(somewhat gloomy) Article: U.S. skating prospects dim

[Eliza]

About Michelle's spiral, while I don't feel sorry for Michelle about it, I feel sorry for us. We don't get to see the second most spectacular move in the history of skating any more.

MM

Maybe we'll get to see it in exhibitions.

What is the first most spectacular move?

Eliza

 

[Mathman]

What is the first most spectacular move?

It's a tie between Dorothy Hamill's blur spin and Frick and Frack jumping over 20 barrels.

 

[Mathman]

With Michelle's edge-control, I think there is virtually no limit to what she can do with her step spiral sequence. A 180-degree turn from a FOE to a BIE spiral. Or better yet, and I bet Michelle could do it, a 540-degree turn (a full turn and a half) from a FOE to a BIE spiral. Or a change edge from a FOE arabesque position to a BIE catch-foot Y position.

ITA, and (like Eliza) I greatly look forward to seeing Michelle's Fab Five-Forty in COI.

But in terms of competing under the CoP... If she did all that maybe it would raise her spiral sequence from a level 3 to a level 4, gaining her an extra 0.3 points (3.1 versus 3.4 base mark). Then if she did it really, really well, she might hope for a +2 instead of a +1 GOE (putting her in Alissa Czisny territory!) After factoring (70%), this translates into a gain of 0.7 points. Altogether, that's a gain of exactly 1 point under the CoP.

Why wouldn't Michelle say, screw it, I'll just tack an extra 2-loop to my combo instead (1.3 points)?

MM

 

[slutskayafan21]

If you don't mind being spoiled, Carolina is competing at Skate Canada right now. You can check out her SP in the Events folder, if you havent already.

Yeah I saw her short program at Skate Canada last night. She has a much more sophisticated look, and a much better relation to her music. I was very impressed, unfortunately she screwed up her combo jump. Alot of potential for later in the year if she can hit those jumps though.

 

[R.D.]

I think comments about her skate can be considered a spoiler, and maybe shouldn't be discussed here...?

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think comments about her skate can be considered a spoiler, and maybe shouldn't be discussed here...?

Sorry, but I doubt there is anybody who doesnt know already. hwell:

 

[R.D.]

Sorry, but I doubt there is anybody who doesnt know already. hwell:

Perhaps, but maybe out of respect for those few, you know? (Or do we just forget they even exist and go all out? hwell: ) I know I would be really annoyed to see a spoiler here (in the Edge). But that's just me.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Evan did well at Worlds, and, has started off the GP with a bang and last season, Johnny had great success on the GP circuit -- but Wilner doesn't think that the men will medal.

I dont know what you find so strange about that opinon. Lysacek has started off the GP on fire? If that is his "on fire" skating, and it probably is, it only re-
confirms what a miracle it would be for him to repeat his bronze from Worlds last year at the Olympics, heaven forbid bettering it. Takahashi even with a fall in the short smoked him in their last meeting, beating him by well over 20 points.
Plushenko on a bad day, and Lambiel on an average day, are easily out of reach of Lysacek's best, even if he somehow gets a quad(which I highly doubt). Joubert gets higher PCS scores than him regularly, and that is supposably Lysacek's strength, and Joubert's weakness, if Joubert his most of his jumps he will beat Lysacet, but in the last 12 months he has been in a serious slump. Oh yeah and there is Buttle, and even Lindemann and Sandhu on a good day.

Weir has a better chance but to say he seems to be in a state of turmoil right now would be an understatement and he has still not medaled at a major event.

 

[kyla2]

Slutskayafan21

I have seen the World's competition with Chen and Michelle many times and there was a clear cut winner that day. Chen skated beautifully but Michelle took it to another level and I believe added a jump for good measure. It was an easy call. Michelle Kwan has never been handed anything by anyone. She has had to work for it and then deliver the goods. The same better be said for Irina if she does win or there will be another skating scandal to contend with.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I have seen the World's competition with Chen and Michelle many times and there was a clear cut winner that day. Chen skated beautifully but Michelle took it to another level and I believe added a jump for good measure. It was an easy call. Michelle Kwan has never been handed anything by anyone. She has had to work for it and then deliver the goods. The same better be said for Irina if she does win or there will be another skating scandal to contend with.

