ISU VP Lakernik: № of quads may be limited

[nekun]

Ohh I hope Yuzu's 4L and 4Lz will be back from the war soon than...

 

[eaglehelang]

As others have said, wouldnt limiting it to 1 quad attempt per type cause more skaters to try all the different quads. Thus having more splatfests ? Even though there's more deductions, value is still higher than a triple

Why dont they just straight out limit the number of quads for LP to 4 or 5?

 

[Seren]

I haven't read enough to have a solid opinion about some of these rule changes but I do like changing the GOE to +/-5. A beautiful quad should be rewarded, but a two-footed fall on a quad shouldn't get more points than a clean triple.

 

[asiacheetah]

The limitation may hurt Nathan since his schtick is the number of quads, but it won't hurt Hanyu since his schtick is quality of jumps. It may actually help Hanyu because it will be easier for him to go clean due to lower number of quads and at the same time handicap his rivals.

But if they do go through with it and limit the number of quads, there's hope skaters such as Nathan and Vincent will be actually able to arrange to have a program in between those quads. That would be a win for me.

THIS!

I'm sorry Nathan's 6 quad program in real time looks exactly as described, run up, jump, run to the other end, jump. I WANT them to have a better program with artistry and connections so I can ENJOY it more. Maybe it's a selfish wish, but it's not super exciting when I see a quad because you only know it's a quad by commentators or the score box. It just looks like a jump (most times a badly executed jump) when seeing it live or without commentary.

This is the first I've heard of limiting quads to only 1 kind each. It seemingly favors multi-quadsters like Nathan and Shoma. I would have more hope for the +5 GOE for quality of quads if the judges weren't already ignoring their own guidelines and handing out +2 +3 on quads that don't check off more than 1 or 2 of the jump quality guidelines. I fear they'll just abuse it and give it out like candy like they have been these past years.

Are they really not reducing required element in Pairs while also reducing the time? I had heard they were reducing 1 jumping pass and maybe eliminating the Choreo Sequence to allow Men the time to execute the 4 minute program. RIP Yuzuru's 3 Flip and epic Hydroblade/Ina Bauer.

 

[century2009]

I thought the idea of the new scoring system was to minimize abuse because the +/- 5 GOE feels like it really can be abused by the judges. It can cause a lot of controversy.

The quad has really expanded figure skating to a new level, which is great for the sport. Yeah, the limit to 1 type quad is pushing the sport back given how almost all skaters, expect Nathan, cannot do all the quads. Isnt it a good thing that skaters are pushing the boundaries? Cant we let them choice the layout among their arsenals? Isnt that the point of the Free Skate to let them choice what they want? It feels like we are limiting the skaters.

For example, Mikhail has difficulty with the 4Lz and I expect him to fall almost all the time (it really isnt his friend). Shoma also cant do the 4Lz, and Hanyu given his major injury, he wont be doing it as well (probably a good idea given how he hasnt healed since the start of the season).

The quad is something great for the sport and they should embrace it as it has taken figure skating to another level

 

[Metis]

As others have said, wouldnt limiting it to 1 quad attempt per type cause more skaters to try all the different quads. Thus having more splatfests ? Even though there's more deductions, value is still higher than a triple

Yes with an if, no with a but. This is where I think it helps to imagine what the consequences of such a rule change would be as a bipolar distribution, not a bell curve.

In one group: skaters with solid triples (3A required) but 0-1 quads. This would include people such as Kazuki Tomono, Matteo Rizzo, Mikhail Brezina, Mikhail Kolyada (realistically), Dennis V., etc. Under current rules, all of these men are better off falling and even URing a quad than doing a perfect triple, and anyone without a quad is out of contention due to their TES simply being too low. Because ISU has refused to change PCS factouring, even if a skater were to theoretically hit absolute max in PCS, it wouldn’t keep pace with current competitive TES. Right now, TES is running ahead of PCS by about ~15% minimum in the short, more like 25%+ in the free for the top men. In TSS, that means TES is worth about 7% more than PCS; the two scores are not remotely even. These are the guys who can deliver a clean performance and never close the gap in components, because components simply aren’t capable of keeping up with TES, so it’s either “get quads or go home” or “not realistically in medal contention.” (And this is before issues with PCS scoring come in, but let’s bracket that for now.)

