Predictions | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Predictions

colleen o'neill said:
Still too chicken to make actual predictions..:rolleye:..but I'm so curious about a number of things...
As Pogue says P/B are not D/W and D/W changed their SD very early on...I don't know..I can't try to count the respective weeks between dances for each team ( I'm obsessed, just not that obsessed )..but I bet F/S are coming into this very prepared, and Camerlengo did a good job on their choreography last year...But do we even know their music yet ? Last time I checked , it was still a mystery. OTOH I think ( if true )that the Zhivago switch sounds very hopeful for P/B. I quite liked the look of B/S's SD from earlier on, and they will only have had to polish...

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colleen, shame on you! Have you never noticed the program lists we keep stickied on the top of the edge? I update those posts as more info comes in.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ll-Disciplines&p=505977&viewfull=1#post505977

The first 4 posts in the thread are updated by me after every event and whenever I get new info.

SD
On the street where you live (instrumental)
I could have danced all night
The rain in spain

Free Dance : Manolete
From "Flamenco" by Pepe Romero:

Que se ven desde el conquero
De mi vera te fuistes


They have put some clips up on their website. However, they are changing things around so you may have to hunt for them.

I think we can assume F&S are very prepared. However, they have not skated their SD in competition yet, and other teams before them have had some surprises from the tech committee, particularly if they are as tough as at Nebelhorn and NHK.
 
sorry to be biased as I cannot receive Universal or icenetwork feed.

But for us Europeans (and for North America) will there be a live feed from a chinese station? Will someone have a link??
 
yelyoh said:
Whose? Ours? How so? You have to pay to have access to cometition threads at FSU.
Click to expand...

A very helpful and diligent poster at FSU has posted a series of practice reports.
If you are reading here, thank you cheriepopo. :clap: :rock:

Practice Reports, etc.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Feel free to merge this thread if needed!

Thursday practice
Ice dance is too early for me to get up, so I started with the ladies -

First Group -
Diane SZMIETT: I was late for this group so I missed her routine, but the music is obvious - Phantom of the Opera. All her lutz during this practice were doubled or fell.

Bingwa Geng: Aranjuez for SP, horrible remix, like in a funeral Her skating reminds me of Caroline Zhang especially since Caroline now has fixed her mule kick, and I think she even looks like Caroline. I don't think she has improved much since I watched her last year...

Qiuying Zhu: Nutcracker, SP. This is the second time I watched her live, and still can't remember anything...

Miki Ando: Short program. She looks huge in this group - elements, skating skills, and the arms but in a beautiful way. She tried 3Lz3Loop several times and hit it every time, looked very solid in this practice, I don't remember if she made any mistake. Not a fan, but she should win this event for all reasons.

Akiko Suzuki: Long program, fun and lively as always. She struggled with some of her jumps, I remember she had a bad fall on a loop.

Second group - I moved to another seat for a better view, but it turned out worse, so I wasn't able to follow all the ladies
Leonova: Long program, for the first few seconds I thought it was a SD music...the opening combo in the program is a 3T+3S seq. Not too much speed overall.

Joshi Helgesson: Long program, weird music combo. She hit most of the jumps during this practice I think, but there's not too much speed and flow overall.

Dobbs: Moon River, I have a soft spot for this music so I have to like this program She looks like a blond and younger version of Meryl Davis.

Musademba: Short program. She had some jump problems.

Mirai: Long program. Frank Carroll was not there. She was slow overall except the first half of her routine, looked very tired after the routine so I guess it's still jetleg. It could be a nice program if she put more speed in it. She had a little problems with some of her lutz/flips, I think it's due to the injury?

NO tango so far! surprised!

Men

First group-

Peitong Chen -Quixote, long program. Good looking as always He is coached by Chengjiang Li's coach so there's good height on his jumps, but there's really no flow and hard to watch...

Jinlin GUan - Turandot, same long program as last year.

Jialiang Wu - Short program. He showed me his butt-spin, twice, it almost killed me

Tomas Verner - MJ Medley, long program, one of his gloves is sparkling blue. I like the first and last parts of this program. Poor Tomas didn't hit ANY jump in this practice I think, and he had problems with his CCosp too, twice IIRC. But since no one knows what he can do in the competition, you don't need to take me serious.

