The Zayak and Quad Limitation Rule

[Izabela]

I haven't checked this for mistakes but here's what I've got for 2018 Worlds FS (this takes into account jumping pass reduction and backloading rule changes too).
Nathan Chen: 209.71
Shoma Uno: 168.60
Deniss Vasiljevs: 168.00

Very close between Shoma and Deniss, but Shoma still edges Deniss out.

Thanks for this. If we were to generalize from this data, it appears that the impact of the new SOV for those with 4-5 quads is a reduction of around ~10 in their overall scores factoring in the mistakes (if PCS remain the same). Whereas, with a relatively clean "triple" program, it will only reduce the scores to ~2 points. An 8 point difference as an advantage for a triple program and as a disadvantage for a 4-5 quad program is relatively big.

Let's see if we run the scores against Tomono who has 1 quad at his arsenal. :grin:

ETA: I saw your edit, hmm now I am more curious how Deniss beat Tomono in this case.

I think it's because of the GOE factor no? Since Tomono had a negative GOE on his 4S-2T combo. Wow, the GOE recalculation really has the most impact in this particular case.

 

[Shanshani]

Deniss beat Kazuki with a combination of GOEs and PCS. Kazuki starts off with a 9.5 point advantage in BV, but Deniss had a little over a 4 point advantage in PCS, so Deniss only had to make up a 5.5 point deficit to against Kazuki on GOEs. Deniss had a little over 6 points worth of GOE points over Kazuki, enough to edge him out. Kazuki's negative GOE on his quad combo really hurt him, but Deniss also had higher GOEs in almost all elements. (Also, I found another small error with how StSq3 GOEs were being calculated, so Kazuki's score is now 167.27--lol, this is hard. Doesn't affect the analysis though.)

 

[eaglehelang]

The quad rule doesn't affect them but I think the changes in GOE could have a huge impact. ...

I completely forgot about Vincent. I'm thinking if Kolyada stabilizes his 4 lutz he should still be ahead of Vincent while hoping for mistakes from the big 4.

GOE impact- yeah, its just the +5 GOE thing been discussed since few months ago. Yes, it effects Shoma more Boyang, more so Boyang now is changing to coaches who can improve his skating skills.

Not surprisingly, a lot of people missed Vincent zhou cos he bombed at 2018 WC. I only noticed his repeated quad after going thru the scoresheet right down to the last LP skater.
Vincent will be another GOE casualty unless he fixes his UR issues. Kolyada need to fix his falls from 4Lutz, if not, change to 4T or 4S.

The other skaters with 2 quads AND weak in 3A, they now motivated/under pressure to learn a 3rd type of quad. Or lose out to younger skaters who can already do 3 types of quads right off the block.

 

[Izabela]

Deniss beat Kazuki with a combination of GOEs and PCS. Kazuki starts off with a 9.5 point advantage in BV, but Deniss had a little over a 4 point advantage in PCS, so Deniss only had to make up a 5.5 point deficit to against Kazuki on GOEs. Deniss had a little over 6 points worth of GOE points over Kazuki, enough to edge him out. Kazuki's negative GOE on his quad combo really hurt him, but Deniss also had higher GOEs in almost all elements. (Also, I found another small error with how StSq3 GOEs were being calculated, so Kazuki's score is now 167.27--lol, this is hard. Doesn't affect the analysis though.)

I ran my own calculation by refactoring the GOE by 5/3 and dropping the 3S from Tomono's layout and the 3T from Deniss:

Kazuki Tomono - 166.21
Deniss Vasiljevs - 167.11

Even though we came up with different numbers, the difference is still more or less the same. And yeah, Deniss received more +2 and +3 GOEs which tremendously affected his TES. Tomono only received +3.68 from the refactored GOE whereas Deniss received a +6.37 GOE on his. And with a layout that only has a 2A+2T as a combo for bonus point! I'm not sure if this is a right calculation, but those with 3-4 Quads really have to either backload their combos to retain their gap or they can be beatable (with mistakes) by someone with quality triple jumps who skated clean (theoretically). Which is so in line with their intention by introducing this new SOV. I have to commend the ISU for coming up with this new scoring system (regardless of whether I personally like it or not). More reason for feds to have better control on the GOE and PCS distribution. ??

 

[Old Cat Lady]

You're underestimating Kolyada. He has the skating skills, and the presentation ability, and his jumps when hit are as good as Jin's and Hanyu's (great height, and fully rotated in the air with time before settling down. Jin and Hanyu get better length, though, and do also fully rotate their jumps when they hit them.) His main problem is consistency, and lack of variety in quads -- with the 4Lz he can do at most three clean ones in the LP. I don't like his programs, but he gets the PCS for them anyway. He is a wild card, but then so is Chen.

I admit I don't follow Kolyada that closely since I really don't like his program but I do like his skating and thought he absolutely deserved the 2nd place SP at worlds. I'm guessing you think a clean Kolyada beats a clean Uno? I do think Uno is fantastic outside of his jumps and it's not like he always lands shakily - I guess it depends on how much the judges decide to hit him for his take offs.

I just realized that the GOE guidelines I have don't actually say "no negative features" anywhere. Must have just read that on a forum. I suppose the logic is that if you're getting reductions then there's no way you can have the max score but that didn't seem to hold true under the old system.

Noticed that there's an additional feature to the layback if you go straight from layback to Biellman - is this an especially hard transition? wonder why that spin gets special treatment and if that's why Hanyu is working on the layback.

I also just remembered that Hanyu was jumping quad loop in Olympic practice. And here I am talking about "if" he gets that quad loop back

 

[WineHerUp]

It's easy to overlook just how talented Kolyada truly is because he's been a hot mess all season and his programs were unbearable, but in terms of PCS he really deserves to be in the same tier as Hanyu, Uno, Fernandez, and Chan.

