2026 Olympics Team Event speculation

[FlossieH]

Let's say the U.s uses EZ/VZ in RD they finish behind the big names other teams #1 of France, Italy, Canada, Great Britain.
They finish 5th which would be 6 points.
Let's say all switch out but Italy #1 team.

In free dance they finish 2nd behind Italy. That would be 9 points . So the U.S. dance team gain 3 points from short.
So they made up their 3 point loss from free dance.

No, they cannot 'make up' any points. The points gained in the free programmes are added to those from the short programmes.

 

[SmileHappy34]

The reason why the US should put CB and Malinin in the SP is to make sure they gain as many points as possible in the SP. This is where they cannot risk anything. A bad performance can happen to anyone, a fluke fall, or a pop.. or whatever, and in the SP, as ten teams are entered, the scoring goes from 10 to 1. So you gotta use your best skaters in the SP

You cannot really make up points in the LP/FD if you are very behind. Points go from 10-6. For instance, if USA decided to use Chock and Bates in the free dance.. (just an example as it's not likely they won't be used in the RD). and used Emilea and Vadym in the RD. Let's assume that France, Italy, Canada would all then place ahead of Emilea and Vadym. So, Emilea and Vadym would score 7 points at best. Japan would score 1 or 2 points. That's a big difference you may say but not that much compared to using Chock and Bates in the RD which would gain a much bigger advantage to the USA if they place first or second (10 or 9 points).

In the FD. Japan will most likely already score 6 points... there is not much ground to be made for the USA here if they didn't make it in the short, they maximum advantage in the LP is 4 points.

I think you mean that the pairs are unreliable. Especially the USA pairs. That's their weakness. However, as we have seen, all the pairs are struggling with consistency and injuries at this point. One important kicker is how Sui-Han will do. They could win the SP as they did at 4CC but then China will most likely not qualify for the LP. If they win the SP, it's not a big deal as everyone will be behind. However, if a team wins over China, and China is second, this is the sort of arithmetics that becomes interesting. For instance, in pairs, Japan could place 1st, then China, then Italy, then Georgia, then Canada, then USA and here, Japan would earn 10 points and the USA only 5 points. So China placing in between Japan and USA here would give one extra point advantage to Japan in that scenario.

Simply put : Pairs is make it or break it for the USA

For Japan, dance will be a big problem if they want gold. But if all their other skaters do what they are able to do, it could be close.

At this point, I think Italy and Georgia would be fighting for bronze but that will depend on placements of Canada. Canada could place so well compared to Italy in Georgia with great skates from everyone and could also be in the mix. It's really hard to predict.

Totally agree with you regarding Sui and Han. I don'see China in final nor do I see Great Britain but I do see Fear and Gibson finishing in top 5

 

[SmileHappy34]

No, they cannot 'make up' any points. The points gained in the free programmes are added to those from the short programmes.

Right. Add 3 points in free.
They would have 5 from short finished 2nd add 4 points.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Ilia first free that 10 points . Andrew or Maxim finished take away 4 points thar leave 6 for men.
Men 6
Dance 9
Women 9
Pair let's say 7 equal 31 for u.s.
That is free if make it

 

[SmileHappy34]

u.s. short women 9
men 10 ilia
dance 5 (all top teams compete but u.s that includes france)
Pair 5
29 short

 

[SmileHappy34]

I don't see Great Britain, Poland, China in final.
Canada, Georgia, France, Korea depends on skaters in team and place.

Even without Ilia and Chock and Bates U.s. would qualify as 5th team

The locks for team final is Japan, Italy.

 

[4everchan]

I don't see Great Britain, Poland, China in final.
Canada, Georgia, France, Korea depends on skaters in team and place.

Even without Ilia and Chock and Bates U.s. would qualify as 5th team

The locks for team final is Japan, Italy.

Korea will have 0 points for pairs as they do not have an entry. Their dance team is good but will place in the lower half in the RD. Their men and women are good too but not as good as USA and Japanese single skaters. Korea is definitely not in the mix for the finals.

And also, I will agree to disagree with you about LaLa versus EZ/VK. The latter got a very big boost from skating in an event with a loose technical panel. What they benefitted from as well is a very consistent season whereas other teams made some mistakes. When it comes down to everyone skating with the same panel and at their best, I don't think they can beat the top teams from France, Italy, Canada and UK. I also do not think they will automatically beat the 2nd Canadian or even the 2nd French team. They can, but it's not a given.

