I hope we see someone from a smaller fed breakthrough otherwise then it just wouldn't be fun, Elizabet Tursynbaeva could be a late bloomer and be a challenger in the future, I like Eun Soo Lim from the Korean Juniors, she gives so much face I love it, she fell on her 3-3 in Ljulbjana but it has nice height and distance
Ladies skating 2018 and beyond
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i'll list a few skaters who i see becoming (or remaining) factors after 2018:
Russia: I'm not really sure what to say about Russian figure skating. Russian ladies figure skating seems more like a carousel of competent skaters "having their season" than anything...
Lipnitskaya had her moment in 2014, Tuktamysheva had her moment in 2015, Medvedeva had her moment in 2016 (and 2017?!)... The question with Russian talents isn't if they can get there, but rather, how long can they stay? The same goes for all of the talented juniors they have in their system- Tsurskaya, Fedichkina, Lozko, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Konstantinova... Can I say that I see the Russian Yuna Kim or the Russian Mao Asada in this list? Someone capable of holding everyone's attention for not just one year, but for one or two Olympic cycles? No, not really. I'm not sure why, but I think it's either because 1. Russian ladies seem to have shortened career "peaks" as i said, or 2. there's simply too many of them for one to really stand out in a particular way.
tl;dr: Russian figure skating has tremendous depth and will continue to be that way past 2018, but I don't really see a generational STAR in any of them. I know that's tremendously subjective, but it's just the way I see that particular Federation. I hope somebody proves me wrong.
Japan: Similar deal with Russia, but with a twist. There's so much depth with the current stars already. Looking beyond 2018 though, there's one noticeable difference to me. I see some future stars. I think Marin Honda has the IT factor. She's incredibly charming on the ice, has lovely skating, and her jump landings are graceful and easy. Another thing I noticed was that I think the Japanese have better jump technique than the Russians. I don't know if that's actually true or not, but I like their air position and their jumps just seem... easier. With Russians I see either tiny jumpers or jumpers who use a LOT of pull in their technique, especially with combos. Medvedeva, for example, has great height on her jumps and assured landings, but I don't think her combos are especially pretty. She "grinds out" a lot of her jumps, which is great, but I find Honda's flip-toe for example, while not as high or consistent, much nicer to watch. I think Sakamoto, Higuchi, Shiraiwa, and company all have nicer looking jumps than any of the Russians except Tsurskaya and maybe Tuktamysheva at her best. I can see Marin, Kaori, and Wakaba really paving the way after 2018- perhaps even before then!
USA: Ashley will be out of the picture, and no one knows about Gracie, though I personally doubt we'll see too much of her after Pyeongchang. I don't really see Polina making too big of an impact either- I think she'll be drowned out by the "Russian du jour" or one of the Japanese talents. And... where are the American juniors? I think USA's going to be out of the mix for at least a year or two after 2018.
Canada: The "Big Three" is still relatively young, but entering their peak years soon and will be in their mid 20's by 2022. With Osmond's injury issues I can't see her going too far past 2018 and I don't think Chartrand has staying power either. I can maybe see Daleman sticking around, but she's also a question mark. There's a couple juniors with some potential, but I don't really see anyone yet who can win medals at Worlds in the future. Canada might also be in a bit of a predicament after 2018, which is why it's really important for one (or two, or three) of the three contenders now to make their impact in the coming years.
Korea: Everyone was talking about Yelim Kim prior to the start of the JGP season, but to be honest I didn't really see anything special in her skating. I have to agree with the OP about Eunsoo Lim though, I had the same reaction to her as I did to seeing Marin Honda last year. As Ted Barton said this week in the ISU stream, this girl could be the next Yuna. Her jumps have huge distance and speed, and she lands them with elegance and poise. She gives a lot of face in her programs, much like Honda, and has nice skating. I could really see her driving Korean figure skating past 2018. And You Young could also be a game-changer- Yuna herself admitted how impressed she was by You.
We don't even know what's going to happen THIS year- scanning figure skating post-2018 seems a bit futile.
