2018 Four Continents Ladies FS

[Globetrotter]

You know, if you're going to score both Mai and especially Kaori 68 in PCS, Satoko really should be closer to 74 or so. Of course, none of them should be anywhere near that high but that's how far ahead Satoko should be.

Personally, I think that ~69 for Satoko is a little stingy but it’s in the appropriate range. I think it looks jarring simply because Kaori is substantially boosted. If Satoko is say about 70, then Mai is at about 67-68, Kaori should be max 66. There is a difference between them. If the PCS were not boosted and the 3fLz was called, Mai Mihara will probably be the winner.

 

[chopinskate]

You know, if you're going to score both Mai and especially Kaori 68 in PCS, Satoko really should be closer to 74 or so. Of course, none of them should be anywhere near that high but that's how far ahead Satoko should be.

If CaroK gets 75 for that program in Euros, then Satoko absolutely should get 74, or more, here. Heck, between clean Satoko and clean CaroK, I'd pick Satoko.
(Yes, I know this was a different event, with stingy PCS, but that was some strange scoring.)

 

[SnowWhite]

How many serious OBM contenders are there now? And that's with a Japanese spot missing and assuming Zhenia and Alina skate their best. If they bomb or are banned it only gets worse.

By my count, 6 (not listed in order of likelihood):

- Carolina
- Kaetlyn
- Gabby
- Maria
- Satoko
- Kaori

Some more likely than others of course, but those are the possibilities I see. 4CC moved Kaori up a bit for me, and Euros moved Maria (and Carolina a little) down, Canadian Nats moved Gabby up, etc. They all have chances. IMO if Kaetlyn and/or Carolina are pretty close to clean, it'll be one of them, but they're less likely to go clean than some of the others. Maria got good scores at GPF, but she was rough and Russian Nats and at Euros, plus she was just scored lower at Euros overall - it depends if the judges are more like GPF or Euros. The judges will go with Carolina, that was clear from Euros, but that many mistakes will kill her chances, especially against Kaetlyn. I say that since she has less of a PCS and GOE advantage over Kaetlyn than some of the other girls when Kaetlyn skates decently. Satoko's chances are really affected by UR calls, plus she doesn't have the PCS advantage that some think she should. If some of the others skate well, Gabby won't be on the podium, but if she skates like she did at Nationals, she'll be right there if mistakes are made, just like at Worlds last year.

 

[Roo87]

so happy for Alaine! She wasn't perfect, but a SB was a bit of redemption from nationals. I'm still heartbroken for her, she should be going to Olympics. I saw her skate at Nationals in 2016 and she was amazing, but wrong year to shine! Hoping for a great next quad for her.

 

[YesWay]

I disagree partially. If the flutz was called, the total will drop about 2.5 points for Kaori. Additionally, Satoko’s IN and SS and CO are at a higher level than Mai and Kaori. If anything, Kaori’s PCS should be lower than Mai, about 66 max. Overall, my look of things is that Mai should be the winner over Kaori and Satoko 3rd but with a higher total for better PCS.

Even in the best case, it couldn't be only 2.5 points lower... not after the base value reduction, and judges have to reduce GoE by at least -2...

 

[OS]

Yeah, when results start being predictable, you can tell there’s something wrong with the numbers of this sport

uhhh.. heh.. you think? It is federation skating, no longer figure skating.

 

[matmuh]

I never NEVER NEVER!!! get tired of watching Mai's free skate. It's so angelic and unlike her SP, I never have nerves that she is going to miss her jumps. She is just on every time with this FS. Don't think she has had a huge error with her FS once this entire season, except that one time she didn't do the second part of her combo jump but then inserted the 3T at a later 3F but I wouldn't count that as an error.

I have a hard time believing that Kaori's Performance/Interpretation of Music are higher than Mai. It is splitting hairs as they are like .04 different but in that specific category I think Mai should be way ahead with her FS.

she doubled her 3S at SCAC and got edge call on flip, and i think missing combo (which was supposed to be 2A3T) was at France where she added 2T2Lo to 3Lo and 3T to her 2nd Lutz, its amazing she was able to adjust her layout very successfully!

