Medvedeva vs Zagitova

[Manitou]

It’s hard to know how the behind the scenes lobbying is going with this. Canada is surely pushing for V/M gold but they have to realize that Kaetlyn could easily podium if not win, if a few of those +2s turn into +3s and the 9.25s become 9.75s.

Why do people even mention Osmond’s name for a bronze? EVERY event outside of Canada this season she was deservedly beaten by Sotskova. She is not a contender for ANY medal. I understand wishful thinking of Canadian fans, but they need to acknowledge reality. It’s the same as talking that “a clean Gold” would beat Medvedeva. There is no such concept a “clean Gold” or “clean Osmond”. We can also imagine that all skaters break their legs and I win Olympics. Yes, it’s mathematically possible.

 

[Katedle]

Why people discuss Kaethlin here? The article is "Medvedeva vs Zagitova".

 

[Katedle]

Olympic Games are so unpredictable, anything can happen. Alina is in better situation than Med, because she is HEALTHY(+naive and also she doesn't have to think about her weight). Stress fracture is very serious problem. It is very easy to get new injury after recovery of this fracture. But what Evgenia has is a very very strong character. She never gives up and has the mind of the champion. But this season is very difficult for her: Injuree+ pressure of gold medal favorite + this situation with neutral flag. If she will deliever clean perfomences at Olympic Games, she will be one of the greatest athletes for me.

 

[Procrastinator]

She was 17.

And really, there's no basis for saying Osmond gets WR if she skates clean.

Who's talking about world records? At this point, anyway, world records are meaningless and the judges will turn +2s into +3s and 9.25s into 9.75s when they want to. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw at least one perfect protocol at these games in one of the disciplines, because the judges have run out room to differentiate the athletes.

And what does age matter? Osmond is in her prime currently, and Kostner's best results occurred well into her 20s.

--

The reason why I've been discussing other skaters in this thread is because the first three pages basically exhausted the whole zagitova v. medvedeva debate (about which we have very few data points), and the assumption underlying this thread is that we are discussing Zagitova v. Medvedeva because we assume one of them will win the OGM, a narrative I wish to complicate by discussing some of the underdogs for the title (Osmond, Kostner, etc.), because I think the sport is more interesting when there are more contenders and we're not just talking about which of two russians is the "anointed" one who is to receive the gold.

There are several reasons for extending the conversation beyond the Russian favorites; As I mentioned before, in recent history, the favorite/front-runner has only won the olympic gold once:
1998 - Tara
2002 - Sarah
2006 - Shizuka
2010 - Yuna (the exception)
2014 - Adelina

Those are my reasons for discussing other skaters here. I have not, in fact, been "brainwashed" by the Canadian media (I'm not even Canadian!), and I could care less who wins the title, provided that everyone is judged fairly and no one is "anointed" the winner.

 

[Manitou]

I guess according to you the podium is 3 Russians, all set.

Now you are talking about my wishful thinking. Which is actually the most realistic from all wishful thinkings.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Now you are talking about my wishful thinking. Which is actually the most realistic from all wishful thinkings.

"Realistic wishful thinking" vs "imaginary reality"? :think:

Isn't it :whack: vs :whack:?

 

[college pat]

both evgenia and alina are the odds on to win/medal at the olympics if they go.
however i can see a scenario where ashley, karen, gabriella, kaetlyn, carolyn, elizabeth tsury , korean lady could possible win.

but with the consistency of evgenia and /or alina it would be hard .

all the women skaters would have to skate 2 clean very best programs in the short, free and quite possible in the team event.

 

[moriel]

In my opinion, IF Osmond can skate a clean short and a clean long program, she will take it all. May the skating Gods be watching over her. The Russian girls are great but can't beat a clean Osmond. Now listen, this all depends on IF...lol

Clean Medvedeva:
SP: 80 (79.99 at GPF, 80.75 at Rostelecom)
FS: 154 (154 Worlds, 151 Europeans, 150 Rostelecom with a fall)

Clean Osmond:
SP: 77 (77.04 at GPF, 76.06 at SC)
FS: 77 TES + 75 PCS = 152

(math for FS) 3 major competitions in 2017-18
SC 66 + 72
France 68 + 70
GPF 67 + 73
So PCs: 73 + 2 for clean performance

TES: i´ll use france as reference. She got 68 there, with mistakes:
2A+3T -0.6 GOE - she got 1.7 GOE for in in Canada, so she gets extra +2.3 on that
LSp3 - she can get extra +0.3 on a LSp4 (as she did in canada)
3Lo -2 GOE (fall) - she gets extra +3.6 for it if clean (as in canada)
1A - she got 1.38 for it in france, but could get something like 4.25 for a 2A, so +2.1 on TES.
So her TES would be 68 + 8.3 (lets make it 9)