You are one of the first ones I have ever heard say michelle's win at the 96 Worlds was clear cut. Even the most ardent Michelle fans who agreed with it, have stated it could have gone either way. It is obvious you are a Kwan fanatic with no objectivity whatsoever so I will let this rest.

 

[attyfan]

I dont know what you find so strange about that opinon ... . Lysacek has started off the GP on fire? If that is his "on fire" skating, and it probably is, it only re-
confirms what a miracle it would be for him to repeat his bronze from Worlds last year at the Olympics, heaven forbid bettering it. ... .

First, why are you assuming that skaters such as Joubert will do a lot better at Olys than he did at SA, but not assuming the same thing for Evan? Second, I find it interesting that Wilner gave participation and/or success in the GP different weights for different skaters. Evan not only is participating, but was fairly successful at his first event; he still can't medal; Kwan isn't participating; she can't medal.

 

[slutskayafan21]

First, why are you assuming that skaters such as Joubert will do a lot better at Olys than he did at SA, but not assuming the same thing for Evan? Second, I find it interesting that Wilner gave participation and/or success in the GP different weights for different skaters. Evan not only is participating, but was fairly successful at his first event; he still can't medal; Kwan isn't participating; she can't medal.

Quite obvious, Joubert made alot of mistakes at Skate America, Evan had almost none; Evan even beat Joubert on the PCS scores which is Evans stronger part, not Jouberts. So who has the better chance of skating better than that? Obviously Joubert. Of course either skaters can make improvements to programs, etc....but the skaters with far far more mistakes has much more likelihood to better that effort.

I dont know how getting beaten by 22 points, despite skating very well, by a skater not named Plushenko or Lambiel is a sign of strong podium potential for the Olympics. Oh yeah and there is also Buttle, Weir, and several others, it is amazing Buttles embarassing free skate at his last event almost tied the points of Lysaceks good free skate from Skate America, and then with the short program he probably still would have beaten him. I would be willing to bet money you wont see Lysacek anywhere near the Olympic podium unless others blow up and he skates flawlessly.

 

[Rgirl]

ITA, and (like Eliza) I greatly look forward to seeing Michelle's Fab Five-Forty in COI.

But in terms of competing under the CoP... If she did all that maybe it would raise her spiral sequence from a level 3 to a level 4, gaining her an extra 0.3 points (3.1 versus 3.4 base mark). Then if she did it really, really well, she might hope for a +2 instead of a +1 GOE (putting her in Alissa Czisny territory!) After factoring (70%), this translates into a gain of 0.7 points. Altogether, that's a gain of exactly 1 point under the CoP.

Why wouldn't Michelle say, screw it, I'll just tack an extra 2-loop to my combo instead (1.3 points)?

MM

Exactly. And if it's not that big of a deal, then if Michelle wants to hold the second half of her change-edge spiral a little longer, even though she doesn't get any more points for it, neither does she get any less.

So Michelle can tack on an extra 2loop to her combo and keep "the greatest move in the history of skating"--or whatever you called it--as part of her spiral and everybody will be happy.

Unless, of course, by possibly getting a +1 instead of a +2 GOE, which, as you say, translates into a 1-point difference and Michelle loses to, for example, Czisny, by the difference in that GOE...

But now I'm making the argument for skaters driving themselves crazy over how many points they can get, LOL. I think the skaters must, at some point, strike a balance between what they know they can do well, do consistently, and do under pressure. If that's the most they can do in their SP and LP, with the rest being up to the judges, we're right back to the way things have always been for the skaters--trying to design the most difficult and aesthetically pleasing program they can without trying to do too much or not challenging themselves enough.

But to get all frazzled over every possible point, well, I guess it's to be expected in an Olympic year--I mean from the fans.

Rgirl