2026 Olympics Team Event speculation | Page 8 | Golden Skate

2026 Olympics Team Event speculation

I think it has to do with some of the inconsistencies in the fall, especially with Maddie. Maddie did struggle, but I think she got back on track once she switched back to the Lion King (and got the rights resolved since that had to be a lot of stress too.) Having a short program that she loves helps.

Lorine may be perceived as more consistent, but her ceiling is lower than Maddie's ceiling with a similar layout in the short. Lorine's PB in the short from 2025 WTT, where she went clean, scored close to Maddie. And that was Maddie with a fall on her 3Lo. Maddie with a mistake in the short at Finlandia outscored mostly clean Lorine in the short (Lorine got a q on her 3Lz in the combo.) I would bet on Maddie going above Lorine since she can outscore her while making a mistake.

Then there's Adam and Kevin who have higher ceilings than Gogolev and have both made GPF. But they've had their own issues with consistency and injury this season. I think either one would probably go above Gogolev in the short, but they could go below him too.
Fair but the advantage in pairs is considerable for Canada.
 
Fair but the advantage in pairs is considerable for Canada.
Definitely, I didn't go into it because of that advantage.

Looking at it, I'd have Canada over France in Pairs and Women, France over Canada in Men. Ice Dance will depend entirely on which team does the RD for France. If it is Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron in the RD, the placement gap between them and Gilles/Poirier likely won't be as large as it will likely be in Pairs.
 
Interesting that today Japan had a departure ceremony for the Winter Olympic athletes. In attendance from figure skating are Kaori, Yuma, Shun, and Utaya/Masaya. A preview for the team event members...........? Last time in 2022 the skaters who departed in a group to Beijing were also the team event members (Kaori, Wakaba, Shoma, Yuma).

 
Definitely, I didn't go into it because of that advantage.

Looking at it, I'd have Canada over France in Pairs and Women, France over Canada in Men. Ice Dance will depend entirely on which team does the RD for France. If it is Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron in the RD, the placement gap between them and Gilles/Poirier likely won't be as large as it will likely be in Pairs.
from earlier this season, I thought Lopareva-Brissaud had said they were skating the team event. In that case, the advantage is even higher
 
I heard a rumour that after Europeans, Cizeron and FB are considering doing the RD portion to test themselves out with the judges via CB prior to the individual event.
that would be a smart thing to do for them, getting feedback from the tech panel and judges... and if they place ahead, having a psychological advantage.
 
that would be a smart thing to do for them, getting feedback from the tech panel and judges... and if they place ahead, having a psychological advantage.
They really have nothing to lose, and only to gain.

If they place below, no big deal that’s how it has been all season. But if they overtake them, it will make a statement about the individual gold.
 
They really have nothing to lose, and only to gain.

If they place below, no big deal that’s how it has been all season. But if they overtake them, it will make a statement about the individual gold.
It also has no effect really on the other teams concerned like Georgia Italy and Canada who would most likely all place below the French team number 1... so their point differential between one another stays the same. It could have a minor impact on the Japan-USA fight as the French placing ahead of US would lower USA's today by one point versus Japan, expected to place behind both teams already.

FBC"s participation, combined with all the right skates from their singles could however make a difference to qualify in the top 5, gathering 3 or 4 more points than Lopareva-Brissaud would earn in the RD. So in that sense, it still does potentially have an impact on the event.
 
The Pairs feels a big unknown right now with question marks over the fitness of 3 of the teams.

China is not likely to qualify for the Free but even in 4CC shape Sui & Han can finish quite high on SP and play spoiler. Italy and Japan really needs their top Pairs team to do both segments. I will be eager to see practice reports in a few days time.
 
The Pairs feels a big unknown right now with question marks over the fitness of 3 of the teams.

China is not likely to qualify for the Free but even in 4CC shape Sui & Han can finish quite high on SP and play spoiler. Italy and Japan really needs their top Pairs team to do both segments. I will be eager to see practice reports in a few days time.

Coming off injury, I can see why Japan may be splitting Pairs based on speculation from the group departure photo. Miura/Kihara have a good chance at winning individual gold and Nagaoka/Moriguchi are more solid this season. It would probably be a safe split for them in the free. Italy, I'm mixed about whether a split would be safe or not. It'll definitely be interesting to see the practice reports.
 
Coming off injury, I can see why Japan may be splitting Pairs based on speculation from the group departure photo. Miura/Kihara have a good chance at winning individual gold and Nagaoka/Moriguchi are more solid this season. It would probably be a safe split for them in the free. Italy, I'm mixed about whether a split would be safe or not. It'll definitely be interesting to see the practice reports.
Italy shouldn't split pairs.
 
I agree.
It is taking some serious mathing to work out what might happen
I don't know that any amount of mathing is really going to help.

Gold and Silver are Japan and US

Bronze could really go a lot of different ways depending on who skates each segment.

Also, what is the tie breaker for the 5 teams that advance. In my inital predictions I had CAN/FRA both with 22 points, if FB/C skate.
 
Canada will put their best skaters in the SP
Maddie
Stephen
Piper and Paul
Deanna and Max

then, if they qualify for the LP
Maddie and Stephen have to skate for sure.

But depending who else qualifies and how close it is, Canada may bet on keeping Piper and Paul as well as Deanna and Max for the long programs. Italy has a strong pair and dance team and Canada needs to pass them to earn a medal. Georgia has a strong pair too and their dance team is good but not as strong. Canada could use LaLa there and still be ahead of Georgia but would lose to Italy. So it will depend on scores.
Of course, considering Trennt and Lia are "usually" better jumpers and that the axel sequence is a 10 point element and crucial in the Long Program, they could be chosen for the LP but I doubt they would place ahead of either Georgia or Italy, unless these made major mistakes. They just do not get as high PCS internationally.

So if we had to decide in the dark right away, I'd say Canada would only use 1 entry per discipline this time around. On paper, if everyone skated well, that would be their only shot at a medal. However, it will be interesting to see how the points are distributed after the SP to see if Canada has the option to give an opportunity to their other entries.
This is what I am also figuring if all are clean. Mistakes will be the wild cards.
 
I don't know that any amount of mathing is really going to help.

Gold and Silver are Japan and US

Bronze could really go a lot of different ways depending on who skates each segment.

Also, what is the tie breaker for the 5 teams that advance. In my inital predictions I had CAN/FRA both with 22 points, if FB/C skate.
I have the feeling it would be the best result in one discipline... Which could be devastating for Canada in that case but I'm not sure.. calling @saine to the rescue
 
Even though I can not in good faith take the 'team' event seriously, I foresee Japan winning gold, the US silver, and Italy (country bonus?) bronze. Mostly, I hope that none of the 'team' skaters who are also skating in the individual programs get hurt/don't get enough rest before they have to skate their individual programs. It will be especially hard on the Ice Dancers and Men, and I can't help but think the schedule was intentionally set up to be particularly hard for them; it's easy to look at the schedule and imagine a much more fair arrangement.

I honestly don't mind to whomever the 'team' medals get distributed, to whatever countries. All I want is for there to be no injuries caused from skaters trying to 'do' too much too soon, if that makes sense.

I may or may not get to view any of the 'team' events; it depends on whether or not I can get Canada's CBC Sports to work for me this time. I am unlikely to be awake in order to watch anything 'live' on the qq channel, should anything be aired there. Guess I'll read about it all later.
 
Looking around I found an Olympic Team Event Simulator on another site if anyone is interested
https://www.another site.com/r/Figu...ted_an_olympic_team_event_simulator_to_share/
 
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