant - Germany is unlikely to be in the team event. Even then it's all about relative places of Canada and Russia. I think it is going to be close.

Well if Aliona and Bruno do the SP for Germany they could still create distance between the top pairs if they end up placing in between them.

 

[4everchan]

Clean skates = Canada will win... Agreed. I think it is to be expected that Patrick isn't yet consistent as he is adding new content. Kaeltyn's short is extremely consistent... Her LP is improving... some competitions she gets the combos and some she gets the solo jumps... She also added the loop which is new to her. So I remain hopeful that they will be more consistent next year.

D/R are having issues this year, but again, they are also trying to add content... I think that during Olympic years, skaters will be a bit more cautious.

If everyone skated clean, I think Canada would take it...

...but Patrick and Kaetlyn aren't very consistent.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If everyone skated clean, I think Canada would take it...

...but Patrick and Kaetlyn aren't very consistent.

Unlike last time, I think a clean SP by Kaetlyn would place 2nd or 3rd since now she's getting the PCS and improved her elements for higher GOE.

 

[[email protected]]

Do you really know how committed would S/K be, after all, they are among favourites to win pairs... and that's really the only thing missing from their collection and Russia's best wish to retain the pairs title they have only lost once at olympics if i recall...

Of course, I have no clue. It will all depend on their physical shape. If they are going to be at the peak I think they will go for it. V/T got 2 golds in Sochi and all in all about a million dollars. Well, they are a family but splitting it also is a lot of money. We are just speculating after all.

 

[4everchan]

speculating we are... wow... that's a lot of money... is that what the russian government gave athletes??? our Canadian athletes are not spoiled like that.

 

[[email protected]]

speculating we are... wow... that's a lot of money... is that what the russian government gave athletes??? our Canadian athletes are not spoiled like that.

Politics section is closed but anyway. It is mostly private sponsors who cover this or that federation. I am a bit of an insider (not from FS but from a summer sport). They make donations into a special Olympic foundation. So it is mostly not state money. The athletes play tricks in Russia. They represent a certain region. And in addition to a federal sum and a federal BMW X6 (V/T got 4 of those for 4 gold medals taking money instead) athletes receive money from regions where regional sponsors contribute. Sometimes athletes represent more than 1 region. I guess V/T are good businessmen. There was an article in a Russian newspaper that calculated "their million". Maxim was furious after that.

 

[4everchan]

ok.. yeah... i think i will avoid getting into that because it is really politics... i find it a bit too bad though, to think that athletes would compete for prize money but at the same time, why not??? Tennis players are getting very well paid and still get to go to the olympics, if they want to

Politics section is closed but anyway. It is mostly private sponsors who cover this or that federation. I am a bit of an insider (not from FS but from a summer sport). They make donations into a special Olympic foundation. So it is mostly not state money. The athletes play tricks in Russia. They represent a certain region. And in addition to a federal sum and a federal BMW X6 (V/T got 4 of those for 4 gold medals taking money instead) athletes receive money from regions where regional sponsors contribute. Sometimes athletes represent more than 1 region. I guess V/T are good businessmen. There was an article in a Russian newspaper that calculated "their million". Maxim was furious after that.

 

[lyndichee]

Politics section is closed but anyway. It is mostly private sponsors who cover this or that federation. I am a bit of an insider (not from FS but from a summer sport). They make donations into a special Olympic foundation. So it is mostly not state money. The athletes play tricks in Russia. They represent a certain region. And in addition to a federal sum and a federal BMW X6 (V/T got 4 of those for 4 gold medals taking money instead) athletes receive money from regions where regional sponsors contribute. Sometimes athletes represent more than 1 region. I guess V/T are good businessmen. There was an article in a Russian newspaper that calculated "their million". Maxim was furious after that.

Didn't they sell the car or something? I remember this lovely shoot of them after the Olympics in a magazine and they said the cars were too expensive to maintain so they sold it. Maybe I read it wrong, they probably sold it/opted for cash prize instead.

Canadian athletes from both Winter and Summer have very little funding. It's a maximum of $18,000 for senior athletes from Skate Canada. A family friend went to 2008 Olympics and she had to fund her own sport and work full time while pursuing her sport. They basically make no money if their sport isn't lucrative/they don't get a lot of endorsements.

