Women's single skating at the ISU Grand Prix stages: statistics from 2021 to 2023

[Alex Fedorov]

Exactly a year ago, I created a topic in which I compared the success rate of certain elements (mainly triple jumps) at the stages of the Grand Prix series in 2021 and 2022. These statistics did not look good at the time. But, as everyone knows, the fall of 2022 was “post-Olympic,” and therefore the decrease in skill level could be explained by moral and physical fatigue.

This season there is no such excuse anymore, so I decided to check if the statistical indicators have improved. I used the same rules as a year ago - to recognize an element as unsuccessful, it is enough to fulfill at least one of the following conditions:

1) The GOE value is negative.

2) The judges reduced the basic value of the element.

3) The skater performed a simpler element instead of the planned one (for example, 2Lz instead of 3Lz).

To improve accuracy, I recalculated the statistics for 2021 and 2022, which corrected several errors. However, this practically did not change the final results.

So, the first table, which displays the statistics of solo triple jumps in 2021:

Table J2021

The numbers in brackets are the number of successful attempts to execute the elements, and “efficiency” is a conditional value, proportion of successfully completed jumps, expressed in percents.

A total of 42 athletes took part in six Grand Prix tournaments in 2021, of which 15 competed at one stage and the remaining 27 at two stages. All of these skaters performed 252 solo triple jumps. 164 of these attemts were successful. Thus, the average efficiency for these elements was 65.08%.

The 2021 competition differed from the two subsequent Grand Prix series in that it included 9 Russian figure skaters (six girls performed at two stages and three girls at one). Statistics on the performance of solo triple jumps by Russian figure skaters look like this:

Table J2021R

A total of 46 jumps were performed, of which 41 were successful. The average efficiency was 89.13%.

Statistics on the performance of solo triple jumps by figure skaters from all other countries:

Table J2021WR

A total of 206 jumps were performed, of which 123 were successful. The average efficiency was 59.71%.

[will be continued in the next post]

 

[Alex Fedorov]

In 2022, 45 skaters took part at six Grand Prix tournaments, of which 18 competed at one stage, and the remaining 27 at two stages. There were no Russian athletes among them anymore. Solo triple jump performance statistics in 2022 look like this:

Table J2022

A total of 289 solo triple jumps were performed, of which 148 were successful. The average efficiency was 51.21%.

As you can easily see, the main indicators in 2022 have decreased sharply. This is clearly visible both when comparing tables J2021 and J2022, and when comparing tables J2021WR and J2022. But, as I already noted, the fall of 2022 was “post-Olympic” - maybe this is the reason? Well, we need to look at the statistics for 2023:

Table J2023

In 2023, 43 skaters took part at six Grand Prix tournaments. 28 of them competed at two stages, 15 at one stage. A total of 288 solo triple jumps were performed, of which 146 were successful. The average efficiency was 50.69%.

It is worth paying attention to the following details:

1. There is almost no difference in the total number of jumps between 2022 and 2023. Average efficiency (without division by types of jumps) also differs little.

2. The efficiency of performance of 3Lz and 3F in 2023 has increased noticeably compared to 2022, but still has not reached the values achieved in 2021 (even if we do not take into account the jumps performed by Russian figure skaters).

3. The efficiency of performance of 3Lo and 3S for unknown reasons in 2023 was much lower than in 2022.

4. The number of the simplest elements (3S and 3T) in 2022 has increased significantly compared to 2021. This trend continued in 2023.

Separately, it is necessary to note the third stage of the Grand Prix in 2023 - it became the most successful for the skaters; the results of this tournament greatly improved the statistics for 3Lz, 3F and 3Lo. It is somewhat confusing that at this competition all 5 triple flips in the short program were performed with mistakes, and the very next day all 10 attempts to perform this jump were successful. It would seem that the probability of the mistake in a free program is higher than in a short program, but in this case the opposite happened.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Quite often you can hear the phrase: “Figure skating is not just about jumping.” And I agree with this. Figure skating is also a combination of jumps, namely cascades and sequences. The performance statistics for these elements are quite interesting. I'll start with 3+3 cascades.

Table C3+3-2021

Of course, the 2A+3T cascade cannot be considered a full-fledged 3+3 combination, but at the same time, it seemed unnecessary to me to make a separate table for it. In addition, the table does not contain information about the 3Lz+3Lo stage. This is not a mistake, I just knew in advance that in 2021 such a combination was performed only by Anna Shcherbakova. Of the three attempts to execute 3Lz+3Lo, two were successful. Taking into account these three cascades (but without 2A+3T), the total number of 3+3 combinations in 2021 was 99. 52 attempts were successful, and the average efficiency reached 52.53%.

