2016 Four Continents Ladies Free Skate

[Sam-Skwantch]

What's wrong with Mirai's music? The only thing I noticed in this performance was that she was late in getting into the Charleston.

I make fun of Mirai's FS and believe me when I say I don't get the weird changes or even the structure and concept going on but I'd be lying if I didn't say I like it. I even look forward to it. : It's just so different and I think in her head it makes perfect sense. I can support that. I don't think it's giving her the opportunity to show us the best she has to offer though. Maybe I'm wrong considering the results and all.

 

[eta]

It's just 4CC, the field wasn't very deep due to all the WD's, and nearly all the skaters had sub-par performances. The silver medalist didn't even qualify for Worlds.

Miyahara doesn't even have a 3-3 combo. She wouldn't finish in the top 5 at Russian Nats.

Of course she wouldn't, since her being Japanese won't give her crazy inflations. Last GPF and Worlds speak for themselves.

 

[artsciboy]

It's just 4CC, the field wasn't very deep due to all the WD's, and nearly all the skaters had sub-par performances. The silver medalist didn't even qualify for Worlds.

Miyahara doesn't even have a 3-3 combo. She wouldn't finish in the top 5 at Russian Nats.

In fairness to Satoko, her BV in the FS was higher than Evgenia's at Euro's - 62.96 versus 62.33. Doesn't matter that Satoko isn't doing the 3-3 in the FS, she's still doing 7 triples and 2 axels, just using different combinations to do so.

I have to say, I've been very impressed by 4CC the last couple of years - the quality of the skates overall (even with withdrawals) was FAR superior to what happened at Euros, where beyond the top 2 everyone was a hot mess. And its been that way for some time now. That the 4CC silver medalist isn't going to Worlds and the US National Champion only finished 5th, speaks more to the depth of the field at 4CC as opposed to the lack of depth. Satoko's win was impressive to me as was the number of 3-3's (and 2axel-3toes) cleanly landed.

Even with withdrawals, its safe to say that 4CC is no longer considered a "B" event!

 

[andromache]

In fairness to Satoko, her BV in the FS was higher than Evgenia's at Euro's - 62.96 versus 62.33. Doesn't matter that Satoko isn't doing the 3-3 in the FS, she's still doing 7 triples and 2 axels, just using different combinations to do so.

I have to say, I've been very impressed by 4CC the last couple of years - the quality of the skates overall (even with withdrawals) was FAR superior to what happened at Euros, where beyond the top 2 everyone was a hot mess. And its been that way for some time now. That the 4CC silver medalist isn't going to Worlds and the US National Champion only finished 5th, speaks more to the depth of the field at 4CC as opposed to the lack of depth. Satoko's win was impressive to me as was the number of 3-3's (and 2axel-3toes) cleanly landed.

Even with withdrawals, its safe to say that 4CC is no longer considered a "B" event!

I don't fault Satoko for the 2A-3T strategy she uses in the LP, but I do fault the system for allowing it to be a good strategy. Just goes to show that something needs to be done to reward combos. 3Lz-3T, 2A, should IMO OBVIOUSLY be worth more than 2A-3T, 3Lz.

 

[sabinfire]

Even with withdrawals, its safe to say that 4CC is no longer considered a "B" event!

Nope, I've seen regular Grand Prix stops this season that had more interesting ladies events than 4CC, even some JGPF events were more exciting TBH. Wouldn't be surprised if a senior B surpassed 4CC too, but I'd have to go back and jog my memory. Unfortunately, events like these tend to be forgettable after a few weeks have passed and a more important event begins.

 

[Dan]

You don't get any more points by doing 3Lz+3T, solo 3Lz, 3F+3T than be doing 3Lz+3T, 3Lz+3T, solo 3F. Even though you get a lot of points by doing your highest-scoring combo twice, you have to give them back later.

Thank you for explaining. I have always wanted to determine the maximum TES base value for a ladies long program without a quad or triple axel. However, I start to do the math and my head explodes. Your screen name suggests that you have some math skills. Would you like to apply them to help me answer this question? Where I get lost is maximizing the base value from the jumps.