I think the podium might be the same as 2014. If Nathan Chen stays injury free and skates the team competition and Scimeca/Knierim make a comeback, I think USA might give Canada and Russia a run for their money as well. I am very excited for this event.

 

[MarkusNJ]

I really wish that after the qualifying round, they completely erased all scores and started fresh, so that there would be some excitement as to the outcome. I love the idea of the team event, but it seemed that the medals were already decided going into the final.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

OK, so its very plausible this is full of mistakes. But here is what I got today when I plugged in the current SB scores and assigned ranking points based on them. I only used the overall SB scores rather than separate short & free SB scores. Just didn't occur to me to do otherwise until after I had finished. (Oh, well, it's all in fun anyway). I did not mess with the SB scores. There were several times when I thought, Well, it’s not likely to work out this way. But I didn’t change anything based on my own instincts or consistency or head-to-head results or citizenship issues or athletes out from injury, etc. I used the top current SB score from each country in each discipline. Period. Less subjectivity that way. (And in many cases, if I had made the changes, it would have separated the teams more rather than altering the final results).

Total Points:
Canada-72 points
Russia-65 points
U.S.-60 points
Japan-57 points
France-51 points

The most interesting results, to me, were that France made it out of the qualifying round over China and that Japan & the U.S. tied during the final round. The U.S. comes out ahead based on the qualifying round, and I think it’s true that the U.S. has an advantage over Japan there. There are a lot of ways that China could make up the difference on France, in at least three disciplines, so I went ahead & ran an alternate scenario with China in the final group. (It didn’t change any of the top 4 countries’ placements. For that to happen China would need better scores, which they are certainly capable of). I also ran an alternative qualifying round scenario, with Australia instead of the Czech republic. It didn’t alter the results of any of the other 9 teams in the qualifying round either.

Here is all the data for how I got there:

Current SBs

Canada #1 pair, #1 dance, #5 men, #4 ladies

Russia #2 pair, #5 dance, #13 men, #1 ladies

U.S. #9 pair, #3 dance, #4 men, #8 ladies

Japan #26 pair (but likely no citizenship & the most likely team isn’t on the SB list), #29 dance, #1 men, #2 ladies

France #6 pair, #2 dance, #31 men, #26 ladies

China #5 pair (Sui & Han haven’t skated though & were #2 last year at Worlds), #33 dance, #6 men, #32 ladies

Italy #11 pair, #9 dance, #63 men, #9 ladies

Korea has #39 pair, #28 dance, #18 man, #25 ladies

Germany #3 pair, #24 dance, #62 men, #47 ladies

Czech Republic has #22 pair, #35 dance, #27 men, #87 ladies

Australia has the #29 pair, #98 dance, #36 men, #53 ladies

Great Britain #60 pair, (top dance team is injured but #7 from Worlds), #73 men, #99 ladies

UKR has the #54 pair, #34 dance, #61 men, #145 ladies




Qualifying Round w/the Top 10 Teams Above
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. Germany-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. France-6pt.
6. U.S.-5pt.
7. Italy-4pt.
8. Czech Republic-3pt.
9. Japan-2pt.
10. Korea-1pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. France-9pt.
3. U.S.-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. Italy-6pt.
6. Germany-5pt.
7. Japan-4pt.
8. Korea-3pt.
9. China-2pt.
10. Czech Republic-1pt.
Men:
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. Russia-6pt.
6. Korea-5pt.
7. Czech Republic-4pt.
8. France-3pt.
9. Germany-2pt.
10. Italy-1pt.
Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Italy-6pt.
6. Korea-5pt.
7. France-4pt.
8. China-3pt.
9. Germany-2pt.
10. Czech Republic-1pt.

Qualifying Results:
Canada-36 points
Russia-32 points
U.S.-29 points
Japan-26 points
France-22 points
China-19pts.
Italy-17pts. (Tie)
Germany-17pts. (Tie)
Korea-14pts
Czech Republic-9pts
(Australia-7pts-if you switch Australia in for the Czech Republic)







Final Round
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. France-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. France-9pt.
3. U.S.-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Men
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. Russia-7pt.
5. France-6pt.
Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. France-6pt.