Russia: I'm not really sure what to say about Russian figure skating. Russian ladies figure skating seems more like a carousel of competent skaters "having their season" than anything...
Lipnitskaya had her moment in 2014, Tuktamysheva had her moment in 2015, Medvedeva had her moment in 2016 (and 2017?!)... The question with Russian talents isn't if they can get there, but rather, how long can they stay? The same goes for all of the talented juniors they have in their system- Tsurskaya, Fedichkina, Lozko, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Konstantinova... Can I say that I see the Russian Yuna Kim or the Russian Mao Asada in this list? Someone capable of holding everyone's attention for not just one year, but for one or two Olympic cycles? No, not really. I'm not sure why, but I think it's either because 1. Russian ladies seem to have shortened career "peaks" as i said, or 2. there's simply too many of them for one to really stand out in a particular way.
tl;dr: Russian figure skating has tremendous depth and will continue to be that way past 2018, but I don't really see a generational STAR in any of them. I know that's tremendously subjective, but it's just the way I see that particular Federation. I hope somebody proves me wrong.
Japan: Similar deal with Russia, but with a twist. There's so much depth with the current stars already. Looking beyond 2018 though, there's one noticeable difference to me. I see some future stars. I think Marin Honda has the IT factor. She's incredibly charming on the ice, has lovely skating, and her jump landings are graceful and easy. Another thing I noticed was that I think the Japanese have better jump technique than the Russians. I don't know if that's actually true or not, but I like their air position and their jumps just seem... easier. With Russians I see either tiny jumpers or jumpers who use a LOT of pull in their technique, especially with combos. Medvedeva, for example, has great height on her jumps and assured landings, but I don't think her combos are especially pretty. She "grinds out" a lot of her jumps, which is great, but I find Honda's flip-toe for example, while not as high or consistent, much nicer to watch. I think Sakamoto, Higuchi, Shiraiwa, and company all have nicer looking jumps than any of the Russians except Tsurskaya and maybe Tuktamysheva at her best. I can see Marin, Kaori, and Wakaba really paving the way after 2018- perhaps even before then!
USA: Ashley will be out of the picture, and no one knows about Gracie, though I personally doubt we'll see too much of her after Pyeongchang. I don't really see Polina making too big of an impact either- I think she'll be drowned out by the "Russian du jour" or one of the Japanese talents. And... where are the American juniors? I think USA's going to be out of the mix for at least a year or two after 2018.
Canada: The "Big Three" is still relatively young, but entering their peak years soon and will be in their mid 20's by 2022. With Osmond's injury issues I can't see her going too far past 2018 and I don't think Chartrand has staying power either. I can maybe see Daleman sticking around, but she's also a question mark. There's a couple juniors with some potential, but I don't really see anyone yet who can win medals at Worlds in the future. Canada might also be in a bit of a predicament after 2018, which is why it's really important for one (or two, or three) of the three contenders now to make their impact in the coming years.
Korea: Everyone was talking about Yelim Kim prior to the start of the JGP season, but to be honest I didn't really see anything special in her skating. I have to agree with the OP about Eunsoo Lim though, I had the same reaction to her as I did to seeing Marin Honda last year. As Ted Barton said this week in the ISU stream, this girl could be the next Yuna. Her jumps have huge distance and speed, and she lands them with elegance and poise. She gives a lot of face in her programs, much like Honda, and has nice skating. I could really see her driving Korean figure skating past 2018. And You Young could also be a game-changer- Yuna herself admitted how impressed she was by You.
We don't even know what's going to happen THIS year- scanning figure skating post-2018 seems a bit futile.
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I agree. What is up with the Finish Ladies?? They were really starting to make a move and the they seemed to disappear.
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For some reason, it doesn't bother me to see a fresh gymnastics team every four years. I suppose because, like you, I don't really follow the sport closely between Olympics. Aly Raisman (age 22) did fine as a returning competitor, but Gabby Douglas (20), however much I like her, did not add to her legacy by returning.
Simon Biles (19) just missed the age cutoff in 2012.
