- Joined
- Jan 23, 2022
Eh, we'll see. I am saying this not on random emotion, but based on interesting stats from this season. Let's get into my mini analysis
This is the first time team Moi has caught my attention while team Plush, team Tut and team Davi all had it for a long time. So I am excited!
Let me break down what we've got so far up until now in 2024 (could change by Spartakiad but unlikely):
Team Davi has zero successful senior women. Samodelkina would have been the main one but she left the moment she turned senior and had a terrible senior season anyways so...can't count her.
Team Plush only has one successful senior woman overall and she only has a semi-stable 3A to date. He coached Sasha semi-successfully (by 2021 Nats she skated clean with 3 quads against Anna and Kami so he did do a good job somewhat) and failed completely with trying to get Aliona to jump any ultra-c (some of this had to do with Aliona herself, but still).
Team Tut has/had about seven successful senior women with ultra-c (Anna, Sasha, Aliona, Elizabet T, Maiia , Kami, and Adeliia) capable of landing it multiple times in comp. She's had the most and highly consistent ultra-c skaters but to be fair she's been at this ultra-c game the longest compared to everyone else (except maybe Davidov?) so of course her girl squad will be the strongest squad.
Team Moi has zero. Moi's first successes with ultra-c skaters to my knowledge are her current juniors (Sofia D, Alena P, Milana L). None are senior yet so we can't gage the Moi girls success rate in comparison to the Davi girls who sadly failed so far, or the Plush girls which is mainly Mura, or Team Tut girls with non-stop dominance. It's a clean slate against the track record of Davi girls and Plush girls.
Moi has the highest potential as the wild card rival coach due to zero history of success or failure of ultra-c skaters by the senior level (if there are Moi girls in seniors with ultra-c at the moment do let me know as I wasn't following her main skaters other than Prineva) while the other two potential rivals for Team Tut have not been very successful in having a team of girls able to rival the main Tut quadsters. The Moi girls could end up unsuccessful just like the Davi and Plush girls in the next few seasons or end up succeeding we don't know, but I see potential so I'll be paying more attention to this rising team of girls.
In the scenarios above do note I didn't count Zhilina or Sofia A or Daria S because honestly they aren't truly senior, but if added Eteri would have 9 while Plush still has only 1 considering Zhilina had zero senior starts/comps yet so we can't gage her success rate at the senior level only the junior level.
However I will talk about Zhilina and the "Zhilina tier" further down
Both Plush and Davi had more years from juniors to now seniors with their main ultra-c star(s) who are senior eligible (Samodelkina and Muravieva). They unfortunately do not have successful quad jumpers at the senior level and the junior level has remained unstable for many years with this season being the worst for Plush's former top skater Titova who wasn't even at Nationals and Davi's Maria is still trying to hold on but not successfully.
Here's what's working for Team Moi in terms of ultra-c and becoming a potential "slow burn" rival for Team Tut instead of Plush girls at the moment:
Moi girl stats:
All 3 of the Moi girls (Alena, Milana, Dzepka) crossed over 200+ points this season in comp and averaged higher scoring than most Plush girls at the 200 mark. Plush's top girl this season Kira has not surpassed 200 yet.
Alena's season best was 216 at 2nd GP. (not fully clean)
Milana's season best was 213 at Moscow champs (with her suspicious 4S. It was not clean for me)
Dzepka's season best was 210 (clean but without ultra-c) at Junior Nats.
Plush girls stats:
Kira's season best was 199 (without ultra-c) at Junior Nats with 2 clean programs. It seems she are not on the same "Tier" as Dzepka without ultras.
Sofia Titova's season best with multiple ultra-c last season was 207. And with the most ultra-c elements of her entire career she could only reach 200 at max (mind-blowing it's so low). This season Titova at best without ultra-c was also at 207 at an earlier local comp which is less than all of Moi's girls at their highest this season.
Maria Mazur's best was 201 at Moscow city champs (ultra-c but not clean so could be higher when clean).
Alisa was 201 at stage 5 (with ultra-c but not clean so could be higher).
The Moi girls are competing at 210+ when attempting their higher level "close enough to clean" skates this season. Based on this stat they are trying to challenge the top Tut girls who are rocking massive scores at 228+, 230+, 245+ when at their best level. Team Tut girls are untouchable at their best but not impossible to reach if the Moi girls perform clean at their best with ultra-c (that still hasn't happened which is why their true potential is unknown and they are wild cards). They are not aiming to challenge this season's top Plush girl right now who is pushing 199 at best with two clean skates as they surpassed this themselves. They are aiming for the Tut girls who are so high up at the top of the podium when in top form. It'll be tough, but again I'm excited to see if they even can do this.
