Okay, 130 for this FP and around 75, at maximum 80, for the SP internationally. This is common sense in Russia and obviously everywhere else.
Her free skate in Beijing was clean.. Seven triples, no negative grades of execution. A clean seven triple program scores better in TES and PCS than a six triple program plus an underrotated 3a and downgraded 4t fall.
Definitely not the main roster.
Usually, 7th is enough for the reserve team, especially if she does similarly at the Russian GP Final.
Gosh, I forgot that Gorbacheva would push her down to 8th...well I hope she at least makes the reserve team. Sad for Yametova, as she really needs to funding, I hope she continues to skate, I enjoy watching her.
Ummm... Adelia is not getting anywhere near those scores with these programsDisappointing final flight of skaters.
I loved Sofia Muravieva. She was the highlight of this event. I’m glad she moved up to 5th place. Another National Team (top 6 finish)
Anna Frolova lost the bronze medal due to sloppiness. Her “Cats” program is so Juniorish and she was losing levels on her spins towards the end. I yelled as I knew it might make a difference and it did. Her consistency is amazing!! But, I’m kind of glad to not see this Cats program at the Olympics. Anna can do better.
Maria(what a highlight for me). Those two 4T’s were pure grit and determination. I was always a fan of Anna P. and Maria could have really just made the Olympics with that skate, had Russia been allowed three skaters. What a story this could have been!!
Adelia was a fighter. Look at those a combos in the end: 3Lz 2A 2A, 3F 3T, 3F 3T…. So amazing and and shows what a fighter she is. In an international competition, the 4T would have been <. Her SP would have scores 80-81ish and this free skate would have scored 140-145ish. So, I think this is a good result for her. 220+ can put her in the podium at the Olympics. Also, her triples have improved. She left out her worst triple, the 3S… haha!!! The 3A was actually her saving grace at this competition. The 4T she nails in practice. But, not during competition.
The battle for the Olympic gold medal will be fierce between Ami, Kaori, Alysa, Adeliya and maybe Mone.
Very few of her jumps should be getting positive grades of execution at all - they are very muscled, poor air position, and the triple triple combinations, while very gutsy, do not have the same flow and ease of movement that most of the top 10 skaters in the world, let alone the podium contenders, possess.Thank you. People are delusional if they think this program will be competitive with the Japanese. I think there's a love affair with the stunning extension and ability to rotate that the Russians undoubtedly lead the world in. But having come to appreciate the superior skating skills of many other nations over the last few years where the Russians have been stuck doing domestic competitions, has really opened my eyes to the power of programs and choreography that aren't filled with dozens of momentary and disconnected kicks, leg extensions, and jerky movements that typically serve no real choreographic purpose other than to fill up a profram and cover up less than ideal skating skills or poor edges.
I kind of agree with what you are saying.
That's a lot of effort spent trying to reason people out of a position they didn't reason themselves into.Adeliia killed it in the SP with her 3A
I'd still have her at 85+ for an amazing SP performance with a backloaded triple triple combo upgraded with a triple axel.
In her SP she is far ahead majority of the international skaters who have serious under rotation issues on triples/doubles with questionable reputation scoring too since some of them score almost 70+ with invalid 2Lz's or popped 2F combos in a short. Petrosian is head/shoulders above that especially in her short at Rus Nats.
To make it easier to read I bolded my key points.
Regarding her free skate. The scoring for her is fair. Some people do not know how to do the math or simply aren't doing the math and it shows....
Adeliia had a BV of 74.65 at Russian Nationals vs 63.23 at International Milano olympic qualifying comp.
She upgraded her BV by +11.42 points.
She got 5.59 GOE maximum at Russian Nationals vs 11.61 GOE at International Milano olympic qualifying comp.
A loss of - 6.02 bonus points. Russian judges for her free skate did not give her more points in GOE than Milano. They did the opposite.
So she got better GOE from international judges at her Milano Free skate with +11 points total GOE boost compared with the Russian judges capping her at +5 points total.
She lost more than half her GOE boost for the risks she took---and still made it to 149-150+
Do you guys know how much GOE the former Japanese world champion and the current US world champion need to reach 149 in a free skate if given 70 in PCS like Adeliia with their own tech at the moment?
They need/require over +18 to +20 points in GOE or else they will never see 149+ in any free skate. If they got 5 points GOE like Adeliia and 70 PCS they wouldn't even break 140. For example, take the world champion's winning BV of 63.34 + Adeliia's 5.59 GOE + 70.19 in PCS = 139.12 maximum for that world champ.
