2026 Olympics Team Event speculation

[SubRosa]

Should be safe for USA to field Zingas / Kolesnik in the FD. They are quite capable of beating any of Lopareva / Brissaud, Lajoie / Lagha, and Davis / Smolkin.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Just wondering. Can Italy switch out Guinard and Fabrri for dance. and girls.

If not
I think the team would be Lara Naka Gutman, switch the men Daniel and Matteo, switch pairs Conti and Macii and Guinard and Fabbri.

 

[SmileHappy34]

My U.S. team would be switching pairs and men, with the women doing both.
I don't see the u.s. women including Isabella finishing lower than 2nd in team
The dance could either be Emila and Vadymn, or Christine and Anthony. Surprisingly C/P have the higher scores .
E/V have the momentum this year.
I would save Ilia, Madison and Evan, and Alysa for individuals events

However Amber seems like she would thrive in team event. She would have team support

 

[SmileHappy34]

I think Canada be safe to switch their pairs and dance since Kevin and Maddies has to do both. It which two teams

 

[4everchan]

I think Canada be safe to switch their pairs and dance since Kevin and Maddies has to do both. It which two teams

Canada will put their best skaters in the SP
Maddie
Stephen
Piper and Paul
Deanna and Max

then, if they qualify for the LP
Maddie and Stephen have to skate for sure.

But depending who else qualifies and how close it is, Canada may bet on keeping Piper and Paul as well as Deanna and Max for the long programs. Italy has a strong pair and dance team and Canada needs to pass them to earn a medal. Georgia has a strong pair too and their dance team is good but not as strong. Canada could use LaLa there and still be ahead of Georgia but would lose to Italy. So it will depend on scores.
Of course, considering Trennt and Lia are "usually" better jumpers and that the axel sequence is a 10 point element and crucial in the Long Program, they could be chosen for the LP but I doubt they would place ahead of either Georgia or Italy, unless these made major mistakes. They just do not get as high PCS internationally.

So if we had to decide in the dark right away, I'd say Canada would only use 1 entry per discipline this time around. On paper, if everyone skated well, that would be their only shot at a medal. However, it will be interesting to see how the points are distributed after the SP to see if Canada has the option to give an opportunity to their other entries.

 

[FlossieH]

Just wondering. Can Italy switch out Guinard and Fabrri for dance. and girls.

If not
I think the team would be Lara Naka Gutman, switch the men Daniel and Matteo, switch pairs Conti and Macii and Guinard and Fabbri.

They can make two changes between the programmes in the team event, but can only select skaters who are participating in the main events. Italy have only qualified one lady and one ice dance team, so the only changes they can make in the team event are men and pairs. They might use both Daniel Grassl and Matteo Rizzo in the team event. I don't think they would use Ghilardi and Ambrosini if they are in medal contention in the team event, because Conti and Macii are much more consistent.

 

[Dreamer57]

It will be interesting what Italy do about the Men's selections. Rizzo is generally better in the Free but performed well in both segments in Sheffield and Grassl was OK but not great in Short and then completely imploded in the Free. Good luck to the Italian selectors on solving that conundrum

I prefer Matteo's skating but I would say Daniel for the short, because he has higher base value and he is national champion.

Can't see Lajoie/Lagha dancing the FD when they need to beat Guignard/Fabbri and Team Canada needs all the points...I would think they stick to a single team for all disciplines. Except maybe pairs, but Stellato/Deschamps could do with practising their free (especially if they choose to go back to Interview with vampire )

 

[Ziotic]

Canada will put their best skaters in the SP
Maddie
Stephen
Piper and Paul
Deanna and Max

then, if they qualify for the LP
Maddie and Stephen have to skate for sure.

But depending who else qualifies and how close it is, Canada may bet on keeping Piper and Paul as well as Deanna and Max for the long programs. Italy has a strong pair and dance team and Canada needs to pass them to earn a medal. Georgia has a strong pair too and their dance team is good but not as strong. Canada could use LaLa there and still be ahead of Georgia but would lose to Italy. So it will depend on scores.
Of course, considering Trennt and Lia are "usually" better jumpers and that the axel sequence is a 10 point element and crucial in the Long Program, they could be chosen for the LP but I doubt they would place ahead of either Georgia or Italy, unless these made major mistakes. They just do not get as high PCS internationally.