 

[chopinskate]

I'm guessing you think a clean Kolyada beats a clean Uno?

No, at their best, Uno beats Kolyada. EDIT: Though I could say that, given his programs, I just don't know what Kolyada at his best even is.

I don't think either of them had great programs this season, but then no one did except Chen, and we all know what he did to them.

 

[eaglehelang]

I also just remembered that Hanyu was jumping quad loop in Olympic practice. And here I am talking about "if" he gets that quad loop back

Many of us are thinking that cos Yuzuru has repeatedly said the loop, lutz, flip causes pain in his foot so he hasnt done them yet.

Though there are reports Yuzuru has done 3 loop in the ice show today, in addition to his trademark 3A. So far only 4T is the only quad he has performed.

 

[draqq]

Wait, wait. I'm reading the proposal again and it says that no quad jump can be repeated.

"Of all triple jumps only two (2) can be executed twice. If at least one of these executions is in a Jump Combination/ Sequence, both executions are attributed their full numerical value according to the SOV. If both executions are as solo jumps, the second of these solo jumps will be attributed 70% of its numerical value according to the SOV. Any quadruple jump cannot be included more than once in a Free Program (as a Solo Jump or a part of a Jump Combination / Sequence)."

Now I'm confused. It used to say "Of all triple and quadruple jumps only (2) can be executed twice" but the "and quadruple" part was crossed out.

 

[yume]

Thanks for this. If we were to generalize from this data, it appears that the impact of the new SOV for those with 4-5 quads is a reduction of around ~10 in their overall scores factoring in the mistakes (if PCS remain the same). Whereas, with a relatively clean "triple" program, it will only reduce the scores to ~2 points. An 8 point difference as an advantage for a triple program and as a disadvantage for a 4-5 quad program is relatively big.

.

That sucks:disapp:
ISU loves progress so much.

 

[chopinskate]

That sucks:disapp:
ISU loves progress so much.

On the one hand, I agree.

But then similar to backloading, they were never going to fix their judging. So they went ahead and artificially limited the scores athletes can get (lower quad-based PCS boost). Obviously, they should just try more with the judges instead.

 

[xeyra]

Wait, wait. I'm reading the proposal again and it says that no quad jump can be repeated.

"Of all triple jumps only two (2) can be executed twice. If at least one of these executions is in a Jump Combination/ Sequence, both executions are attributed their full numerical value according to the SOV. If both executions are as solo jumps, the second of these solo jumps will be attributed 70% of its numerical value according to the SOV. Any quadruple jump cannot be included more than once in a Free Program (as a Solo Jump or a part of a Jump Combination / Sequence)."

Now I'm confused. It used to say "Of all triple and quadruple jumps only (2) can be executed twice" but the "and quadruple" part was crossed out.

They amended that proposal so that of the two jumps you can repeat (out of triples/quads), only one can be a quadruple jump. So whatever it is written in the Congress Agenda pdf is out of date on that particular rule, since they amended it during the congress.

 

[lavenderblossom]

Wait, wait. I'm reading the proposal again and it says that no quad jump can be repeated.

"Of all triple jumps only two (2) can be executed twice. If at least one of these executions is in a Jump Combination/ Sequence, both executions are attributed their full numerical value according to the SOV. If both executions are as solo jumps, the second of these solo jumps will be attributed 70% of its numerical value according to the SOV. Any quadruple jump cannot be included more than once in a Free Program (as a Solo Jump or a part of a Jump Combination / Sequence)."

Now I'm confused. It used to say "Of all triple and quadruple jumps only (2) can be executed twice" but the "and quadruple" part was crossed out.

If you watched the congress, Netherlands fed came forward with an amendment to the proposal, so the one from the initial agenda is not the one that got passed.

 

[yume]

On the one hand, I agree.

But then similar to backloading, they were never going to fix their judging. So they went ahead and artificially limited the scores athletes can get (lower quad-based PCS boost). Obviously, they should just try more with the judges instead.

Exactly. They should just fix their corrupted minds but no.
Now some skaters will have to work harder to still winning medals or have a good placements, while others will have just to do what they already do to be more close or win against those skaters.

 

[draqq]

They amended that proposal so that of the two jumps you can repeat (out of triples/quads), only one can be a quadruple jump. So whatever it is written in the Congress Agenda pdf is out of date on that particular rule, since they amended it during the congress.

If you watched the congress, Netherlands fed came forward with an amendment to the proposal, so the one from the initial agenda is not the one that got passed.

Ah, thank you both for the clarification!

 

[BillNeal]

Late to the party, but nice to see the original rule got amended and thanks to those that presented the calculations showing how it affects certain skaters, which in cases differs from some of the initial reactions of how this rule favours certain skaters. In regards to the judging, unfortunately it is easier (and faster) to change a system of numbers rather than the humans using it, with the variety of background factors and circumstances.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

This repetition rule clearly benefits all the other guys who don't have to change their layouts and hurts the guys with great diversity of quads.

Hoping this motivates someone like Chen or Uno to simply add in quads they can do but don't always throw in there (like Chen's 4L and Uno's 4S).

 

[narcissa]

Ok. But quints can be repeated twice??

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Ok. But quints can be repeated twice??

I guess? But they're not even in the SOV.

I suppose we can wait for a skater to announce their intentions to try a quint and then we can petition the ISU to come up with a value for them.

Although the ISU would probably make a quint worth 13 points just to troll us.

 

[xeyra]

Ok. But quints can be repeated twice??

I choked on my water.