My conclusions: a clean Osmond loses 2-3 points in SP, and 2-3 points in FS for a clean Medvedeva.
So no, a clean Osmond cannot beat a clean Medvedeva. Russian girls are good enough

Also, looking at Zagitova, chances are a clean Zagitova can beat a clean Osmond too, and Zagitova has better chances of going clean

 

[russianfan]

latest tendency is that any thread can randomly turn into a canadians hate fest

To the topic:
I think the only jumps where Zhenya might be better than Alina are 3T and 3S. Alina is obviously better at any other jump. Alina is also better at spins. But PCS is definitely where Zhenya shines, i watched her FS recently and difference is noticeable, she doesn't lose speed at all at any point of her program.

 

[ejnsofi]

latest tendency is that any thread can randomly turn into a canadians hate fest

To the topic:
I think the only jumps where Zhenya might be better than Alina are 3T and 3S. Alina is obviously better at any other jump. Alina is also better at spins. But PCS is definitely where Zhenya shines, i watched her FS recently and difference is noticeable, she doesn't lose speed at all at any point of her program.

I think that Zhenya's solo Loop might be better or equal to Alina's. Also Alina might have better flexibility and spin elements (good illusion, oh yeah ) but Zhenya changes her positions smoother than Alina

 

[jenaj]

Three Russians on the podium is unlikely because of politics. Osmond could win a medal (bronze, most likely). So could Carolina or Satoko or even Ashley. Or Gabrielle. The stars have to align for some skaters, but it has happened--Sarah Hughes. And at the Olympics, there are other factors at play because the judges know the whole world is watching. Sometimes the combination of the skater's performance and the crowd's reaction make a difference--Tara Lipinski, Sotnikova. As for Zag and Med, I think Zag could win. But so could Med. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Shayuki]

Zhenya's Salchow really is much better than Zagitova's. But that probably is where it starts as well as ends.

However, she has some crazy transitions in and out of the jumps done with higher quality than Zagitova. That might give her some GOE.

 

[MiRé]

Alina by far. The only reason Med is currently leading is because Med isn’t getting dinnged for her obvious flutz. It’s rather pathetic the judges arent giving an e for that ugly flutz

 

[andromache]

The Olympics are weird and weird results happen. The math of the previous results doesn't matter anymore.

I'm not saying wrong results - but the emotion of an arena or an event does affect the scores. Just look at Adelina. Would anybody have anticipated that she'd beat not only a clean Yuna, but a clean Carolina too?

At the same time, the Olympics can also be a coronation for the obvious favorite. Yuna's lead over Mao was way too high in 2010, but that was the emotion / enthusiasm of the judges. Evgenia should be entering these Olympics like Yuna was in 2010, but the injury has changed things somewhat. If she competes at Euros and makes a mistake or loses to Alina, she's no longer unbeatable, and the judges will stop scoring her like she's unbeatable.

Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa are two ladies who remained under-the-radar during epic face-offs (Michelle v Irina and Sasha v Irina) and managed to win.

I'm open to just about anything. (But gosh, I will be soooooo personally disappointed if Alina wins. I'm just saying. The skating skills and interpretation are lacking - she's technically stunning but the ballerina princess shtick feels generic and inauthentic.)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The Olympics are weird and weird results happen. The math of the previous results doesn't matter anymore.

This. The judges have tended to score skaters a lot closer in PCS at the Olympics, so it's usually the technical score that decides everything. However, there's such a gap between Evgenia/Alina and the rest of the field in base value that even matching the PCS of those two will leave a skater well behind. Anyone who hits two perfect programs will have a shot at gold, as Alina and Evgenia usually get +1 or +2 for their clean jumping passes and that leaves a little room above. It's highly unlikely, though, because Kaetlyn and Carolina probably won't land 7 high quality triples in the LP, and Satoko probably won't get enough GOE on the jumps to catch the Russians if they're clean.

 

[millie]

A clean Osmond was supposed to win, right? Assuming clean Medvedeva, that means Osmond needs a WR to win.

Really, what tangible advantage that is actually reflected in points would a clean Osmond even have over clean Medvedeva? Osmond frequently has clean SPs yet she still hasn't scored as high as Medvedeva has on it.

With the Olympics, it doesn't really matter what happened before...Over the past Olympics, the one most likely to win, did not. It seems every time a skater pulled something out of a hat and shocked everyone. All it means that on that particular ice surface that particular time, a skater that has nothing to lose, pulls it out of the hat. I think that it is wishful thinking that the Russians will make a clean sweep. Don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch..lol..

