The Zayak and Quad Limitation Rule

[Sam-Skwantch]

Guys, remember when after Vancouver the ISU allowed the 3A in the SP for the Ladies and people thought that basically that Mao Asada would end up winning everything because she was the only lady who landed it? We all know what happened.

Honestly, I don't dispute that ISU federation members try to lobby for the rules in favor of their skaters, but the so-called "Mao Asada rule" with the 3A in the SP didn't really play out for Mao as many predicted.

In other words, let's see how the rules play out. Perhaps what we're expecting will happen, but I won't be surprising if there comes some odd winners out of these rule changes.

This is a very stress free way to look at things

 

[Old Cat Lady]

But while the TES looks good for him, PCS will have a bit more weight, which could hurt him compared to other guys if those marks stay the same and balance things out. However, his PCS have trended up somewhat the last season or two.

I thought the increase in PCS got rejected. Was it included in the big package that everyone voted on?

 

[narcissa]

You are making a statement that Nathan's skating skill is more than 2 quads worth (20+ points) inferior than Hanyu's? I just don't know how this can be true...but the past scores don't seem to support that. Well I am a new fan so idk :confused2:

It's not 2 quads worth, it'll be 2 quads minus 2 good triples (one of which would be a 3A, which usually gets pretty close to perfect GOE).

 

[Mrs. P]

This is a very stress free way to look at things

I am the mother of a toddler. I am not putting extra stress on myself.

 

[Shanshani]

You are making a statement that Nathan's skating skill is more than 2 quads worth (20+ points) inferior than Hanyu's? I just don't know how this can be true...but the past scores don't seem to support that. Well I am a new fan so idk :confused2:

While the difference is not attributable to the skating skill component in particular, if we compare their personal bests in the free skate, Yuzuru Hanyu scored nearly 4 points higher for a 4 quad FS than Nathan Chen did for a 6 quad one.

 

[cohen-esque]

Well, with one fewer jump, it’ll weigh more by virtue of TES being lower. Especially since the actual GOE increments for most jumps, some spins, and the steps (all under the 4Lo) are actually smaller, though there’s a higher possible value now.

 

[Mamamiia]

It's not 2 quads worth, it'll be 2 quads minus 2 good triples (one of which would be a 3A, which usually gets pretty close to perfect GOE).

Ok.that makes sense.

 

[Shanshani]

I don't know what cohen-esque has on their spreadsheets, but mine show roughly a 9 point drop in TES for Yuzuru Hanyu's 2017 Worlds performance switching over to the new rules (I dropped the 3F from the calculations and refactored the GOEs by multiplying the average of the raw -3 to 3 scores by 5/3). That's about the squeakiest clean skate you'd be able to find, so it does seem like the new rules do result in a modest decrease in TES. Nathan Chen's 2018 Worlds FS shows a 10 point drop in score (and a 6 point drop in score in just the SP, yikes) using the same conversion rules. Yuzu somehow gets away with his 2017 Worlds SP score not changing very much though.

Edit: I noticed a mistake in my spreadsheet. Yuzu's 2017 Worlds FS drops by 4 points, not 9. So uh, the decrease in TES is even more modest than I said.

 

[eaglehelang]

It's funny how both the Hanyu camp and the Chen camp thinks that this hurts their skater. I keep going back and forth. When I thought it was only going to be 1 quad per type, I thought it favored Chen because of his variety of quads. Then I thought about it more and thought it favored Hanyu because the 3 axel becomes more important and it limits Chen to 5 quads max. a 5 quad Hanyu still beats a 7 quad Chen. But now that you can repeat 1 jump I don't know what to think anymore ... I suppose it depends on why Chen dropped the loop (did it hurt his hip?) and if Hanyu's ankle ever heals completely and if judges actually follow GOE requirements for every skater.
.......

To me, the vagueness on the GOE is going to have a much bigger impact at the top than the quad limit. Though the quad limit really hurts the second tier skaters with only 2 quads.

Its hurts both Hanyu and Nathan in the sense both have to add back a quad.
Hanyu has to do a 4 Loop to make it the usual 4 quads in the LP. Even if Hanyu goes back to repeating 3A, he still needs 4L.

Nathan has to bring back 4L to maintain 6 quads like this past season. If he doesnt, Nathan still has 5 quads which is more than the other men.