Japanese skater #5 at the Grand prix final with +10 in GOE still could not touch 140+ even with that higher GOE and even if they gave her Adeliia's 70.19 she'd max out at 138 nowhere near 149.
Adeliia is in a completely different level as 5 points in GOE is enough to see 149+ (she got 150 but a -1 extra mandatory deduction for the fall brought her to 149).
Ultra-c Adeliia with negatives/punished on her errors and a low GOE total will still output higher numbers in the free which majority of the skaters internationally cannot do at this point in time. She's simply too powerful even with mistakes.
Her 3A step-out was hit with -3's and -4's.
Her 4T fall was hit with -5's across the board.
Her 2T pop was hit with -1's and 0's.
There were no bonus points given for any jumps with major errors. All negative for Adeliia yet...
Her saving grace is that she's a powerful back-loader in addition to having ultra-c. She did not fall on any non-ultra c jumps.
She racked up almost 40 points in the second half on jumps alone whereas a skater like for example, the reigning world champ, at best racks up a max of 25-27 points in the back-half. Adeliia is far stronger technically than the vast majority.
Back to her PCS....
She got 70 in PCS from judges at Russian Nationals which is a drop of 5 - 6 points as she's usually getting 75 - 76 when she's clean with ultra-c in Russia so she's at a deficit from her usual marks.
In contrast the former Japanese World Champion with mistakes on easier triples/doubles at her own nationals last season only drops by 1- 2 or so points from her best inflated National PCS with zero ultra-c ever performed. At Kinoshita one of her worst FS events this season she drops by 1 point in PCS compared to her Worlds PCS. Not by a massive 5 - 6 points like Adeliia did today.
Even the reigning US national Champion at Worlds in an error filled free and a fall only dropped 1 - 2 points from her best PCS not a severe 5 - 6 points like the Russian judges did for Adeliia for making errors.
Last season's European champion in a regressed form right now post achilles tendon surgery, this season, only scored 1 point less in PCS at Estonian Nationals compared to her peak/strongest form in her European gold winning skate, and also scored 1 point more in PCS than her last year's nationals where she was stronger.
None of these women who are "favorites" at home get heavily slashed by 5 - 6 points from their best even with major errors like Adeliia just did by Russian judges. Majority lose 1 - 3 points at most in PCS from their very best PCS at nationals. Adeliia's PCS in the free did get hit harder than most top skating favorites at their own Nats in comparison when they make mistakes.
That being said...
Adele got 66.07 PCS from judges at international Milano when she was in worse physical condition, freshly injured, and yes skated clean with a mesmerizing performance garnering over 500,000+ views with high praise in the comments on social media. But still this was with weaker tech than today at Russian Nationals.
In the FS despite her mistakes on her utlra-c due to her nerves, she was stronger in her triples than Milano, in terms of PCS she is in better physical shape here as well as she is faster/sharper than in Milano. Her PCS should be higher than Milano's FS (especially with the tech upgrade) yet at the same time it should still be less than last year's Rus Nats PCS (which it was) where she skated cleanly with ultra-c at 76 PCS.
Milano was overall a better viewing experience only for the free skate (the short program at RUS nats was miles away and by far better than Milano) since she skated it cleanly. However her FS was only clean in Milano as she had zero risky ultra-c elements there unlike today. She could have played it safe here, but chose to go for the risk. Despite her 3A and 4T failing, I highly respect her for even attempting ultra-c in the free.
At Russian Nats compared to Milano Petrosian got an extra +3.52 points in PCS.
70.19 PCS with ultra-c vs 66.07 PCS without ultra-c, but overall it fell short of her best as she ultimately got nearly 6 points less than her best form at Rus Nats.
In contrast at one point the current US national champ was scoring 61 - 63 in PCS for a long time internationally despite this fact, the US Judges gave 70+ PCS at her home US Nats. She had an error filled FS on easier jump passes yet received an almost 7-10 point boost in PCS at home that she wasn't getting internationally for a long time.
Furthermore, even if Adeliia is given this "64 in PCS" that another user randomly threw out there (which honestly is far too low for an Adeliia Petrosian senior level skater with ultra-c. See #10 at worlds who imploded on easier jumps 2023/2024 season and scored 65 in PCS) she'd still break 230+ winning anyway and would still be over 140+ in the free. In fact with a low 64 in PCS she'd be at around 144 for her free skate.