Statistics on the performance of 3+3 cascades by Russian figure skaters were as follows:

Table C3+3-2021R

A total of 28 cascades were performed (include 3 cascades 3Lz+3Lo), of which 25 were successful. The average efficiency was 89.29%.

Statistics on the performance of 3+3 combinations by skaters not from Russia in 2021:

Table C3+3-2021WR

A total of 71 cascades were performed, of which 27 were successful. The efficiency was 38.02%.

Statistics on the results of 3+3 cascades in 2022 look somewhat paradoxical. These results require a separate comment, but for now I’ll just show the corresponding table:

Table C3+3-2022

There is also no information on the 3Lz+3Lo cascade. In 2022, the only performer of this element was Isabeau Levito, she made two attempts, one of which was successful. Taking into account these elements (and without 2A+3T), the total number of 3+3 cascades reached 87. The number of successful attempts was 42, and the average efficiency was 48.28%.

And finally, the statistical results of the execution of 3+3 cascades in 2023:

Table C3+3-2023

In 2023, the only attempt to perform the 3Lz+3Lo cascade was made by Japanese figure skater Yuna Aoki. Unfortunately, the attempt was unsuccessful. The total number of 3+3 cascades is 91. 41 attempts were successful, the average efficiency was 45.05%.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Now about the 3+2 cascades. General statistics for the execution of these elements in 2021 look like this:

Table C3+2-2021

The total number of 3+2 cascades was 55 (excluding the 2A+2T combination). The number of successful attempts is 41, and the average efficiency is 74.55%.

Statistics on the performance of 3+2 cascades by Russian figure skaters were as follows:

Table C3+2-2021R

A total of 8 cascades were performed, 6 of which were successful. The average efficiency was 75%.

Statistics on the performance of 3+2 combinations by skaters not from Russia in 2021:

Table C3+2-2021WR

A total of 47 cascades were performed, of which 35 were successful (excluding combinations 2A+2T). The efficiency was 74.47%.

A small note: the 3Lz+2T cascade performed by Anna Shcherbakova at the third stage of the 2021 Grand Prix was actually an unsuccessful attempt at 3Lz+3Lo and therefore this element was taken into account in the tables C3+3-2021 and C3+3-2021R.

Statistical results of the execution of 3+2 cascades in 2022:

Table C3+2-2022

The total number of 3+2 cascades was 70. The number of successful attempts was 39, and the average efficiency was 55.71%.

And finally, the statistical results of the execution of 3+2 cascades in 2023:

Table C3+2-2023

The total number of 3+2 cascades was 79 (excluding 2A+2T cascades). The number of successful attempts is 35, and the average efficiency is 44.30%.

In general, the number of 3+2 cascades is growing year by year, but the quality of execution of these elements is steadily decreasing.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Sequence statistics

I’ll say right away that the ISU’s decision to “equalize the rights” of cascades and sequences seems wrong to me. For example, performing the 3Lz+3Lo cascade is clearly more difficult than the 3Lz+2A+2A sequence. This is confirmed by the fact that only very few skaters are capable of performing 3Lz+3Lo. But according to current rules, the basic value of this element is 1.7 points less than 3Lz+2A+2A. However, all this could probably be discussed in some other topic. For now, it can be stated that the total number of sequences remains relatively small.

In 2021, different rules applied. Therefore, sequences were performed very rarely back then. There were 8 such attempts in total, 5 of which were successful. All these sequences consisted of two jumps.

In 2022, the situation has already changed. The statistics for the execution of sequences consisting of two jumps looks like this:

Table SEQ2022-2

A total of 30 sequences were performed, of which 21 were successful. The efficiency was 70%.

Only three sequences consisting of three jumps were performed in 2022: 3Lz2A2T+SEQ (successful), 3F2A2T+SEQ (successful) and 3T2A2Lo+SEQ (not successful).

For 2023, the statistics for the execution of sequences consisting of two jumps looks like this:

Table SEQ2023-2

A total of 24 sequences were performed, of which 12 were successful. The average efficiency was 50%.