Brian Joubert - Long program. I spotted Guyon behind the boards during the ladies practice and recognized she's one of the former coaches of his, and several seconds later I realized that she IS his coach now. I think he only hit one 3A in this practice, and popped every 4S. His flip, lutz and 4T were OK.

Liebers - Long program. For me he's obscure There was a sound test during the first seconds of his routine, and I nearly thought that's part of the vocal...He was generally OK in this practice, the jumps were half-half landed. But his elements looked small next to Brian and Tomas.

I'll post the second group and pairs tonight, now I have to run before the traffic rush hour comes.

......... Originally Posted by RunnersHigh
BTW, no news on Min-Jung Kwak? Wasn't she there? .........

Ooops, sorry about this, yes she was there! She did her long program, don't remember the music but it seems a little big for her IMO. Her overall pratice was just so-so, but it looked like she's pretty relaxed.

btw, shall I post the press conference of each event in this thread too or in the event threads?

Men's second group -

Contesti - his hair is much longer He didn't attempt any jump in his routine, and I actually don't remember if he has ever attempt any big jump in this entire practice.

Kozuka - Long program. Soft and smooth as always, and this probably is why he can't try a different style. He's really off today, I saw a bad fall right in front of my corner, and he seemed in a low mood too. Poor kid, really hope he could get everything together tomorrow

Machida - Legends of the Fall, long program. I'm a fan of this soundtrack so I have to adore this program He wasn't very fast nor smooth compare to Kozuka, and I don't think his jumps is as big as other top Japanese men's. But overall, he did OK in this practice. Is this his first GP?

Voronov - Rach No.3, free skate. He and Brandon Mroz almost ran into each other during this routine, that was very close After he landed the 2a3T combo Eislauffan laughed that it's a lady's element, but I think this combo is much better than his 2Lz3T last year The final step seq of this program is very Morozov...

Ross Miner - As time goes by, free skate, and he looks like Jeremy Abbott! His lines and some moves reminds me of Jeremy too, but Jeremy for sure won't choose a weird music selection like this. He was very, VERY solid today, nailed every jump in the routine and the rest of this practice.

Brandon Mroz - Long program. He was pretty solid until his routine, nearly messed up all the jumps and I don't remember if he landed any clean one later. In his Planned Elements list there isn't any combo in his SP, and there's also a "?" written in the blank which is supposed to be his second spin, plus he didn't do all the elements in the LP routine as the planned order. I guess he'll need more time to decide and fill a new Planned Elements form.

Pairs

First group -A reporter from US left his camera on the stand after the ladies practice, Eislauffan and I brought it back to the press center after the men's and I waited there until he showed up and took over the camera. So I was late for the first group, and missed the routine of the first team.

Hole/Johnson - I remember her last name! they had problems with all their jump elements, sbs and throws, can't remember how many times she fell.

Dong/Wu - The Myth, free skate, I swear this is at least the 3rd season I saw them skated to this! Their lifts at Skate Canada were a bit shaky so maybe this is why they tried more lifts than the other teams here. They also tried several sbs spins but it all ended up in different sides.

Pang/Tong - Free skate. They both look hot in those red top training outfits. Didn't attempt any jump in their routine but tried several throws later and all great. This is the same old music style for them but I really could feel there's something new in their presentation, perhaps it's because now they are finally a real couple on and off ice.

Sui/Han - City of Light, same free skate as last season. Cute cute cute kids! They are so different with Bin Yao's teams, very entertaining and natural, for some moments I even thought they would jump into a sbs twizzle seq! Looked very solid and relaxed in this practice, looking forward to their debut tomorrow!

Second group

Della Monica/Kocon - Free skate. Italians skate to Ennio Morricone, good combination. Weird that I don't remember too much about them, maybe because they didn't do much element in my corner.

Iliushechkina/Maisuradze - Short program, really dislike this music Their jumps were half-half landed today, I remember she did a beautiful 3t+3t in front of me. Last year when they competed here, I think they skated generally like nobody, but this time they do skate with confidence and that makes them look special.

Evora/Ladwig - Free skate, first Tosca and then Turnadot This is their 3rd Cup of China and I'm really happy to see them again. I was looking forward to see their lifts but they only did 3 today, and the first one in the routine was aborted when Amanda was changing her position. They tried this lift later and it was really stunning. They struggled with all their throw jumps, he nearly threw her with no distance and she could do nothing but fall

Yankowskas/Coughlin - Free skate, I liked them a lot at NHk Trophy. She had problems with the sbs jumps here and there but they nailed a good 3-2-2 combo in the routine. Hopefully they can do a good job like they did in Japan.