More breakdown:
Moi girl #1 Prineva (the most successful Moi girl in juniors right now):
1. Alena Prineva prior to her meltdown at Junior Nationals was beating all the Plush girls at all her GP's. She already surpassed them easily at both of her GP's and beat top Tut girls at Novice Nationals taking silver (Elena was gold, Alena was silver, and Margarita was bronze). She only lost to Tut girl Margarita at the GP stages this season not the Plush girls. Kira is the strongest Plush girl this season compared to Mazur and Yurova (Jurova?). She already beat a clean Kira Trofimova back in stage one (even with a fall, a messy combo, no axel jump, etc). An unclean messy Alena can beat a clean Kira as long as she doesn't implode in both the short and free like she did at Nationals. Her competition in most big comps this season when close enough to clean are mainly Eteri girls not Plush girls based on her actual results against them in the main stages.
- Her main rival this season was mainly Margarita (though Tut girl Alisa leveled up and proved herself this season). The Plush girls of current aren't able to reach her highest score this season or last season themselves when at their best. So really Alena is her own enemy with so many errors (Zayaking, failing the 4Lz, and overall inconsistent). Alena is also one of the most artistic skaters in the juniors division right now.
- The comparison with "Zhilina tier" artistically is off, because Zhilina has practically little to no performance ability in terms of expression and projection which Alena has. Aesthetically speaking Zhilina's style is sharp while Alena's is soft. Artistically they aren't the same as Alena knows how to actually emote to the music she's given while Zhilina seldom does this. Her face is often rigid and serious throughout. Hyper focused. Zhilina is highly skilled and has some very good points in terms of execution but emotional projection is one of her biggest weaknesses. She has very little acting ability. No one should aim for that tier in their artistry unless they are playing a heavily emotionless character. Also Prineva is just as artistic as Muravieva. Mura has a different look to how she performs (none of the most artistic ladies look the same) but Prineva is just as strong of a performer and has just as much of a beautiful glide/flow on the ice. I don't like to debate artistic prowess because it's not a one size fits all. There's a lot of nuances and subjectivity regarding who's style is better than who's varying from individual to individual. Muravieva is very good and Alena Prineva is just as good when watching them side by side. You may feel free to disagree of course.
- Now let's address this overall "Zhilina Tier" hype in actual competition: Did we forget that Alina G from a "random" coach could easily beat Zhilina with a single quad salchow last season at Junior Nationals? I don't think Alena Prineva has to worry about being "Zhilina Tier". In fact she should run far away from that tier based on how easily Alina Gorbacheva was able to beat Zhilina who attempted 1 triple axel and 3 quads last season at Junior Nationals. 4 ultra-c attempts yet just one quad is enough to surpass that. Alena Prineva should be fixing her bad habit of Zayaking or work on her jump math so she doesn't forget to do an axel jump and fix her consistency issues with her 4Lz while avoiding being on that "Zhilina tier" entirely where 4 ultra-c elements are not enough to even win against one. By Alina G standards skaters can now easily beat a multi-quad "Zhilina Tier" level skater with a single 4S! The Russian judges clearly let us know what tier Zhilina was on last season at Nats so Alena only needs to throw in one 4Lz with two clean programs just like Alina G last season based on that "Zhilina tier." Seriously though, tier joking aside, no one is invincible. Anyone can potentially beat anyone even Zhilina who was defeated by surprise newcomer Alina G. I did not expect that at all last season. Getting on a "Tier" of a certain skater is not necessary at all to beat them.
2. Sofia Dzepka without ultra-c at the moment can surpass most girls without ultra-c (outside of Agata at GP stage 6 who honestly with her very tight jump landings shouldn't even be up that high at all. She'll end up struggling like Samodura with those tight jumps if it doesn't improve). Her new 4S is just as unstable as Kira's new 4T (we saw at the jumping comp), but it looked much better than Kira's attempt in practice. She's proven to be more stable in competition overall with her triples than Kira when looking at their stats this season. Given the fact that most Team Tut girls have extremely stable triples before acquiring their quads this is a good look for Dzepka with more solid triples in competition compared to rival Plush girl Kira this season. Artistically speaking I would also choose Kira over Sofia D since she's more my style. Her glide, the emotional drama, etc. Kira is a great performer and amazing artistically. I'd have her at #1 and Alena P at #2 for the most artistic juniors this season. Though in jumps Dzepka is more solid so I have to give Team Moi the edge. I don't know how I feel about Dzepka artistically, but she has room to grow on me eventually.
- Also:
If we go with this logic of being "confident enough" the same could be said for Plush's girl Kira who wasn't confident enough to do a 4T to try for a medal at Nats. Or Muravieva who wasn't confident enough to attempt three triple axels when it could have maybe potentially changed her win from silver to gold (and she really wanted to win gold against Petrosian). To be fair maybe she thought Petrosian would land everything clean so she didn't bother with a 3A for gold (because if Petrosian landed that 4F clean the extra 3A would make no difference, but Petrosian fell anyways so that 3A would have potentially helped secure gold).