The number of sequences consisting of three jumps increased to 10 in 2023. 6 such attempts were successful. This means that the average efficiency was 60%. The statistics look like this:

Table SEQ2023-3

It may still be premature to talk about any final conclusions about sequences (especially those that consist of three jumps). As is easy to see, Kaori Sakamoto, Loena Hendricks and many other famous figure skaters chose not to include such elements in their programs.

 

[Mathman]

Very interesting compilations.

 

[icewhite]

Very interesting compilations.

More like a propaganda piece.

 

[Mathman]

More like a propaganda piece.

Well, numbers are just numbers. What tickled me was this:

"Quite often you can hear the phrase: 'Figure skating is not just about jumping.' And I agree with this. Figure skating is also about combinations of jumps..."

I think that the reason the ISU does not award more points to combinations and sequences is that the skater already gets a big point-grab just by squeezing in an extra jump within the required number of passes. If a skater does, in two jumping passes, 3Lz+3Lo and then solo 3S, that is already well rewarded compared to the competior who does solo 3Lz and then solo 3Lo. There is no need to pile on even more points honoring the difficulty of the Lz/Lo combo.

 

[el henry]

Very impressive compilation of numbers. Such numbers are proof of absolutely nothing of course, but I appreciate the work that goes into gathering numbers.

I would love to see similar statistics for the equally important elements of

1. spins

2. choreo sequence

3. step sequence qua step sequences

And others, completely unrelated to jumps, that I am sure I am forgetting

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Very impressive compilation of numbers. Such numbers are proof of absolutely nothing of course, but I appreciate the work that goes into gathering numbers.

I would love to see similar statistics for the equally important elements of

1. spins

2. choreo sequence

3. step sequence qua step sequences

And others, completely unrelated to jumps, that I am sure I am forgetting

a year ago I did such calculations for some spins, as well as for a sequence of steps. But I'm not sure if it needs to be done this season. The fact is that the rules for performing spins have changed, and the judging of the step sequence has become somehow chaotic, there is no system in it. The same skaters are given either the second or the fourth level, and the reasons for this are unclear.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

If a skater does, in two jumping passes, 3Lz+3Lo and then solo 3S, that is already well rewarded compared to the competior who does solo 3Lz and then solo 3Lo. There is no need to pile on even more points honoring the difficulty of the Lz/Lo combo.

3Lz+3Lo has one very important additional advantage: a skater who is able to perform such an element gets the opportunity to insert three 3+3 cascades into the free program - two regular and one with Euler. And an additional 3+3 cascade can be even more profitable than 4S, for example. Anna Shcherbakova actively used this advantage (however, in the Olympic program she had to replace 3F+3T with 4F+3T). Isabeau Levito did not use of this advantage, and therefore 3Lz + 3Lo did not bring her much benefit.

 

[NanaPat]

"Quite often you can hear the phrase: 'Figure skating is not just about jumping.' And I agree with this. Figure skating is also about combinations of jumps..."

This stood out for me as well! It's not all about jumping... it also includes JUMPING!

 

[Jontor]

Very impressive compilation of numbers. Such numbers are proof of absolutely nothing of course, but I appreciate the work that goes into gathering numbers.

I would love to see similar statistics for the equally important elements of

1. spins

2. choreo sequence

3. step sequence qua step sequences

And others, completely unrelated to jumps, that I am sure I am forgetting

They are indeed important elements, but they are not equally important.
We can take Sakamoto, the GPF winner. Her BV in the free program is 73% jumps, and in the short 61% jumps.

Some people seem to want figure skating to NOT be about the jumps...but it is. It has always been that way, even in the 6.0 era.

 

[el henry]

They are indeed important elements, but they are not equally important.
We can take Sakamoto, the GPF winner. Her BV in the free program is 73% jumps, and in the short 61% jumps.

Some people seem to want figure skating to NOT be about the jumps...but it is. It has always been that way, even in the 6.0 era.

I have never said I don't want jumps in figure skating. I love what Dick Button called the tricks.

But I don't love the tricks to the exclusion of everything else and they are certainly not the most important element ever in the history of figure skating, to the exclusion of everything else. Nope, not true.

Certainly not to the point of extensive number crunching on jumps, and only jumps, demonstrating "something" other than very impressive number crunching.

 

[Mathman]

They (spins, steps, blade skills) are indeed important elements, but they are not equally important (to jumps).

Jumps score the most points. But are they the most important elements of figiure skating? I guess it depends on what we mean by "important."

Maybe we should compromise by saying instead, "jumps are cool but other aspects of skating are even cooler."