Why does this group benefit? They don’t necessarily win much from the quad rep rule (as it lowers their TES with the inability to repeat a quad); however, they won huge with GOE tipping points and could theoretically be competitive if well-executed triples are rewarded accordingly and can overtake bad quads. I also only noted skaters with solid 3As and noted “consistent triples,” as that’s also key here: these are the guys who may now be competitive rather than skaters who do bad quads (URs, falls, step outs, etc.), as the BV for simply executing the rotations is no longer there (BVs are expected to be lower by 30-40% to shift points into GOEs, and quads are expected to take a 10% BV cut regardless). The one quad guys technically lose under the rep proposal, but they’re also benefiting overall (potentially), so I’d put them on one side of the distribution.

In the second group, and this is where things get really “fun”: anyone with two or more consistent quads, or “current top men.” I would be very, very careful in selecting for this group — Zhou has UR issues and relies on repeating the 4F in the free, so this is not, in my opinion, actually good news for him. Chen would seem the most obvious beneficiary but his old gameplan is gone; he cannot rely on securing a lead off BV alone regardless of his competitors’ TES, as the math, as we understand expected BVs, no longer works: there aren’t enough points in BV alone to make a bulletproof lead. (He will still have the highest BV layouts if he chooses to go with quad-heavy ones, but his scoring “floor” for a clean skate will be lower and the point gap between Chen and others is not going to be as extreme.) He will also have the most risk and most potential reward: as long as quads remain the highest element in terms of BV, they will remain dominant and skaters will chase after them; moreover, at +5 GOE, even with reduced BV, that’s more points than possible now. On the other hand, falls have the potential to erase 40% of BV (based on ISU’s own slides), which is where the risk-reward game makes everything volatile (step outs were at -30% BV at one point, no clue what will happen). Does Chen have a starting advantage under this proposal? Undeniably yes. Is that advantage theoretical or actual? Would need to see his GOEs. Because once we’re talking about the competitive men, it’s not BV that’s as relevant, but TES.

(Chen is looking stronger on the 3A since changing technique, which is good, but he definitely can’t afford any falls there now — -40% BV is brutal. Anyone without a consistent 3A is going to have problems in the new system.)

Others who have at least two stable quads and are worth mentioning quickly: Boyang (his 4Lz, if given appropriate GOEs under the new system, is a potential TES monster; I would not sleep on him); Shoma (no clue what will happen to his TES); and Hanyu, who’s basically Chen’s foil in terms of BV versus TES. Let’s assume Hanyu doesn’t go back to the 4Lz, which leaves him with three quads (4T, 4S, 4Lo)... all three of them are GOE monsters. Then there’s the 3A. That’s five of seven jumping passes in the free. Two triples with high GOE (+4/+5) and you have a lower risk programme (though I doubt Hanyu will like that), less likelihood of significant error/falls, and seven chances for huge reward. If Chen is getting, say, +3 GOEs on every jump — which are extremely good in the new system, just no longer max — I think Hanyu has the edge in TES based on what we know at the moment.

You can change the BVs of all jumps to 1/2/3/4 by revolution and make the axel 3.3, then play around with adding and subtracting 10% BV per GOE level. You can add the current SoV factoring for even more fun. Apply the -40% BV error to see what happens if a performance isn’t clean. It’s nutty. So take everything with a Dead Sea’s worth of salt until we actually have the new SoV and GOE criteria. It’s supposed to be one bullet per level but all we can say for certain is that it’s an 11-point scale. The overall direction ISU is heading is clear from the rumoured changes and now Lakernik’s remarks, but we still need some very important puzzle pieces. And then there’s theory and application.

Also, group three, or the most heavily disadvantaged: those without solid 3As and triples, period. The reduction in BV for falls makes an inconsistent 3A especially brutal. If the system now rewards skaters with too many points for rotating a jump even with significant errors (falls) or lack of quality (transitions, height, flow out), then the new system seems to be saying that an element has little value as a concept; it’s the execution of it that earns points. Whether or not that remains true in practice... who knows? Lakernik also said one of Trusova’s quads would be worth a +4 or +5 GOE, if I recall correctly.

I think the potential for extreme volatility is maybe the most under-appreciated element. The rink monster is not playing games any longer; he is here to slay base values like Crazy Eddie lowering prices.

 

[LucyH]

THIS!

I'm sorry Nathan's 6 quad program in real time looks exactly as described, run up, jump, run to the other end, jump. I WANT them to have a better program with artistry and connections so I can ENJOY it more. Maybe it's a selfish wish, but it's not super exciting when I see a quad because you only know it's a quad by commentators or the score box. It just looks like a jump (most times a badly executed jump) when seeing it live or without commentary.