Final:
Canada-36 points
Russia-33 points
U.S.-31 points (tie)
Japan-31 points (tie)
France-29 points

Total Points:
Canada-72 points
Russia-65 points
U.S.-60 points
Japan-57 points
France-51 points





Alternate Qualifying Round w/Australia
Pairs:
11. Canada-10pt.
12. Russia-9pt.
13. Germany-8pt.
14. China-7pt.
15. France-6pt.
16. U.S.-5pt.
17. Italy-4pt.
18. Japan-3pt.
19. Australia-2pt.
20. Korea-1pt.
Dance:
11. Canada-10pt.
12. France-9pt.
13. U.S.-8pt.
14. Russia-7pt.
15. Italy-6pt.
16. Germany-5pt.
17. Japan-4pt.
18. Korea-3pt.
19. China-2pt.
20. Australia-1pt.
Men
11. Japan-10pt.
12. U.S.-9pt.
13. Canada-8pt.
14. China-7pt.
15. Russia-6pt.
16. Korea-5pt.
17. France-4pt.
18. Australia-3pt.
19. Germany-2pt.
20. Italy-1pt.
Ladies:
11. Russia-10pt.
12. Japan-9pt.
13. Canada-8pt.
14. U.S.-7pt.
15. Italy-6pt.
16. Korea-5pt.
17. France-4pt.
18. China-3pt.
19. Germany-2pt.
20. Australia-1pt.


Alternate Final Round w/China

Qualifying Round
Pairs:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. Russia-9pt.
3. China-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. Japan-6pt.
Dance:
1. Canada-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Russia-8pt.
4. Japan-7pt.
5. China-6pt.
Men
1. Japan-10pt.
2. U.S.-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. China-7pt.
5. Russia-6pt

Ladies:
1. Russia-10pt.
2. Japan-9pt.
3. Canada-8pt.
4. U.S.-7pt.
5. China-6pt.

Final Points w/China:
Canada 36 pts.
Russia 33 pts.
U.S. 32 pts. (tie)
Japan 32 pts. (tie)
China-27pts
(Overall rankings would remain the same as the earlier comparison, with China switched in for France)

I think you need to reconsider scores in a way that qualifying round rank teams only by their results in short program/dance, and final round by free program/dance. I'm pretty sure Tarasova/Morozov score higher than Duhamel/Radford in short this season, and i think Stolbova/Klimov and Sui/Han will surely do. D/R strength is free, as Osmond and Gold strength could be short, etc... But thanks, i find it interesting anyway...

 

[Daniel1998]

At this point it looks like a two horse race, but it's way, way, way too early to be predicting much of anything.

The USA could storm back in the next year- Chen could rise to the top of the field, the ladies might get their groove back again, the many US pairs will find their footing, and the Shibs might continue to improve.

I think Canada will have a stronger team than they did last time around.

Russia will probably win both ladies events, SP and FS, which gives them some margin to work with, although Osmond has shown she can score 75 in the short and Daleman continues to improve. The Canadian ladies will score much more points in the ladies event than they did in 2014.

Chan will likely outscore whatever Russian competitor he faces in the men's event by a good margin in both the short and the long if he skates close to his ability.

Pairs is the real question here, because I see this as a duel between D/R and T/M (and maybe S/K). They've been going back and forth all season, and I think whoever gets the edge here will have a big impact on the final placement. If D/R can outscore the Russian pair in this event, that might be a decisive turning point for the Canadians.

Canada will probably beat Russia comfortably in ice dance for both the short and the long, especially in a bias-neutral zone like South Korea.

I think, because Canada has the clear edge in two disciplines and Russia only has the clear edge in one, Canada is the slight favourite. But again, we're miles away from the Olympics. Anything could happen.

 

[olayolay]

At this point it looks like a two horse race, but it's way, way, way too early to be predicting much of anything.

The USA could storm back in the next year- Chen could rise to the top of the field, the ladies might get their groove back again, the many US pairs will find their footing, and the Shibs might continue to improve.

I think Canada will have a stronger team than they did last time around.

Russia will probably win both ladies events, SP and FS, which gives them some margin to work with, although Osmond has shown she can score 75 in the short and Daleman continues to improve. The Canadian ladies will score much more points in the ladies event than they did in 2014.

Chan will likely outscore whatever Russian competitor he faces in the men's event by a good margin in both the short and the long if he skates close to his ability.