 

[Ziotic]

I think a lot of the scenarios played out here are very favourable to US.

I see US pair being as low as 6th in the short. Especially if Ellie doesn’t land those jumps.

Currently they are 12th on the season-best list, 5 of the competitors for the team event ahead are ahead. Both #1 & 2 from JPN/CAN are ahead of them along with GEO, CHN and ITL number one.

If the French do the RD, that’s another potential point they lose to JPN, while JPN would lose to any French team.

Torgashev is below all the other expected to qualify for the free, JPN/ITA/GEO/CAN.

33 for USA to 32 for JPN is very realistic at the end of the short programs.

Swapping dance and men would likely leave them in silver USA(63) to JPN(67).

I'm not saying it will go that way, but it is very possible. They need to field their best.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Wow. I love this speculation. It is fantastic.
However. I never said that U.s would win.

My numbers place U.S. finish 2nd at highest usually 3rd.
Your numbers are for win. Mine are not.
i have Italy or Japan winning due to strength of overall teams.

I get you favor your countries and use it to win for team

I am being more fair and realistic with U.S. team going and normal skating.

I also don't believe the Olympic are really happening due to press release of cancellation when I live in Cincinnati over a decade ago due to higher costs of security, lack of snow, athlete issues.

I get the sponsor want to reap the benefit from athlete that supposedly didn't get.

Now claim all private Olympic. I am sorry they always we're how public bought product of so call winner names or other medalist that pushed on shelves then up price of product due to it. Athlete gets free.
Apologies for little rant.

To team that wins I could give u my numbers.
As I stated usual u.s. finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th. I even have scenarios where U.S. don't make final.

As stated italy and japan are lock for final.

Korea can get into final without points from pair or even 1 point.
The countries #2 and #3 team members are relatively close that are mistake could land the team in or out of final.

There is only once did I have u.s. win out several scenarios. That depends on italy dance

 

[SmileHappy34]

I think a lot of the scenarios played out here are very favourable to US.

I see US pair being as low as 6th in the short. Especially if Ellie doesn’t land those jumps.

Currently they are 12th on the season-best list, 5 of the competitors for the team event ahead are ahead. Both #1 & 2 from JPN/CAN are ahead of them along with GEO, CHN and ITL number one.

If the French do the RD, that’s another potential point they lose to JPN, while JPN would lose to any French team.

Torgashev is below all the other expected to qualify for the free, JPN/ITA/GEO/CAN.

33 for USA to 32 for JPN is very realistic at the end of the short programs.

Swapping dance and men would likely leave them in silver USA(63) to JPN(67).

I'm not saying it will go that way, but it is very possible. They need to field their best.

That too high realistically who bring in
U have Ilia and chock and bates.so possible

 

[SmileHappy34]

The U.S. can't get into the finals without either Ilia or Chock and Bates.
They can't win team without one or both.
Having both helps the cause.
.however the sb scores shows beatable as closeness
Yuma latest put him . 10 behind Ilia in short.
Frances LF/ Cizeron put them about 1.5 points behind Chock and Bates in rhythm dance. CG/,MF are about 3-4 points behind in rhythm dance.

France LB/,C are 2 points higher in free dance than Chuck and Bates. That is why people think win Ogm over Batea.
G/F about 5 points behind in free.
More close to bronze even G/p beat G/Fin Free dance scores

So would it pay to put very best teams that have realistic chance at individuals medal to tire out before that competition.

It showed In the Four Continents how many athletes skated tired and the costs to them and medal placement.

 

[Blackmirage]

The battle of the gold is between USA and Japan, USA having a slight edge (it depends on other countries as well, like the french ice dance team, Kevin Aymoz etc.)
The battle for the Bronze is even tighter between Italy and Georgia.

 

[Ziotic]

Personally, I feel the prediction game is going to be extra challenging since we don't know who is going to participate and we wont know who will do the Free programs until after locking in!