The ladies do 12 elements in their free skate which consist of 7 jumping passes, 3 spins and 2 sequences. This spins and sequence part of this seems easy as I can't find in the scale of values table a spin higher than 3.5 base value or sequence higher than 3.9 base value. To me that means the maximum base value of these five elements is (3 * 3.5) + (2 * 3.9) = 10.5 + 7.8 = 18.3

Now where I get stuck is in the 7 jumping passes. It seems these 7 jumping passes equate to 11 jumps per program. These come from seven jumping passes where two of these seven passes have two jumps in them and one pass has three jumps. Thus, (4 * 1 jump) + (2 * 2 jump combination) + (1 * 3 jump combination) = 4 + 4 + 3 = 11. Is this correct for the Zayak rule? If so, then let's make some assumptions about where most of the ladies are today to simplify things. Let's assume that even though some of the ladies are attempting quads and triple axels, most are not so we won't consider these jumps in this calculation. Also, let's assume that the second or third jumps of a combination can only be loops and toes since that is what most of the ladies attempt. With these assumptions, what combination of the six types of jumps (axel, toe, loop, salchow, flip, lutz) can you arrange into seven jumping passes and eleven jump attempts while following Zayak to give the highest possible base value for the jumping portion of the TES? I could just play with combinations but seems like a mathematician would have a better way than trial and error.

Now, my favorite question for you...Does more than one mix of jumps give you this highest base value?

This question may better be asked in another forum on this page so I will post it there as well.

 

[slider11]

I make fun of Mirai's FS and believe me when I say I don't get the weird changes or even the structure and concept going on but I'd be lying if I didn't say I like it. I even look forward to it. : It's just so different and I think in her head it makes perfect sense. I can support that. I don't think it's giving her the opportunity to show us the best she has to offer though. Maybe I'm wrong considering the results and all.

I LOVE Mirai but that Gatsby number is strange. Bad music cuts and hard to express unless you get the whole gatsby thing. I applaud Mirai for pulling out two solid performances. Her Demons SD is great! Next year, I'd like it if Tom Z picked 3 or 4 pieces of music and let Mirai pick what she likes. Or maybe have Adam Rippon (who choreographed for her in the past) help her select music that she can relate to and express. Mirai goes from this expressionless/robot look to a big smile= time to smile. Maybe acting classes? Even at the medal ceremony, she often has this serious/aloof look until she's prompted to smile. Don't get me wrong - I LOVE her skating - I just want to see her get those PCs up. She can be a contender!

 

[Jammers]

In fairness to Satoko, her BV in the FS was higher than Evgenia's at Euro's - 62.96 versus 62.33. Doesn't matter that Satoko isn't doing the 3-3 in the FS, she's still doing 7 triples and 2 axels, just using different combinations to do so.

I have to say, I've been very impressed by 4CC the last couple of years - the quality of the skates overall (even with withdrawals) was FAR superior to what happened at Euros, where beyond the top 2 everyone was a hot mess. And its been that way for some time now. That the 4CC silver medalist isn't going to Worlds and the US National Champion only finished 5th, speaks more to the depth of the field at 4CC as opposed to the lack of depth. Satoko's win was impressive to me as was the number of 3-3's (and 2axel-3toes) cleanly landed.

Even with withdrawals, its safe to say that 4CC is no longer considered a "B" event!

Actually except for Satoko and Mirai the rest of the top Ladies didn't do that great either. Gracie was terrible and that's why she finished 5th not because of great skates from the other girls. Gracie moved up 4 spots with her worse LP score of the season by far.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It's just 4CC, the field wasn't very deep due to all the WD's, and nearly all the skaters had sub-par performances. The silver medalist didn't even qualify for Worlds.

Miyahara doesn't even have a 3-3 combo. She wouldn't finish in the top 5 at Russian Nats.

Oh, right... Because there's never been a Russian with tiny jumps (*cough*Lip) to have been a top contender at Russian Nats.

She skated clean with a 3-3 in her SP and 7 triples in her FS. She would easily place top 5 at Russian Nats and most likely medal with a performance like this.

I hate when people say crap about it being a weak event and trivializing great performances as the best of a weak field.

 

[Mathman]

...I have always wanted to determine the maximum TES base value for a ladies long program without a quad or triple axel….

I am embarrassed to say that I have never figured out any other way than just trial and error to figure this out. The Zayak rules have the effect that you run out of legal jumps before you run out of jumping passes. Any way you do it, if you want the exact mathematical maximum, you have to throw in a double Lutz somewhere.

Can anyone beat this?

3Lz + 3T = 10.3
3 Lz = 6.0
3F + 3Lo = 10.4
3F = 5.3
2A + half loop + 3S = 8.4
2A = 3.3
2Lz = 2.1

Total (excluding second half bonus) = 45.8

 

[sabinfire]

Oh, right... Because there's never been a Russian with tiny jumps (*cough*Lip) to have been a top contender at Russian Nats.

She skated clean with a 3-3 in her SP and 7 triples in her FS. She would easily place top 5 at Russian Nats and most likely medal with a performance like this.