So if we had to decide in the dark right away, I'd say Canada would only use 1 entry per discipline this time around. On paper, if everyone skated well, that would be their only shot at a medal. However, it will be interesting to see how the points are distributed after the SP to see if Canada has the option to give an opportunity to their other entries.

I think Canada switches pairs.

P/M won nationals and S/D are, well, old.

I think they stick with G/P if a medal is possible.

Also, USA would be foolish to sub their dance unless C/B demand it.

Their # 2 would be behind Italy and Canada.

 

[SmileHappy34]

If the United States wants to win the Team Gold medal. They cannot afford it to be lost , taken away, out of their control in short program.
Too many other countries can gain a sizeable lead in short that U.S. if makes it to Free Skate can't make up. (Japan, Italy, and Georgia). They have great men , pairs, and dance. Japan has all 4.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Alot is putting Chock and Bates and Ilia in short.
I didn't.

Take them out the dance is somewhat affected but not much. They will make up points they lost in rhythm dance in their free dance. The men may not make it up.
The pairs are totally reliable on their skating which tend to be inconsistent.

 

[4everchan]

If the United States wants to win the Team Gold medal. They cannot afford it to be lost , taken away, out of their control in short program.
Too many other countries can gain a sizeable lead in short that U.S. if makes it to Free Skate can't make up. (Japan, Italy, and Georgia). They have great men , pairs, and dance. Japan has all 4.

Japan has a weaker dance team than most countries at the team event.

 

[SmileHappy34]

I think Canada switches pairs.

P/M won nationals and S/D are, well, old.

I think they stick with G/P if a medal is possible.

Also, USA would be foolish to sub their dance unless C/B demand it.

Their # 2 would be behind Italy and Canada.

I don't think the U.S # 2 dance team will be behind Canada, unless Giles and Poirer skate both. I don't see that happening.
I don't see Dudek- Stellato skating both programs.
The U.S. pair can beat Canada's #2.
That would be the toss up.
If Georgia makes to final , I don't see Georgia losing to either team nor Italy Conti and Macii if does free skate.
Both teams could lose to Japan #2 pair .
It would be foolish of Japan putting RM/RK for both. Why hurt chances for individual medal.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Japan has a weaker dance team than most countries at the team event.

But they are strong in the three other disciplines. Even Japan's #2 pair team could beat U.S. #2. I believe they have higher sbs and finished ahead of u.s. at 4 continents in short. U.S. made a mistake they didn't. The U.S. pair team are known for their mistakes

 

[4everchan]

Alot is putting Chock and Bates and Ilia in short.
I didn't.

The reason why the US should put CB and Malinin in the SP is to make sure they gain as many points as possible in the SP. This is where they cannot risk anything. A bad performance can happen to anyone, a fluke fall, or a pop.. or whatever, and in the SP, as ten teams are entered, the scoring goes from 10 to 1. So you gotta use your best skaters in the SP

Take them out the dance is somewhat affected but not much. They will make up points they lost in rhythm dance in their free dance. The men may not make it up.

You cannot really make up points in the LP/FD if you are very behind. Points go from 10-6. For instance, if USA decided to use Chock and Bates in the free dance.. (just an example as it's not likely they won't be used in the RD). and used Emilea and Vadym in the RD. Let's assume that France, Italy, Canada would all then place ahead of Emilea and Vadym. So, Emilea and Vadym would score 7 points at best. Japan would score 1 or 2 points. That's a big difference you may say but not that much compared to using Chock and Bates in the RD which would gain a much bigger advantage to the USA if they place first or second (10 or 9 points).

In the FD. Japan will most likely already score 6 points... there is not much ground to be made for the USA here if they didn't make it in the short, they maximum advantage in the LP is 4 points.

The pairs are totally reliable on their skating which tend to be inconsistent.

I think you mean that the pairs are unreliable. Especially the USA pairs. That's their weakness. However, as we have seen, all the pairs are struggling with consistency and injuries at this point. One important kicker is how Sui-Han will do. They could win the SP as they did at 4CC but then China will most likely not qualify for the LP. If they win the SP, it's not a big deal as everyone will be behind. However, if a team wins over China, and China is second, this is the sort of arithmetics that becomes interesting. For instance, in pairs, Japan could place 1st, then China, then Italy, then Georgia, then Canada, then USA and here, Japan would earn 10 points and the USA only 5 points. So China placing in between Japan and USA here would give one extra point advantage to Japan in that scenario.