This is the first I've heard of limiting quads to only 1 kind each. It seemingly favors multi-quadsters like Nathan and Shoma. I would have more hope for the +5 GOE for quality of quads if the judges weren't already ignoring their own guidelines and handing out +2 +3 on quads that don't check off more than 1 or 2 of the jump quality guidelines. I fear they'll just abuse it and give it out like candy like they have been these past years.

Are they really not reducing required element in Pairs while also reducing the time? I had heard they were reducing 1 jumping pass and maybe eliminating the Choreo Sequence to allow Men the time to execute the 4 minute program. RIP Yuzuru's 3 Flip and epic Hydroblade/Ina Bauer.

Yes I want to see a balanced program with proper transitions and meaningful choreography and intricate step sequences between the quads!!! is that too much to ask?! I think the new rules if applied properly (that's a BIG IF judging from this years' worlds' scoring nonsense!) will favour the skaters that have at least 2 stable quads and all the good "in between" stuff" that makes FS great to watch! There is a great video (with ENG subs) on dailymotion of the Italian commentators explaining the scoring rules when applied PROPERLY for the Olympic SP's! I say this is must viewing for all judges

 

[moriel]

Overall, my thoughts:

-5 to +5 GOE: Bad, unless jusges are required to disclose which checkpoints each element hit. This change will only give more room for judges to support certain skaters, and sink others. Specially if this does not come with correct tech calls.

Higher punishment for falls: Bad. It is pretty harsh already, and will force skaters to avoid risks.

Men and Pairs will have shorter programs: Neutral. Fair enough i guess.

Changes of the second half bonus: Bad. Second half abuse is only a thing for ladies (men have quads to do in first half). Currently, it is the second half bonus that enables the sucess of skaters like Medvedeva and Zagitova, and it is what forces other ladies to learn 3A and quads. Also, ridiculous to do such change because there is like 2 skaters doing it.

1 quad of each type: Bad. Combos with quads will be rare as hell. With new GOE rules and harsher punishment for falls, skaters will not really be encouraged to do all 4 quads.

Overall, I see those rules as a step away from the sport. The GOE rule seems made on purpose to make shady scoring easier. It will also boost reputation scoring. Most of the other rules, in my oppinion, will lead FS to stagnate as sport.

 

[Globetrotter]

Erm... No, but I also don't think this is the way to enforce better programs. Quads require too much set-up, unless someone's really comfortable with them, so 7/8 quad programs aren't very good. I see their point, but the method, as usual, is terrible.

Agree. Nathan Chen may have the quads but his overall LPs at the OG and Worlds were empty. Unfortunately, judges are not inclined to properly deal with the PCS and there is just too much association of big tech with big PCS in men skating although it should be more a case of reward the tech and mark down the PCS if the programme was sacrificed for more quad set ups.

 

[Globetrotter]

Overall, my thoughts:

-5 to +5 GOE: Bad, unless jusges are required to disclose which checkpoints each element hit. This change will only give more room for judges to support certain skaters, and sink others. Specially if this does not come with correct tech calls.

Higher punishment for falls: Bad. It is pretty harsh already, and will force skaters to avoid risks.

Men and Pairs will have shorter programs: Neutral. Fair enough i guess.

Changes of the second half bonus: Bad. Second half abuse is only a thing for ladies (men have quads to do in first half). Currently, it is the second half bonus that enables the sucess of skaters like Medvedeva and Zagitova, and it is what forces other ladies to learn 3A and quads. Also, ridiculous to do such change because there is like 2 skaters doing it.

1 quad of each type: Bad. Combos with quads will be rare as hell. With new GOE rules and harsher punishment for falls, skaters will not really be encouraged to do all 4 quads.

Overall, I see those rules as a step away from the sport. The GOE rule seems made on purpose to make shady scoring easier. It will also boost reputation scoring. Most of the other rules, in my oppinion, will lead FS to stagnate as sport.

Have a very mixed view of this. I do in theory like the changes but again, 5e devil is in the implementation. Current judging leaves very little transparency of how the GOEs truly operate. I do however like the higher reductions in badly executed elements and falls. It does make sure that skaters either go big well or go home. There is an element of risk here which can be exciting to watch, like whether Nathan will go for a big quad Lutz to catch up with Yuzu in a do or die LP. Stick the landing, it’s a win, botch it and he goes home. That said, I hate the only one quad type ruling as it discourages interesting combos. Much as I don’t like Zagi’s all backloaded programme, I am not in favour of all these limiting rules. Instead the proper way to deal with this is for more realistic PCS judging - if a well spaced out programme is sacrificed for rushed elements, then it may be rewarded in BV but docked in components appropriately. That’s the risk vs benefit equation which all skaters have to contend with. It’s just like gymnasts going for the dangerous and difficult Pradunova vault but if they flop their landing, the execution component kills the BV of the attempt.

