2024-25 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[RafaelAstro]

I wasn't expecting much in this competition due to the strong field here, but damn the japanese once again prove me wrong and they leave with two medals! Congratulations to Wakaba for her GPF qualify, I'm glad she is looking stronger and that it wasn't just something of one competition, next week looks promising

 

[Joekaz]

The q on her salchaw in the free was totally a nuts, how could they?

Its called cheating. They knew Amber chokes alot so they wanted to give her a bigger cushion. They don't want a GPF with no Americans. Lol

 

[Joekaz]

There is a real chance GPF is all Japanese this year in the women's. If Amber Glenn does poorly in her other event, which isnt unrealistic from her history, there is a good chance. The problem is the US Fed will do everything to help her, as they did in France. But we will see.

 

[YuBluByMe]

There is a real chance GPF is all Japanese this year in the women's. If Amber Glenn does poorly in her other event, which isnt unrealistic from her history, there is a good chance. The problem is the US Fed will do everything to help her, as they did in France. But we will see.

NHK is the weakest of the three fields left, but a few skaters can play spoiler without qualifying themselves. Chiba is a nervy skater, but she can put up 190+ with mistakes which is comparable to what Tennell and Liu can score. I can easily see a Sakamoto-American-Chiba podium. Chiba will want at least a silver, but the best case scenario is if Chiba skates lights out like she did at 4CC and wins with Sakamoto placing second.

Finlandia is going to be pivotal. Yoshida and Matsuike need to put up strong skates in both programs because Levito is a steady competitor. The two bronzes - Levito and Yoshida - will want a silver or better. But even a silver will not guarantee GPF qualification. If Sumiyoshi gets silver in her next GP with a 195+ score, for example, they’ll likely lose to her in a combined total tie-breaker.

Same thing applies for Matsuike if she wins a bronze. Everhardt can also play spoiler in a big way if she’s on the podium. I’ll be hoping for Matsuike and Yoshida to go 1-2 in any order. Hendrickx doesn’t look good this season, but I won’t count her out because her winning with Yoshida and Matsuike getting silver and bronze with great scores respectively isn’t the worse scenario.

China is going to be very tough. Glenn will be tested and honestly, I don’t even think she needs to fall apart to not qualify in this field. Glenn won France because of her lead in the SP and a little push from the technical panel, right? Her free skate could be a problem if she doesn’t have a big lead going in. She needs to skate a clean short with a 3A; if she doesn’t, I think she’ll struggle to make the final. Kim Chaeyeon and Repond are consistent. I’ll bet good money on at least one of them beating her if she skates a sub-70 SP.

I hate the idea of Sumiyoshi being on the chopping block since she was first alternate once and was last place at GPF last year. I will like for her to qualify, but it has to be at least a silver. (Has Sumiyoshi NOT medalled in a GP?) I always underestimate Watanabe but she’s proven that she can compete when it matters.

An all-Japan GPF is possible, but I don’t think it’ll happen. I think it’ll be 5 + 1 American or 4 + 1 American + Kim Chaeyeon. I don’t think Levito will make it as she either needs to win or win a strong silver. I considered Kim to be the favorite to win France and 2 + 4 beats out 3+3.

 

[DemTuppesSeine]

I don’t think Levito will make it as she either needs to win or win a strong silver.

Isabeau won't make the final since she withdrew from Finlandia

 

[Joekaz]

Isabeau won't make the final since she withdrew from Finlandia

I guess that explains why tech panel was so lenient on Glenn and PCS was so high. It was probably known before France.

 

[DemTuppesSeine]

I guess that explains why tech panel was so lenient on Glenn and PCS was so high. It was probably known before France.

That's mere speculation at this point.

 

[Joekaz]

That's mere speculation at this point.

Of course it is. Speculation is what blogs are for. Do you think the ISU would admit to polical influence in skating? Yet we all know it exists. Of course it could have happened without knowledge of Levitos withdrawal.

 

[rabidline]

Loena is also out from Finlandia so there are more points for Hana and Rino to fight over.

China will be the showdown- depending on how NHK shakes out we can be seeing Amber vs. Mone vs. Rinka vs. Rion vs. Chaeyeon. And the last GP too... it will be a bloodbath both on ice and on the panels. Especially if Hana and Rino locked in their spots (Hana wins and Rino 2nd) at Finlandia.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Don't forget Yuna Aoki can fight back at nhk, not for a chance to the grand prix final but to prevent another skater to take a medal in this competition and make the japan sweep, if she goes clean as in local competitions she will do it

 

[rabidline]

It definitely feels like the 2026 Olympic spots battle have started from now. GP will lead to GPF will lead to 4CC and Worlds will lead to body of work for the Olympic selection... and then next year Ami Nakai will be in the mix so her junior results (and how many times she's landing the 3A up to Milano) will also be playing a part.

