It looks like (if everything goes as expected) that Kudlai and Pulina will be the last two to q for Nats. Pulina was a bit unlucky that Mazur beat her in Moscow, which meant that she has the same points as Kudlai - 12, but a lower scoring total.
The only two threats for Kudlai and Pulina are Vazhnova and Mazur if they will skate here...or if Agaeva gets on the podium, but that's unlikely.
Mazur's place is also in danger if Akateva gets a free ticket to Nats as a National Team member.
Dina, Anna, Maria Z, Kulikova, Adeliia, Sadkova, Lyashenko, Gushchina, Yametova, Sinitsyna, Gorbacheva (11)
Muravieva & Elisova almost sure (13)
So, 5 spots.
Pulina & Kudlai at 12 points
Zubkova needs 9th to match; Mazur, Vazhnova & Nelyubova need another 7th; Agaeva 4th (bare minimum).
We should be very confident in Alisa, Dasha, and Alina taking top 6. Even if Muravieva melts down, dropping out of top 6 is unlikely. Lyashenko is a higher scorer than the 3 who need 7th. It seems there are 2 spots left and this isn't considering Agaeva who is an unknown, and Elisova could easily steal it.
Let try scoring something along the following:
Alisa, Dasha, Mura, Alina & Lyashenko top 5 (none of this matters for qualification).
Then following (I'm putting names for tracking but in the end it won't matter. You can swap them around and it will be the same effect regarding qualification necessities):
Nelyubova 6th (8 points)
Elisova 7th (6 points)
Mazur 8th (4 points)
Vazhnova 9th (2 points)
Zubkova 10th (1 point)
For now let's forget about Agaeva & Tsvetkova (who scores sub 150) to calculate. We still have 5 spots. Elisova would pass everyone by a margin. Nelyubova would have 14, Mazur 10, Vazhnova 8.
So, this qualifies Nelyubova, Pulina and Kudlai, with 2 spots left. It would qualify Zubkova on 11 then whoever has the highest total from the 10-pointers.
Swapping Nelyubova with Elisova changes effectively nothing. This ultimately means that any of our 3 who "needed" 7th don't actually
need it. They could qualify off 10 points total
as long as Agaeva doesn't finish top 4 (which would grant her a 12 total). Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for Muravieva) Agaeva will almost definitely not finish 4th.
Remember: If Agaeva finishes 5th for 10 points, she will only have a total score from one event, so she will be flattened by the total of any other 10-pointer.
Also: this means that Kudlai and Pulina suffer
effectively no threat. They are almost guaranteed qualification.
Zubkova scoring higher changes nothing. If Agaeva beats some (which she almost definitely will) it strengthens the effect further.
There is no realistic result at this tournament which ends the total GP with 18 or more skaters at minimum 12 points.
Oh—I forgot Akateva! Well, then actually, that precludes any possibility of qualifying with 10 points (
if Akateva attends Nats). However, it still means 12 will be enough for everyone who earns it.
Pulina & Kudlai are safe.
Agaeva is the most enticing participant for me.
Extremely tired and now going to bed. I hope nothing was egregiously wrong here.
(Groan) this is Mozalev we are talking about. Definetly never applies to him. He is skating very confidently this season but goes down on more than half of his quad attempts. In a stronger field of good, natural jumpers he is at risk.
Well, with 12 points he basically already qualified even if he finishes last. There is no risk.
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