OK, that's all for today, hope I could wake up early enough for the ladies, men and pairs practice tomorrw, ice dance is too early for me as usual...
 
Oh, Doris..Mea Culpa !

That must have slipped by me. Thanks..I seem to remember, now, going to their site way back in August or something, but couldn't seem to find anything...Then, they flew out of my head. I was probably caught up in all the K/A speculation...;)

Anyway , I have a little treat for you as an apology, but this is not the place for it. I've put it in The Edge.:)

..Which ( of course) has been moved to it's proper place..Le Cafe..what can I say ?..Klutz.
 
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i hate to say it --but Mirai's" injury" is HEALED -shouldn't affect it.

jet lag will, probably pressure.
and No practing will effect performance as well.- i don't mean injury wise.sorry about the snipe- but no one brought up c zhangs injury last year when she skated -so mirai's injury is a non-factor since it is healed, but than she is like sasha each year comes out with and injury to excuse her skating ability.
 
fairly4 said:
i hate to say it --but Mirai's" injury" is HEALED -shouldn't affect it.

jet lag will, probably pressure.
and No practing will effect performance as well.- i don't mean injury wise.sorry about the snipe- but no one brought up c zhangs injury last year when she skated -so mirai's injury is a non-factor since it is healed, but than she is like sasha each year comes out with and injury to excuse her skating ability.
Click to expand...

I think you need to take a chill pill and relax with all the rude comments about every skater except Caroline Zhang. I love Caroline, but I don't think she would want a fan of hers to just heap insults upon others. BTW I'm Chinese too, so I'm not racist, so don't even try to pull that card :rolleye:
 
fairly4 said:
i hate to say it --but Mirai's" injury" is HEALED -shouldn't affect it.

jet lag will, probably pressure.
and No practing will effect performance as well.- i don't mean injury wise.sorry about the snipe- but no one brought up c zhangs injury last year when she skated -so mirai's injury is a non-factor since it is healed, but than she is like sasha each year comes out with and injury to excuse her skating ability.
Click to expand...

While I agree with you that people are making a bigger deal out of this injury than warranted, having had an injury during the summer, though healed, DEFINITELY affects your performance for a while after.

I'm an internationally competitive marathon runner, and I know from personal experience that more likely than not, people rebound from stress fractures pretty easily. This said, stress fractures require you to take off at least 6 weeks from training, meaning that, the athlete needs to regain stamina over the course of a few months before being up to 100%...

... and if you're under the assumption that skating full-speed for 4 minutes while landing crazy jumps doesn't take stamina, that's a whole other issue that you need to wrap your mind around. This, with the fact that it takes time to become comfortable enough with a program to really sell it, makes it likely that Mirai won't be at 100% at this first event (though I doubt that many skaters are at this point).

So, in short: yes it has an effect, but no, we shouldn't panic.
 
Ladies (I'm most familiar with them)
1. Ando
2. Suzuki
3. Leonova

I wish Mirai does well, and I'd normally put her in the top 3, but I'm concerned about what we heard about her fairly recent injury.

Men
1. Kozuka
2. Joubert
3. I guess Contesti

Pairs
1. Pang/Tong
 
Worries me when i hear Mirai is lacking speed and seems tired. The foot injury has affected her stamina no doubt. One of Mirai's greatest strengths has always been her speed and Frank improved her stamina last season. A top 3 finish would be a victory i think.
 
fairly4 said:
but Mirai's" injury" is HEALED -shouldn't affect it.
Click to expand...

Still hesistant to put her as my gold prediction. An injury nags at you at your worst times. Pop one jump & a skater starts to doubt oneself. The timing of jumps can get off. Entrance might be slowed, leading to UR. The skater might just steam out & give up mid-way. I know Mirai's legs are "golden" but I doubt her mental strength. Worlds 2010 could have been hers :disapp: My prediction is still Miki, Akiko and Mirai, in that order, but if Mirai skates strong, I'm all for her win.

Has Mirai given any interviews?
 