 

[Anyasnake]

This. The judges have tended to score skaters a lot closer in PCS at the Olympics, so it's usually the technical score that decides everything.

Very true. Also one of the reason why people are losing interest in the sport.
Some people will say : "It's a sport". Of course - but there is so much more to that, otherwise, let's skate in practice outfits and not have programs, only jumps jumps jumps (and spins, because why not).

I like Alina, I even wanted her to win the GPF to spice up the competition. But if I had to rewatch programs, I'd go for Kaetlyn SP or Carolina FP.

I find Evgenia very sharp and Alina more fluid. Evgenia knows how to use her sharpness, Alina doesn't use her qualities enough yet, it shows and should be reflected on PCS. But that might not be the case. She got 151 in France with 69 PCS, imagine her scores with a 73-74 PCS.
Alina has a ton of momentum, it's going to be hard to stop her, only a healthy Evgenia can do that (or a very nervous Alina, choking a bit under pressure).

At Nagano who did you prefer ? The very young yet mature artistic Michelle, or the very powerful Tara with the big jumps ?
(Disclaimer : I have no opinion, I was a kid when it happenned but it seems like a proper comparaison maybe ?)

 

[bramweld]

Very true. Also one of the reason why people are losing interest in the sport.
Some people will say : "It's a sport". Of course - but there is so much more to that, otherwise, let's skate in practice outfits and not have programs, only jumps jumps jumps (and spins, because why not).

I like Alina, I even wanted her to win the GPF to spice up the competition. But if I had to rewatch programs, I'd go for Kaetlyn SP or Carolina FP.

I find Evgenia very sharp and Alina more fluid. Evgenia knows how to use her sharpness, Alina doesn't use her qualities enough yet, it shows and should be reflected on PCS. But that might not be the case. She got 151 in France with 69 PCS, imagine her scores with a 73-74 PCS.
Alina has a ton of momentum, it's going to be hard to stop her, only a healthy Evgenia can do that (or a very nervous Alina, choking a bit under pressure).

At Nagano who did you prefer ? The very young yet mature artistic Michelle, or the very powerful Tara with the big jumps ?
(Disclaimer : I have no opinion, I was a kid when it happenned but it seems like a proper comparaison maybe ?)

Zhenya has more polish and finesse. Zagitova, is more powerful and youthful. I prefer Zhenya, but I'm curious to see her form come Europeans in Moscow.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I find Evgenia very sharp and Alina more fluid. Evgenia knows how to use her sharpness, Alina doesn't use her qualities enough yet, it shows and should be reflected on PCS. But that might not be the case. She got 151 in France with 69 PCS, imagine her scores with a 73-74 PCS.
Alina has a ton of momentum, it's going to be hard to stop her, only a healthy Evgenia can do that (or a very nervous Alina, choking a bit under pressure).

At Nagano who did you prefer ? The very young yet mature artistic Michelle, or the very powerful Tara with the big jumps ?
(Disclaimer : I have no opinion, I was a kid when it happenned but it seems like a proper comparaison maybe ?)

With Evgenia vs Alina, I do think Evgenia deserves higher PCS. It's never clear to me how much higher because the difference has to be measured in light of technical elements. Is Evgenia one 3F better than Alina, or one 2A, or one spin? Personally, I always like seeing the most athletic skaters win (assuming they have decent artistry and skating ability). But comparing these two is hard because, while Alina has a higher base value, Evgenia is the one who does two 3-3's, and that difficulty is not reflected in the base value.

I was kind of indifferent about the Nagano result. Tara had more difficulty but her jump landings always looked shaky to me. Kwan was tight and I thought performed much better at Nationals. It could have gone either way.

 

[Procrastinator]

Another thing I wanna discuss: does anyone think Medvedeva has deteriorated?

Looking back at her Boston FS, it was so fast and crisp and smooth in its transitions. A year later, her body line seemed lankier/less fluid and the skating skills more forced/edges less deep.

I think the judges should get more comfortable with using the range of the scores, which only happens every once in a while.

I think I’d score Med as follows:
SS 8.75
TR 9.50
PE 9.50 (for a standard clean routine)
CH 9.25 for SP, 8.50 for FS
IN 9.25 for SP, 8.50 for FS (I’m sure this is blasphemy, but remember: score in the 8s still is “excellent”)

Alina:
SS 8.25
TR 8.50
PE: 9.25
CH: 9.00
IN: 8.50

In the heat of the Olympics, though, I’d probably go .25-.50 higher for Zagitova.