Medvedeva vs Zagitova

[Procrastinator]

I've been playing around with the scoring excel sheet and I think we can fairly project that Osmond would be at 228-230 if she nailed both programs (a big if), and Zagitova would be around 230-232 if she hits.

However, I found that Medvedeva has the most range score-wise, depending on how wacky the judges decide to go with GOE. She could be anywhere from 228-234 based on whether the judges give her axels a +1 or go wacky and just give straight +2s/+3s; same goes for the lutz which is probably the worst one being done by any senior lady.

As for base value, Zagitova is around 6 points higher than Med/Osmond, who are roughly tied with one another.

Another question mark is the effect of the team competition on future scores. If Med competes and they gave her a somewhat inflated score and she skates a similar performance in the singles competition, they'll overinflate the score further. Look at Davis/White, Yuzuru, Yulia, Carolina, Volosozhar/Trankov, Stolbova/Klimov.

 

[FSLover17]

I have a question.....Are Tuk, Radionova, and Leonova's season's over? Only in Russia are these 3 ladies not going to World's. Is there a chance they'll get to go to Europeans? I'm sure they'll send the World Team there but, if Eugenia doesn't go, I assume they'll send the Bronze Medalist from Nationals, right?

The European team seems to have been announced : (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_European_Figure_Skating_Championships) and I doubt they will be sent to Worlds so I think so. Kostornaya, the bronze medallist, is too young to go to Europeans so I think Stanislava or Tsurskaya might go if Zhenya withdraws.
My opinion;
3Lz - Alina
3F - Either tbh
3Lo - Zhenya
3S - Zhenya
2A - Alina
Triple-Triple - Alina
Skating Skills - Evgenia
Transitions - Alina
Interpretation - Evgenia
Choreography/Composition - Evgenia
Performance Execution - Evgenia

 

[yume]

We all said before Sochi that no one can beat a clean or almost clean Yuna. She can afford a fall and still win and how wrong we were.

Yeah how wrong it can be for Medvedeva too.

 

[andromache]

I

Another question mark is the effect of the team competition on future scores. If Med competes and they gave her a somewhat inflated score and she skates a similar performance in the singles competition, they'll overinflate the score further. Look at Davis/White, Yuzuru, Yulia, Carolina, Volosozhar/Trankov, Stolbova/Klimov.

I think if I was Evgenia (and assuming Evgenia gets whatever she wants from Rusfed), I would sit out the team competition completely. Rest up and let the hype and suspense build - if anyone can handle it, she can. Let Alina "Yulia" herself out of OGM contention in the individual competition (though I'm not sure that would work, as I assume even if Evgenia chose not to compete for the team, Alina will only skate 1 program and Maria the other.)

But I assume that Evgenia cares about team gold and will want to skate one program. Plus, it improve the chances of team gold, since Katelyn has a better chance of beating Maria than Evgenia/Alina. Evgenia should skate the SP and Alina the LP for Russia's best chance at team gold.

(Gosh, how far will each team go to win team gold? If Canada has Katelyn skate BOTH programs, it's better than splitting them between her and Gabby. But it could tire Katelyn out and lose her an individual medal. The CHOICES!!)

 

[Macassar88]

I think if I was Evgenia (and assuming Evgenia gets whatever she wants from Rusfed), I would sit out the team competition completely. Rest up and let the hype and suspense build - if anyone can handle it, she can. Let Alina "Yulia" herself out of OGM contention in the individual competition (though I'm not sure that would work, as I assume even if Evgenia chose not to compete for the team, Alina will only skate 1 program and Maria the other.)

But I assume that Evgenia cares about team gold and will want to skate one program. Plus, it improve the chances of team gold, since Katelyn has a better chance of beating Maria than Evgenia/Alina. Evgenia should skate the SP and Alina the LP for Russia's best chance at team gold.

(Gosh, how far will each team go to win team gold? If Canada has Katelyn skate BOTH programs, it's better than splitting them between her and Gabby. But it could tire Katelyn out and lose her an individual medal. The CHOICES!!)

I thought that Russia was banned. How will the team competition work in this case?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I thought that Russia was banned. How will the team competition work in this case?

They won’t be called Team Russia but instead Olympic Athletes from Russia. Team OAR!!!

As long as the IOC invites athletes from each discipline who qualify I can’t see how they wouldn’t have a team but nothing for certain has officially been announced.

FTR: No skaters were implicated in Rodchenkov’s madness and only about 25 Athletes are thought to be involved from the Winter Olympics. At least..that’s the conclusion of the IOC and WADA commissions. Most of the athletes are from track and field who are involved.

 

[Macassar88]

They won’t be called Team Russia but instead Team Olympic Athletes from Russia. Team OAR!!!

As long as the IOC invites athletes from each discipline who qualify I can’t see how they wouldn’t have a team it I’m not certain anything official has been announced.

Oh that's interesting. I knew that the skaters would be able to skate individually but I assumed that if the country is banned that they wouldn't be able to compete as a team.

 

[TheCzar]

PCS: Medvedeva, courtesy of her world titles and reputation scores.

TES: Zagitova, who seems to have a much better jump technique. Not to mention that she has a true Lutz, bigger jumps and harder placements. Med tried to backload and it didn't work for her.

Choreography: Despite the cheesiness of Zagitova's baby ballerina act- it is a lot more endearing than Medvedeva's over reaching programs. At the very least, Zagitova's jumps are precisely in tune with the music in Don Quixote, while is stark contrast- Medvedeva as Anna Karenina is befuddling. I found it surprising that she said she found she could relate to Anna- but on what level exactly? Love? Adultery? A Weak Disposition?