Well, I haven't had tooooo much luck with predictions so far, except for skate Canada where I got all the top four men right and Alissa for gold :biggrin:

but here goes:

Women:

1. Miki Ando
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Akiko Suzuki

Men:
1. Brian Joubert
2. Kozuka
3. Verner or Contesti or Mroz or ... a surprise. :p I guess that's cheating but as Joesitz said in another thread a lot of these guys are good but iffy competitors...

I really want to put Mirai first but based on Polymer's practice report - Miki is looking good! When she is on, she's always tough to beat. I'm still keeping Mirai second even though she apparently is struggling. She and Miki are potentially the highest scorers of the bunch by far.

In very early competitions, neither Suzuki or Leonova posted particulary high scores... but I sort of just give the edge to Suzuki. I kinda like Alena's quirkly programs this year and while I think Suzuki's are a bit on the generic side, I think she sells her choreo better.

Good luck to everyone!!!!!!

ETA:

Still hesistant to put her as my gold prediction. An injury nags at you at your worst times. Pop one jump & a skater starts to doubt oneself. The timing of jumps can get off. Entrance might be slowed, leading to UR. The skater might just steam out & give up mid-way. I know Mirai's legs are "golden" but I doubt her mental strength. Worlds 2010 could have been hers My prediction is still Miki, Akiko and Mirai, in that order, but if Mirai skates strong, I'm all for her win.

Has Mirai given any interviews?
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It's a bummer for Mirai that her world's LP is the last thing people remember about her last season. As far as I'm concerned, she proved herself to be a tough competitor with solid GP performances, two back-to-back awesome nationals programs and two back-to-back stellar Olympic performances. If she had been just as near-flawless at worlds it would have been astonishing. Yuna struggled at worlds, Rachael struggled at worlds...Yet people don't seem to question their mental toughness :think:
 
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Layfan said:
It's a bummer for Mirai that her world's LP is the last thing people remember about her last season. As far as I'm concerned, she proved herself to be a tough competitor with solid GP performances, two back-to-back awesome nationals programs and two back-to-back stellar Olympic performances. If she had been just as near-flawless at worlds it would have been astonishing. Yuna struggled at worlds, Rachael struggled at worlds...Yet people don't seem to question their mental toughness :think:
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Well that's because it was such a big :bang::cry: Her Nationals & Olympic showings were amazing, but she ended her season with a meltdown taking her from 1st to 7th. That was the last impression she gave. Everyone struggled at Worlds 2010 (it was an underwhelming event, to say the least), but mostly because of fatigue or lack of motivation. Mirai gave an amazing short & had good practices. I wouldn't say she suffered from either... so peope can't help but wonder why.

She's definitely not a bundle of nerves. Don't get me wrong. I just think pressure gets to her more than some other athletes. It's not like she was the heavy favorite going into Nationals or the Olympics.
 
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dlgpffps said:
Mirai gave an amazing short & had good practices. I wouldn't say she suffered from either... so peope can't help but wonder why.

She's definitely not a bundle of nerves. Don't get me wrong. I just think pressure gets to her more than some other athletes. It's not like she was the heavy favorite going into Nationals or the Olympics.
Click to expand...

I agree it was pressure. For the first time all season all hopes were riding on her, and she felt it.
 
dlgpffps said:
Well that's because it was such a big :bang::cry: Her Nationals & Olympic showings were amazing, but she ended her season with a meltdown taking her from 1st to 7th. That was the last impression she gave. Everyone struggled at Worlds 2010 (it was an underwhelming event, to say the least), but mostly because of fatigue or lack of motivation. Mirai gave an amazing short & had good practices. I wouldn't say she suffered from either... so peope can't help but wonder why.

She's definitely not a bundle of nerves. Don't get me wrong. I just think pressure gets to her more than some other athletes. It's not like she was the heavy favorite going into Nationals or the Olympics.
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At Nationals, she was first after the SP and had to skate last in the FS after Rachael and Ashley had skated very well. The Olympic team was on the line. Sounds pretty scary to me but she held it together. And it's true that there was no major pressure on her or Rachael at the Olympics, but Mirai still had to skate last. She could have done a Laeticia Hubert but she didn't.

You are right that pressure got to her at worlds in a big way, and she admitted it herself... But I'm through underestimating her competitive abilities is all I'm saying.
 
After the SP the odds are not looking good for Contesti or Leonova, especially Contesti, he doesn't have the PCS to help him out.
 
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