I'd still have Adeliia over Alisa since she is the stronger of the two. If Alisa wanted to win she'd put a 3A in the short program, just like how Adeliia declared a 2A, but upgraded to 3A in the short. If Adeliia did not change that Layout Alisa would be the champion.
A funny note! I saw a comment saying her free skate is at "most 130 - 133 at the olympics."
To be clear to everyone that is impossible. The math is not mathing.
To reach this very low 130 - 133 with her high level tech Petrosian would need to get 49 - 52 in PCS which is difficult to achieve even for the most poor/mediocre of senior skaters at World level events. Even a skater at 20th place at worlds falling over the ice on easier triples/doubles would score more than 49 in PCS (around 54 PCS that 20th place skater got by the way). This is surely a hater's dream for Adeliia, but not reality. Let them dream though.....
Base values mean nothing when tech controllers are purposely giving "q" on obviously underrotated and downgraded jumps. Also, PCS. Is automatically lowered with falls.
No, I said her PCS would be around 64 with the fall. She would have lost 3.5 points with underrotated 3a with correct tech calling, and 2.6 points on downgraded 4t with correct tech calling. In addition, a loss of 2 goe for uncalled edge call on 3lz, and loss of 2 goe for uncalled q on triple toe in 3f/3t. That's a total loss of almost 17 points without accounting for Nationals inflated GOE.Adeliia killed it in the SP with her 3A
I'd still have her at 85+ for an amazing SP performance with a backloaded triple triple combo upgraded with a triple axel.
In her SP she is far ahead majority of the international skaters who have serious under rotation issues on triples/doubles with questionable reputation scoring too since some of them score almost 70+ with invalid 2Lz's or popped 2F combos in a short. Petrosian is head/shoulders above that especially in her short at Rus Nats.
To make it easier to read I bolded my key points.
Regarding her free skate. The scoring for her is fair. Some people do not know how to do the math or simply aren't doing the math and it shows....
Adeliia had a BV of 74.65 at Russian Nationals vs 63.23 at International Milano olympic qualifying comp.
She upgraded her BV by +11.42 points.
She got 5.59 GOE maximum at Russian Nationals vs 11.61 GOE at International Milano olympic qualifying comp.
A loss of - 6.02 bonus points. Russian judges for her free skate did not give her more points in GOE than Milano. They did the opposite.
So she got better GOE from international judges at her Milano Free skate with +11 points total GOE boost compared with the Russian judges capping her at +5 points total.
She lost more than half her GOE boost for the risks she took---and still made it to 149-150+
Do you guys know how much GOE the former Japanese world champion and the current US world champion need to reach 149 in a free skate if given 70 in PCS like Adeliia with their own tech at the moment?
They need/require over +18 to +20 points in GOE or else they will never see 149+ in any free skate. If they got 5 points GOE like Adeliia and 70 PCS they wouldn't even break 140. For example, take the world champion's winning BV of 63.34 + Adeliia's 5.59 GOE + 70.19 in PCS = 139.12 maximum for that world champ.
Japanese skater #5 at the Grand prix final with +10 in GOE still could not touch 140+ even with that higher GOE and even if they gave her Adeliia's 70.19 she'd max out at 138 nowhere near 149.
Adeliia is in a completely different level as 5 points in GOE is enough to see 149+ (she got 150 but a -1 extra mandatory deduction for the fall brought her to 149).
Ultra-c Adeliia with negatives/punished on her errors and a low GOE total will still output higher numbers in the free which majority of the skaters internationally cannot do at this point in time. She's simply too powerful even with mistakes.
Her 3A step-out was hit with -3's and -4's.
Her 4T fall was hit with -5's across the board.
Her 2T pop was hit with -1's and 0's.
There were no bonus points given for any jumps with major errors. All negative for Adeliia yet...
Her saving grace is that she's a powerful back-loader in addition to having ultra-c. She did not fall on any non-ultra c jumps.
She racked up almost 40 points in the second half on jumps alone whereas a skater like for example, the reigning world champ, at best racks up a max of 25-27 points in the back-half. Adeliia is far stronger technically than the vast majority.
Back to her PCS....
She got 70 in PCS from judges at Russian Nationals which is a drop of 5 - 6 points as she's usually getting 75 - 76 when she's clean with ultra-c in Russia so she's at a deficit from her usual marks.