And Vincent Zhou, who repeated 2 quads at WC 2018. But the others have said Vincent usually repeats 3A so he can go back to that.

Shoma and Boyang only repeats 1 quad so it doesnt effect them. Though after his foot injury at WC, Shoma wants to bring back his 4S in case of injuries limiting his execution of 4L.
If I remember correctly, both only do 4 quads in LP. Shoma tried 5 quads layout and gave it up
With less 1 jump and less 30 seconds, it'll be interesting to see how the men experiment different layouts.

Theorically, yes, the quad rule effects those with only 2 quads ,and weak 3A. Some have mentioned those with 2 quads most only repeat 1 anyway.

 

[cohen-esque]

Hmm you've done the spread sheet stuff, so I'll defer on this to you. But I think the +GOE potential on quads might not really mean this at all.

I don't know what cohen-esque has on their spreadsheets, but mine show roughly a 9 point drop in TES for Yuzuru Hanyu's 2017 Worlds performance switching over to the new rules (I dropped the 3F from the calculations and refactored the GOEs by multiplying the average of the raw -3 to 3 scores by 5/3). That's about the squeakiest clean skate you'd be able to find, so it does seem like the new rules do result in a modest decrease in TES. Nathan Chen's 2018 Worlds FS shows a 10 point drop in score (and a 6 point drop in score in just the SP, yikes) using the same conversion rules. Yuzu somehow gets away with his 2017 Worlds SP score not changing very much though.

Another example: Hanyu's Olympics FS. And some numbers.

Under the new system, a jump with +4 will be worth pretty much the same as with a +3 under the old system; some worth very slightly more, some worth slightly less. (The Lutz gets the biggest comparative boost as a triple; the flip as a quad.)

2A New +4: 4.62 New +5: 4.95 Old +3 4.80
3T New +4: 5.88 New +5: 6.30 Old +3 6.40
3S New +4: 6.02 New +5: 6.45 Old +3 6.50
3Lo New +4: 6.86 New +5: 7.35 Old +3 7.20
3F New +4: 7.42 New +5: 7.95 Old +3 7.40
3Lz New +4: 8.26 New +5: 8.85 Old +3 8.10
3A New +4 11.20 New +5 12.00 Old +3 11.50

4T New +4: 13.30 New +5: 14.25 Old +3 13.30
4S New +4: 13.58 New +5: 14.55 Old +3 13.50
4Lo New +4: 14.70 New +5: 15.75 Old +3 15.00
4F New +4: 15.40 New +5: 16.50 Old +3 15.30
4Lz New +4: 16.10 New +5: 17.25 Old +3 16.60
4A New +4: 17.50 New +5: 18.75 Old +3 18.60

Basically everything under a FSSp4 is worth less; the StSq4 is worth less; the StSq3, and F/CCSp4 on up are worth a bit more. The ChSq is worth a lot more.

The backloading bonus is being restricted and many guys will lose the bonus on at least one jump there. The +3T and +3S, probably the most often used ends of combinations, are worth slightly less, as it the +2Lo. And an entire jumping pass is being removed.

Hanyu got 206.17 for his free skate at the Olympics under the old system.

If we give him the same GOE and keep all his elements under the new system, he gets 198.05, with a drop of -8.21 TES.

If he earned straight +5 GOE on every single clean element *and* he lost only the same negative GOE for his mistakes... 211.63. That's only 5.46 points higher for literally perfect GOE on all his clean elements whereas at the Olympics, he had lots of +2s and some +1s and still came that close.

Oh. But the rules are changing. So, if we remove the 3Lo, the lowest BV jump, and replacing the second 4S with a 3A, so that his layout aligns with new rules, he only gets 189.66.

---

So, yeah. TES got nerfed, at least for the men. One of the ISU's stated goals with these chances was to bring TES back in line with PCS and I have to grudgingly admit, they did a good job of it.

 

[Shanshani]

I made a mistake on my calculations for Yuzu's 2017 worlds FS (the last spin didn't get added to the total score). So actually the drop is a lot lower, only about 4 points. Basically, under this new system, if you skate squeaky clean with very high GOE, TES comparable to what was achieved under the old system is possible, but if you make mistakes/don't execute well, your TES is going to drop pretty precipitously.

 

[chopinskate]

So, yeah. TES got nerfed, at least for the men. One of the ISU's stated goals with these chances was to bring TES back in line with PCS and I have to grudgingly admit, they did a good job of it.