 

[moonkat]

Wow, these rule changes are not great for the reasons already discussed. Men will master the quads, and then what? Will the rules change then to accommodate that improvement, or will the sport stagnate?

 

[Colonel Green]

Changes of the second half bonus: Bad. Second half abuse is only a thing for ladies (men have quads to do in first half). Currently, it is the second half bonus that enables the sucess of skaters like Medvedeva and Zagitova, and it is what forces other ladies to learn 3A and quads. Also, ridiculous to do such change because there is like 2 skaters doing it.

No, it isn’t. Firstly, because there hasn't been any such movement amongst senior women; and second, the attempts to get some junior women doing quads, triple axels, etc. is driven by their being intrinsically valuable elements (as well as prestigious).

Also, I fail to see any connection between the 10% bonus and the success of Medvedeva. Her marriage of technical and artistic prowess would make her a star under any judging system.

While it's true that Zagitova is the only one doing the full-backloading at the moment, if the ISU doesn't want that to become a trend, then it makes plenty of sense to nip it in the bud (that was also the genesis of the Zayak rule, for instance). The 10% bonus was created to discourage full frontloading; tipping all the jumps into the second half just creates the opposite problem.

 

[Danny T]

I'm ambivalent about the 30 secs cut. It is similar in nature to the GOEs change - great if judged correctly, disastrous if not.

I mean, in theory it's great. I hate long stretch of crossovers into quads as much as anyone else, so forcing skaters to improve their entry is a great thing. But in reality, without adequate judging, I think the choreo & steps sequences are going to suffer instead. Take Nathan's LP for example (i'm sorry to keep bringing him up, but he is quite the golden boy for the wack judging), his choreo sequence consists of like, 1 spread eagle?? And it still has +GOE iirc. In fact, I think the judges mark some random transition as Wakaba's choreo sequence and gave the marks before her actual choreo sequence ._. So yeah, not having tons of faith that the judges can carry out the spirit of this proposal.

 

[Miller]

Going back to the pair conversation, how are they expecting pairs to do their long programs in 4 minutes with the current set of required elements? Are they planning to cut a lift or a spin (and have that element in the SP only)? Are they planning to simplify some elements? Have they thought this through or is this an issue that they will tackle later?

They're cutting out the Choreo Sequence part - don't know if this currently takes 30s though, how they might (the skaters that is) take a few more seconds from their routine I don't know.

Looking at the changes overall the biggest effect would be on those that repeat 1 quad and 2 quads.

Someone that repeats a quad and has to drop it would have to do a 3Lz in it's place (thereby having 2 3As and 3Lzs as their Zayak triples). They would lose 4.3/4.5 points if their repeated quad is currently a 4T or 4S.

If they repeat 2 quads the best they can do is replace them with a 3A and 3Lz, thereby yet again having 2 3As and 3Lzs as their repeat triples. They would lose 6.3 points if this were the case, more so if they're someone like Nathan Chen who repeats even higher value quads.

The multi-quad skater would also lose more as a result of going to 7 jumping passes, as their lowest value element will be typically something like a 3Lo/3F, whereas for a 0/1 quad skater it will be a 2A. The 0/1 or low number of different quads skater will be the gaining all the time.

Finally I'm not so sure skaters will try quads they are not comfortable with. This is where the lower BV and +/5 GOE comes in. In the case of Mikhail Kolyada he gets 8.6 points after the point deduction for his 'planned fall' 4Lz. With reduced BVs and 50% off for -5 GOE I expect he will get about 5 points after the point deduction.

I would therefore expect this would act as a reasonable incentive for skaters not to try quads that are 'jump and hope', and instead do lower value triples - Mikhail's 3Lz could get him up to 9 points on the new scoring system - see how well he did at Worlds by doing a 3Lz in his short program rather than the 4Lz. N.B. As far as I can see Short Programs won't be affected the changes at all, unless someone had serious plans for a 4T-4T which I would have thought is some way away.

 

[Sportfan]

I thought the idea of the new scoring system was to minimize abuse because the +/- 5 GOE feels like it really can be abused by the judges. It can cause a lot of controversy.

The quad has really expanded figure skating to a new level, which is great for the sport. Yeah, the limit to 1 type quad is pushing the sport back given how almost all skaters, expect Nathan, cannot do all the quads. Isnt it a good thing that skaters are pushing the boundaries? Cant we let them choice the layout among their arsenals? Isnt that the point of the Free Skate to let them choice what they want? It feels like we are limiting the skaters.