In contrast the former Japanese World Champion with mistakes on easier triples/doubles at her own nationals last season only drops by 1- 2 or so points from her best inflated National PCS with zero ultra-c ever performed. At Kinoshita one of her worst FS events this season she drops by 1 point in PCS compared to her Worlds PCS. Not by a massive 5 - 6 points like Adeliia did today.
Even the reigning US national Champion at Worlds in an error filled free and a fall only dropped 1 - 2 points from her best PCS not a severe 5 - 6 points like the Russian judges did for Adeliia for making errors.
Last season's European champion in a regressed form right now post achilles tendon surgery, this season, only scored 1 point less in PCS at Estonian Nationals compared to her peak/strongest form in her European gold winning skate, and also scored 1 point more in PCS than her last year's nationals where she was stronger.
None of these women who are "favorites" at home get heavily slashed by 5 - 6 points from their best even with major errors like Adeliia just did by Russian judges. Majority lose 1 - 3 points at most in PCS from their very best PCS at nationals. Adeliia's PCS in the free did get hit harder than most top skating favorites at their own Nats in comparison when they make mistakes.
That being said...
Adele got 66.07 PCS from judges at international Milano when she was in worse physical condition, freshly injured, and yes skated clean with a mesmerizing performance garnering over 500,000+ views with high praise in the comments on social media. But still this was with weaker tech than today at Russian Nationals.
In the FS despite her mistakes on her utlra-c due to her nerves, she was stronger in her triples than Milano, in terms of PCS she is in better physical shape here as well as she is faster/sharper than in Milano. Her PCS should be higher than Milano's FS (especially with the tech upgrade) yet at the same time it should still be less than last year's Rus Nats PCS (which it was) where she skated cleanly with ultra-c at 76 PCS.
Milano was overall a better viewing experience only for the free skate (the short program at RUS nats was miles away and by far better than Milano) since she skated it cleanly. However her FS was only clean in Milano as she had zero risky ultra-c elements there unlike today. She could have played it safe here, but chose to go for the risk. Despite her 3A and 4T failing, I highly respect her for even attempting ultra-c in the free.
At Russian Nats compared to Milano Petrosian got an extra +3.52 points in PCS.
70.19 PCS with ultra-c vs 66.07 PCS without ultra-c, but overall it fell short of her best as she ultimately got nearly 6 points less than her best form at Rus Nats.
In contrast at one point the current US national champ was scoring 61 - 63 in PCS for a long time internationally despite this fact, the US Judges gave 70+ PCS at her home US Nats. She had an error filled FS on easier jump passes yet received an almost 7-10 point boost in PCS at home that she wasn't getting internationally for a long time.
Furthermore, even if Adeliia is given this "64 in PCS" that another user randomly threw out there (which honestly is far too low for an Adeliia Petrosian senior level skater with ultra-c. See #10 at worlds who imploded on easier jumps 2023/2024 season and scored 65 in PCS) she'd still break 230+ winning anyway and would still be over 140+ in the free. In fact with a low 64 in PCS she'd be at around 144 for her free skate.
I'd still have Adeliia over Alisa since she is the stronger of the two. If Alisa wanted to win she'd put a 3A in the short program, just like how Adeliia declared a 2A, but upgraded to 3A in the short. If Adeliia did not change that Layout Alisa would be the champion.
A funny note! I saw a comment saying her free skate is at "most 130 - 133 at the olympics."
To be clear to everyone that is impossible. The math is not mathing.
To reach this very low 130 - 133 with her high level tech Petrosian would need to get 49 - 52 in PCS which is difficult to achieve even for the most poor/mediocre of senior skaters at World level events. Even a skater at 20th place at worlds falling over the ice on easier triples/doubles would score more than 49 in PCS (around 54 PCS that 20th place skater got by the way). This is surely a hater's dream for Adeliia, but not reality. Let them dream though.....
Wow, your imagination runs wild with inventions. Also, 4A??? What????
I meant 4t. Sorry. By Milano, I assume you mean Beijing. Of course her overall GOE was higher in Beijing with no falls or q's, even with Nationals inflation. She lost 4.75 GOE on the 4t alone! As for the PCS, she scored 66.07 in Beijing with a squeaky clean seven triple long program. Under IJS rules PCS must be lowered for falls. A clean program scores higher PCS than a more ambitious program with falls, and pops.
Because she skated clean. A fall is a fall and a step-out a step-out - Even a generous panel can do very little about that.
