Pairs: Maria VIGALOVA / Egor ZAKROEV no longer competing due to injury.
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20141224/796529041.html
http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20141224/796529041.html
Russian Championships: Predictions Game Round 4
- Thread starter CaroLiza_fan
- Start date
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
Here we go! After the Starters we have had over the past couple of weeks, it is now time for the Main Course!
Although it is always the National Championship that I look forward to most, I always hate the process of making predictions. For the simple reason that, all in all, I want EVERYBODY to do well, and it really pains me to have to put skaters that I really like outside the Top 6 (or, even outside the Top 10!)
In the ladies, I had a real dilemma over what to do with Alena Leonova. I knew what order I wanted to put the top 4 in. And I knew what order I wanted to put the top 4 Juniors in. But I just could not decide where to put Alena amongst the Juniors. In the end, I just decided “Well, Sakhanovich and Medvedeva are usually well matched, so I’ll keep them together. And going by the qualifying. Proklova shouldn’t even be there. So, I’ll put Alena behind Sakhanovich and Medvedeva, and in front of Proklova and Sotskova”.
Outside of the Top 8, it was basically ordered by PB. With one exception. I raised Polina Korobeynikova up to 10th, as I’ve always really liked her, and couldn’t bear to put her outside the Top 10. OK, so it meant pushing another girl I like, one who has a bigger PB, out of the Top 10 (Maria Artemievea). But, I really want to see Polina K have a resurgence after the disaster she had last season.
For the other categories, I only deviated from the PB’s within the Top 6. With the Men, I had only seen the guys in 7th – 11th once before (last year’s Nationals), so was not confident enough to make changes. And the guys below that I had never heard tell of before. In Pairs, I had seen all except the 11th placed couple before, but just couldn’t think of any changes to make. And for Dance, I had never heard tell of the ones outside the Top 6.
In Men, I knew who exactly I wanted in the Top 6, and largely what order I wanted to put them in. But, the problem was what order to put the podium men in. My heart wants the older guys (Voronov and Menshov) to get the top 2 positions, and then Kovtun get the bronze. But, my head keeps telling me that, if he doesn’t make too many mistakes, Kovtun will be stronger than just third. So, I reluctantly put him ahead of Menshov.
In Pairs, I knew the order I was putting the top 4 in. But, after that, there was a problem. What to do with Vera Bazarova, Yuri Larionov and their new partners. Because, although I’ve seen Vera and Andrei a couple of times, I haven’t seen Yuri and Natalja yet. So, unlike Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov in Dance, I’ve no indication where the former partners are in relation to each other. Or to the Junior couples. So, in the end, I just decided to put both of the former partners in my Top 6.
Dance was a lot easier, as there were only 6 partnerships where I recognised the names! And I knew pretty much which order I wanted to put them in. The only real uncertainty was Zahorsky and Gueirreiro, as they are a new partnership. Jonathan’s PB with Ekaterina Pushkash was only 1.5 points above Kosigina / Maroshkin’s PB, whereas Tiffany’s PB with Alexis Mairt was 8 points lower. And, in the World Rankings at the end of last season, Pushkash / Gueirreiro were 39th with 1369 points, while Kosigina / Maroshkin were 41st with 1300 points. On the other hand, Zahorsky / Mairt were in 107th with 175 points. So, since Jonathan’s previous partnership was so well matched with Kosigina / Maroshkin, Tiffany’s previous partnership became the tie-breaker. And since she was lower, I put her and Jonathan in 6th.
Sorry for writing so much this time, but this is my favourite Nationals of the year, and I wanted to explain the thinking behind what you may or may not think are strange decisions.