SPINS: Neither one is Alissa Csizny.

STEPS: Neither one is Mao Asada. They are both slow but I find Medvedeva marginally palatable.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Oh that's interesting. I knew that the skaters would be able to skate individually but I assumed that if the country is banned that they wouldn't be able to compete as a team.

Hmm..I wouldn’t see why not if they have athletes who have qualified via the same process as in singles events. I guess nothing is official but it would be rather unfortunate if they didn’t have a team.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Until we see Med skate, she is still on top as far as I'm concerned. Zagitova has SP issues and often one or two errors in her FS. If she had been skating clean SP+LP all season then sure I might be more convinced but it's anyone's game and so far while Zagitova is undefeated so far, she is not invulnerable. After all, Medvedeva is undefeated. Between the two I would rather see Medvedeva win as I think her skating is far more refined whereas Zagitova is a re-hash of last year with not much improvement to her overall skating or choreography. But she'd be a worthy silver medalist since none of the other ladies have stepped up technically (although Osmond and Kostner could get it together).

 

[brens78]

I'm on team Evgenia to win gold but remember, one is only as good as their last routine so it's hard to tell!

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Im just saying Costner and Osmond are bigger threat for gold than Zagi is (and i predicted back then Adelina can be the biggest threat for Sochi gold, for the records). My point is we didnt see Caro and Kaetlyn skating their best yet, while we know Zagis scores at her best :think:

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Im just saying Costner and Osmond are bigger threat for gold than Zagi is (and i predicted back then Adelina can be the biggest threat for Sochi gold, for the records). My point is we didnt see Caro and Kaetlyn skating their best yet, while we know Zagis scores at her best :think:

Zag, like Osmond and Kostner, still hasn't skated completely clean in both programs. And with Med back in the picture you know the judges won't be as generous to her, compared to when she's the only Eteri girl there.

I also think Sotskova is coming on strong too and shouldn't be overlooked - I prefer her skating to Zags even though Zag has the tech advantage.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Zag, like Osmond and Kostner, still hasn't skated completely clean in both programs. And with Med back in the picture you know the judges won't be as generous to her, compared to when she's the only Eteri girl there.

I also think Sotskova is coming on strong too and shouldn't be overlooked - I prefer her skating to Zags even though Zag has the tech advantage.

Yeah, im just saying if someone will beat Zhenya, i think it will be Caro or Kaetlyn more probably than Zagi. Just my intuition tho

 

[JayW]

Am I alone to feel that Alina's jumps are quite small, comparable to those of Satoko's? On the other hand, Zhenya's are bigger, though not as big as Kaetlyn's.

 

[NadezhdaNadya]

I like both of them a lot. So I am wondering is there is a chance for two Olympic gold medals and a tie for first place?
In 2002 Winter Olympic Games there was a tie for gold for Figure skating:
Pairs: Elena Berezhnaya and Anton Sikharulidze (RUS) and Jamie Salé and David Pelletier (CAN) both won the gold medal.
Silver medal - not awarded (just as I thought!)
The bronze medal went to Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo (CHN)
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/bc/5f/e3/bc5fe3d32e489d5bcb65c5d5a77adc33.jpg
I know there was a scandal then, but could it happen without a scandal and a drama???

 

[charlotte14]

I think Med will lead the SP and Zagi lead the LP. Total unknown.

 

[kresslia]

Im just saying Costner and Osmond are bigger threat for gold than Zagi is (and i predicted back then Adelina can be the biggest threat for Sochi gold, for the records). My point is we didnt see Caro and Kaetlyn skating their best yet, while we know Zagis scores at her best :think:

As much as I LOVE Kaetlyn and would love for her to win gold, I don't think I've ever even seen a clean LP from her, nvm both SP+LP. And that's what she would need to do to win. If by some miracle she did pull that off, yeah, her scores would be monstrous... but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[charlotte14]

As much as I LOVE Kaetlyn and would love for her to win gold, I don't think I've ever even seen a clean LP from her, nvm both SP+LP. And that's what she would need to do to win. If by some miracle she did pull that off, yeah, her scores would be monstrous... but I'm not holding my breath.

Yeap my coach said if Osmond skated clean back to back she has high chance to win gold but we all know the chance is... LOW.

 

[Procrastinator]

As much as I LOVE Kaetlyn and would love for her to win gold, I don't think I've ever even seen a clean LP from her, nvm both SP+LP. And that's what she would need to do to win. If by some miracle she did pull that off, yeah, her scores would be monstrous... but I'm not holding my breath.

Well, it’ll happen at some point. Sotnikova had an even worse record with free skates. The loop jump is her nemesis. If she gets past it, she may be good to go.

Lots of parallels between Sotnikova and Osmond. Huge jumps, respectable skating skills, compelling and consistent SP, less compelling and inconsistent FS, victim of YouTube harassment, etc.

It may come down to the judging panel. Sochi had four Eastern Europeans who skewer the PCS with lots of 9.75s for Adelina (though, as I’ve argued elsewhere, she might’ve won even without the boost), so if there’s a panel with mostly Asian and North American judges things might look good for Kaetlyn.

It’s hard to know how the behind the scenes lobbying is going with this. Canada is surely pushing for V/M gold but they have to realize that Kaetlyn could easily podium if not win, if a few of those +2s turn into +3s and the 9.25s become 9.75s.