Sorry, you may want to check your facts. Lipnitskaya placed a few spots outside of the top 5 at Russian Nats this season, and she didn't have a 3-3.

 

[frida80]

I am embarrassed to say that I have never figured out any other way than just trial and error to figure this out. The Zayak rules have the effect that you run out of legal jumps before you run out of jumping passes. Any way you do it, if you want the exact mathematical maximum, you have to throw in a double Lutz somewhere.

Can anyone beat this?

3Lz + 3T = 10.3
3 Lz = 6.0
3F + 3Lo = 10.4
3F = 5.3
2A + half loop + 3S = 8.4
2A = 3.3
2Lz = 2.1

Total (excluding second half bonus) = 45.8

I have 46.1 if you replace the 2a+1/2L+3S with a 2A+2T+2L and a single 3S.

 

[sabinfire]

I hate when people say crap about it being a weak event and trivializing great performances as the best of a weak field.

Also, it wasn't that great.

 

[jenaj]

What's wrong with Mirai's music? The only thing I noticed in this performance was that she was late in getting into the Charleston.

I know. I was worried she wouldn't finish on time but she must have sped up through her footwork.

 

[jenaj]

Congratulations to all. I especially like when a skater gets excited by their placement even when they aren't on the podium (So Yun Park). Would someone please explain to me how Miyahara was able to repeat the 2A+3T? How is this not a repeated jump under the Zayak rule? How can this combination be repeated but a 3Lz+3T cannot? Interestingly, these two combination jumps looked identical to me and the judges thought so too, giving her identical GOE for both combinations. I would love to interview two judges that failed to give her identical GOE to find out what differences they saw. I can't find any.

I can't explain it for certain, but I think the double axel is not subject to the Zayak rule. It can be repeated, even if not in combination. Akiko Suzuki used to use a similar jump layout. It is a way to do 7 triples without a 3-3 combination. Satoko, by the way, can do a 3-3. She does one in the short program.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Mira has made changes to her jump technique and stuck with them, and it shows. Jump set-ups, arm positions through take off and in air. Her urs seem to be in the rear view mirror.

By rear view mirror you mean something that is always still in view, right? Because her 3Toe combinations are still cheated.

 

[sabinfire]

By rear view mirror you mean something that is always still in view, right? Because her 3Toe combinations are still cheated.

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

 

[jenaj]

It's just 4CC, the field wasn't very deep due to all the WD's, and nearly all the skaters had sub-par performances. The silver medalist didn't even qualify for Worlds.

Miyahara doesn't even have a 3-3 combo. She wouldn't finish in the top 5 at Russian Nats.

Actually, the field was pretty deep. Gracie, Satoko and Alaine Chartrand are all current national champions. Satoko is the reigning World silver medalist. Gracie, Mirai and Katelyn Osmond have all competed at the Olympics. Satoko beat Radionova at Worlds last year, so it would certainly be possible for her to finish above her at Russian Nationals. Satoko is also way more consistent that Anna Pogo and could beat her any given day, too. She also has a 3-3; she just doesn't do it in her long program because she can get the same points with the jump layout she uses.

 

[chuckm]

No problem...Alaine will just have to do it the old fashion way, and earn it! Just like Kaetlyn earned her way back to the top 6 today, in what some on here have suggested, may have been a medal had judges not underscored her PCS in both programs. Getting nervous again, Chuckie?

Kaetlyn skated well in the FS today, but her SP wasn't good, with a turnout on the combo, an edge call on the lutz, and a fall on the single axel. She got high 6's in PCS when many skaters in that group had PCS in the 5s. It's nearly impossible to be a medal contender when you're 11th after the SP. And Kaetlyn got the 5th highest PCS score in the FS---I think her PCS should have been higher than Hongo's, who IMO was overscored.

Kaetlyn will get higher PCS scores when she has more exposure before ISU judges and she can show more consistent performance.

I don't know what you mean about my being nervous? It was Alaine who was showing the nerves today. All the old bad habits were back: double-footing, step-outs, URs. I have read so many comments about how much she had improved over last year, when she was 10th at 4CC. Last year, she had her peak performance at CoR. Maybe this year it was at Nationals??

 

[sabinfire]

Actually, the field was pretty deep. Gracie, Satoko and Alaine Chartrand are all current national champions.

Chartrand performed extremely poorly all season. When I attended Skate America, she finished dead last. Not even close to a medal in any of her events this season until Canadian Nationals -- and ladies is by far the weakest discipline in Canada. None of them are in contention for a medal internationally. Not a deep field by any stretch of the imagination.