Simply put : Pairs is make it or break it for the USA

For Japan, dance will be a big problem if they want gold. But if all their other skaters do what they are able to do, it could be close.

At this point, I think Italy and Georgia would be fighting for bronze but that will depend on placements of Canada. Canada could place so well compared to Italy in Georgia with great skates from everyone and could also be in the mix. It's really hard to predict.

 

[4everchan]

I don't think the U.S # 2 dance team will be behind Canada, unless Giles and Poirer skate both. I don't see that happening.

Piper and Paul will skate both. Do not underestimate LaLa. They have always beaten the US number 2 team in recent years except CPom last year... Emilea and Vadym are great but it's not guaranteed they can beat LaLa.

I don't see Dudek- Stellato skating both programs.

Canada decided at last olympics to use one entry per discipline. So it's possible. But Canada's number 2 team is actually now Canada's number 1 team as they won Nationals.

The U.S. pair can beat Canada's #2.

They can if they land all their release elements. Lia and Trennt used to have very nice SBS jumps which hasn't been the case this year but there were injuries and he got shingles as well... At Nationals, they did enough to win the Free and the title. Last year, they also had won the Free program at Nationals. I wouldn't underestimate them and I am sorry to say but the USA pairs are much more inconsistent, especially in the LPs.

That would be the toss up.
If Georgia makes to final , I don't see Georgia losing to either team nor Italy Conti and Macii if does free skate.
Both teams could lose to Japan #2 pair .
It would be foolish of Japan putting RM/RK for both. Why hurt chances for individual medal.

Again, it depends on conditioning and results of the SP. If Japan cares about the gold, they will not put their rookie pairs. I like them very much and they have great potential but that would be their first skate at the Olympics with a huge responsibility. Japan will also know that they are losing ground in dance. If I were leading the Japanese federation, I'd be careful in making switches. Switching single skaters is not a big problem for the Japanese because they have depth, but switching pairs may be.

 

[4everchan]

But they are strong in the three other disciplines. Even Japan's #2 pair team could beat U.S. #2. I believe they have higher sbs and finished ahead of u.s. at 4 continents in short. U.S. made a mistake they didn't. The U.S. pair team are known for their mistakes

The US pair team is stronger than the Japanese dance team. So that's really the difference.

SP prediction could be (and I am aware that some could go the other way around.. but just for fun)
Ilia 10 points
Amber or Alysa 9 points
Chock and Bates 10 points ( I doubt FBC will skate as France as no chance to make the Free)
US Pairs... let's say they do quite badly... they still would get about 5 points.


we USA would end up with 34 points

Japan
Yuma 9
Kaori or Ami 10
Dance 1 or 2 points
Pairs could be as high as 10 points

so we would have about 31 points.

So in that scenario, why would the Japanese take any risk ?

As a matter of fact, in that scenario, the USA should be careful about their switches too. Putting another man or Emilea and Vadym may be a big risk.

 

[Fetinia]

Assuming US substitute ice dance and men.

Ice Dance:
US >> Japan
US wins RD and #3 in FD (behind Italy and Canada), Japan is last in both
US 18 points
Japan 7 points
_______________
US + 11

Men:
US #1 > Japan
US #2 < Japan (#1 or #2)
US wins SP, Japan is second
Japan wins FP (US #2), US is 4th (Italy, Georgia ahead of US, maybe Canada too)
US 17 points
Japan 19 points
___________________
US + 9

Woman:
US = Japan
This is 50/50 scenario. My assumption each country wins one event regardless if substitution or not.
US 19 points
Japan 19 Points
_________________
US + 9 points

Pairs:
Us << Japan
Japan wins both SP and FP
US is 5th in SP, and 4th in FP (Italy, Georgia, China ahead in SP; Italy, Georgia, in FP, maybe Canada)
US 13 points
Japan 20 points
_______________________
US + 2 points

It seems like US can afford substitute either CB or IM, but it is risky to do both. US dance #2 may loose to Italy and Canada in FD losing 2 points. Substituting both can be done, but it would be very close, especially if US pair(s) bombs and lose to more than 4 teams in SP and be last in FP, and Japanese women win both events. I do not see US or Japan women placed lower than 2 in both events.
Of course Italy, Georgia and Canada fighting for the 3rd place may intervene, placing Italy or Georgia 1st in pairs (possible), or Italian, Georgian or Canadian man beating Japanese man in FD (unlikely).