To this inexperienced observer the turnover is apparent even between Olympic teams. Shawn Johnson was great in 2007, but by 2008 she was the tiniest bit past her peak. Same with Jordyn Weber in 2011 versus 2012. And for that matter, Simone Biles, celebrated as possibly the greatest of all time in Rio, was even better in 2015.
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That makes sense. She is probably at her physical peak now. I don't think she would be a serious contender for an Olympic medal in 2022.
I think, it's going to be Russia vs Japan vs Korea in next several years, unless of course some extraordinary talent from other federations appears.
If all the funding and interest will be kept more or less even for years to come, I'd lean towards Nina Mozer's opinion and say Asian girls are gonna prevail in the end based on some specific genetic advantages.
If all the funding and interest will be kept more or less even for years to come, I'd lean towards Nina Mozer's opinion and say Asian girls are gonna prevail in the end based on some specific genetic advantages.
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Have we lost all faith in Vivian Le and Emily Chan? Plus, I don't think Polina or Mariah Bell have peaked and I could easily see one of them on the podium in 2018 AND beyond. Remember what I always say.....If my wife Maria B. could pull it off, so can one of these ladies.
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Canada: the top 3 girls are still young, Daleman being quite young. All three of them are improving each year and they all have 3-3 combos. Sure, consistency may be an issue but it seems like when one does badly, one another does better. I don't know about Kaetlyn. It's hard to say what kind of rhythm her career has because she's been injured a lot, but her joy in her skating could keep her in the game if her body cooperate. Chartrand is very ambitious yet hasn't traveled much... She even still lives at home and her parents drive with her over the weekend when she seeks advice from the big coaches.... I can imagine her wanting to move out, try out a new environment and so on in the future.
I think the one who is most likely to continue on is Gabby. She's dynamite. Her jumps are big and powerful. She worked really hard last year to polish her style and that saved her from becoming pigeon-holed as a "jumps only" skater.... proof : she just scored the highest PCS in Nebelhorn, out of the whole field which included former world champion Liza Tukt.... you can say whatever you want, but outscoring Liza in PCS is a clear message that judges see that she is refining her style. She's still a teenager !
I think it is likely that one or even two, and perhaps even all three may keep on going post 2018, especially the one girl who may be left out if Canada only qualifies 2 for the games. (Chartrand hasn't been to the Olympics, if left out, she may skate the extra mile to achieve that... Gabby was a baby when she went, Kaetlyn has a silver medal from the team event.. so that's less of a factor for her).
AND: ) two last points about Canada
1) not only ladies, but it is rare that our skaters make such an impact on the junior scene.. they tend to flourish later... so for me, when I look at the current girls not doing so well at JGP, i am not too worried... because honestly, when was the last time we had a strong finish in ladies in juniors? yet, we have managed to retain two spots for worlds most years, in very competitive fields.
2) while the young group of top ladies monopolize the podium at canadians, it may seem that there is nobody following up, considering junior skaters... but either someone will develop like I said in 1) but even more likely, the next Canadian champion is not even on the radar.. probably a novice girl who by 2019-20 may make her move.
So yes, Japan and Russia, and of course the USA will always have more depth, especially in ladies than Canada... (hello demographics!!!!!) but our expectations are also different.... We wish them to do well, but if they skate well and some amazing skater from one of the powerhouses out jumps the Canadians, no big deal
Finally, Joannie's memory winning bronze on home soil in such circumstances makes it easier to be patient about who will be Canada's next ice queen
I think the one who is most likely to continue on is Gabby. She's dynamite. Her jumps are big and powerful. She worked really hard last year to polish her style and that saved her from becoming pigeon-holed as a "jumps only" skater.... proof : she just scored the highest PCS in Nebelhorn, out of the whole field which included former world champion Liza Tukt.... you can say whatever you want, but outscoring Liza in PCS is a clear message that judges see that she is refining her style. She's still a teenager !
I think it is likely that one or even two, and perhaps even all three may keep on going post 2018, especially the one girl who may be left out if Canada only qualifies 2 for the games. (Chartrand hasn't been to the Olympics, if left out, she may skate the extra mile to achieve that... Gabby was a baby when she went, Kaetlyn has a silver medal from the team event.. so that's less of a factor for her).