Pairs is the real question here, because I see this as a duel between D/R and T/M (and maybe S/K). They've been going back and forth all season, and I think whoever gets the edge here will have a big impact on the final placement. If D/R can outscore the Russian pair in this event, that might be a decisive turning point for the Canadians.

Canada will probably beat Russia comfortably in ice dance for both the short and the long, especially in a bias-neutral zone like South Korea.

I think, because Canada has the clear edge in two disciplines and Russia only has the clear edge in one, Canada is the slight favourite. But again, we're miles away from the Olympics. Anything could happen.

Men and pairs traditionally being first on the schedule means Chan will probably sub out for the LP though. Can Nam Nguyen/Kevin Reynolds beat Kolyada? IDK.

 

[Daniel1998]

Men and pairs traditionally being first on the schedule means Chan will probably sub out for the LP though. Can Nam Nguyen/Kevin Reynolds beat Kolyada? IDK.

Yeah, that's a good point. I'm not sure how the switching out is going to work.
By that logic, wouldn't Kolyada switch out too? Or would someone else have done the short?

 

[olayolay]

Yeah, that's a good point. I'm not sure how the switching out is going to work.
By that logic, wouldn't Kolyada switch out too? Or would someone else have done the short?

That's definitely a possibility. I think a lot depends on the substitution strategies for countries. Team gold medalists in Russia get the same financial reward as individual gold medalists so Kolyada might decide to go all in on the team event.

I think most countries will stick with men/pairs substitutions though. Which is a shame for Canada. I'd like to see Weaver/Poje get an Olympic medal.

 

[Mango]

Canada's substitutes will be Séguin/Bilodeau in the FS and likely Reynolds in the FS. Kaetlyn and Tessa & Scott will have to do both short and free.

 

[Ice Dance]

I think you need to reconsider scores in a way that qualifying round rank teams only by their results in short program/dance, and final round by free program/dance.

Perhaps you should reconsider them. The data is certainly available! (And people may feel free to copy and mess with mine).

As I said at the top, it just didn't occur to me until the work was already done.

There are really so many factors to consider. Most significantly, I think, who will go up? Who in the short? Who in the free? I doubt Hanyu will do the free. Do we think Duhamel & Radford would do theirs? Right before the pairs event? How about Patrick? Do we think Sui & Han will go up at all? (China has a better chance at a medal from them in the pairs event than in the team. But they have a better chance at a team medal than they did last time). Would China put Jin up twice if China did make the final? (I doubt it. They will have to use their dance team & lady twice. They will probably have Han Yan go up). Is the U.S. going to put up two men and two ladies? One would think there would be a push to use two dance teams if they remain ranked back to back. The Chinese dance team is likely to score higher than the Koreans. Min & Gamelin attended Tallinn Trophy, where the scores were flying. What is the chance that Laurine LeCavelier really scores higher than Zijun Li? LeCavelier earned that score at home in France and isn't exactly known for her consistency. (Speaking of home scores, a good many of these SBs were earned on home soil. The only team on home soil at the Olympics will be Korea). But then--a year ago--what was the chance Kaetlyn Osmond would have a higher SB than Ashley Wagner? It's figure skating. The ground is always changing. Germany's top pair is injured. Their second pair just split. Their top lady is injured. Who knows who will be healthy to compete? Or how Kostner's scores will hold up for Italy outside the Challenger circuit? The men are incredibly volatile no matter who goes up. Loads of questions & ways to rethink.

Have fun.

 

[zebobes]

I really wish that after the qualifying round, they completely erased all scores and started fresh, so that there would be some excitement as to the outcome. I love the idea of the team event, but it seemed that the medals were already decided going into the final.

I agree, I hope that the way the scoring is done will be changed for the next team event, however, I don't know if it's a good idea to just throw away the scores from the short. I think the problem lies in the fact that the highest score in the free is very close to the lowest score... 10 to 6. Because of this, it is practically impossible for there to be much movement in the free. I think that for the free, if the scores were doubled, considering that usually the FS is worth more in figure skating, it would make the scores range from 12 to 20 points. That gives the different teams more ability to make up on point gaps, and make it a little more exciting.

For Sochi, this is what the point totals would be.

Russia: 113
Canada: 102
United States: 93
Italy: 81
Japan: 78

It doesn't change the positions for Sochi, but I think maybe it would give the other teams more motivation to do well in the free?