TES got nerfed, but I wonder how much it really matters, in the sense that everyone's been forced to drop a jump, and that PCS differences might not change. Coupling this with the new GOE guidelines... I don't see the rankings at the 2017W changing, for instance (maybe Boyang would've been silver, but probably not). I mean, the differences between TES and PCS might remain the same, so this isn't really showing a change in results, since those depend on differences, too. I might have to do the math though. The new GOE guidelines might mean the differences in TES change a little now, but not too much.

A increase in factoring of the PCS + this would definitely mean that PCS matters more.

 

[Shanshani]

TES got nerfed, but I wonder how much it really matters, in the sense that everyone's been forced to drop a jump, and that PCS differences might not change. Coupling this with the new GOE guidelines... I don't see the rankings at the 2017W changing, for instance (maybe Boyang would've been silver, but probably not). I mean, the differences between TES and PCS will remain the same, so this isn't really showing a difference in results, since those depend on differences, too? I might have to do the math though.

A refactoring of the PCS + this would definitely mean that PCS matters more.

That's true, but the reason PCS scores don't have much of an impact in men's is because PCS numbers are relatively close together, whereas TES numbers are very different from each other. In order for PCS to make a big difference, the difference between PCS scores has to go up. The raw value of the score itself doesn't really matter--if you just added 50 or subtracted 50 from everyone's scores, the rankings would be the same (in fact, if you subtracted 50 you'd probably get a more realistic impression of how much PCS actually affects the competition, lol). Multiplying the PCS by a higher factor would cause the PCS spread to widen a bit, but I'm not sure changing it to, say 0.6x and 1.2x, is ultimately going to have an enormous effect either. For instance, if we compare the difference between Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu's PCS scores in the free in 2018 and 2017 Worlds respectively, multiplying both scores by 1.2 only increases the difference between the scores by a single point--the equivalent of 1 GOE point on a quad or jumping a quad lutz instead of a quad loop. This really comes down to judging.

 

[chopinskate]

That's true, but the reason PCS scores don't have much of an impact in men's is because PCS numbers are relatively close together, whereas TES numbers are very different from each other. In order for PCS to make a big difference, the difference between PCS scores has to go up. The raw value of the score itself doesn't really matter--if you just added 50 or subtracted 50 from everyone's scores, the rankings would be the same (in fact, if you subtracted 50 you'd probably get a more realistic impression of how much PCS actually affects the competition, lol). Multiplying the PCS by a higher factor would cause the PCS spread to widen a bit, but I'm not sure changing it to, say 0.6x and 1.2x, is ultimately going to have an enormous effect either. For instance, if we compare the difference between Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu's PCS scores in the free in 2018 and 2017 Worlds respectively, multiplying both scores by 1.2 only increases the difference between the scores by a single point--the equivalent of 1 GOE point on a quad or jumping a quad lutz instead of a quad loop. This really comes down to judging.

Yes, this is why I don't think "PCS mattering more" is an accurate statement. We have already discussed that Jin and Uno won't have to change layouts, and there's been a of of talk about Hanyu and Chen. But honestly, the differences in PCS and TES won't be changing (unless they all make drastic changes we can't really predict), so this doesn't really change how much PCS affects it.

To be annoying -- again, the real solution would have been to fix the judging.

 

[Izabela]

Pretty interesting discussion here everyone. I get a better sense of how this new SOV rule wants to change the playing field of this sport.

For those who can do this better than I can, and am calling cohen-esque and Shanshani here for help, would it be fine it you recalculate the scores of Nathan and Deniss in Worlds 2018 FS to see how the new SoV impacts the scores between those who have the quads and those who mainly have the triples? If there is a better example, that would be great as well. Since, as been mentioned elsewhere, the main purpose of this new calculation appears to be about shrinking the gap between those two “tiers” of skaters, at least in the men’s field, as much as it is about leveling the TES with PCS. Many thanks!

ETA: Or maybe comparing Shoma and Deniss 18WC FS would be better too. To see if someone with a relatively clean FS without quad can theoretically win against a skater who has the quads but falls. Will still not be a perfect projection of course, because of the PCS differences, but how much/little the gap will shrink should still be noticeable.