For example, Mikhail has difficulty with the 4Lz and I expect him to fall almost all the time (it really isnt his friend). Shoma also cant do the 4Lz, and Hanyu given his major injury, he wont be doing it as well (probably a good idea given how he hasnt healed since the start of the season).

The quad is something great for the sport and they should embrace it as it has taken figure skating to another level

Are you sure about this?

So many years there was nothing wrong with men's figure skating, having 1-3 quads and i still don't see the reason to change that "More" is not necessary "better". Many skaters are not able to land beautiful 3A's and "easier" quads like 4T and 4S , maybe they should focus on that, instead of having programs with shaky landings, multiple falls and some random arm movements that are called "artistry" these days, just bc some people forgot how figure skating used to look like and are blinded by 10000 quads

Worlds 2018 was the worst competition in men's history, for example the silver medalist came from 5th place to second with multiple falls and UR's, i'm sure this is going to make FS more popular :sarcasm:

 

[MajaHled]

No matter how much discussion on this goes by, I still don't see the point of limiting quad rep. Errors on quads are already going to be heavily punished by the new GOE, which should be enough to discourage skaters from doing quads for BV alone, if applied correctly (and that's a big if). If anything, it will bar skaters from repeating quads that are actually very good. And I doubt we'll be seeing many quad combos in the free anymore. I really can't figure out why it was even proposed. I thought the point of the rule change was to direct the evolution of the sport in a desired direction, not to make it stagnate.

 

[xeyra]

Interestingly, people should have had plenty of time to get used to the incoming -5/+5 GOE idea, since Lakernik already mentioned the plans for it back in 2015. Other decisions might be newer and the operacionalization might be undecided, but the changes in GOE aren't something we're only hearing about now. I guess it's just more real at the end of a quad than it was in the middle of one.

 

[TryMeLater]

Interestingly, people should have had plenty of time to get used to the incoming -5/+5 GOE idea, since Lakernik already mentioned the plans for it back in 2015. Other decisions might be newer and the operacionalization might be undecided, but the changes in GOE aren't something we're only hearing about now. I guess it's just more real at the end of a quad than it was in the middle of one.

More so, the GOE +5/-5 resolution was passed in 2016.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

[/B]

Are you sure about this?

So many years there was nothing wrong with men's figure skating, having 1-3 quads and i still don't see the reason to change that "More" is not necessary "better". Many skaters are not able to land beautiful 3A's and "easier" quads like 4T and 4S , maybe they should focus on that, instead of having programs with shaky landings, multiple falls and some random arm movements that are called "artistry" these days, just bc some people forgot how figure skating used to look like and are blinded by 10000 quads

Worlds 2018 was the worst competition in men's history, for example the silver medalist came from 5th place to second with multiple falls and UR's, i'm sure this is going to make FS more popular :sarcasm:

I guess people are fine with everything untill their favorite skater/nation win medals ot their nemesis skater/nation doesnt win. If people are more invested in whole competitions as shows made for general public to enjoy in it, they will maybe agree with you. I totally agree with Lakernik answer on the question - who will win the competition then? The one who skates clean. Of course that someone who jumped 4 types of quad clean will win against someone who jumped only 2 of them. But if any of them fall during that process, im fine with someone with only clean 3As to win. My view on the problem is based exactly on worlds 2018 competition. Did Nathan deserve to win and to be watched in a program in which he shown tech mastery? Absolutely yes. But does the whole game in which hes came as a winner is worth watching? Absolutely not.

 

[MajaHled]

I guess people are fine with everything untill their favorite skater/nation win medals ot their nemesis skater/nation doesnt win. If people are more invested in whole competitions as shows made for general public to enjoy in it, they will maybe agree with you. I totally agree with Lakernik answer on the question - who will win the competition then? The one who skates clean. Of course that someone who jumped 4 types of quad clean will win against someone who jumped only 2 of them. But if any of them fall during that process, im fine with someone with only clean 3As to win. My view on the problem is based exactly on worlds 2018 competition. Did Nathan deserve to win and to be watch in a program in which he shown tech mastery? Absolutely yes. But does the whole game in which hes came as a winner is worth watching? Absolutely not.

The new GOE system seems to be designed to punish mistakes very harshly, so hopefully we'll get to see more clean competitions after it's implemented. Though of course it might be too soon to pass judgement on the +-5 GOE because we still don't know everything about how it'll work. But generally expanding the GOE range is a good way to go about scoring, I think. (It could also backfire quite spectacularly though, so we'll see.)