AND: ) two last points about Canada
1) not only ladies, but it is rare that our skaters make such an impact on the junior scene.. they tend to flourish later... so for me, when I look at the current girls not doing so well at JGP, i am not too worried... because honestly, when was the last time we had a strong finish in ladies in juniors? yet, we have managed to retain two spots for worlds most years, in very competitive fields.
2) while the young group of top ladies monopolize the podium at canadians, it may seem that there is nobody following up, considering junior skaters... but either someone will develop like I said in 1) but even more likely, the next Canadian champion is not even on the radar.. probably a novice girl who by 2019-20 may make her move.
So yes, Japan and Russia, and of course the USA will always have more depth, especially in ladies than Canada... (hello demographics!!!!!) but our expectations are also different.... We wish them to do well, but if they skate well and some amazing skater from one of the powerhouses out jumps the Canadians, no big deal
Finally, Joannie's memory winning bronze on home soil in such circumstances makes it easier to be patient about who will be Canada's next ice queen
This is my opinion:
Russia - To be honest, only Polina Tsurskaya has impressed me out of all the junior Russians so far. Although she does need to work on her presentation (which btw has already improved greatly compared to last season), her jumps are huge and all her other elements are solid too. I think her technique will serve her well in the long-term (I just hope she stops growing!). However, other Russians, such as Zagitova, Lozko, Gubanova, Nugumanova, and Fedichkina, do not have good jumping technique, and I can see them losing their jumps as their bodies fill out in the future.
Japan - There are lots of talents in Japan that will make skating past 2018 exciting. Obviously, not even counting Satoko and Rika (I'm sure they will not retire after 2018), Honda, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Kihira, Mihara, Shraiwa (I'm sure I've missed some). There are just so many talents. Honda has the "it" factor, but obviously, due to the similar technical content and good SS amongst these ladies, she cannot afford to make a big mistake if she wants to make future World/Olympic teams. A lot of these Japanese ladies do have pretty solid technique. Not necessarily the most explosive jumps (except Sakamoto), but pretty good technique overall. It should serve them well in the long-term.
Korea - There are lots of talents in Korea too. Obviously, Eun Soo is a huge talent. She has the whole package: high and wide jumps (very reminiscent of Yu-na Kim), solid SS, presentation skills, and hunger to do well. Ye Lim is also talented (her spins are great, and when she is on, her jumps can be impressive too especially with the Rippons. She has pretty deep edges). However, she really lacks in presentation skills (her facial expression doesn't change even once during the program), which her team really, really need to focus on for her to get recognized by the judges. There are also many talents that are not even juniors yet, such as Young You who already won Korean Nationals last season. Her jumps are solid, she's extremely fast, and her presentation, just like Eun Soo, captures you right away. She will be debuting next season in the JGP. There's also Yoon Kyung Kam. I'm sure many people aren't familiar with her yet, but she's the same age as Young, and she also has great jumping technique and basics. She needs to improve on her performance, however. Korea is slowly but surely moving up to become one of the top ice skating countries, which makes me happy considering that I'm a huge Yu-na fan.
USA - Unfortunately, there appears to be not too many talents in the US. Ashley Kim looks somewhat promising, but we have yet to have seen her on the international stage. Vivian Le has huge jumps, but her presentation is a bit flat and she's not too consistent (especially with the 3S and 3Lo...). Emily Chan and Ashley Lin have weird jumping technique. Unfortunately, I don't see any new star yet from the US.
Russia - To be honest, only Polina Tsurskaya has impressed me out of all the junior Russians so far. Although she does need to work on her presentation (which btw has already improved greatly compared to last season), her jumps are huge and all her other elements are solid too. I think her technique will serve her well in the long-term (I just hope she stops growing!). However, other Russians, such as Zagitova, Lozko, Gubanova, Nugumanova, and Fedichkina, do not have good jumping technique, and I can see them losing their jumps as their bodies fill out in the future.
