Zhenya is not becoming the next Yulia. Shes visibly struggling, but the payoff could be tremendous if she is able to fix her jumps. She’s going to be missed at the GPF, but she’ll have time to grow and train more to be ready for RusNats.
The thing about payoff.
Every year, new juniors turn seniors. Quite a few of the current juniors (and I am not talking about quadsters - Kim Ye-lim, Alena Kanysheva, Anastasia Tarakanova, Anna Tarusina, Kseniia Sinitsyna, Yuhana Yokoi, You Young - all those girls scored 180-200 as juniors this season. Some of them will turn senior next year.) have a tech content similar to what Zhenya at her best can realistically do. Also, they are 15-16 years old, which means jumping and jumping consistently is much easier for them than it is for Zhenya.
Zhenya, whatever she does, cannot realistically outjump them, she can just keep up with them. Her main advantages are PCs, high levels and high GOE.
And this is why people are alarmed: not simply because she struggles with jumps:
1. Lots of StSq3. Ok, they are fixing her jumps. But she should be still able to pull out a StSq4, specially if they are also working on improving her skating skills. And this is important. For example, take this event: with a StSq4 in SP she would be 1st going into the FS. Maybe that would have given her the extra confidence she needed for FS?
2. Generic programs and bad packaging. Once the novelty wore off, i suppose most people here agree that Zhenya's programs this season do not flatter her and are not a good vehicle for her. They do not help her to get high PCs even when her jumps are not there. Her dresses are also quite debatable this season.
3. Performance. Performance is not there, and it shouldn't disappear because jump technique is being reworked.
4. Bad jump layout decisions. Edge issues with Lz? Lets put 2-3 of them across two programs. Struggling to get into GPF? Lets change the jump layout right before the competition! Honstly, if she is having troubles, they could have kept her old layout, which she was used to and would have better chances to skate clean, not rework the jumps and increase difficulty at the same time.
Basically, her PCs, heavily based on reputation, are slowly going down the drain. Not making GPF will further hit it. Russian nationals are just a month away. Can she recover and be #3? Not making Euros and Worlds team will also hit her PCs big time (and will likely mean that she will not be skating in the last group next year, which would also hit her PCs).
And that is the whole thing - Russia has tons of skaters, and tons of juniors. Yep, some struggle, but the sheer amount of them mean that there will be always 3 skaters who can skate clean at nationals. Zhenya cannot afford not making Worlds and Euros in any given year. Look at Tuktik - yep, she is back. But notice her PCs and her GOEs - do you think those would be higher if she was in the mix every year? Yes they would be. But Tuktik at least has a 3A and a pristine jump technique.
If Zhenya's PCs drop, there will be no payoff. She will win nothing with 60-70 PCs, regardless of her jump technique. She will not make the team for Worlds and Euros with such PCs.