 

[Skater Boy]

USA is still looking good but things are bit more interesting if Iliay and chock and Baes don't do both events. They need to do the short because that i where there can be a bigger spread with 10 competitors. I still think USA should have enough to beat Japan but I guess it really depends if Japan or USA "win" thee events. if one of them wins 3 events they probably have gold unless say CB win ice dance and Japan is last in the RD especially that is a big spread. I see the team that could get slaughtered this olympics is Canada. I think Fear and Gibson could play spoilers in the team and win a bronze individually. But Canada once a powerhouse could possibly fail to qualify for the team finals. THey trending downwards in all 4 disciplines. I am gutted about what Ithink is the unfair dropping of Piper and Paul. I think Deanna and Max really made a gigantic mistake and should have gone back to their world champion fs and I appreciate there are conractual issues but the red fs dress by Oscar still works with the vampire program. This y ear is odd as it appears some skaters really tactically have made errors Alyssa trying to do lady Gaga and planning (is this a ploy??) to add a 3A never done in her programs for liek 3 years? Not to mention trying an new program at Nats. Piper and Paul not going to 4ccs to earn points to skate in the final group or did the Lithuanians poor finish at Europeans let Piper and Paul sneak into the final RD group? USA is so strong men, ladies and dance. BUt to save themselves for the individual events Malinin and CB may only skate one event in the tem and that could open the door for Japan. Georgia and Italy make a nice fight for bronze with France getting fifth? Or can Canada sneak into the finals??? Georgia after Europeans moved up to be a contender in the team. They are solid in all events and weakest is in dance and they aren't that weak. It is exciting for the podium for sure. Some strategy. The schedule might play a role as I can see why CB and Ilia might not want to do both programs considering the individual events. Inidivudal competitors like Sui and Han, GUllaume and Luarence, Fear and Gibson, all could affect the team results.

 

[4everchan]

I see the team that could get slaughtered this olympics is Canada.

Canada can finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th. I am not sure that qualifies as slaughtered but it's your choice of words. So fair enough.

I think Fear and Gibson could play spoilers in the team and win a bronze individually.

Possible.

But Canada once a powerhouse could possibly fail to qualify for the team finals.

Possible but still more possible they will qualify for the finals than not.

THey trending downwards in all 4 disciplines.

Not true. Compared to what ? Canada has finally a more stable man with two quads and a usually easy triple axel he can do right off a 3 flip. That's a very rewarding combo. Women are better. Much deeper field. Dance : 2 silver medals for Piper and Paul back to back at worlds. The French have gathered a lot of momentum already so it's not that dance is trending downwards here but that FBC are just that strong. Canada's B team at 4CC did well, including a 4th place by Fabbri Ayer with PB score if I am not mistaken. They are un an upwards trajectory after a difficult start of the season. Juniors are also in the mix. So no, I am not seeing the same thing. Pairs is tricky to assess : many injuries and splits/new partnerships coming up but 3 teams again at JGPF. Deanna was sick at Nationals. They lost their title. Fine. Trennt had shingles at Finlandia. Kelly Ann and Loucas had a respectable 5th place with PBs at 4CC. Not sure what's so alarming.

I am gutted about what Ithink is the unfair dropping of Piper and Paul.

This is indeed something that seems to be happening with Piper and Paul, but not only them. In Olympic years, some teams gather momentum early and win a lot early in the season and then are placed lower at the Olympics. It's possible Piper and Paul will secure their medal over these early winning teams. They always have a later start to the season not doing challengers and keep improving. Already at nationals, their programs were very much more convincing than at GPF where they lost the bronze by a tiny margin. So, I still believe.

Piper and Paul not going to 4ccs to earn points to skate in the final group or did the Lithuanians poor finish at Europeans let Piper and Paul sneak into the final RD group?

The Lithuanians needed to win Euros to kick Piper and Paul out of the last RD group. Also, FBC are not in the last group nor even second last group and I am sure they will score very well . Start orders can be detrimental but it's not automatic. Of course, it's hard to win a medal when you are in second last group for the Free Dance... but that starting order will happen, after the RD

USA is so strong men, ladies and dance.

yes.

BUt to save themselves for the individual events Malinin and CB may only skate one event in the tem and that could open the door for Japan.

The big names for Canada in 2018 were Virtue/Moir and Duhamel/Radford. They skated both segments of the team event and won their expected medals in their own discipline. If the Usa and Japan are very close after the short programs, they should try to have one if not both of Ilia and CB skate the free. At that point, the only thing that would matter is the differential between USA and Japan. Women are a coin toss... but pairs favour Japan. Dance favour USA... but not using CB means that Z/K may not place ahead of other teams like Canada, Italy etc and then be very close to Japan in expected 5th place for dance.

Georgia and Italy make a nice fight for bronze with France getting fifth?

I am not sure why people think about France more than Canada considering the Euros we just have seen where nobody from France, except their dancers performed very well.

Or can Canada sneak into the finals??? Georgia after Europeans moved up to be a contender in the team.