 

[Mathman]

But I don't love (jumps) to the exclusion of everything else and they are certainly the most important element ever in the history of figure skating...

Historically speaking there was once something called figures. Historically speaking Sonja Henie was the most entertaining audience draw of all time. Blade control and show- biz.

 

[Rebecca Moose]

Quite often you can hear the phrase: “Figure skating is not just about jumping.” And I agree with this. Figure skating is also a combination of jumps, namely cascades and sequences.

thank you, this is the best laugh I've had all week!

obviously jumps are important, always have been, but I miss the days when we were judging a complete program, not just a series of technical checklists. but whatever.

wrt to the current womens field, I'd like to see more creative jump layouts. too many skaters are attempting 3-3s that are not consistent or rotated. I want to see rotated jumps with good technique. obligatory shoutout to my girl Ava Marie Ziegler, who I think has the smartest LP jump layout I've seen all season:

3Lz+2A+2A
3F+2T
3Lo+2T
3S
3Lz
3F
3T

better base value here than many skaters trying 3-3 in the LP!

 

[Miller]

Exactly a year ago...

Thankyou for the statistics/analysis.

My takeaways...

The number of +2A sequences has increased dramatically now that it's 100% of the base value rather than 80%. This may explain the increased number of solo 3S and 3T jumps as skaters may not be doing two -3T combinations, or a -3T and a -1Eu-3S one, anymore. Instead they're doing a -3T and a +2A sequence which allows them to do their maximum of 7 non 3A triples and two 2As in an easier manner, so one of the -3S or -3T combination jumps becomes a solo one. I agree with Rebecca Moose just above who says that Ava Marie Ziegler has the best jump layout going to exploit what seems the relative ease of doing +2A sequences. 2 goes at a 3Lz and if you land one do 2As after it, then your other combinations are both -2Ts which must be relatively easy for skaters at this level. I would be interested to know if the number of -1Eu-3S combinations has dropped away dramatically as skaters find easier ways of doing the same technical content in terms of Base Value - it certainly feels that way.

The increased number of -3T attempts for non-Russians does seem somewhat counter-intuitive bearing in mind the above. However you need to remember there's now 12 non-Russians at each GP rather than the 9 or 10 of before. This probably also explains the number of -2T combinations. This will be because the skaters replacing the Russians will not be as strong, and so more -2T jumps are to be expected.

Finally I'd say the increase to 100% for +2A sequences has gone too far. They've become for too ubiquitous IMO, plus the number of 'real' 3-3 combinations has reduced (taking account of my comments about more non-Russians competing on the GP). It is somewhat cool however to see +3As in the Men's though. Overall I'd say 90% is about right, more incentive to do them, more variety in programs, plus more of the old jump combinations should re-appear.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

Statistics on the execution of the sequence of steps in 2021-2023:

Table STSQ2021-2023

This table shows for each of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 Grand Prix stages the number of step sequences that have been assigned difficulty levels 1, 2, 3 and 4 by the judges. Average is Average difficulty.

EffSt – is a conditional value, proportion of step sequences with a 4-th level of difficulty expressed in percents.

As you can see, the average difficulty level of step sequences has dropped fairly steadily over the years. But I'm not sure that this can be interpreted as a smooth decline in the level of skill. As I already noted, judging of the sequence of steps looks chaotic and unsystematic. At Skate America this year, out of 24 attempts, 19 received level 4 difficulty. Even those skaters who failed the rest of the program were highly rated. And at the 4th stage, on the contrary, the judges staged some kind of inquisition for the athletes. This reduces the value of any statistics.

 

[Mathman]

Overall I'd say 90% is about right, more incentive to do them, more variety in programs, plus more of the old jump combinations should re-appear.

I actually like the 100%. It is compatible with the whole philosophy of the IJS, which says: you get 3.30 base valuie points for doing a double Axel. Period. If you do a solo double Axel you get 3.30 points. If you do 2A+3T you get 3.30 points for the 2A. If you do 3Lz+2A+2A you get 3.30 points for the first 2A and 3.30 points for the second.

True, some double Axels are more difficult than others. A solo 2A with intricate preceding steps is more difficult than a solo 2A without intricate preceding steps. This is rewarded elsewhere (GOE, Composition, Skating Skills), but the base value is still that good old 3.30.

As for the Russian Ladies effect, it's just common sense. If you take away the best jumpers then who is left are the second-best jumpers. Maybe one day we will decide to beat our swords into plowshares and our spears inbto pruning hooks so that sporting events can return to bornal.