CaroLiza_fan
RUSSIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ladies
1. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
2. Elena RADIONOVA
3. Julia LIPNITSKAIA
4. Anna POGORILAYA
5. Serafima SAKHANOVICH
6. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
Just for fun
7. Alena LEONOVA
8. Alexandra PROKLOVA
9. Maria SOTSKOVA
10. Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA
11. Maria ARTEMIEVA
12. Elizaveta IUSHENKO
13. Alsu KAIUMOVA
14. Natalia OGORELTSEVA
15. Maria STAVITSKAIA
16. Diana PERVUSHKINA
17. Maria GOROKHOVA
18. Ekaterina BAYANOVA
Men
1. Sergei VORONOV
2. Maxim KOVTUN
3. Konstantin MENSHOV
4. Artur GACHINSKI
5. Alexander PETROV
6. Adian PITKEEV
Just for fun
7. Moris KVITELASHVILI
8. Gordei GORSHKOV
9. Andrei LAZUKIN
10. Artur DMITRIEV
11. Artem LEZHEEV
12. Alexander SAMARIN
13. Dmitri ALIEV
14. Daniil BERNADINER
15. Eugene VLASOV
16. Vladislav KAYNOV
17. Anton SHULEPOV
18. Roman Galkin
Pairs
1. Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Yuri LARIONOV
Just for fun
7. Maria VIGALOVA / Egor ZAKROEV
8. Arina CHERNIAVSKAIA / Antonino SOUZA-KORDYERU
9. Vasilisa DAVANKOVA / Alexander ENBERT
10. Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV
11. Tatiana KUZNETSOVA / Semen STEPANOV
Dance
1. Elena ILINYKH Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
4. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
5. Evgenia KOSIGINA / Nikolai MOROSHKIN
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO
Just for fun
7. Margarita BELYAKOVA / Dmitry VOLKOV
8. Liudmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV
9. Anastasia SAFRONOVA / Ilia ZIMIN
10. Angelica KANIVETS / Alexei CHIZHOV
Although it is always the National Championship that I look forward to most, I always hate the process of making predictions. For the simple reason that, all in all, I want EVERYBODY to do well, and it really pains me to have to put skaters that I really like outside the Top 6 (or, even outside the Top 10!)
In the ladies, I had a real dilemma over what to do with Alena Leonova. I knew what order I wanted to put the top 4 in. And I knew what order I wanted to put the top 4 Juniors in. But I just could not decide where to put Alena amongst the Juniors. In the end, I just decided “Well, Sakhanovich and Medvedeva are usually well matched, so I’ll keep them together. And going by the qualifying. Proklova shouldn’t even be there. So, I’ll put Alena behind Sakhanovich and Medvedeva, and in front of Proklova and Sotskova”.
Outside of the Top 8, it was basically ordered by PB. With one exception. I raised Polina Korobeynikova up to 10th, as I’ve always really liked her, and couldn’t bear to put her outside the Top 10. OK, so it meant pushing another girl I like, one who has a bigger PB, out of the Top 10 (Maria Artemievea). But, I really want to see Polina K have a resurgence after the disaster she had last season.
For the other categories, I only deviated from the PB’s within the Top 6. With the Men, I had only seen the guys in 7th – 11th once before (last year’s Nationals), so was not confident enough to make changes. And the guys below that I had never heard tell of before. In Pairs, I had seen all except the 11th placed couple before, but just couldn’t think of any changes to make. And for Dance, I had never heard tell of the ones outside the Top 6.
In Men, I knew who exactly I wanted in the Top 6, and largely what order I wanted to put them in. But, the problem was what order to put the podium men in. My heart wants the older guys (Voronov and Menshov) to get the top 2 positions, and then Kovtun get the bronze. But, my head keeps telling me that, if he doesn’t make too many mistakes, Kovtun will be stronger than just third. So, I reluctantly put him ahead of Menshov.
In Pairs, I knew the order I was putting the top 4 in. But, after that, there was a problem. What to do with Vera Bazarova, Yuri Larionov and their new partners. Because, although I’ve seen Vera and Andrei a couple of times, I haven’t seen Yuri and Natalja yet. So, unlike Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov in Dance, I’ve no indication where the former partners are in relation to each other. Or to the Junior couples. So, in the end, I just decided to put both of the former partners in my Top 6.
Dance was a lot easier, as there were only 6 partnerships where I recognised the names! And I knew pretty much which order I wanted to put them in. The only real uncertainty was Zahorsky and Gueirreiro, as they are a new partnership. Jonathan’s PB with Ekaterina Pushkash was only 1.5 points above Kosigina / Maroshkin’s PB, whereas Tiffany’s PB with Alexis Mairt was 8 points lower. And, in the World Rankings at the end of last season, Pushkash / Gueirreiro were 39th with 1369 points, while Kosigina / Maroshkin were 41st with 1300 points. On the other hand, Zahorsky / Mairt were in 107th with 175 points. So, since Jonathan’s previous partnership was so well matched with Kosigina / Maroshkin, Tiffany’s previous partnership became the tie-breaker. And since she was lower, I put her and Jonathan in 6th.