Japan - There are lots of talents in Japan that will make skating past 2018 exciting. Obviously, not even counting Satoko and Rika (I'm sure they will not retire after 2018), Honda, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Kihira, Mihara, Shraiwa (I'm sure I've missed some). There are just so many talents. Honda has the "it" factor, but obviously, due to the similar technical content and good SS amongst these ladies, she cannot afford to make a big mistake if she wants to make future World/Olympic teams. A lot of these Japanese ladies do have pretty solid technique. Not necessarily the most explosive jumps (except Sakamoto), but pretty good technique overall. It should serve them well in the long-term.
Korea - There are lots of talents in Korea too. Obviously, Eun Soo is a huge talent. She has the whole package: high and wide jumps (very reminiscent of Yu-na Kim), solid SS, presentation skills, and hunger to do well. Ye Lim is also talented (her spins are great, and when she is on, her jumps can be impressive too especially with the Rippons. She has pretty deep edges). However, she really lacks in presentation skills (her facial expression doesn't change even once during the program), which her team really, really need to focus on for her to get recognized by the judges. There are also many talents that are not even juniors yet, such as Young You who already won Korean Nationals last season. Her jumps are solid, she's extremely fast, and her presentation, just like Eun Soo, captures you right away. She will be debuting next season in the JGP. There's also Yoon Kyung Kam. I'm sure many people aren't familiar with her yet, but she's the same age as Young, and she also has great jumping technique and basics. She needs to improve on her performance, however. Korea is slowly but surely moving up to become one of the top ice skating countries, which makes me happy considering that I'm a huge Yu-na fan.
USA - Unfortunately, there appears to be not too many talents in the US. Ashley Kim looks somewhat promising, but we have yet to have seen her on the international stage. Vivian Le has huge jumps, but her presentation is a bit flat and she's not too consistent (especially with the 3S and 3Lo...). Emily Chan and Ashley Lin have weird jumping technique. Unfortunately, I don't see any new star yet from the US.
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- Jul 9, 2014
Andyjo24, I certainly hope this thread is still in the archives when 2018 gets here. You completely left Canada off the list and you have no faith in ANY of the US ladies. I can only hope you're wrong. For now, let's focus on who we think will make the podium in 2017.
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Whatever you think about technique and other qualities of the skaters, there is always the large quantity factor regarding Russian ladies.
And therein lies the RUB. It's all about the depth. There has rarely, if ever been a year without a Russian in contention since Irina started the ball rolling 20 years ago with her Bronze Medal in 1996.
I agree with [almost] everything you say in your post, but I think it's so ironic that when you are talking about the Russian stars, you did not even mention Olympic Champion Adelina, nor did you mention world medalist Radionova and Pogorilaya. I think that is a testament to the depth of the ladies field. They have their stars of the year, but they always have a "back up" in every season. It's not just that they have the gold medal, they have strong contenders for Silver and Bronze too.
Well, 2006-2011 was arguably a pretty rough time, after Irina retired.
Us young lady skaters to watch after 2018:
Vivian Le (I saw huge improvement in presentation, and I believe she will got her edge jump cos She trains with Raf now)
Tessa Hong (This girl if healthy, is a diamond)
Ashley Kim, Katelyn Nguyen, Alexia Paganini, All these girls can jump but they all have weaknesses and I believe they will improve.
I think I also saw another young mixed blood girl who is very charming and promising. Forget her name.
I agree with others US skaters and Canadians as well could be late bloomers.
As for older girls
Polina E let wait and see what she got this season.
Karen Chen I still have hope in her.
Mariah Bell is on the rise.
Emily Chen unfortunately, she lacks technique in jumps as well as SS. although very lovely presentation. since she is not that young. I dont have high hopes on her.
Gracie very likely will retire after 2018, is not, i hope she can skate without pressure for once.
i think, i may still missed lots of girls.
but the point is that American skaters could be late bloomers.
Vivian Le (I saw huge improvement in presentation, and I believe she will got her edge jump cos She trains with Raf now)
Tessa Hong (This girl if healthy, is a diamond)
Ashley Kim, Katelyn Nguyen, Alexia Paganini, All these girls can jump but they all have weaknesses and I believe they will improve.