Many skaters play it safe to secure a better placement especially when it comes to new unstable jumps as it's a gamble. Sofia D has never landed her 4S in competition this season at all only practice so gambling to land it at the biggest competition of the season would be the worst decision ever. She'd have to try it at least at the GP's first or a local comp to assess her success rate in competition. The same case can be made for Kira's new 4T (it's looking better as of her recent practice. I'll attach the vid when I can. It looks really good now so things are looking up for her soon) however the same cannot be said for Mura who has acquired 3A for several years and gaged her success rate with her 3A but still did not go for 3 triple axels when it mattered most after successfully landing two of them. - At the jumping comp Kira's landing on 4T was much scarier (and looked more painful. She had to pause for a moment after that hard fall) than Sofia's 4S along with her worse two foot landing in her first 4T video in practice compared to the ease of Sofia's 4S + 2T in practice which is why I said it's "extremely unstable." It was a worse fall for Kira on 4T at the jumping comp and it had me worried for a moment but she's fine now in her latest attempt in practice (it's on her telegram it looks very good!)
Moi girl #3 Ledbedeva (the initial shocker of the season):
3. She is the in a way the least powerful of the three so far from what I've seen, but at the start of the season she was hinted to be the most powerful junior surpassing both Alena and Margarita. Honestly, I have not paid much attention to Milana as compared to Prineva or even Dzepka (she's new to me too this season, but Milana is newer). She is very inconsistent with her 4S and even her 3-3's. But....
- Milana at the start of this season at the Moscow Championships with a 4S beat Team Tut's top girl Margarita who attempted one 3A and 3 quads. Beat teammates Sofia Dzepka (who did not do ultra-c) and Alena Prineva who attempted a 4Lz+3T and 4Lz. Also beat Eteri girls Andreeva and Lushkova (4S) at that comp along with Plushenko's Maria Mazur (Plush's Mazur ranked #2 in the short while she was #1). She won first place against everyone at the Moscow Championships with a single ultra-c element (and that 4S attempt wasn't great either) and she's not a Plush or Eteri girl. She's a Moi girl. If she can skate two clean programs with a single 4S (a suspicious 4S) the judges let us know she has the potential surpass everyone even Tut girls (and she beat multiple). She was leading in the short with the highest PCS of all the girls there at that first comp. First impression of the season and she impressed those judges over all of the other skaters. Too bad she couldn't upkeep the bar she set for herself. After that first comp of the season her consistency regressed. She removed the backloaded two 3-3's and did a 3-2 at Nats. Went from only the 4S being unstable to messing up her triples as the season progressed (At that rapid pace and even watering down her content of backloaded 3Lz+3T+2A and 3Lz+3T I suspect an undisclosed injury for her). So...her initial reputation went down from her first impression this season (can she bounce back next season? I want to find out).
- She lost to Plush's top girl Kira by 0.12 points at Nats after reducing her jumps and messing up the combo in the short with a q. The gap is way too tiny. The win for Kira wasn't by huge margins but tiny tenths. With both clean Milana would have won (Keep in mind Kira had two clean skates for 199.22 while Milana had negative GOE for her short program combo getting 199.10).
- Also:
- I already covered the "confidence" thing, though Milana Lebedva finally realized what she should have all along.... she would fail her 4S with a capital "F" as she has been messing up the 4S all season after her first comp. Not putting it in at Nationals was great because it would 100% fail like it did most of this season (falling 4 out of 5 attempts are terrible odds). A good idea to not put it in considering it was never successful and at best...suspicious.
Based on competition the Moi girls have shown they are more than capable of beating multiple of the current Tut girls including their top skater Margarita with Milina in the beginning defeating everyone on the first try this season at the championships (before her suspected injury and regression)---I think Team Moi has the highest potential as a wild card to challenge Teamtut as they can defeat many of her skaters already when "clean enough" (none of the Moi girls skated at their best except Prineva last season with 291 at Novice Nats) but we'll see as the girls progress.
Due to this info throughout this season and seeing higher scoring for Moi girls over Plush girls overall they seem to be the impending rival team that the judges are pushing over the Plush girls to ultimately compete against Tut girls. When both team of girls are clean or both push top content they are pushing for Moi girls over Plush girls. They are valuing the Moi girls more. Judges even tried to their best to score Alena over Margarita at that early comp where Milana won but Alena keeps Zayaking so they had to rescore and Alena went from 2nd place to 4th after someone complained that they ignored Alena's Zayak. That's how Margarita won 2nd, because Alena was caught for Zayaking herself.
Team Tut are able to get their girls to the highest level when it counts most. No other team can do that to the same level yet, but anything is possible in the future. I'm watching out for the Moi girls as a potential threat in the future.
I do think Team Moi on the rise. Her method is still very new to me along with her girls (other than Prineva), but I see potential as they are already surpassing majority of the Plush girls in top scores alone this season.
).
) can get herself together by Spartakiad to rival Adeliia with a 3A (didn't she say she had one? We still haven't seen it) and two quad salchows. I know all her ultra-c jumps are all less stable than Mura and Daria, but since Mura won't be there as a challenger anymore Alina is kind of the next one in line (I don't know if Daria S can step up to the plate yet. Seems promising though if she skates clean).