Sorry for writing so much this time, but this is my favourite Nationals of the year, and I wanted to explain the thinking behind what you may or may not think are strange decisions.
CaroLiza_fan
RUSSIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ladies
1. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
2. Elena RADIONOVA
3. Julia LIPNITSKAIA
4. Anna POGORILAYA
5. Serafima SAKHANOVICH
6. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
Just for fun
7. Alena LEONOVA
8. Alexandra PROKLOVA
9. Maria SOTSKOVA
10. Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA
11. Maria ARTEMIEVA
12. Elizaveta IUSHENKO
13. Alsu KAIUMOVA
14. Natalia OGORELTSEVA
15. Maria STAVITSKAIA
16. Diana PERVUSHKINA
17. Maria GOROKHOVA
18. Ekaterina BAYANOVA
Men
1. Sergei VORONOV
2. Maxim KOVTUN
3. Konstantin MENSHOV
4. Artur GACHINSKI
5. Alexander PETROV
6. Adian PITKEEV
Just for fun
7. Moris KVITELASHVILI
8. Gordei GORSHKOV
9. Andrei LAZUKIN
10. Artur DMITRIEV
11. Artem LEZHEEV
12. Alexander SAMARIN
13. Dmitri ALIEV
14. Daniil BERNADINER
15. Eugene VLASOV
16. Vladislav KAYNOV
17. Anton SHULEPOV
18. Roman Galkin
Pairs
1. Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV
5. Vera BAZAROVA / Andrei DEPUTAT
6. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Yuri LARIONOV
Just for fun
7. Maria VIGALOVA / Egor ZAKROEV
8. Arina CHERNIAVSKAIA / Antonino SOUZA-KORDYERU
9. Vasilisa DAVANKOVA / Alexander ENBERT
10. Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV
11. Tatiana KUZNETSOVA / Semen STEPANOV
Dance
1. Elena ILINYKH Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
4. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
5. Evgenia KOSIGINA / Nikolai MOROSHKIN
6. Tiffany ZAHORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO
Just for fun
7. Margarita BELYAKOVA / Dmitry VOLKOV
8. Liudmila SOSNITSKAIA / Pavel GOLOVISHNIKOV
9. Anastasia SAFRONOVA / Ilia ZIMIN
10. Angelica KANIVETS / Alexei CHIZHOV
Last edited:
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2014
Nah, I love the analysis and thought process behind these decisions. The trickiest part for me is trying to merge together my two mental lists into one predictions list. And by two lists, I mean:
List #1: The order you hope things will turn out.
List #2: The order you fear things will actually play out in reality.
Obviously, predictions ought to be based mostly off #2, but I really can't bring myself to do it. For instance, I think Liza will have a difficult time coming away with 1st place here (despite her strong season's performance so far), but I still cannot move her out of first placement in my predictions.
Honestly, I was mentally prepared for Radionova to win the GPF in the weeks leading up to it, but was pleasantly surprised when Liza won, and my predictions were realized.
Tricky business, this prediction stuff. CaroLiza_fan, you seem to have a pretty good track record, so maybe our first picks for Ladies will become reality again!
List #1: The order you hope things will turn out.
List #2: The order you fear things will actually play out in reality.
Obviously, predictions ought to be based mostly off #2, but I really can't bring myself to do it. For instance, I think Liza will have a difficult time coming away with 1st place here (despite her strong season's performance so far), but I still cannot move her out of first placement in my predictions.
Honestly, I was mentally prepared for Radionova to win the GPF in the weeks leading up to it, but was pleasantly surprised when Liza won, and my predictions were realized.
Tricky business, this prediction stuff. CaroLiza_fan, you seem to have a pretty good track record, so maybe our first picks for Ladies will become reality again!
Men:
1) Voronov - oh, I hope so much that he`ll be ahead of Kovtun!!!