I think I also saw another young mixed blood girl who is very charming and promising. Forget her name.
I agree with others US skaters and Canadians as well could be late bloomers.
As for older girls
Polina E let wait and see what she got this season.
Karen Chen I still have hope in her.
Mariah Bell is on the rise.
Emily Chen unfortunately, she lacks technique in jumps as well as SS. although very lovely presentation. since she is not that young. I dont have high hopes on her.
Gracie very likely will retire after 2018, is not, i hope she can skate without pressure for once.
i think, i may still missed lots of girls.
but the point is that American skaters could be late bloomers.
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Mrrice, it's quite unfortunate that I don't have any faith in the US ladies yet. None of the juniors have impressed me so far (not sure if you've been watching the JGP series), so I'm very worried no one will be able to replace Gracie and Ashley when they retire. As an American, I hope I myself am wrong, but this is my honest opinion right now.
As for Canada, I completely left it off the list because I haven't seen even 1 strong talent in the JGP series. If you can enlighten me on who from Canada you think has great potential, please let me know! I'm interested in learning new skaters I haven't heard before.
And as for focusing on 2017, why should we do that on this thread? I thought this thread was for 2018 and beyond, no?
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Mrrice, it's quite unfortunate that I don't have any faith in the US ladies yet. None of the juniors have impressed me so far (not sure if you've been watching the JGP series), so I'm very worried no one will be able to replace Gracie and Ashley when they retire. As an American, I hope I myself am wrong, but this is my honest opinion right now.
As for Canada, I completely left it off the list because I haven't seen even 1 strong talent in the JGP series. If you can enlighten me on who from Canada you think has great potential, please let me know! I'm interested in learning new skaters I haven't heard before.
And as for focusing on 2017, why should we do that on this thread? I thought this thread was for 2018 and beyond, no?
Oh all right....I'll follow the rules.
I have to admit that I am not the best person to ask as I have mainly been focused on the Men. Ever since my Wife Maria, and Second Wife Jennifer Robinson retired. I haven't really paid close attention to ladies skating with the exception of Gracie and my other US Gal, Angela Wang. Mariah Bell has risen like Phoenix after disaster that left her in tears at last years Nationals but, she is really looking great as the new season begins.
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*nods*. I almost forgot to include Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya in my post as well. The depth is astounding.
4everchan thanks for this!:agree:
But I had to smile to see the line about Alaine not having travelled....the kilometres she and her father put on her grandfather's old megaRV are staggering. See https://www.thestar.com/sports/2016...nd-discusses-gruelling-training-schedule.html
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/w...ure-skating-championships-chartrand-1.3509424
But it's true she sticks close to her family. Sounds as though they're a full team of support such that she brings home to where she trains. But with Leigh and Orser in the Toronto area, and former Slovakian Olympian Robert Kazimir coaching her in Ottawa (couple of hours closer to home), she's got lots of international expertise surrounding her. That said, her shout out to Robert Kasimir for national coaches week thanking him for telling her to "calm down" sounds like advice that all the top three Cnd women could benefit from in the last 3 years. https://www.instagram.com/p/BKtFZy2DvWF/.
Perhaps more and earlier developmental assignments for junior and novice women might be what's needed. It looks like Skates Canada is reconsidering its policy on international assignments for juniors, and sent some novice men to Europe late last season, so perhaps the new girls coming up will get opportunities too.
On the substantive point about late bloomers, I really appreciate your adding this into the thread. Skate Canada is pressing coaches (following Sport Canada policy) to coach to developmental or biological age within the reality of the ISU age criteria. Its Long Term Athlete Development Model documents argue that coaching to chronological age has been a negative in Canada, especially for girls. So, it will be interesting to me to see how this plays out once the major changes in Skate Canada's programming that came in during this quadrennial work through the cohorts coming up.
I'd like to bear in mind that 10 years ago IMO there were very few that would have forecast the incredible wave of new Russian womens' talent in its breadth and depth. Major changes in resources and philosophy at the federation level seem to be able to make significant impacts in this sport.
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