 

[chopinskate]

Comments on top 4:

1) Kaori -- So that was a flutz, did a take when I saw it first. Still not a fan of the program, but she has a mind of steel, doesn't she? Needs work on performance, though.

2) Mai -- She's clearly a good skater, who has a lot of great things... But I'm not always drawn in by her. Sometimes had dead face going on in her StSq. Though maybe it was the bangs?

3) Satoko -- So that's the first time I've seen her fall. I still want her for the OGM, though it won't happen. A more complete skater on the PCS side isn't there, for me, say what you want about CaroK.

4) Dabin -- Needs more commitment, but I still think 59 is too low for her PCS. Also, in the era of too many transitions, she has too few. I don't remember her being so slow in getting her combos?


What was up with the spin levels this competition?

 

[MiRé]

LOL @ Dabin getting ! on her Lutz. Technical judges need their eyes checked before Olympics

 

[xeyra]

I have a hard time believing that Kaori's Performance/Interpretation of Music are higher than Mai. It is splitting hairs as they are like .04 different but in that specific category I think Mai should be way ahead with her FS.

I adore Mai's FS this season but I think this part is very dependent on judge and audience subjectivity because I happen to think Kaori also performs and interprets the heck out of her Amelie FS. In terms of PCS, I'd give the SS edge to Mai but in PE and IN in their respective FS (not the SPs, where I think Mai wins over Kaori even if neither are particularly adept at interpreting their particular pieces just yet), it's really dependent on personal taste. I do think Mai has been underscored in PCS all season long but finally gained some PCS ground here (she averaged less than 65 in the FS before today).

 

[Globetrotter]

Even in the best case, it couldn't be only 2.5 points lower... not after the base value reduction, and judges have to reduce GoE by at least -2...

Lol was trying to be a bit more generous and positive after all the PCS stinginess. Choi Dabin got super stingy components despite a more than decent skate.

 

[surimi]

Haven't seen anything of the ladies yet, but popping in to say congrats to DaBin on her placement. I'm happy for her. And for Kaori who is on an incredible roll. wow. Fingers still crossed for Satoko at the Olympics.

 

[Miss Ice]

Dabin underscored. :roll5: Almost 0 GOE for nearly everything? I remember one time even B.ESP said she did a flutz when she had a clear outside edge on a beautiful running edge into and out of the lutz. Who's paying them to say this stuff, and who's paying ISU to blatantly favor only certain countries?

But congrats to Mai and Kaori, deservingly grabbed those top two places, even if the order could be changed!

 

[OS]

Lol was trying to be a bit more generous and positive after all the PCS stinginess. Choi Dabin got super stingy components despite a more than decent skate.

Quitely honestly, don't understand the 16 points between her and the 15 years old Alina who get 75 these days, or 20 points separate Alina and Soyoun. TES is one thing, PCS is quite another... they can add 2 or even 3 quads, and till not enough...

 

[Latremu]

Wah, these ladies!! They're worth crying for, and definitely worth cheering loudly from the top of my lungs for. I completely disobeyed the rules and came closer near where the skaters entered the ice for the last group (before that, they looked like ants). Mariah Bell and Dabin Choi did pretty well, especially Dabin. She moves well and has beautiful jumps! Happy for her. Ha-nul Kim seemed really nervous, but she's 15 so I'm sure she'll have more chances.

Of course, the Japanese ladies were phenomenal and a league ahead of everyone. Satoko's jumps looked higher in person than in videos, and despite the fall (for which there was a collective gasp, mine included), her quality is undeniable, and I found myself holding my breath during her spins. She did have some trouble with the jumps during the warm up. I hope she's able to rally for the Olympics and stop thinking she's mentally weak- because love her or hate her, no one can deny that Satoko's mental fortitude is one of the best out there (except Satoko herself apparently, but she's wrong in her belief).

Kaori and Mai were so good! Couldn't help but emphatically stand for these ladies after their performances. Mai is such a light and flowy smooth skater, so lovely to watch. Kaori was oozing confidence and had presence, my attention was on her all the way through. I still didn't like the weird arm-swinging choreo, but otherwise I felt like her skating had improved greatly from before.