2) Kovtun
3) Menshov
4) Pitkeev
5) Petrov
6) Gachinskiy
7) Dmitriyev
8) Gorshkov
9) Kvitelashvili
10) Aliyev
Ladies:
1) Radionova
2) Tuktamysheva
3) Medvedeva
4) Sakhanovich
5) Lipnitskaya
6) Sotskova
7) Leonova
8) Pogorilaya
9) Artemieva
10) Korobeynikova
Pairs:
1) Stolbova/Klimov
2) Kavaguti/Smirnov
3) Astakhova/Rogonov
4) Tarasova/Morozov
5) Zabiyako/Larionov
6) Davankova/Enbert
7) Bazarova/Deputat
8) Gubanova/Sintsov
9) Cherniavskaya/Souza-Kordeiru
10) Kuznetsova/Stepanov
Dances:
1) Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
2) Monko/Khaliavin - maybe their time has finally come?
3) Stepanova/Bukin
4) Sinitsina/Katsalapov
5) Zagorski/Gureiro
6) Kosygina/Moroshkin
7) Sosnitskaya/Golovishnikov
8) Beliakova/Volkov
9) Kanivets/Chizhov
10) Safronova/Zimin
1) Voronov - oh, I hope so much that he`ll be ahead of Kovtun!!!
2) Kovtun
3) Menshov
4) Pitkeev
5) Petrov
6) Gachinskiy
7) Dmitriyev
8) Gorshkov
9) Kvitelashvili
10) Aliyev
Ladies:
1) Radionova
2) Tuktamysheva
3) Medvedeva
4) Sakhanovich
5) Lipnitskaya
6) Sotskova
7) Leonova
8) Pogorilaya
9) Artemieva
10) Korobeynikova
Pairs:
1) Stolbova/Klimov
2) Kavaguti/Smirnov
3) Astakhova/Rogonov
4) Tarasova/Morozov
5) Zabiyako/Larionov
6) Davankova/Enbert
7) Bazarova/Deputat
8) Gubanova/Sintsov
9) Cherniavskaya/Souza-Kordeiru
10) Kuznetsova/Stepanov
Dances:
1) Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
2) Monko/Khaliavin - maybe their time has finally come?
3) Stepanova/Bukin
4) Sinitsina/Katsalapov
5) Zagorski/Gureiro
6) Kosygina/Moroshkin
7) Sosnitskaya/Golovishnikov
8) Beliakova/Volkov
9) Kanivets/Chizhov
10) Safronova/Zimin
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
For CaroLiza_fan:
Zahorski/Guerreiro SD
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zft93-fVpZE
Zahorski/Guerreiro FD
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HZiYjid-_c4
Zahorski/Guerreiro SD
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zft93-fVpZE
Zahorski/Guerreiro FD
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HZiYjid-_c4
Last edited:
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
Thank you so much Doris. You know, for a new partnership, they are looking very polished already.
I really hope that the French Federation do the decent thing and let Tiffany go.
At the end of the day, her only ties with France were through her former partner. At least she has family ties with Russia (Although Tiffany's family is obviously of Polish extraction, they did live in Russia for a few generations).
By the way, did anybody else notice that now she is skating in Russia, Tiffany is being referred to by her (Russian) middle name, Anastasia.
Anastasia is what is down in the entry list but, to avoid confusion, I used the name we all know her by in the first post of this thread.
I suppose it's the same as what happened with Ivan Bariev. Now that he's skating in Italy, he is using the surname of the Italian side of his family, Righini.
Well, when in Rome... (or, in Tiff's case, should that be Moscow...?
)CaroLiza_fan
Last edited:
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2010
I noticed that too, I just assumed that her Russian/Polish family gave her a Western sounding first name to make her blend in better in Western Europe, but kept her roots with a Russian middle name.
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
As we all have to be in bed early for Santa coming tonight, I am doing this further in advance than normal.
THIS IS YOUR TWELVE HOUR WARNING.
You have just 12 hours left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 13:00 MSK (11:00 CET / 10:00 GMT) tomorrow.
And, for our American friends, that target time is 05:00 EST.
CaroLiza_fan
THIS IS YOUR TWELVE HOUR WARNING.
You have just 12 hours left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 13:00 MSK (11:00 CET / 10:00 GMT) tomorrow.
And, for our American friends, that target time is 05:00 EST.
CaroLiza_fan
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
THIS IS YOUR ONE HOUR WARNING.