I would substitute US men as it is more demanding program and higher risk for injury even Ilya water down his content. Both US women are equal in their abilities, so substitute them to give more skaters for a medal.
But it would be interesting to see results after day 1. And I do not see any other country in the top 5.

For Japan, keep both pairs and dance (for dance they have no choice anyway), substitute men (for the same reason to keep Yuma fresh) and women (to keep Kaori fresh). They can actually use Amy and Mone in team event, leaving Kaori focusing on individual, as she has a real chance for ind. gold.

 

[Ziotic]

I don't think the U.S # 2 dance team will be behind Canada, unless Giles and Poirer skate both. I don't see that happening.
I don't see Dudek- Stellato skating both programs.
The U.S. pair can beat Canada's #2.
That would be the toss up.
If Georgia makes to final , I don't see Georgia losing to either team nor Italy Conti and Macii if does free skate.
Both teams could lose to Japan #2 pair .
It would be foolish of Japan putting RM/RK for both. Why hurt chances for individual medal.

I think G/P will do both, hence USA behind. I also think La/La can beat Z/K, it will depend on the panel.

 

[SmileHappy34]

The reason why the US should put CB and Malinin in the SP is to make sure they gain as many points as possible in the SP. This is where they cannot risk anything. A bad performance can happen to anyone, a fluke fall, or a pop.. or whatever, and in the SP, as ten teams are entered, the scoring goes from 10 to 1. So you gotta use your best skaters in the SP

You cannot really make up points in the LP/FD if you are very behind. Points go from 10-6. For instance, if USA decided to use Chock and Bates in the free dance.. (just an example as it's not likely they won't be used in the RD). and used Emilea and Vadym in the RD. Let's assume that France, Italy, Canada would all then place ahead of Emilea and Vadym. So, Emilea and Vadym would score 7 points at best. Japan would score 1 or 2 points. That's a big difference you may say but not that much compared to using Chock and Bates in the RD which would gain a much bigger advantage to the USA if they place first or second (10 or 9 points).

In the FD. Japan will most likely already score 6 points... there is not much ground to be made for the USA here if they didn't make it in the short, they maximum advantage in the LP is 4 points.

I think you mean that the pairs are unreliable. Especially the USA pairs. That's their weakness. However, as we have seen, all the pairs are struggling with consistency and injuries at this point. One important kicker is how Sui-Han will do. They could win the SP as they did at 4CC but then China will most likely not qualify for the LP. If they win the SP, it's not a big deal as everyone will be behind. However, if a team wins over China, and China is second, this is the sort of arithmetics that becomes interesting. For instance, in pairs, Japan could place 1st, then China, then Italy, then Georgia, then Canada, then USA and here, Japan would earn 10 points and the USA only 5 points. So China placing in between Japan and USA here would give one extra point advantage to Japan in that scenario.

Simply put : Pairs is make it or break it for the USA

For Japan, dance will be a big problem if they want gold. But if all their other skaters do what they are able to do, it could be close.

At this point, I think Italy and Georgia would be fighting for bronze but that will depend on placements of Canada. Canada could place so well compared to Italy in Georgia with great skates from everyone and could also be in the mix. It's really hard to predict.

Let's say the U.s uses EZ/VZ in RD they finish behind the big names other teams #1 of France, Italy, Canada, Great Britain.
They finish 5th which would be 6 points.
Let's say all switch out but Italy #1 team.

In free dance they finish 2nd behind Italy. That would be 9 points . So the U.S. dance team gain 3 points from short.
So they made up their 3 point loss from free dance.

 

[SmileHappy34]

I think G/P will do both, hence USA behind. I also think La/La can beat Z/K, it will depend on the panel.

That is where I disagree. We agree to disagree. Yes they can .
U going by pb scores

So far they improve on sb during year.

The Olympic is about improving your season best and personal best both.
L/L has not improve on pb getting closer through sn

Whereas Z/K sband pb same. Could improve.

Yes L/L can beat them but personally don't see it. Unless did best at 4CC