 

[Joekaz]

It definitely feels like the 2026 Olympic spots battle have started from now. GP will lead to GPF will lead to 4CC and Worlds will lead to body of work for the Olympic selection... and then next year Ami Nakai will be in the mix so her junior results (and how many times she's landing the 3A up to Milano) will also be playing a part.

And after all that it will probably come down top 3 at Nationals like usual. Lol

 

[rabidline]

And after all that it will probably come down top 3 at Nationals like usual. Lol

Last year JSF was very thorough in detailing their selection process by announcing who are the skaters still in the running for Worlds and 4CC selection before Nationals, and explained their decision to the media after with the calculations. We'll see if it continues this year.

 

[Joekaz]

Last year JSF was very thorough in detailing their selection process by announcing who are the skaters still in the running for Worlds and 4CC selection before Nationals, and explained their decision to the media after with the calculations. We'll see if it continues this year.

I understand. But if you look at the details it usually works out that almost all the top girls meet the criteria. So the judges usually go with top 3. Remember the Olympics 6 years ago when they only had 2 spots. Satoko won Nationals, so only one spot was left. Wakaba was their best , most successful skater that year and had the advantage in almost every selection criteria. But Kaori finished ahead of her in Nationals,so they sent her instead, despite Higuchi's superior qualifications.

 

[rabidline]

I understand. But if you look at the details it usually works out that almost all the top girls meet the criteria. So the judges usually go with top 3. Remember the Olympics 6 years ago when they only had 2 spots. Satoko won Nationals, so only one spot was left. Wakaba was their best , most successful skater that year and had the advantage in almost every selection criteria. But Kaori finished ahead of her in Nationals,so they sent her instead, despite Higuchi's superior qualifications.

Yeah, but JSF has made non-podium choices for Worlds team since then. With the precedent JSF has set, and the tightness of the field, I say it's important for everyone to stack up their resumes with every kind of result they can get starting this season, be it Personal Best / Season Best scores, GPF qualification and medals, World and 4CC medals, as it may end up being the balance tipper for their favor when the selection comes.

Honestly I do hope the Japanese women doing well this early will lead to a good result at Worlds- they really need those 3 spots.

 

[Joekaz]

Yeah, but since 2022, JSF has made non-podium choices for Worlds team. With this precedent, I say it's important for everyone to stack up their resumes with every kind of result they can get starting this season, as it may end up being the balance tipper for their favor when the selection comes.

That's true. They have made non podium choices before as well. The real truth is they can send anyone they choose other than winner at Nationals. The point Im making is if skaters are comparable, generally Nationals placement will trump doing better during the season, unless their is a huge gap. They don't want Nationals to lose its importance. So I would say you are right that resume building is important, but if you come in 4th at Nats, you had better be way better than the 3rd place finisher.

 

[rabidline]

The point Im making is if skaters are comparable, generally Nationals placement will trump doing better during the season, unless their is a huge gap. They don't want Nationals to lose its importance. So I would say you are right that resume building is important, but if you come in 4th at Nats, you had better be way better than the 3rd place finisher.

Definitely agree with this. The ideal situation is the eligible seniors do well both in the season and at Nationals, so it's like choosing the best from the bests. I just hope that it won't be a case of someone being a GPF finalist and then also finished 15th at Nationals

It's like Rino at Skate Canada. When Chris was reading her profile, it's like... she's invited to 2 GPs but she's also the 17th place finisher at Japanese Nationals, you can hear the confusion / astonishment in his tone.

 

[Joekaz]

Definitely agree with this. The ideal situation is the eligible seniors do well both in the season and at Nationals, so it's like choosing the best from the bests. I just hope that it won't be a case of someone being a GPF finalist and then also finished 15th at Nationals

It's like Rino at Skate Canada. When Chris was reading her profile, it's like... she's invited to 2 GPs but she's also the 17th place finisher at Japanese Nationals, you can hear the confusion / astonishment in his tone.

If a real longshot is close to podium after the short at Nats, the judges will bury them in the long. They don't want that headache. Also, if I was a Japanese skater and don't win world's this year, I would definitely hope Kaori wins instead of another Japanese.

 

[rabidline]

if I was a Japanese skater and don't win world's this year, I would definitely hope Kaori wins instead of another Japanese.

In an ironic way, Kaori is kind of the great equalizer for all the other girls.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Definitely agree with this. The ideal situation is the eligible seniors do well both in the season and at Nationals, so it's like choosing the best from the bests. I just hope that it won't be a case of someone being a GPF finalist and then also finished 15th at Nationals

Lol Rinka