You have just 1 hour left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 13:00 MSK (11:00 CET / 10:00 GMT).
And, for our American friends, that target time is 05:00 EST.
CaroLiza_fan
You have just 1 hour left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 13:00 MSK (11:00 CET / 10:00 GMT).
And, for our American friends, that target time is 05:00 EST.
CaroLiza_fan
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
It has now gone 13:00 MSK (11:00 CET / 10:00 GMT), and I am afraid that means the target time for getting your predictions in has now passed.
However, if you still want to enter, I will use my discretion to accept entries for each discipline right up to the start of their Short Programme.
The Men's Short will start in an hour's time at 14:00 MSK (12:00 CET / 11:00 GMT)
And hopefully a livestream will appear in the meantime... (Fingers crossed!!!)
CaroLiza_fan
However, if you still want to enter, I will use my discretion to accept entries for each discipline right up to the start of their Short Programme.
The Men's Short will start in an hour's time at 14:00 MSK (12:00 CET / 11:00 GMT)
And hopefully a livestream will appear in the meantime... (Fingers crossed!!!)
CaroLiza_fan
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2014
Just in case I'd like to add before the competition starts:
7. Natalja ZABIJAKO / Yuri LARIONOV
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- Joined
- Oct 25, 2012
No problem!
But, does this mean that you are expecting somebody else to withdraw before the end of the competition?!
CaroLiza_fan
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2014
No, I don't. It's more just be prepared for the worst.No problem!
But, does this mean that you are expecting somebody else to withdraw before the end of the competition?!
CaroLiza_fan
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
Ladies scores 
Gold: noidont & SashaJuliaSpins 65 points!
Silver: CarneAsada 60 points!
Bronze: Danja, HanDomi, Sandpiper, sequinsgalore, voolfee, & yuna 55 points!
Congratulations!
And kudos to the 8(!) of the 9 'medalists' who were the only ones to predict the podium correctly!
There is a technical issue with the spreadsheet right now, so please wait for all the scores to be listed there. Thanks
Gold: noidont & SashaJuliaSpins 65 points!
Silver: CarneAsada 60 points!
Bronze: Danja, HanDomi, Sandpiper, sequinsgalore, voolfee, & yuna 55 points!
Congratulations!
And kudos to the 8(!) of the 9 'medalists' who were the only ones to predict the podium correctly! There is a technical issue with the spreadsheet right now, so please wait for all the scores to be listed there. Thanks
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2014
Ladies scores
Gold: noidont & SashaJuliaSpins 65 points!
Silver: CarneAsada 60 points!
Bronze: Danja, HanDomi, Sandpiper, sequinsgalore, voolfee, & yuna 55 points!
Congratulations!
There is a technical issue with the spreadsheet right now, so please wait for all the scores to be listed there. Thanks
Satine94, I applaud your efficiency and I thank you for this late Christmas present! I am on fire people!
Crying for Julia, but so happy for me!!!
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2011
Hi all!!
I have scored everyone bu some names are not yet in the spreadsheet. I have all the scores written down though and they will be added promptly once names are placed on the spreadsheet.
GOLD: Danja with a perfect 75!!!
SILVER: CarneAsada, Florencito, FSGMT, jaimelee122, Sandpiper, and me, tulosai, with a score of 70!!
BRONZE: text_skate with a score of 65!
I have scored everyone bu some names are not yet in the spreadsheet. I have all the scores written down though and they will be added promptly once names are placed on the spreadsheet.
GOLD: Danja with a perfect 75!!!
SILVER: CarneAsada, Florencito, FSGMT, jaimelee122, Sandpiper, and me, tulosai, with a score of 70!!
BRONZE: text_skate with a score of 65!
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2011
Wow, cool, I'm getting better at this! I never imagined I'd be getting silver.
Thank you so much, tulosai and satine94!
I didn`t expect I would be so...successful (yeaahh, I`m so happy with it!!!). Now I`m a little bit less disappointed by the fact that I`ve completely forgotten about Japanese Nationals and will get for them zero points.
I didn`t expect I would be so...successful (yeaahh, I`m so happy with it!!!). Now I`m a little bit less disappointed by the fact that I`ve completely forgotten about Japanese Nationals and will get for them zero points.
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