I don't know if anyone caught it on video or pictures, but as the three were heading to the ice entrance prior to being called for the medal ceremony, Satoko was looking really down as she was walking to the entrance. However, when Kaori came around (happy as a bunny, understandably), Satoko touched her arm and congratulated and hugged her. Then Mai came around and exuberantly hugged and congratulated Kaori, then turned to Satoko and said something that made Satoko smile and hugged her too. They were in a group hug for a bit. It was a really touching moment. Too bad I was too slow on the uptake, I wasn't able to take a picture of it. The three of them skating around the arena behind one Japanese flag, after the awarding, was really cute.

 

[AlexRus]

I don't see Flip of Dabin, I see three times Lutz.

 

[Miss Ice]

Quitely honestly, don't understand and the 16 points between her and the 15 year Alina who get 75 these days, or 20 points separate Alina and Soyoun. TES is one thing, PCS is quite another... they can add 2 quads, and till not enough...

Don't you see? Alina reached the peak of skating perfection and maturity at 15! Her recycled program from the junior circuit is actually the peak of artistry! Everything we have been taught about posture, upper body control, and smooth edge quality is actually subjective and irrelevant. We should all just sit quietly and bow our heads to the jumpfest and hunched torso skating, because it is the new Gold Standard.

Clearly, Satoko, Mai, and other skaters like Soyoun and Dabin could have had higher PCS if they flailed their arms, opened their mouths a bit more, threw in some more mimes (good job Kaori, this is why her PCS is on the rise!), and hunched their backs a little more. Especially Soyoun. Look at that graceful use of arms and lovely upper body control. That's not what we need in this sport! Nope!

 

[dalenofff]

Yeah , Mai's jump seem so effortless and clean, nothing against Kaori... Oh well we all have our favorite...

 

[dalenofff]

*( Clearly, Satoko, Mai, and other skaters like Soyoun and Dabin could have had higher PCS if they flailed their arms, opened their mouths a bit more, threw in some more mimes (good job Kaori, this is why her PCS is on the rise!), and hunched their backs a little more. Especially Soyoun. Look at that graceful use of arms and lovely upper body control. That's not what we need in this sport! Nope! )*

and the backloading, let not forget about that..

PS, got to learn to reply with quote..

 

[Interspectator]

Wah, these ladies!! They're worth crying for, and definitely worth cheering loudly from the top of my lungs for. I completely disobeyed the rules and came closer near where the skaters entered the ice for the last group (before that, they looked like ants). Mariah Bell and Dabin Choi did pretty well, especially Dabin. She moves well and has beautiful jumps! Happy for her. Ha-nul Kim seemed really nervous, but she's 15 so I'm sure she'll have more chances.

Of course, the Japanese ladies were phenomenal and a league ahead of everyone. Satoko's jumps looked higher in person than in videos, and despite the fall (for which there was a collective gasp, mine included), her quality is undeniable, and I found myself holding my breath during her spins. She did have some trouble with the jumps during the warm up. I hope she's able to rally for the Olympics and stop thinking she's mentally weak- because love her or hate her, no one can deny that Satoko's mental fortitude is one of the best out there (except Satoko herself apparently, but she's wrong in her belief).

Kaori and Mai were so good! Couldn't help but emphatically stand for these ladies after their performances. Mai is such a light and flowy smooth skater, so lovely to watch. Kaori was oozing confidence and had presence, my attention was on her all the way through. I still didn't like the weird arm-swinging choreo, but otherwise I felt like her skating had improved greatly from before.

I don't know if anyone caught it on video or pictures, but as the three were heading to the ice entrance prior to being called for the medal ceremony, Satoko was looking really down as she was walking to the entrance. However, when Kaori came around (happy as a bunny, understandably), Satoko touched her arm and congratulated and hugged her. Then Mai came around and exuberantly hugged and congratulated Kaori, then turned to Satoko and said something that made Satoko smile and hugged her too. They were in a group hug for a bit. It was a really touching moment. Too bad I was too slow on the uptake, I wasn't able to take a picture of it. The three of them skating around the arena behind one Japanese flag, after the awarding, was really cute.

Thanks for your live impressions!