 

[chopinskate]

One combo that we might see more of, instead of the -3Lo ones, is the 3A-1Lo-3F, instead of 3A-1Lo-3S. It's a pretty minor difference in BV (and GOE will still be off the 3A's value), but it's still present.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

Its hurts both Hanyu and Nathan in the sense both have to add back a quad.
Hanyu has to do a 4 Loop to make it the usual 4 quads in the LP. Even if Hanyu goes back to repeating 3A, he still needs 4L.

Nathan has to bring back 4L to maintain 6 quads like this past season. If he doesnt, Nathan still has 5 quads which is more than the other men.

Has anyone seen Nathan practice the 4L? I'm curious if he dropped it completely. Seems like that 4 loop is a must for Nathan if Hanyu gets his 4 loop back.

Shoma and Boyang only repeats 1 quad so it doesnt effect them. Though after his foot injury at WC, Shoma wants to bring back his 4S in case of injuries limiting his execution of 4L.
If I remember correctly, both only do 4 quads in LP. Shoma tried 5 quads layout and gave it up
With less 1 jump and less 30 seconds, it'll be interesting to see how the men experiment different layouts.

The quad rule doesn't affect them but I think the changes in GOE could have a huge impact. Jin's jumps are pretty flawless so I can see him getting a lot of +3/4's while Shoma can get hit really hard with the negative GOE's while not even having the potential for more than +3 and then add in GOE's being based on percentage. I could easily see a clean 4lz by Jin (no negatives, exceptional height/distance, effortless, good takeoff/landing, choreographed to music: 11.5+4.6=16.1) being worth 5+ points more than a clean 4 flip from Shoma (lacks "very good" height and distance to get more than +3, very poor take off -3 =11) . Comparing lz and flip since Shoma doesn't have 4 lz and Jin doesn't do 4 flip so they would be their highest value jumps. If they both change their layout to repeat their most difficult jump, that's already a 10+ advantage to Jin.

I completely forgot about Vincent. I'm thinking if Kolyada stabilizes his 4 lutz he should still be ahead of Vincent while hoping for mistakes from the big 4.

 

[Shanshani]

Pretty interesting discussion here everyone. I get a better sense of how this new SOV rule wants to change the playing field of this sport.

For those who can do this better than I can, and am calling cohen-esque and Shanshani here for help, would it be fine it you recalculate the scores of Nathan and Deniss in Worlds 2018 FS to see how the new SoV impacts the scores between those who have the quads and those who mainly have the triples? If there is a better example, that would be great as well. Since, as been mentioned elsewhere, the main purpose of this new calculation appears to be about shrinking the gap between those two “tiers” of skaters, at least in the men’s field, as much as it is about leveling the TES with PCS. Many thanks!

ETA: Or maybe comparing Shoma and Deniss 18WC FS would be better too. To see if someone with a relatively clean FS without quad can theoretically win against a skater who has the quads but falls. Will still not be a perfect projection of course, because of the PCS differences, but how much/little the gap will shrink should still be noticeable.

I haven't checked this for mistakes but here's what I've got for 2018 Worlds FS (this takes into account jumping pass reduction and backloading rule changes too).
Nathan Chen: 209.71
Shoma Uno: 168.60
Deniss Vasiljevs: 168.00

Very close between Shoma and Deniss, but Shoma still edges Deniss out.

Edit: caught a minor mistake, Shoma's score is now 169.02. Also calculated Kazuki Tomono's score, which turned out to be 167.05. So interestingly, Deniss beats Kazuki but not Shoma

 

[chopinskate]

I completely forgot about Vincent. I'm thinking if Kolyada stabilizes his 4 lutz he should still be ahead of Vincent while hoping for mistakes from the big 4.

You're underestimating Kolyada. He has the skating skills, and the presentation ability, and his jumps when hit are as good as Jin's and Hanyu's (great height, and fully rotated in the air with time before settling down. Jin and Hanyu get better length, though, and do also fully rotate their jumps when they hit them.) His main problem is consistency, and lack of variety in quads -- with the 4Lz he can do at most three clean ones in the LP. I don't like his programs, but he gets the PCS for them anyway. He is a wild card, but then so is Chen.

Zhou is the wildest card of them all -- I just don't know if his technique will be fixed soon enough, but he doesn't usually get called on it anyway.

 

[chopinskate]

Edit: caught a minor mistake, Shoma's score is now 169.02. Also calculated Kazuki Tomono's score, which turned out to be 167.05. So interestingly, Deniss beats Kazuki but not Shoma

What caused this?