Georgia did well. Can they repeat that ? However, with the 4CC teams, in their case, their rankings may not hold as well the way FBC's ranking may hold.

They are solid in all events and weakest is in dance and they aren't that weak.

Their singles are hot and cold. Let me remind you that Gubanova didn't make the Free skate at worlds last year. She also should have won a medal at Euros this year but didn't have a great SP. Add Japanese, Korean and American women, and even Schizas who did beat her at previous Olympic Games in the team event, and it gets difficult for Gubanova to rack up the points. Same can be said of Schild and even Lara Naki. It's too tight and inconsistent to predict.

It is exciting for the podium for sure. Some strategy. The schedule might play a role as I can see why CB and Ilia might not want to do both programs considering the individual events. Inidivudal competitors like Sui and Han, GUllaume and Luarence, Fear and Gibson, all could affect the team results.

Sui Han have to compete. There is no other option for them unless China decided w/d or not put in a pairs team but that wouldn't go very well. FBC : I thought that Lopareva Brissaud were the ones skating but we will have to see about that. Fear and Gibson could play spoilers for sure.

The thing that is unpredictable and exciting about the team event are often in how countries who won't make the finals can have one very strong discipline that can spoil it for a lot of people. For instance : Japan wins the SP in pairs. Sui Han ranks second. All the other teams have lost a supplemental point behind Japan. So, for a team like the USA, in direct competition with Japan, that can be costly. For a team like Italy or Georgia, it doesn't matter if Japan and China place both ahead of them in the pairs. What matters is how they rank against one another. So that's why the Shorts are so important, and that's why it's still possible for Canada to make the bronze even if they are not favourites. It all depends on the help of other teams, sometimes teams that will not even be competing the next day.

 

[FlyingFeather]

Personally, I think USFS will essentially opt out of the gold medal. NBC marketing has essentially promised the country that Ilia will bring home the gold. He seems superhuman, but 4 programs so close together is a huge injury risk. While FB/C IMO will win gold in individual, USFS is not willing to hand it over without a fight. Since USFS criteria says it weights individual medals over team, the logical thing to do according to the criteria is to split ice dance and men, take the team silver, and hope that gamble pays off in a C/B ice dance gold.

 

[TontoK]

Korea can get into final without points from pair or even 1 point.
The countries #2 and #3 team members are relatively close that are mistake could land the team in or out of final.

At some point, it has to be said, even understanding that language issues might be in play.

I don't think you have any clue what you're talking about.

 

[msteach3]

Personally, I think USFS will essentially opt out of the gold medal. NBC marketing has essentially promised the country that Ilia will bring home the gold. He seems superhuman, but 4 programs so close together is a huge injury risk.

I think it's less of an injury issue, and more of a tiring out issue. If he's tired for the individual free skate, it may mean a watered down version which could put his gold medal at risk and would definitely be a disappointing skate for him.

 

[FlyingFeather]

I think it's less of an injury issue, and more of a tiring out issue. If he's tired for the individual free skate, it may mean a watered down version which could put his gold medal at risk and would definitely be a disappointing skate for him.

True. Also, I think he wants to break Nathan's combined score WR, but not sure when he could. It might be too risky to go for it at the individual event, he certainly won't want to try for the team event, so maybe he'll go to Worlds? Either way, I completely agree that US has to split men in the team event. Ilia I believe directly said he wants to split.
Have C/B given any indication about team event plans?

 

[saine]

I am not sure why people think about France more than Canada considering the Euros we just have seen where nobody from France, except their dancers performed very well.

I think it has to do with some of the inconsistencies in the fall, especially with Maddie. Maddie did struggle, but I think she got back on track once she switched back to the Lion King (and got the rights resolved since that had to be a lot of stress too.) Having a short program that she loves helps.

Lorine may be perceived as more consistent, but her ceiling is lower than Maddie's ceiling with a similar layout in the short. Lorine's PB in the short from 2025 WTT, where she went clean, scored close to Maddie. And that was Maddie with a fall on her 3Lo. Maddie with a mistake in the short at Finlandia outscored mostly clean Lorine in the short (Lorine got a q on her 3Lz in the combo.) I would bet on Maddie going above Lorine since she can outscore her while making a mistake.

Then there's Adam and Kevin who have higher ceilings than Gogolev and have both made GPF. But they've had their own issues with consistency and injury this season. I think either one would probably go above Gogolev in the short, but they could go below him too.